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Here's an enlightening David Lammy speech
I'd don't think they're thick, I think some of them are arseholes, some of them are racists but the majority of them have been duped and sold a pack of lies, and the ones who've since realised this are too embarassed to admit it.
Trying to claim that Brexit is an existential threat to our NHS when we’ve watched the creeping privatisation for years (during EU membership) doesn’t make sense to me.
Even granting you the (slight) strawman*, your claim of ‘nonsense’ seems to rest on a few assumptions:
1. There was no pre-Referendum objection/concern to ‘creeping privatisation’ of the NHS
2. Brexit is a similar ‘creeping’ timeline with identical barriers/protections in place both before and after departure from the EU
3. The ‘NHS Bus’ of the Leave Campaign was as transparent as our trust in this ‘Brexit Government’ to whom we’re trusting our future.
4. They promised to ‘keep the NHS off the table‘. They’re are seeming to be doing the opposite but we should trust them.
* I did suggest a page or so back that the NHS deserves a separate thread. But I won’t pretend at all that the NHS hasn’t been used as a football by both ‘sides’. (Argh, what happened to us) in the Brexit campaign and subsequent dialogue. I’m still more concerned what is happening/likely to happen to our healthcare because of Brexit. Far more concerned than I am about the possibility of Bulgaria joining the EU. But you seem to see acting upon the latter by hard-severing our EU membership and sailing off with no plan except ‘trust Johnson’ as somehow less ‘hysterical’ than worrying about the ramifications of a post-Brexit golf-sale. Why is that?
Just listened to Barnier (again) and I am even more convinced of two things:
1. Johnson is pursuing No Deal as an active strategy.
2. The EU just want us to piss off if we don't grow up.
What a shitshow.
I work in a Pharma company which exports to the US and EU markets, we already abide by all necessary regs for both markets, so what changes apart from having an office in an EU state? Which we already have.
How do you certify that your products are safe and legitimate to sell?
The concensus here is that the UK gov. is capable of a deep conspiracy against the population, but of course the EU bloc is incapable of that as it is a shining utopia.
This is (another) leave lie intended to make remainers look bad.
I would hazard that there are few if any posting on here on either side of the argument that believe the EU is perfect. It's widely accepted that changes need to happen, only you've robbed us of our ability to to anything about it.
And in any case, even if the EU was the devil incarnate that you seem to think it is, just leaving without checks and balances in place to replace what we're giving up is a Really Bad Idea. Doubly so when we were in a recession to start with and exponentially so in the middle of a goddamn global pandemic.
I mean, does that not ring alarm bells in your head even? Most leavers I've spoken with now begrudgingly admit that there will be "short term" pain (short term being about 20 years by my best guess but let's not mind that just now). We're still flag-waving our way towards the cliff edge with no whiff of a suggestion of postponing it when a month ago I almost had to resort to wiping my arse on the cat? Even if you think leaving is a good idea, do you think leaving at this moment in time is a good idea? Why aren't they knocking it back?
I would hazard that there are few if any posting on here on either side of the argument that believe the EU is perfect. It’s widely accepted that changes need to happen, only you’ve robbed us of our ability to to anything about it.
Exactly this. Reminds me that I recently lost touch with my Most Brexity Chum (in real life) to extremism. After last GE (and on Xmas Day) he began ranting at his family, future in-laws, friends etc that ‘anyone who didn’t vote Brexit should leave this this ****ing Country because you Remainers don’t care what happens to your own ****ing Country’
The episode reminded me sharply that although I could see and understand his reasons and care for leaving the EU (Won’t repeat them here, they wouldn’t pass the swear filter anyway) he could not find it in himself to imagine that certain among his friends and family also cared deeply about this country and for that reason didn’t trust that Brexit or Johnson was at such a time ‘Best for Britain’.
The horrible irony is that now I DO want very much to leave Britain in light of what is happening. But my Brexit chum has burned the very same bridge that he wants to kick me across.
Thats the crux of it for me, I only see the EU progressing towards a federal state, one made up of many incompatible countries, this was a chance to step out.
Cougar - I agree we should be stalling due to Covid.
I dont think the EU is devil incarnate, but why get deeper into it only to have to leave at an even more entangled stage?
I agree on your point about the increasing federaliation of the EU - one of my reasons for voting remain was that a strong, skeptical UK within the EU (and with a veto) could prevent that.
Now it will happen on our doorstep whether we like it or not.
one made up of many incompatible countries, this was a chance to step out
Well, if the result of what is being done, thanks to your vote, is more people seeing the UK in the same way, and the eventual splitting up of our union, you’d better be preparing for that outcome over there.
I would hazard that there are few if any posting on here on either side of the argument that believe the EU is perfect. It’s widely accepted that changes need to happen, only you’ve robbed us of our ability to to anything about it.
And in any case, even if the EU was the devil incarnate that you seem to think it is, just leaving without checks and balances in place to replace what we’re giving up is a Really Bad Idea. Doubly so when we were in a recession to start with and exponentially so in the middle of a goddamn global pandemic.
I mean, does that not ring alarm bells in your head even? Most leavers I’ve spoken with now begrudgingly admit that there will be “short term” pain (short term being about 20 years by my best guess but let’s not mind that just now). We’re still flag-waving our way towards the cliff edge with no whiff of a suggestion of postponing it when a month ago I almost had to resort to wiping my arse on the cat? Even if you think leaving is a good idea, do you think leaving at this moment in time is a good idea? Why aren’t they knocking it back?
This ^^^^^.
I agree on your point about the increasing federaliation of the EU – one of my reasons for voting remain was that a strong, skeptical UK within the EU (and with a veto) could prevent that.
Quite.
A lot of the leave narrative, especially from Leave.EU, was along the lines of "the EU is planning [whatever], we're better off out!" Even if it wasn't all a pack of lies, to my mind these would all have been compelling reasons to stay in, so we could prevent [whatever] from happening.
But of course, it was presented as "problem ➡ solution" so that's what people did, in droves. Aside from critical thinking failure,* I expect many voters at the time didn't know that we had that sort of power.
(* I don't mean this pejoratively, it's simply a skill not everyone is very good at)
@Malvern Rider. You make some good points and I’m not really arguing with any of them (except that Bulgaria is already part of the EU). I’m certainly not claiming to trust anybody. Least of all our current UK government (who I didn’t vote for either). Just privatisation of the NHS isn’t a binary thing (better to call it involvement of the private sector in the NHS) and happened while we were members of the EU anyway. I agree that a trade deal with the USA presents another threat (if you think increased involvement by the private sector is a bad thing of course) but it is up to our elected representatives to deal with that risk and up to us to hold them to account if they make a mess of it.
I don’t mind the argument that Brexit “may” lead to more private sector involvement in the NHS. I just don’t like the simplistic “they’re going to sell our NHS to the Americans” argument. As if successive governments hadn’t already encouraged private sector involvement.
As a species we've always sought simple answers to complicated questions.
The irony that I've just typed that on a brexit thread is not lost on me.
Just listened to Barnier (again) and I am even more convinced of two things:
1. Johnson is pursuing No Deal as an active strategy.
2. The EU just want us to piss off if we don’t grow up.What a shitshow.
Johnson does seem to be lining up no deal. But what I don't get is how does he play that out? It will be an immediate disaster as opposed to a slow death by a thousand cuts that we would get in a deal. I don't think he would last 6 months if we go down that route as there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it. Still not 100% convinced that he wont do a deal at the last minute and use the fact that we didn't 'no deal' as a positive i.e. you need to like this shit deal as its better than no deal. The ERG will lose their shit so does he just hard ball them? Is that worse than the moderates who would lose their shit if we no deal? We have no idea how the numbers break down in the tory party over this issue....I guess we will find out.
As for the EU - they are playing the long game, maximum avoidance of blame. They know how brexiteers operate.
I don’t think he would last 6 months if we go down that route as there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it.
Reverse what exactly?
I was involved in the development, negotiation and implemtation of Government contracts for 20+ years - if I had any confidence in the Civil Service's ability to do their job effectively, getting commercial contractors involved in the NHS could be a good thing. However, based on experience it will probably turn out bad - little understanding of their cost base, appalling ability to even know what it is they want, to specify it clearly and then stick to it and then to create a contract that does all that effectively. Add on top the bureaucracy, arcane treasury rules and the "long-screw-drivering" by officials pandering to politicians and inevitably you have a recipe for disaster.
one of my reasons for voting remain was that a strong, skeptical UK within the EU (and with a veto) could prevent that.
Unfortunately Cameron wanted to park us firmly within the EU which got a lot of sceptics like myself annoyed. Also that strong veto didn't halt the expansion of the EU now did it (we didn't use it)? We now have the great contributors, bulgaria and romania as cheap labour.
I meant to say Turkey! Thanks.
I agree that simplistic slogans have damaged the dialogue and can be misleadng. From the beginning (ie pretty much the entire Leave Campaign, IIRC?)
Saying that, it’s also pretty difficult to convey Immediately Pressing Concerns in short form without jumping to the ‘Feared Ultimate Conclusion If We Take This Course’
The catchy slogans ‘Save the NHS before it exists in name only/has it’s assets sold to foreign interests/ becomes illegal/too expensive to save’ don’t really equate with your and Dougie’s more ‘sensible’ conflation of ‘get out of the EU before
The way I see it is that organs, assets and data of the NHS is simply part of the post-Brexit guaranteed golf sale. General privatisation is probably saved best for another thread. It does right now all go hand-in-hand with what is hapoened right now and time is short.
Brexit does have a number of immediate effects on our NHS.
Three important ones:
1. Staffing
Currently, the NHS is understaffed by more than 100,000 positions. This figure reflects posts from across the multidisciplinary team – nurses, doctors, physiotherapists, dieticians, technicians, administrative staff, managers and carers – to name but a few. With vacancies available for these positions, international recruitment is key and changes in immigration policies following Brexit may mean these positions remain unfilled.
Not only does this take opportunities away from aspiring professionals, but those who remain must manage the burden of a second or even third role. Burnout will be on the rise and in an already time-constrained environment, so will human error. This poses a massive risk to the patient’s quality of care and therefore additionally, their safety.
Did you know that 62,000 of England’s NHS workforce are EU nationals?
2. Accessing Treatment Internationally
Currently UK citizens have access to treatment within the EU and vice versa for EU citizens. European Health Insurance cards (EHIC) allow for this with over 27 million currently in possession of a card.
Without this insurance, the cost would fall down to the individual and the need for private insurance could be mandatory. As with many other concepts of Brexit, it remains uncertain as to whether current UK/EU citizens would be charged for services.
3. Funding
Given the Prime Minister’s proposition to contribute over £1 billion to the NHS and the requirement for GP rationing of specialist referrals, it comes as no surprise that the NHS is already under great financial burden. The UK’s future trading relationships are unclear and ultimately contribute to the UK’s economic status.
In line with this logic, it is uncertain as to how leaving the European Union will affect the NHS. If our economy takes a hit, the government may be forced to cut public service spending meaning more hospital specialities closing and removing out of hours services.
Secondary effects are huge; waiting times are increasing due to shortage of staff and the quality of personalised care may be impacted in an attempt to maintain what remains of a squeezed and highly pressured health system.
I ask you as an agnostic (‘nothing can be known‘) and Dougie as a Brexiter (act now, assess later) what assurances do we have that Britain’s healthcare will be better now we left the EU? And by that I mean Funding, staffing and accessing treatment internationally?
Johnson does seem to be lining up no deal. But what I don’t get is how does he play that out?
I'm fully expecting a resignation and a Christmas GE.
I said this way back on The Other Thread. There is one thing and only one thing that Boris cares about, and that is Boris. There is no way that man will go down with the ship, I've more chance of growing a second willy. If we do indeed end up crashing out, by that point Boris will have deployed an SEP field and will be somewhere sunny with his pal Callmedave cracking open their third bottle of Bolly.
I can't remember who this quote is attributable to but, "Boris is the sort of man who will wait to see which way everyone is running, then jump in front of them shouting 'follow me!'"
there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it.
No there wouldn't. There would be mass denial that the problem had anything to do with brexit, and that they knew there'd be a short term hit and it was a price worth paying. Then it would be the EU's fault for punishing is, and then they'd blame it all on remainers for sabotaging it.
Haven't you seen how this works yet? They're never wrong, and it's never their fault.
Also that strong veto didn’t halt the expansion of the EU now did it?
Okay, I'm sorry... but you're being wilfully ignorant now.
Sorry why? Is there doubt that the EU has continued to expand? Have we voted against this expansion?
Why would we vote against something we instigated?
Also that strong veto didn’t halt the expansion of the EU now did it? We now have the great contributors, bulgaria and romania as cheap labour.
Vetos only work if we choose to use them. One would assume that we chose not to in this case.
You're still labouring under this "us and them" concept. One tenth of the EU Parliament was made up of UK MEPs. All these decisions you're pulling your face about, the ones that aren't fictional at any rate, WE voted in favour of. We very rarely lose votes, it's something like 50 out of thousands.
And in any case, so what? Why do you even care? Did it greatly affect your life? Did you wake up one morning and find your wages had dropped 30% because a couple of tiny countries 2,000 miles away had been accepted into the EU? Christ man, did our membership of the EU affect your life negatively in any way whatsoever?
As reasons go for defending potentially crashing the country's economy, having a bonfire of standards and human rights laws and making us the laughing stock of the world, "Bulgaria joined our political union 13 years ago" is bullshit of the highest order.
I’m fully expecting a resignation and a Christmas GE.
I said this way back on The Other Thread. There is one thing and only one thing that Boris cares about, and that is Boris. There is no way that man will go down with the ship, I’ve more chance of growing a second willy. If we do indeed end up crashing out, by that point Boris will have deployed an SEP field and will be somewhere sunny with his pal Callmedave cracking open their third bottle of Bolly.
I can’t remember who this quote is attributable to but, “Boris is the sort of man who will wait to see which way everyone is running, then jump in front of them shouting ‘follow me!'”
there would be an immediate clamour to reverse it.
No there wouldn’t. There would be mass denial that the problem had anything to do with brexit, and that they knew there’d be a short term hit and it was a price worth paying. Then it would be the EU’s fault for punishing is, and then they’d blame it all on remainers for sabotaging it.
Haven’t you seen how this works yet? They’re never wrong, and it’s never their fault.
I doubt the tories would want a GE- what could they gain from it? But they will be in a massive hole and they will need a ladder.
As for the last bit - at some point it wont wash. There will be chaos at every major port and no shortage of small and medium sized businesses finding they just can't get stuff they need or they have to pay tariffs that wipe out margins and it will be pretty hard not to see it for what it is. I genuinely can't see how Johnson plays that out, even with a deal it will be a shit show. Without one he has zero chance of survival.
And what do the tories do next? They are a single issue party. When that issue turns into a nightmare where can they go?
Ah, here:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-often-is-the-uk-outvoted-in-brussels/
Since 1999, when legislative records became available to the public for the first time in an accessible format, the UK has voted “no” to legislation on 57 occasions. It has voted “yes” 2,474 times and abstained from voting 70 times.
(Votes on legislation that isn't passed is not recorded.)
I doubt the tories would want a GE- what could they gain from it? But they will be in a massive hole and they will need a ladder.
Perhaps a GE is a reach, but a leadership change fo sho. Boris will be hailed as the great man who "got brexit done" and the shitshow that follows, that'll be some other poor scmuck's fault. Probably either Gove or Grailing, the former's had it coming for years and the latter stupid enough to take the fall.
As for the last bit – at some point it wont wash.
You'd think so, wouldn't you. I've been hoping for that to be the case for a few years now, and yet here we are.
When that issue turns into a nightmare where can they go?
Be the party that "gets us through" the "necessary but difficult transition" to a "free and independent country". This Vote Leave team will try, and I predict succeed, to paint themselves as the "only ones prepared to take the hard decisions required during these times of change".
You’d think so, wouldn’t you. I’ve been hoping for that to be the case for a few years now, and yet here we are.
The one thing with brexit is that when you give a clear detailed picture of what it could look like i.e. no deal or a soft deal - people hate it. They love the big idea, the detail stinks. So far we have not yet seen the detail in any solid form. In fact it would seem that the government are going to extreme lengths to delay any physical sign of it happening (to the extent we will end up getting sued for failing to implement proper customs controls in 2021).
Brexit is only just beginning.
*edit (sorry)
The catchy slogans ‘Save the NHS before it exists in name only/has it’s assets sold to foreign interests/becomes illegal/too expensive to save’ don’t really equate with your and Dougie’s more ‘sensible’ conflation of ‘get out of the EU come what may before it mutates into a Superstate)
Be the party that “gets us through” the “necessary but difficult transition” to a “free and independent country”. This Vote Leave team will try, and I predict succeed, to paint themselves as the “only ones prepared to take the hard decisions required during these times of change”.
But what if its administrative * up after * up on top of job loses and general economic decline. What if people are sick of it after a couple of months. What then? Do they just plough on for 3 years insisting this is what we all voted for and offer nothing different at the next GE?
The most competent politicians would really struggle with this - the current lot are far from competent.
insisting this is what we all voted for and offer nothing different at the next GE?
“only we can finish this… now is not the time for faint hearts… don’t talk the UK down” etc.
Were can the Tories go ? Hopefully oblivion
There is a huge .misunderstanding here. The Tory party as we knew it is no more. It has become a far right group run by people who do not care about the country or the party. All they want is to get out of the EU
@Malvern Rider. I doubt we really disagree on much. I’m mostly posting the counter arguments as I want to hear them aired. And there are always counter arguments of course. Your point on NHS staffing is a good one, but could you not also argue that for too long the NHS has relied on other (often poorer) countries to train its staff? Is it not time that we paid to train enough doctors, nurses, AHPs etc to staff our own NHS? I don’t see a shortage of applicants, mainly a shortage of training places. I’d agree this probably isn’t the thread for that discussion though.
Were can the Tories go ? Hopefully oblivion
There is a huge .misunderstanding here. The Tory party as we knew it is no more. It has become a far right group run by people who do not care about the country or the party. All they want is to get out of the EU
They are an single issue party now. They exist to get brexit done...
Or does 'get brexit done' exist to get a certain element of tories in to power?
Either way - how much political capital is being burned in pushing this single issue. It inevitably will be a disaster - what do they do then? The GOP have the same issue with Trump. They have a burn it all down candidate who has been in power now for 4 years and there is nothing left to burn. Where do they go post Trump? Was it wrong to burn it or do we keep looking for things to burn?
uwe-r
MemberThe one thing with brexit is that when you give a clear detailed picture of what it could look like i.e. no deal or a soft deal – people hate it. They love the big idea, the detail stinks.
And closely linked to that, that in order to gain enough support to get it through, everything was promised, whether possible or impossible, and regardless of contradictions. So there was never a majority for any real, possible brexit, let alone a majority for whatever actual brexit arrives.
there is nothing left to burn
You're applying a reasonableness filter here... there is nothing left for a sane administration to burn, if the people in it care about the damage done above the power they want. Now remove that filter... think about what would happen if an unreasonable power hungry sociopath was at the helm, with not a care about the damage done, and willing to burn the unthinkable.
They love the big idea, the detail stinks.
And yet again, history is here to help.
If the defining lesson of the 20th Century wasn't "Beware of men who sell big ideas" then I don't know what was.
And yet here we are. The most interconnected and the having the most ability of any generation to inform ourselves. And we've got populist bullshitters and crooks harnessing that connectivity to play people's own prejudices back to them as 'fact' and they are too unaware of what really goes on.
News? Isn't that just something that pops up in between posts from some pillock acquaintance showing photos of every meal they ever order in a restaurant?
We should be the most politically aware and empowered generation ever. And when Mr Berners-Lee gave us one of the greatest inventions and resources ever, what did we do?
Fill it up with grumble, lies and gossip.
If an alien ever did land on Earth and was unfortunate enough to end up in the UK, I reckon they'd jump back in their spaceship and get the hell out of Dodge.
that for too long the NHS has relied on other (often poorer) countries to train its staff? Is it not time that we paid to train enough doctors, nurses, AHPs etc to staff our own NHS?
We can spend tens of thousands of pounds and several years to train up a doctor or a nurse, or we can import a fully trained one for free tomorrow. Where's the sense in that beyond the "coming over here and takin are jobs" argument? The NHS is hardly known for having too much spare cash.
A lack of home-grown skills is precisely why we have immigration in the first place. Of course, paying NHS staff properly might make it more attractive as a career choice, but that's dragging us into a bigger argument.
A lack of home-grown skills is precisely why we have immigration in the first place.
There's also the issue that [ dons flack jacket ] smart people often want experiences working abroad... stupid people less so... and we want smart people working in the NHS. Same goes for any industry reliant on bright people... film, finance, music, IT.... whatever... don't stop people from moving if you want/need smart people working in that field in your country.
Some more thoughts on No Deal…
Please feel free to contribute something contradictory about the path we are now on, to avoid that echo chamber feeling, and give us some much needed positive news. Thanks.
Please feel free to contribute something contradictory about the path we are now on, to avoid that echo chamber feeling, and give us some much needed positive news. Thanks.
Listening to Barnier at lunchtime was depressing. Brexies will have me believe that I was either listening to the mother of all negotiating ploys by those sneaky Europeans. Or that I was listening to a deranged senior figure in some federal European cult that is fuming because plucky old Britain has stood up to their bullying. Which is bollocks. On both counts.
I don't think he's particularly angry either. Just cheesed off that he has to go through the motions time after time with the international equivalent of a small child that deliberately shat its pants in a mardy and is now sat in shitty pants demanding to be cleaned up AND then get it's own way.
And much as I love to mock the redneck Americans who luuuuuurve Trump, at least they made the focus of their infant racist/xenophobic tantrum something that could be largely reversed after four years. I mean, who'd be stupid enough to have their childish tantrum expressed via something irreversible?
Johnson will fold in December
he caved at the last minute in the WA negotiations, he will do exactly that again
there will be some small compromises on state aid & fisheries- an independent review every few years? enough that he can sell it to the RW press (wjhere last time they haled is genius at getting the WA reopened & ignored that the changes he made were a humiliation for the UK)
Even without covid it would be the height of economic self-harm to leave without one
Youve seen the panic as Johnson has finaly realised that he's losing SCotland, leaving with No Deal would be a boon to Sturgeon
Johnson will fold in December
How do you get a trade deal ratified over Christmas and in place for the New Year, in accordance with the rules of the EU & WTO... and how and when do businesses and individuals get ready for it?
Johnson will fold in December
he caved at the last minute in the WA negotiations, he will do exactly that again
God knows, I hope so.
Then, hopefully, it will be militant Brexity gammons chasing him down Whitehall in his socks.
Saves the grownups having to make the trip.
Johnson will fold in December
he caved at the last minute in the WA negotiations, he will do exactly that again
there will be some small compromises on state aid & fisheries- an independent review every few years? enough that he can sell it to the RW press (wjhere last time they haled is genius at getting the WA reopened & ignored that the changes he made were a humiliation for the UK)
Even without covid it would be the height of economic self-harm to leave without one
Youve seen the panic as Johnson has finaly realised that he’s losing SCotland, leaving with No Deal would be a boon to Sturgeon
As I said before - I don't think he can survive no deal. In a war games type scenario planning exercise I would suggest his best bet is to do as you say. A last minute deal that he can sell as a great victory. It wont be - it will be shit but slightly less shit than no deal.
What is difficult to gauge is how this goes down with the headbangers in his own party! No deal works better for party unity but the clear and obvious disaster that would ensue would lead to external pressure and it would see him done in. Doing a deal eases external pressure and he can bang on about doing things no-one thought he would (blah blah blah). But the headbangers would go ape shit with almost any compromise - does he just see them off? Do any of them resign over it (if yes how many)?
In a war games type scenario planning exercise
And I'll bet Cum Dommings gets a raging stiffy every time those words are uttered.
How do you get a trade deal ratified over Christmas and in place for the New Year, in accordance with the rules of the EU & WTO… and how and when do businesses and individuals get ready for it?
some sort of staggered transition
a mess, but I think most businesses have long since realised that the government arent there to help them on this
What is difficult to gauge is how this goes down with the headbangers in his own party!
It's what happens when you tell different lies to everyone you need on-side. Eventually someone loses their patience and does you over.
Businesses have had 4 years to prepare for “it”, whatever “it” turns out to be. What more do they want?
Then, hopefully, it will be militant Brexity gammons chasing him down Whitehall in his socks.
Saves the grownups having to make the trip.
nah press will sell it as a victory again
brexiters dont actually care what happens to fishing industry or state aid rules, they just want to be old its all red white & blue, tickety-boo
No deal is Johnson aim. He has o intention of making a deal. No deal allows him to blame the EU
We have a strong currency which we can control
A strong economy which we can control
A strong trade deficit with non-EU countries which makes up over half of our economy which we can build on.
Oh and likely a reasonable deal with the EU
There's my slice of optimism for the echo chamber.
What more do they want?
Businesses in the EEA not to just shut their doors on them at the end of 2020, with a message saying... "come back when we all know how this is going to work".
Oh and likely a reasonable deal with the EU
Sweet. Flesh that out for us, please. Does it look anything like any of the options in the (Conservative) government document detailing possible replacement deals from before the referendum that I posted... or anything like the new deal Vote Leave were proposing we'd get back in 2016, they one they said we'd get agreed before starting the process of leaving the EU? What will it cover? What does "reasonable" mean... anything at all? Why are there Conservative MPs singing the praises of operating on WTO rules again... are they bluffing?
Businesses have had 4 years to prepare for “it”, whatever “it” turns out to be. What more do they want?
Not sure if serious...?
As I said before – I don’t think he can survive no deal. In a war games type scenario planning exercise I would suggest his best bet is to do as you say. A last minute deal that he can sell as a great victory. It wont be – it will be shit but slightly less shit than no deal.
I think its the reason he has to do it the very last minute, so none can query its shitness and it buys him a little more time.
What did the Govester say, middle of 2021 till we can implement our border checks and Liz's letter on the trade negotiations front, fabulous.
I think they’ll be a thin, time limited, deal of some kind in December as well… and many years of UK businesses not really knowing what is just around the next corner.
Businesses have had 4 years to prepare for “it”, whatever “it” turns out to be. What more do they want?
Not sure if serious…?
It's a fair assessment thou, once your realise the people running the country are actually insane you make preparations to safeguard your livelihood 🙂
Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.
We will have some sort of deal with the EU and I will admit that TJ told me so if we don't.
So long and thanks for all the fish.
half the economy will carry on as normal
It won’t be nearly that bad, surely?
Anyway… “What are you moaning about man, you’ve always got the other leg! Now hold still so I can get sawing…”
What did the Govester say, middle of 2021 till we can implement our border checks and Liz’s letter on the trade negotiations front, fabulous.
Yeah its been confirmed that weve given up all pretence of controlling our borders until then
Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.
just half our exporters shafted, result!
No, as I said we will have a deal on the EU side.
And what does that deal look like? If it doesn’t mean new restrictions and barriers to trade in Jan compared to Dec I’ll eat my chocolate hat. If it means a better deal than the one we’ve voluntarily given up, as was promised, I’ll start thanking you and others who voted for it.
Half? Really? What’s the actual ratio of EU/covered by an EU Trade Deal to non EU trade?
even with a deal EU trading business will have to pay an extra £13bn for the extra red-tape according to Govey
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-brexit-border-checks-to-cost-businesses-13-billion-3r5w8hhxk
massive win!
Anyway… “What are you moaning about man, you’ve always got the other leg! Now hold still so I can get sawing…”
Now, about that arse-kicking competition....
Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.
Well, the small fraction that isn't either with the EU or covered by an EU trade agreement that we won't have access to anymore. Apart from that all tickety-boo.
I speak as the brother and son of two small business owners who presently conduct global transactions who are currently terrified because they understand how it works. The people who don't (like you) who blithely demonstrate their ignorance by saying and believing horseshit like that are the reason why both are likely to cease trading unless we get a deal (and tarif-free access to other nations). Cease trading not because they aren't able to have product but because the obstacles to trade will be beyond that of a small business. Death through a thousand cuts with red tape.
But hey, they get blue passports and regained the sovereignty that was never lost. That must be worth something.
I forgot who said it but thought S sums up brexit: The undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed.
Doomaniac- UK EU trade accounts for 47% of global trade with a trade deficit of £-73Billion
Shakelton - Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs?
Do decisions made in Brussels ever have a negative impact on farmers in the UK and Ireland?
Are farmers going to chuck away hard fought improvements in quality just because the market share for beef has changed from predominately EU to Japan?
Many people on here are quite happy to pay import taxes for fancy goods from Non-EU, many threads about what coffee what wine what this and that.
dougiedogg
You really need to read up a lot more and with an open mind.
There can be no deal without JOhnson capitulating on things that the Brexiteers will not stand. NO deal is inevitable.
On farmers. UK farmers will have a choice - keep standards high and thus be able to continue to export into the EU - in which case they will be undercut in the UK market by US imports with much lower standards or cut standards to meet US to compete on cost and be frozen out of the EU market
financial institutions will not be able to operate in the EU market from London - which is why many of them are moving their HQs and much of their workforce into the EU
Exports to the rest of the world guess what - this is done mainly using EU FTAs - which we will no longer have - so we will lose that as well
Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.
No, it won't. Because our "normal trading with non-EU states" is facilitated via the agreements in place between those non-EU states and the EU. Not between those states and the UK, we have no such agreements. That's all going to disappear.
Aren't you listening to anything we're telling you? We become "other" overnight.
According to the EU figures we contribute a net £7.8 billion to the EU and the UK figures suggest £11 billion. That is a tariff folks, it is a net contribution for access to the single market.
Now someone has said we will be out £13 billion for tariffs which leaves a loss of £2 Billion.
Am I to be told that this isn't a cost we can recoup by changing our trade portfolio to a more R.O.W weighed one?
with a trade deficit of £-73Billion
In a massive self-pwn this is set to expand massively as we've just whacked a load of extra red tape on our exports but government have said they'll waive checks on imports for the first year until our world beating new customs system is in place
The madness of brexit for ya !
£7.8 billion
Which is roughly the additional admin cost just for customs forms for businesses, before we even start to look at all the other costs of not being in the Single Market and Customs Union… like all those extra civil servants you seemed to be pleased we’d need because of all the extra bureaucracy.
TJ- Greenland, Mexico, South Africa, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Chile and Ukraine? Those FTAs?
Dougiedogg - what do you actually do for a living?
Any suggestions how we 'change our trade portfolio to a more ROW weighted one'. That is very easy to type but a bit more difficult in practice...
Those FTAs?
You’ve added up the trade for those, yes? What does it come to?
Now someone has said we will be out £13 billion for tariffs which leaves a loss of £2 Billion.
£13bn was for customs checks ALONE
You've got the £bns we've already spent on Brexit to recoup,
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-cost/britains-government-spent-4-4-billion-pounds-on-brexit-planning-idUKKBN20T007
+ things like the Farage Garage down in Kent,ERASMUS, Horizon 2020 (that's £1bn a year), replacement for Galileo (already spent £1/2bn on that) EURATOM, replicating work of EMA, border enforcement, new infrastructure for checks in NI,DEFRA replicating CAP roles, EBA loans....
And trade deals dont do a massive amount Johnson's Government
Reckoned a USA trade deal would increase GDP by 0.16% OVER 15 YEARS!
and Truss now saying she doesn't even think we can get that
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51706802
Shakelton – Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs
In general, the reason we have regulation is to protect employees and consumers from badly designed, potentially dangerous products. The same regulations allow you to whistle-blow for dodgy practices at work, and allow the HSE to stop you losing limbs, eyes, or catching cancer.
They are not there to deliberately stifle production or innovation unless you consider paying your workers below minimum wage and providing a safe working environment detrimental to your business.
I notice that Dyson is using Covid-19 as an excuse to ditch UK employees in advance of Brexit.
Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs
But we aren't talking about deregulation, we are talking about trade. Most EU regulations are sensible and easy to comply with and are accepted globally as a sign of safety and quality so are sensible to comply with as they open you trade options. Deregulation is generally acknowleged to limit higher value export trade. Most export business will have to continue to comply with EU or equivalent standards but UK will have even less (read none) say in their setting.
Before you answer just stop, please go and read some informed commentators on global trade, have a think and then comment. Believing your opinion, based on poorly understood superficial observation, to be equivalent to fact is what caused this shitshow. Gets some facts on your side, understand the implications and then engage.
Sorry if that sounds patronising but I'm getting tired of dealing with people who gladly act in ignorance or out of prejudice.