Forum menu
surely knowing that a large majority of your party want you gone isn’t a tenable position?
Only if they can do something about it.
Let's all enjoy this glorious moment.
Wow. That escalated quickly.
I know Johnson will never resign, but if he does squeak through, surely knowing that a large majority of your party want you gone isn’t a tenable position?
If he gets through it's a large minority want him gone - 52:48 and all that....
I believe these things are always called a vote of confidence. Don’t know why this forum seems to add the ‘no’ to it.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/vote-of-confidence
Only if they can do something about it.
They can vote against the government until he gets the message.
If a hundred MPs vote against him in a VONC, a significant number of those could then rebel in other votes his government calls… and then as a lame duck PM he is pushed into an election or resigning (my money would be on the former). Winning the VONC isn’t necessarily the “safe for a year” gain that the supportive press would paint it as.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1533708967775436801?s=21
Don’t know why this forum seems to add the ‘no’ to it.
As the tweet above proves. It’s not just this forum.
Yeah it is technically a vote of confidence.
But I'm guessing sentiment is bursting through for the 'no'.
The Thatcherites are queueing up so it's hardly good news. This is a fight for a type of conservatism rather than getting rid of the Tories.
Jez Hunt will likely win a leadership battle then it's game over for the current Labour party.
(Johnson is a wriggler he will offer up more bombs for Ukraine and tax cuts in the background.)
If johnson survives the VONC that does not guarantee him 12 months without further challenge.
Brady could, as he did with May, say that the 1922 executive have discussed changing the rules to allow another vote within 12 months.
Although May won the vote the threat of another vote almost immediately was the catalyst for her departure.
Only if they can do something about it.
This is supposed to be the way the Tories do something about it although normal rules don't apply here. I mean a VONC is supposed to be a massive hint. I can't imagine for a second that Johnson will take it. I think Johnson's such a massive narcissist he will only want to go when he wants to. This "govt" is dedicated to just one thing, ensuring Johnson continues as PM, everything else has been pushed to the sidelines.
Oh, and on the personal note… we should all absolutely embrace people who once had faith in Johnson and/or Brexit but now see them for what they are. Remember, there was a time when he was winning London Mayoral elections, and he was just as corrupt and self serving (while cleverly playing the “not a normal politician” game)… but since then the people of London have overwhelming come to see him for what he really is. And the same is becoming true across the country now. He is the problem, not those who have taken longer to see through him. Let’s fix the Britain that Johnson broke, together.
Let’s fix the Britain that Johnson broke, together.
That needs painting on the side of a bus, or condensing to three words
My email to graylin
History is being written tonight .
Hopefully you will be remembered as someone who voted to get rid of someone who lied to Her Royal Majesty and partied the evening before The Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral.
Please don’t miss the opportunity to start righting the wrongs of a self entitled buffoon who has cast a dark shadow of this Platinum Jubilee year.
God Save The Queen.
He writes back when I come over all red white and blue rather than angry anarchist.
My ideal next few years:
Johnson Out
More moderate tories
Next GE no majority
Lib/Lab coalition
Proper referendum on PR
Vote for who i believe in.
For me the best outcome is that Johnson narrowly survives the vote and clings on. This will create maximum damage in the tory party and removes their ability to say at the next election " We got rid of Johnson, the new PM is nothing to do with him, you can now vote for us safely"
It also stops a new PM from a "reset"
All their energy will be taken up with infighting - it paralyses the government.
I think this is how it will go.
the Danger there is Johnson calls an early GE lumbers Labour/lib dems with the shit show.
the Danger there is Johnson calls an early GE lumbers Labour/lib dems with the shit show.
Yep I'm running this one around me head.
It's a threat for sure.
The Conservative Party is at the thin end of a slippery slope, the floodgates will open.
Prime Minister Truss? Prime Minister Rees Mogg? Whilst it's hard to imagine things being worse, it's entirely possible.
the Danger there is Johnson calls an early GE lumbers Labour/lib dems with the shit show
In what way will the "shit show" be better in a few years time? The opposition parties need to be ready to inherit a mess, at any time. The bigger danger is that at some point six months of tax cuts, flag waving, blaming the EU and othering of minorities wins Johnson a second term and much longer to dig us an even bigger hole for others to dig us out of.
Let’s just enjoy Dumbojo having a shit day.
He's not bothered about a 'shit show' to pass on, he's bothered about him. He couldn't give a flying **** about any damage he's done, he doesn't even see it. How detached and self-obsessed do you have to be as PM to be giving the finger to people in a restaurant?
@dantsw13 Yep, agree with all of that.
In the meantime, having a VOC isn't the same as him losing it, and if he wins it even by 50% +1, he'll claim it as a vindication. Under current rules he can't be touched for a year after that but as we all know the 1922 committee rules can be re-written whenever they feel like it.
Just up on BBC News:
A vote of confidence in Boris Johnson will be held by Conservative MPs from 18:00 to 20:00 BST
Be interesting to see if he clings on but then the Tories get hammered in the 2 by-elections (West Yorkshire and Tiverton & Honiton) next week. That'll add a LOT of pressure on him to go.
Interesting that the vote is happening so immediately.
what would be the harm/benefits in holding it in a couple of days?
delay gives those against Johnson more time to organise and to coalesce around one candidate.
A delay also gives more time for more newspaper headlines slating Johnson
The longer the build up the more time for plotters to plot. So I'm guessing the short timeframe suits bozo.
what would be the harm/benefits in holding it in a couple of days?
I'm guessing doing it with immediacy creates a bit of chaos and/or prevent opponents being organised.
BUT everyone knew it was coming soon, so you'd hope opponents are more than ready!
Delaying the vote would give time to the johnson out grouping to
co-ordinate and lobby others to vote against him.
Timing of the vote denies them that opportunity which is helpful to No 10.
Johnson would have been very busy on the phone over the last few days. Anyone still believing anything he promises them in a private phone call isn't fit to be an MP.
I'm guessing he doesn't want to go into PMQs on Wednesday with it hanging over him
I’m guessing he doesn’t want to go into PMQs on Wednesday with it hanging over him
There's always the chance that he goes into PMQs on Wednesday having lost the vote! He won't / can't resign immediately, it's just the start of the process to oust him.
Either way I think the Tories are screwed.
An 80-seat majority won on the basis of installing someone well-known as being a lazy narcissistic liar selling Brexit as being "done".
The Tories will tie themselves in knots to defend him if he does win - JRM will no doubt forget that although Theresa May narrowly won her VONC, she was still pressured into going but I bet this time he'll be defending Boris to the hilt saying that he's been vindicated, we should move on blah blah.
My understanding is that the 54 letter line was breached last week, but SGB held off announcing due to the Jubilee weekend
I know Johnson will never resign, but if he does squeak through, surely knowing that a large majority of your party want you gone isn’t a tenable position?
Political guy on the News this morning. He said that like May, if he thinks it'll be close, offer to resign before the next election instead of being booted (but will they trust him) equally, if he's worried about Red Wall Tories he might threaten a snap GE to let the 'nation decide'.
It could be the end for him tonight, or it could be the begining of the end, but either way, he's a dead man walking.
Based on prior experience I’m not getting excited.
I don't know what the best result here would be. I was talking to my Russian colleague the other day and something she said sums up UK politics at the moment:
'People always say things can't get any worse but that's just not true. Things can always get worse. Until you die, then things can't get any worse.'
I think the best result would be if he lost narrowly and then refused to go.
Whether it's Johnson or a replacement what worries me is that they will try to 'consolidate' the tory vote and/or scorched earth of more privatisation and more inflating the housing market. They will bring in more legislation against industrial action and demonstrations as the only pay rise (for some) will be a few months before the election.
if he’s worried about Red Wall Tories he might threaten a snap GE to let the ‘nation decide’.
Kamikaze-style general election during a cost of living crisis? Would Tory MPs actually allow that to pass a vote?
A narrow win in the VOC would be hilarious (and probably necessary), to hear the screams of the Tory Party now firmly shackled to him as he plunges into the depths.
He'll sleaze out of it tonight, but by-elections will be tough, if they lose Wakefield but keep Tiverton then he'll probably be able to limp on further.
If they loses both they'll boot him out, even if it means rewriting the rules.
Either way my mood is still
Why are lots of people assuming getting rid of Johnson will be good for the tories and bad for labour? The last election was won by red wall voters breaking their ties with labour to vote for Johnson, not the tories. They believed Johnson was different to all the other tories and gave a shit about working people who had been forgotten by metropolitan woke liberals. If Johnson goes so does their votes. This is a lose-lose situation for the tories, especially given the lack of an obvious replacement.
My bet is that he'll win narrowly and cling on. Main reason is that the heavier hitters will back off because they don't want to replace him knowing that they're doomed anyway. One thing we can be certain of now is that the tories are done. Starmer must be thanking his lucky stars.
Whether it’s Johnson or a replacement what worries me is that they will try to ‘consolidate’ the tory vote and/or scorched earth of more privatisation and more inflating the housing market. They will bring in more legislation against industrial action and demonstrations as the only pay rise (for some) will be a few months before the election.
Same guy on the Radio today, Red Wall Tories want the Cost-of-Living crisis sorted double quick, that could be Sunak shaking the magic money tree again, but more Traditional Tories in the South are all about 'prudence' and 'Conservative Values' and they're the ones making the most fuss to their MPs at the moment.
I guess we must think, as terrifying as it is, what do Tory Party Members want, because they elect the sucessor? I’m thinking austerity, immigration control and the like?
Labour seem to have their Civil War under control for the time being, it’s time for the Tories to tear themselves apart.
the heavier hitters will back off
There is no-one in the present Tory ranks who meets that description.
52% - 48% in Boris's favour should give him a mandate
Would Tory MPs actually allow that to pass a vote?
Be tricky for him personally as well. Whilst a not bad majority it isnt amazing and a concerted effort could well get him out especially if a bunch of tories stay home in disgust.