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the heavier hitters will back off
There is no-one in the present Tory ranks who meets that description.
No one with the gravitas of Matt Hancock?
If Johnson goes so does their votes.
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-red-wall-voters-turn-against-tories-poll-suggests
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/red-wall-poll-results/
[ that Times one is pay walled ... try this ... https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/05/28/yougov-mrp-boris-johnson-set-lose-seat-labour-swee ]
There is no-one in the present Tory ranks who meets that description.
I meant the more serious candidates rather than nutters like Truss. Sunak, Mordant, Tugendhat, Zahawi etc will all hold back as they don't want to inherit a shitshow of a party/govt doomed to lose the next election. The narcissists and idiots like Truss, Gove, Raab and maybe Javid would step forward just so they can be PM for a couple of years before being booted out.
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
True. But people have short memories, and Johnson is an expert at blowing the dog whistles. They can either kiss goodbye to those votes by changing back to a true-blue leader, or take a punt on Johnson winning back their trust. Either way the red wall is probably gone, along with a load of seats in the shires to the lib dems, and complete annihilation in London. They f*****!
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
Aye, and even before Partygate they'd been drifting away as it became apparent that Levelling Up was nothing but talk.
Sunak, Mordant, Tugendhat, Zahawi etc will all hold back as they don’t want to inherit a shitshow of a party/govt doomed to lose the next election.
Sunak has blown it already, but other than that, this is a fair statement. Anyone half serious will be looking at the current state of affairs, plus the power whatever the ERG is calling itself this week has to disrupt any sensible policy agenda, and thinking 'no'.
All polling shows that Johnson has already lost those votes.
I'm sure some will still be clinging to the myth that he is some kind of relatable, everyman vote-winner.
I mean, look at this 'briefing note' to MPs from No.10.
He's certainly relatable - most of us know a narcissistic arsehole.
He'll hang on until they lose Honiton and Tiverton. then they'll get rid. It is Raab's time and they need a fall guy. Gove and Javid are too smart to have anything to do with the mess.
It is Raab’s time and they need a fall guy. Gove and Javid are too smart to have anything to do with the mess.
I'm half wondering if Shapps will go for it. I know that he's one of the perennial idiots wheeled out to defend the latest indefensible indiscretions from Boris but I think he's probably got half an eye on the top job too and he's not quite smart enough to swerve it.
It's always those "I have no interest in standing for PM..." people you need to watch out for cos their tune rapidly changes to "I would be honoured to lead the party / country into the next election..."
I was under the impression that BJ was the only person willing to take on the shitshow last time around. Now it’s many times worse. Who’d want that?
Gove and Javid are too smart to have anything to do with the mess.
Yes they are smart but they will also know that their chances of being a future PM are almost zero, so their ambition could get the better of them. This especially applies to Gove, his star has fallen so far this will be his only chance, and he has Murdoch behind him too.
Well I've just won £20 on getting the VONC announcement would be today. Putting the original stake of £5 on Johnson 'winning' the vote by a margin of less than 5%, just for giggles!
Whatever happens tonight though we're all in for a few months of pain while the Tory party self-destruct. I can't see any other path they will take unfortunately.
has he called fraud yet ?
I know that audiences do not represent a wider constituency but listening to R4 Any Questions from Freshwater on Friday evening was interesting. The Isle of Wight returned a Conservative MP with more than 50% of the vote but by the sound of it the audience were laughing and heckling anyone who attempted to defend or justify Boris. If I was a a Tory MP in a safe seat I’d be getting nervous with a reception like that.
Or fortunately, for the longer term!!
I think the best result would be if he lost narrowly and then refused to go
This is surely the most likely outcome? Or maybe squeak a win by one vote and announce this as a firm mandate for his continued leadership.
He won’t resign under any circumstances. He’s shown that multiple times. He is devoid of shame and thinks that everything is about him, and his interests come before the party and certainly the country’s interests
I can see him having a massive tantrum and calling a snap general election just to throw a hand grenade into proceedings. Or announcing Martial Law and imprisoning anyone who voted against him in the tower. Or declaring war on France. Or all three of those things at once
Whoever wrote that briefing note needs to lay off the formatting.
Whoever wrote that briefing note needs to lay off the formatting.
i think they have an account here...
○ [U]It's all about the boosterism...[/U] fake energy and no real work.
○ [U]Promise them anything...[/U] and when it doesn't materialise, promise it again.
○ [U]Only Johnson can fix...[/U] everything he's broken.
○ Nobody trusts Boris Johnson... [u]trust in Boris Johnson[/u].
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/06/boris-johnson-tory-cult
Vultures circling, there's a definite shift in tone across lot of the media this morning. Be interesting to see tomorrow's headlines. Willing to bet the Mail and Express will manage to find a dinghy full of refugees and dead cats...
He’ll hang on until they lose Honiton and Tiverton. then they’ll get rid.
If he wins tonight, by whatever margin (which is quite likely), he can hang on for at least a year under party rules, and would no doubt try to call a GE during that period to head off another attempt.
So the central question is what would it take for him to actually resign? He probably believes his own PR. The Mail appears to have gone all-in for him, which is odd, it can normally detect when the prevailing wind has shifted.
I can see him having a massive tantrum and calling a snap general election just to throw a hand grenade into proceedings.
This would be amazingly entertaining, and possibly more likely than it sounds. He'll sell it as letting the people decide rather than his MPs. It's the nuclear button with a massive 'do not press' sticker over the top of it and he could just be crazy enough to go for it.
Whether it’s Johnson or a replacement what worries me is that they will try to ‘consolidate’ the tory vote and/or scorched earth of more privatisation
Absolutely.
We have got so dumbed-down with poor behaviour we are not looking at end-game.
This chap thinks he has something to sink him once and for all
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/1533730751920885763
Sunak, Mordant, Tugendhat, Zahawi etc will all hold back as they don’t want to inherit a shitshow of a party/govt doomed to lose the next election.
Sunak has blown it already, but other than that, this is a fair statement. Anyone half serious will be looking at the current state of affairs, plus the power whatever the ERG is calling itself this week has to disrupt any sensible policy agenda, and thinking ‘no’.
I can't argue with any of that, but...
I fancy the writing on the Wall says the Tories are going to lose the next election, the only question at the moment is by a little, or a lot, which will depend on whether Johnson leads them.
The Next goverment in 2024, like Biden in a way, will likely come into No10 past the apex of Covid / Brexit / CoL. Meaning, unless there's another crisis, the news will be of improving fortunes for the UK. Certainly by the end of that term it's likley things will be a lot rosier than they are now (not exactly) hard, so they'll likley win the next, next election too.
I'd bet Sunak et al, are seeing Data that says, they can (possibly) be PM now, and have 2 years to try to fix things, or take over as Party Leader in Opposition in 2024 and then possibly/likely lose that election, which could mean resiging as leader.
Their best bet to be PM for any length of time, could be to take it now, and hope and pray they can turn things around by 2024.
It’s on the television news non-stop here in northern Spain. The cafe owner just asked us where we’re from, looked at the telly and rolled his eyes. Laughing stock of the bloody world! 🙄
The bookies odds on him surviving are 1.2/1
The exact same odds as the Lib Dems winning the Tiverton by-election
Laughing stock of the bloody world! 🙄
Never understood why people care about this. 'We' are not a laughing stock, our politicians are.
It doesnt really matter if Johnson is voted out or not, its how the public now view him and the tory party in general.
I think if he retains his job, theres more chance he'll fk it some more and persuade more and more voters not to vote tory in the next election.
The bookies odds on him surviving are 1.2/1
bookies odds are mostly based upon prevailing voting - so all that number suggests is that slightly more of votes which have been placed so far are at that rate..
If he wins tonight, by whatever margin (which is quite likely), he can hang on for at least a year under party rules
They can change the rules fairly easily though (its just a 1922 committee thing rather than a general mp or tory membership vote) and they have threatened to do so on several occasions.
and would no doubt try to call a GE during that period to head off another attempt.
I dont know about that. His own seat isnt overly safe and could see a serious effort to get him out supported by a bunch of tories staying home.
So the central question is what would it take for him to actually resign?
A better offer?
So the central question is what would it take for him to actually resign?
he's not the resigning type.
Why are lots of people assuming getting rid of Johnson will be good for the tories and bad for labour?
I don't think it's so much "bad" for labour, more that if they manage to shake Borisconni and most of his cabinet loose from the leadership now, they'll have time to regroup and campaign effectively for the next GE, whereas having him as leader at least until a point closer to the next GE makes the Tories position potentially weaker, they can more easily labelled as the party of privilege, sleaze and broken promises.
But it's all 'if and/or maybe' and if there's anything the last few years has taught us, its that UK politics is not as predictable as people would like to believe.
I don't think anyone gets to have their cake and eat it in all of this.
First priority is to see what the outcome of the VOC will be, beyond that it's all speculation. Does a VOC remove Bojo? if not does not, does it weaken him or embolden him and galvanise his base in the Tory party?
I'm expecting the latter TBH, but you never know.
Does a VOC remove Bojo? if not does not, does it weaken him or embolden him and galvanise his base in the Tory party?
Losing a VO(N)C means the PM is expected to resign.
But then lying in the HoC means the MP concerned is expected to resign and that's not happened so who knows. I'm sure BJ will just rewrite the rules to say "now is not the time, war in Ukraine, levelling up, blah blah" and it might take some more concerted action to actually get him to go.
Winning means he could in theory stay on but Theresa May was forced into outlining her exit plan and standing down even though she won. Mind you, there was a lot of plotting from the Brexity Morons to get her to go.
they’ll have time to regroup and campaign effectively for the next GE
Which they’ll certainly lose without Johnson. They only just managed to beat Corbyn so they’ve no chance against Starmer without the red wall Johnson cult supporting them.
Winning means he could in theory stay on but Theresa May was forced into outlining her exit plan and standing down even though she won. Mind you, there was a lot of plotting from the Brexity Morons to get her to go.
I think May had to promise she'd resign in order to survive the vote, Boris wont do that.
TBH, if the end goal is to see Labour (or anyone else) win the next election, Boris surviving tonight isn't a bad outcome. Polls are showing they're going to lose the next election in a landslide and I can't see him doing anything in the next 2 years to turn that around.
Losing a VO(N)C means the PM is expected to resign.
For the tories they lose leadership of the party and so will stop being PM once the new leader is elected.
Although I am curious whether it does have properly written rules or it just relies on them doing the right thing in which case Johnson is guaranteed not to do so.
Polls are showing they’re going to lose the next election in a landslide and I can’t see him doing anything in the next 2 years to turn that around.
My preferred option would be Labour doing well but needing SNP votes for a majority.....with a referendum as the price. I can't see that happening (it would be like turkeys voting for Christmas - needing the Scottish vote which you would then immediately lose for good if the referendum went the SNP's way) but one can dream.
Two things jump out to me in that letter from Johnson...
- Rwanda
- Cuts, cuts, cuts
Does that mean Dido Harding has been given the nod by Jeremy Hunt? Penrose and Hunt both making their moves this morning might be a coincidence... but I doubt it.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748202318581765?s=20&t=JbkbyFBfe-yoz_l34dckYQ
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1533748389891940352?s=20&t=JbkbyFBfe-yoz_l34dckYQ
bookies odds are mostly based upon prevailing voting
No, Bookies odds are based on the amount of money bet, how it's split across the 'field' and their margin.
If they have any sense the Tories will opt for either backing him strongly or knifing him cleanly. The worst outcome for them is one where he lingers on like a dirty smell. I think over 250 votes he’s probs ok. Under 200 and I think it’s game over.