I think Sunak will appeal to MPs and Donors and will find it easy to get into the final two, but Truss is far more palatable to the Party members.
~thats my reading - those would be the final two and Sunak is too brown for the memvbership
Do the tories have to go on a different tack if they choose Sunak? They can’t stick with all this populist nudge-nudge-wink-wink racism that seemingly appealed to the Brexit voting morons / ‘Red Belt’ northern seats. I can’t see a brown billionaire having the same appeal!
Same play - look at Patel- even more anti immigrant anyone else. The tragedy for these tories who are children of immigrants and are a bit brown is that no matter how racist and anti immigrant they are they will never be loved by the membership
The thing that really bugs me about this whole thing is that if you'd have asked me in May '20 if I thought that they were having BYOB parties in the garden at No10, I honestly think I'd have laughed at the suggestion, because it's just too preposterous that even the Tory party could be that disingenuous that soon after telling everyone the rules, and pointed out how pissed off all of them looked when they were forced to defend Cumming's trip to Durham.
Thinking back, I remember having difficult phone calls with my partner (we lived separately at the time) and trying to work out if we could meet up, and deciding that it really wasn't the right thing to do. I know it's not the same as losing loved ones, but we didn't see each other for about 8 weeks I think it was...
He hasn't got form for resigning, in the past he's always been sacked. He doesn't explain or apologise. I read a journalist who'd been around him a lot describe how he drinks in a determined 'on a mission' fashion. He looks like he returned to his BMI of 35 pretty quickly after hospitalisation. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a gasp on an oxygen mask to sort out his hangovers. Starmer looks pretty jowly too.
I wonder how Carrie is taking all this?
I expect she's suffering from buyers regret
The thing that really bugs me about this whole thing is that if you’d have asked me in May ’20 if I thought that they were having BYOB parties in the garden at No10, I honestly think I’d have laughed at the suggestion, because it’s just too preposterous that even the Tory party could be that disingenuous that soon after telling everyone the rules,
Errmmm - we knew at the time the tories were not following the rules and had known since the beginning of the epidemic. the idea that they were having illegal parties was hardly farfetched. Multiple instances of Tories not thinking the rules applied to them before this
Do the tories have to go on a different tack if they choose Sunak? They can’t stick with all this populist nudge-nudge-wink-wink racism that seemingly appealed to the Brexit voting morons / ‘Red Belt’ northern seats. I can’t see a brown billionaire having the same appeal!
Same play – look at Patel- even more anti immigrant anyone else. The tragedy for these tories who are children of immigrants and are a bit brown is that no matter how racist and anti immigrant they are they will never be loved by the membership
Todays Racists aren't like their 70s and 80s predecessors, they love nothing more than a Brown person who is completely anglicized, but like I said above, Sunak won't be their Man, he's the ruthless capitalist type of Tory, not the frothing at the mouth, living in the past, 'stiff upper lip' type of Tory. Truss is a pastiche of their rose tinted memories of Thatcher (who, ironically was far more Sunak than Boris) and probally seen as Johnson 2.0.
Rumour (Twitter) has it that there are already enough letters to force a VONC,
That’s huge news if true, where are you hearing that?
Sorry, I can't find the bloody tweet now, but it was a 'blue tick' Westminster jurno. I've tried searching for it, but obvs if you search for 1922 or VONC today you get the 'phonebook' back.
The 'vibe' amongst the Political twits is that before yesterday there were a lot of backbenchers in marginal seats looking at the polls and making noises and the various players who want the job had their teams and backers organising behind the scenes, but PMQs was a disaster and now they're starting to unite into a more organised group for various reasons, but if nothing else, there are currently around 150 Tory MPs in Westminster, who, if an election was called tomorrow would likely lose their jobs. It only takes 54 of them to put letters in to force a VONC, but, for Boris to actually be forced out, they need 181 votes and if they miss that target, he can't be touched for a year, which would be too close to a GE to risk removing him unless it's obvious they're going to lose.
P-Jay - that may be true in general but these tory party member ARE the 70s and 89s racists IMO So I think you would be right about the voters in general perhaps - being brown would not cost them much but among the membership? I think being brown will cost that person significantly
Errmmm – we knew at the time the tories were not following the rules and had known since the beginning of the epidemic
well that's not my recollection tjagain, and I can remember the sense of public outrage when it was revealed that Cummings broke the rules, even my then Tory MP was angry about it How come there was some much anger at the time if "we knew at the time" that "tories were not following the rules" ?
I expect she’s suffering from buyers regret
I expect she'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming from her recently redecorated flat but I also bet that she's got the divorce papers lined up and she'll know where the money is squirrelled away (or which donors she'll have to be nice to in order to obtain a payout).
Nickc
There had already been multiple instances of them not following the rules and making ridiculous excuses before that. Their attitude to the rules and the law was obvious well before Cummings and Barnard castle
Jenrick was one
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/10/robert-jenrick-urged-explain-visit-parents-during-lockdown
Tobias Ellwood was another
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55343187.amp
Then there was Stanley Johnson - several breaches for him. Not totally sure of the timelines
Neil Ferguson tho not a politician was another
Your memory's better than mine, I'd forgotten about these. Although, these are individuals, not BYOB parties eh?
Yes but their cavalier attitude to the rules clearly went right thru the tories. rules are for little people. Remember Johnson right at the beginning being proud of being maskless and shaking hands with covid positive patients?
Also the way they all leapt to the defense of "honest Bob" Jenrick? He kept his job after multiple clear breachs of the rules with a really poor excuse. At that point it was obvious they had no regard for the rules at all.
The Tories have spent the last 5 years furiously blowing the racist dogwhistle in order to successfully absorb the former UKIP voter base, which was fundamental in delivering the 2019 landslide.
Sadly (From a State of the nation perspective) I do suspect that for every voter they win back with Sunak, one will run crying back home to Uncle Nigel asking him to 'make the nasty brown person go away'.
Nige's fags, booze and divorce settlement fund is clearly running low so he'll be loving it.
Make the whole world think we’re weird toffs who call their children with a whistle.
Ah yes. Withawhistle Bewowulf Flangetrumpet is one of Rees Mogg's isn't he?
Sunak is too brown for the memvbership
I'm not so sure. He might be for some but I think most of the racists will play the 'Oh not you, you're ok, it's the rest of them' card. This is how they remain racist in the face of all rational argument. I don't think there as much 'brown people are bad' style racism around these days, it's more a general sense of 'otherness' that is the problem - and Sunak could easily prove that he's one of them i.e. a True Tory.
Boris Johnson is unlikely to be seen in public for the next week after a member of his immediate family tested positive for Covid, Downing Street has said. While self-isolation for contacts of coronavirus cases is no longer mandatory, Johnson’s spokesman said the prime minister would heed guidance to limit outside contacts as much as possible for seven days after the test.
How very convenient for him - thats next weeks PMQs included of course
So we have hiding in a fridge, lying down in his car to avoid being seen, refusing to answer the urgent question in the house and now this? the man is laughable
So we already could safely call him a racist, a liar and a philanderer as all are true. We can now add to that coward
Will Carrie get to keep the new wallpaper when they are kicked out?
I wonder how Carrie is taking all this?
My guess is she'll bide her time, wait until he's been booted out and signed a couple of lucrative book/newspaper deals then take him to the cleaners..
I’m not so sure. He might be for some but I think most of the racists will play the ‘Oh not you, you’re ok, it’s the rest of them’ card. This is how they remain racist in the face of all rational argument. I don’t think there as much ‘brown people are bad’ style racism around these days, it’s more a general sense of ‘otherness’ that is the problem – and Sunak could easily prove that he’s one of them i.e. a True Tory.
Had an interesting conversation over Christmas with Indian friends of ours who've lived here about 15 years.
They reckon Britain isn't ready for a brown PM and the Tories won't risk upsetting their base with Sunak in the big chair.
They both work in Finance and reckon Sunak would be the best candidate though.
So even though Johnson apologised and was definitely sincere he told MPs afterwards that he hadn't done anything wrong. What a massive surprise.
"They both work in Finance and reckon Sunak would be the best candidate though."
Socialists are they? Thought not! Sunak is the candidate for the rich who want to stay rich and get richer
Sunak would appear to have more than 2 brain cells and be reasonably competent. Of all of that shower he would probably be the best candidate for sure and the most dangerous to labour
I mean look at the competition. Not one of them I would trust to run a bath. Sunak at least might be able to find the plug and the taps
Would sunak be less open to corruption given that he's already obscenely rich?
Disagree. The problem with wealthy banker types is they project a false air of confidence, they have very little periperhal vision and they totally misunderstand risk. A good chancellor (even if Sunak is such a thing) rarely makes a good PM. He has no political breadth of experience having only been elected in 2015 to back him up and I'm not even sure he is as bright as people make him out to be.
Boris should be OK for PMQ next week if the new 5 days isolation period Javid announced applies to him. Or maybe it will be revised back up again by the weekend
JRM trying to destroy relations between westminster Tories and conservatives in Wales now as well I see
Winston - being the best of a bad bunch does not make you good 🙂 I mean really Truss? Gove? Hunt?
But my money is on Truss.
I’m not even sure he is as bright as people make him out to be.
First from Oxford, MBA from Stanford, and a Fulbright Scholar would suggest he's not stupid though
Myopic - the message from downing street is don't expect to see him for a week. I'll bet my house he is not there for PMQs
Sunak would appear to have more than 2 brain cells and be reasonably competent. Of all of that shower he would probably be the best candidate for sure and the most dangerous to labour
I mean look at the competition. Not one of them I would trust to run a bath. Sunak at least might be able to find the plug and the taps
I don't think we ever really know how competent any of them are. We only know that they're good at Politics, Sunak especially, with nothing but a very expensive education, the sort of network that only Public School and an Oxford Degree can give you (he's Besties with the Political Editor of the Spectator) and a Billionaire Father-in-Law, he's managed to claw his way from a Hedge Fund Manger to MP, to Chancellor, to 2/1 Favourite to be the next PM in 6 years. He must have shown some incredible Political Talent to be handed the Tory candidacy for Richmond (a seat they've held since 1910) having never stood for public office before.
I'm not saying he's been parachuted in by Billionaire Hedge Fund owners to ensure their influence in Westminster, but... if you were a Billionaire Hedge Fund owner who wanted to ensure your influence in Westminster, this would be how you'd do it. He might be worse than Johnson, he might actually be competent, but acting in the interest of the Country might not be his goal.
Truss on the other hand followed the more usual route to becoming an MP, party member - smaller roles in the party, councillor, candidate for a no-hope constituency, and finally a safe constituency. Actually worked for her constituency, junior minister and finally Cabinet position.
Gove has back-stabbed too many people inside the Party and made too many enemies.
Hunt was a known remainer and unlike Truss he hasn't gone out of his way to prostrate himself before the cult of the Holy Brexit to atone for this cardinal sin in the eyes of the membership.
It's either Truss or some random outsider who manages to monopolise the 'anyone but Truss' vote.
That might end up being Sunak but I suspect not.
Outside bet: Oliver Dowden
Oh, I know TJ. My point was even if he could, he won't
TJ that shaking hands was another lie, the local paper made it very clear that it hadn't happened (they had no Covid patients at the time) and the hospital staff were not best pleased either.
he might actually be competent, but acting in the interest of the Country might not be his goal.
He is a tory - of course acting in the interests of the country is not his goal. The tory party are there to preserve wealth and privilege for the wealthy and privileged
Interesting BillMC
still shows a cavalier attitude to the rules !
They both work in Finance and reckon Sunak would be the best candidate though.
I work in Finance (Banking) and don't trust an awful lot on my colleagues opinions on work never mind politics.
"I have big political differences with Douglas Ross, but even I am not as derogatory about him as his own Tory colleagues are being," says Nicola Sturgeon.
First from Oxford, MBA from Stanford, and a Fulbright Scholar would suggest he’s not stupid though
It's mad really, isn't it.
Chris Grayling: Degree from Cambridge. Went on to be the possibly the crappest minister in living memory
Dominic Raab: Undergraduate degree from Oxford, Postgraduate degree from Cambridge, qualified as a solicitor. Didn't know that Dover-Calais was quite important.
First from Oxford, MBA from Stanford, and a Fulbright Scholar would suggest he’s not stupid though
Or he's very well connected. e.g. Helen Whately, Westminster school, she's an Oxford graduate etc. but makes a bunch of celery look like an intellectual colossus
There are different types of intelligence. Just because you are good at learning from books and regurgitating facts does not mean you have any nous, common sense, emotional intelligence, ability to do synthesis etc etc.
First from Oxford, MBA from Stanford, and a Fulbright Scholar would suggest he’s not stupid though
It's one of the basic flaws of our society which only values a very narrow definition of ability defined by narrow academic excellence to the almost total exclusion of anything else. You can have as many degrees as you like, but still be shull-crushingly thick in real life. Being good at exams does not mean you'll be good at managing projects, manageing people or have an ounce of emotional intelligence. Arguably it often means the opposite. Terrible self-perpetuating chumocracy epitomised by the Tories.
“I have big political differences with Douglas Ross, but even I am not as derogatory about him as his own Tory colleagues are being,” says Nicola Sturgeon.
Sums up the different culture between Westminster and Holyrood.
Chris Grayling: Degree from Cambridge. Went on to be the possibly the crappest minister in living memory
Dominic Raab: Undergraduate degree from Oxford, Postgraduate degree from Cambridge, qualified as a solicitor. Didn’t know that Dover-Calais was quite important.
My lad scraps like hell to get a place at Oxbridge just as we finally realise they are all as thick as shit!
