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Agree, but to be fair they’re fairly open about it:
They often pretend to be otherwise.
A quick check shows they are pro referendum with a remain option. Should they only stand in those constituencies where the SNP didnt get a majority? Seems a bit flawed considering how close some of those were.
Well, if you wanted to maximise the anti-brexit MPs you certainly wouldn't be taking votes off the party most likely to otherwise take the seat. Would you like to hazard a guess at why they might do so?
Would you like to hazard a guess at why they might do so?
Because they want to get some people in parliament as a rough guess?
For those seats. How tight is the majority?
Your case would be more valid if they were challenging in all the seats where the SNP were only a small percentage either behind or in front.
Is this the case?
The former didn’t cost any revenue [1] and the latter was essential to remain competitive. Look at the corporation taxes of other nations. As it gets easier to move companies around corporation tax has to lower, it’s not inelastic.
Worldwide corporation tax rates here
UK comes below EU, European, G20, G7 and Global rates.
Your case would be more valid if they were challenging in all the seats where the SNP were only a small percentage either behind or in front.
Like Pete Wisharts 21 vote majority you mean? Or Joanna Cherrys of around 1,000?
Agree, but to be fair they’re fairly open about it:
Rather than their general attitude to the EU, scroll to the bottom and look at their policy on Brexit. It's even more ambiguous than Labour, and I though that was impossible.
Agree, but to be fair they’re fairly open about it:
Read the rest of it. They're not proposing leaving the EU but say it needs restructuring.
Greybeard - That was written 2017 though
Or Joanna Cherrys of around 1,000?
Okay. So what about the rest?
Simply claiming that most of the seats they are challenging are currently occupied by the SNP really doesnt give us much information.
You guys do know there are two* Green parties, yes? And that being eurosceptic and keen for change in the EU is not the same as wanting to be outside the EU at all.
(*well, three if you look at NI as well, but then all their parties are standalone from rUK)
UK comes below EU, European, G20, G7 and Global rates.
Thanks for posting the numbers.
All I can see is broad agreement around 20pc, some a few percent over some a few percent under with the UK slap in the middle. [1]
If Milliband is using corp tax as a barometer for class war then he's arguing that Spain/Greece/Germany are in a bitter class war being won by the 'lower' classes and Ireland and Hungaria are in a bitter class war being won by the 'upper' classes and the UK is slap bang in the middle in harmony. So I'd argue that Milliband's analysis is wrong on this one. [2][3]
[1] I appreciate other people see it as a massive Gulf and I really don't know how we work out who's right on the "broad agreement" issue so we probably need to park it.
[2] I appreciate other people see it as clear evidence of class war and I really don't know how we work out who's right on that issue so we probably need to park it.
[3] Also because I doubt we're comparing like with like here - what the taxman gives in corporation tax to encourage people to move to Ireland/UK/Hungary he may well take back in other taxes which weakens Milliband's argument further.
You guys do know there are two* Green parties, yes? And that being eurosceptic and keen for change in the EU is not the same as wanting to be outside the EU at all.
None the less a Europhile party is going to be a far better advocate of remaining than an extreme euroskeptic party. I mean, they're not just saying they think the Euro is a bad idea and we shouldn't join, they're saying "The present EU structures are fundamentally flawed". If Farage stood up and said "The present EU structures are fundamentally flawed" I don't want a remain advocate who wholeheartedly agrees with him. How hard are they going to fight to remain part of something that is "fundamentally flawed" and how credible are them making the remain case?
Mind ewe the same argument applies to the SNP. If they were offered a no deal exit from the UK, they'd jump at it and if that meant also a no deal Brexit from the EU they'd take that too. At no point in the Scottish Refferendum did they say that leaving the UK was conditional on getting membership or a deal from the EU. (Indeed didn't the SNP coin the "project fear" idea, if not the term.)
All I can see is broad agreement around 20pc, some a few percent over some a few percent under with the UK slap in the middle. [1]
You might indeed see that, were you to hold a telescope to your blind eye.
You might indeed see that, were you to hold a telescope to your blind eye.
Just out of interest what spread would you regard as 'broad agreement'?
15-22pm?
18-20pm?
What spread would you regard as 'close agreement'?
19-20?
What spread would you regard as 'rough agreement'?
12-25?
10-30?
We might be able to find a term we both agree with.
And that being eurosceptic and keen for change in the EU is not the same as wanting to be outside the EU at all.
Exactly, which is why I agree with most of the Green parties comments on EU. The EU needs lots of change and even though change is very unlikely (they are really not good at seeing or accepting their failings) I would still rather stay in EU and try and change it than leave all together.
Whether I would join if we were not already in the EU is a different matter.
We might be able to find a term we both agree with.
So far, I've seen your preference, with ill-deserved confidence, to present fiction as fact.
That being the case, I find it highly unlikely that we're going to agree on anything. Now, have you managed to find the number of people paying an effective tax rate of 40% yet?
Now, have you managed to find the number of people paying an effective tax rate of 40% yet?
No, but that shouldn't prevent you from making a point based on the number of people paying an effective tax rate of 40%.
Looks like Farage is going to split the tory / leave vote. good news for those of us with a bit of sense.
No, but that shouldn’t prevent you from making a point based on the number of people paying an effective tax rate of 40%.
Ah, so we can assume that you have no evidence to support your assertion. Gotcha.
Now, have you managed to find the number of people paying an effective tax rate of 40% yet?
Probably close to Zero in the UK, you'd have to earn a fair chunk at 45% via PAYE to average 40% and I would suspect most at that end of the pay scale are paid in more tax efficient ways than PAYE.
Ah, so we can assume that you have no evidence to support your assertion. Gotcha.
Which assertion? Quote it and maybe I can support it another way.
The only point I recall making about 40pc tax rate was that a 40pc higher tax rate can be introduced for reasons other than as part of a class war. I offered Scotland's 41pc rate as evidence that other countries have similar rates. If that's not acceptable dues to the number of people paying it then here's a list of EU upper tax rate. It's a tricky thing to compare but the UK higher rate is not a outlier by any means:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_in_Europe
It's a bit misleading to focus on corporation tax. Trump, for example, reduced it from 35 to currently 21% but it's illusory because accountants are employed so that firms don't pay it at all or enjoy a reduction.
Looks like Farage is going to split the tory / leave vote. good news for those of us with a bit of sense.
My crystal ball prediction ...
Yes, it will split the vote. Fine with me. Nothing last forever (referring to demise of Tories).
This will only mean the beginning of the end for one of the main British political party and this time there will be no turning back. I hope so.
Then the next party to go will be Labour because if Labour wins the next GE they will have to face SNP call for independence. I think Scotland will gain their independence under a Labour govt. Freedoommm! After that Labour will be blamed for not handling Scotland well and will be consigned to history for breaking up the Union.
Which means Libdems will resurrect themselves (in the image of neoconservative whatever) as the next main party in British Politics in the next decade and probably we will also see the rise of Brexit Party (may change name after that).
The British political realignment is complete.
The sun rises in the east and sets in the west again. 😀
OOB - your assertion is that the laffer curve means anything. It do0esn't.
when comparing EU tax rates you need to remeber that in most cases you pay for healthcare on top of your tax thus once you allow for this you see just how low our tax rates are - much lower than most
I've just been sent a letter by my MP, the lovely Mr Gove. Its all about his plan and what issues he stands for - anyone want to guess how often he, the joint architect of the whole current juju flop situation, actually mentions Brexit?
Not once on the front page where he sets out his vision, and exactly once ontthe back page in a tick box feed back exercise. You'd think he was trying to duck the biggest biggest issue of the election. Well actually Michael I think it's a bit more important than that, not that my opinion will do much for your electoral chances round here. Ah well.
They must have had a bit of a party at Labour HQ, down on the allotment, when the man-frog not only announced they would contest every seat, but referred to Johnson’s deal as ‘the surrender bill’ 😃
This made me laugh...
https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1190273435504664577?s=21
I’ve just stuck a tenner on Labour to win the most seats but not get a majority, at 6/1
Trump, for example, reduced it from 35 to currently 21% but it’s illusory because
The 35% was largely illlusory because the huge numbers of boutique tax cuts for certain sectors/individual companies/specific products etc. meant that no business with any sort of ability paid anything like it. More rational people suggested the 'cut' to 21% would be both fairer and actually an increase, if actually true and enforced. So even murkier.
OOB – your assertion is that the laffer curve means anything. It do0esn’t.
It's explained here:
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/794/economics/effect-of-tax-depending-on-elasticity/
in most cases you pay for healthcare on top of your tax
Not in Scotland.
...and many (all?) EU countries [1] (France for instance) pay for a significant base level of healthcare so the UK is not an outlier. But yes, it's very hard to compare income tax rates, which is why a blanket statement that a 40pc higher tax is evidence of a class war is likely to be wrong.
[1] I'm pretty sure that once you take healthcare for the elderly and poor into account even the USA isn't far behind the UK on spending on Healthcare for it's population.
I’ve just stuck a tenner on Labour to win the most seats but not get a majority, at 6/1
And I have just thrown a tenner down the toilet. We will get the same return. If bookies are offering 6/1 it is not going to happen.
I stuck a tenner on a hung parliament 3 weeks before the last election at 5/1, and another tenner on labour overturning a 3,500 Tory majority in my own constituency at 3/1. Both of which came in, so we’ll see
OOB – your assertion is that the laffer curve means anything. It do0esn’t.
The Laffer Curve is almost entirely a theoretical concept, which is largely true, rather like the demand/supply curve. Laffer didn't invent it but he popularised it when Reagan was on his trickle down economics kick. He never put any actual numbers on it because he couldn't. He even said later on that The Laffer Curve itself does not say whether a tax cut will raise or lower revenues. Instead, it shows that if taxes are already low, then further cuts reduce revenues without boosting growth. Politicians who claim tax cuts always raise revenues in the long-term misinterpret the Laffer Curve.
Some numbers for you, which seem to indicate that there is a huge flat spot in the centre of the curve. In the US, tax revenues since WWII have stayed around 15-20% of GDP while top marginal tax rates have swung between 28% and 92%. Clearly not a strong correlation.
The Laffer curve is a good visual concept of how taxes may affect revenue but it really doens have any real world value beyond that. Never will unless someone can put some actual numbers on it. It seems to indicate from its shape that 50% tax rate maximises revenue. If that's true, how come every country in the world doesn't have a 50% tax rate to maximise revenues?
Meanwhile over in the comments section of the Express they are all cheering for Farridge and hating on Johnson.
I'm kinda hopeing toad face will field as many candidates as he's thretening to, as it will wel and truly split the leave vote.
Probably close to Zero in the UK, you’d have to earn a fair chunk at 45% via PAYE to average 40% and I would suspect most at that end of the pay scale are paid in more tax efficient ways than PAYE.
That's my assumption too, but OOB seems to have a different view.
@Outofbreath the Laffer curve is a decades old economic theory that has been much challenged and debunked. It has very little support in the world of contemporary economics. I'm not going to trawl through decades of arguments but below is an interesting article from Nobel prize winning free trade economist Paul Krugman (Google him) drawing on research from another Nobel Laureate. Not sure if I'd advocate for 70/80% marginal rates of tax on the very rich like him, but he does make a strong arguments. In layman's terms when you are being told (usually by the very rich and their buddies) that increasing tax on the wealthiest will impact economic growth you are being mugged off!
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/opinion/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-tax-policy-dance.amp.html
I’m kinda hopeing toad face will field as many candidates as he’s thretening to, as it will wel and truly split the leave vote.
Let it split then see what will happen ...
I’m kinda hopeing toad face will field as many candidates as he’s thretening to, as it will wel and truly split the leave vote.
I hope he will fill all ...
And I have just thrown a tenner down the toilet.
Bloody hell man cheer up! Johnson is all over the place, Farage has just announced he's going to take votes off him, and Corbyn looks like he's been born again. There's a long way to go and anything can happen but for now it looks like labour have picked up where they left off in 2017, and doubts are creeping in about Boris's so called campaigning 'genius'.
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1190190091941101568?s=20
The Laffer Curve is almost entirely a theoretical concept, which is largely true, rather like the demand/supply curve.
It basically *is* a demand/supply curve or at least it's largely determined by the elasticity of the thing you're taxing.
Nobody's ever going to able to draw a perfect estimated supply demand curve for a product any more than you can draw a perfect Laffer curve but I bet both are pretty close in the areas we care about. (If you could make twice as much revenue selling mars bars for £30 each I bet the makers would know, in the same way if you could double revenue with a £30 tax on socks I bet the inland revenue would have a pretty shrewd idea, even if they decided not to do it.)
...but we know three points on it. We know at zero revenue is zero, at some other level revenue is zero and we know precisely the current point for a specific rate of tax on anything that's being taxed.
The rest gets built up with trial and error and estimate. We know fuel, addictive substances are inelastic and we can tax them 'till the pips squeak. We know buildings can't move so we can tax them highly with business rates. If business rates go to high revenue will drop off and you need to bring them down a bit. (Or let inflation bring them down a bit depending on how you're doing your taxing.)
You can't make money selling Mars bars with a £50,000 per bar tax on them, so equally you can't put a £50,000 tax on each mars bar an expect to generate much revenue.
All of that assumes you want to be on the bit of the graph that makes most revenue. I guess the demand for (say) drinking water is pretty inelastic but we don't tax that at £5 a drink or whatever it would bear. In contrast I would guess that businesses are always aiming for the sweet spot on a supply and demand curve.
Laffer curve is a decades old economic theory that has been much challenged and debunked.
Perhaps you could explain precisely what you mean by 'debunked'? (The link you posted didn't contain the work laffer or curve!)
I think Binners got his bet on at the right time… those odds will change over the coming weeks.
In other news "a source" close to Labour party HQ overheard a Malcolm Tuckeresque rant about Diane Abbott.
"For ****s sake don't let her talk to the press, in fact anyone, til after the ****ing election. She can roll her eyes and say whatever the **** she wants after it! Can we put her under house arrest, move her into the ****ing Ecuadorian embassy til it's all over. Surround her with an entourage wherever she goes. Say it's down to death threats or she's been struck down by a mystery illness, which has rendered her deaf and mute til after the election. We can't have a repeat of that ****ing millstone taking her shoes and socks off to count on her toes"
In other news “a source” close to Labour party HQ overheard a Malcolm Tuckeresque rant about Diane Abbott.
“For * sake don’t let her talk to the press, in fact anyone, til after the * election. She can roll her eyes and say whatever the * she wants after it! Can we put her under house arrest, move her into the * Ecuadorian embassy til it’s all over. Surround her with an entourage wherever she goes. Say it’s down to death threats or she’s been struck down by a mystery illness, which has rendered her deaf and mute til after the election. We can’t have a repeat of that **** millstone taking her shoes and socks off to count on her toes”
Got a link for that? Google's not helping.
I think Binners got his bet on at the right time… those odds will change over the coming weeks.
Maybe. I tend to think the bookies have better insight into what will happen based on the fact they have a lot of money at stake (well more than £10 anyway) and wouldn't be offering 6/1 on something that was likely to actually happen.
I would bet for hung Parliament.
Maybe. I tend to think the bookies have better insight into what will happen based on the fact they have a lot of money at stake (well more than £10 anyway) and wouldn’t be offering 6/1 on something that was likely to actually happen.
I think odds in the bookies are frequently based on what punters have bet not an estimate of what might happen. They just pick odds for everything where on the bets they've already taken they make money whatever happens. I could be wrong.
Maybe the NYTimes just has a problem with Laffer - or maybe with the way his theories have been applied
In the spirit of balance all economic theory (esp macro) is theoretical as it can't be tested in a controlled environment in any meaningful way. So it's slightly a non-productive argument for us to go yes but my Nobel Prize winner says this even if yours says that!
In terms of economic policy it is much more important to focus on a set of economic and fiscal policies rather than just any one measure in isolation such as CT. A Government can generate growth through investment either directly or indirectly through up skilling the workforce for example. Reduce tax burden and/or increasing earnings of the lowest paid flows money through the economy quickly and more locally than increased earnings for the wealthy. It is this basket of measures by which economic policy should be measured.
May was well clear in the polls when I stuck a tenner on a hung parliament at 5/1.
Definitely worth a tenner at 6/1.
I might stick another tenner on some bombshell skeleton coming tumbling out of Borises closet in the next six weeks. God knows there are enough of them.
I bet Cummings went mental when he saw Farages launch this morning. That’s going to have a big impact on the Tories
The polls are only going to go in one direction over the next few weeks IMHO.
Which former colleague was it who said about Johnson ‘everyone loves Boris, apart from those who know him’?
Well the country is about to get to know him...
I'm fighting the temptation to go and campaign for the brexit party, as round here the incumbent tory has a massive majority. Would be nice to stuff that up