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The tories may not have enjoyed the trade deals comments but the papers have all covered it and the “Corbyn will be bad” part is being picked out. No details on what makes having a Corbyn government/Labour policies bad bad but to the voter who can’t see past a headline (Majority of them?) it has just added to Labour’s problems
I don't think many people read papers but if they do Trump likes Boris, doesn't like Corbyn isn't a new story and won't change anyone's mind.
The real winner from this story is LBC, they're become seriously mainstream and this story will grow their market even more. Ian Dale's podcasts are superb. ("For the many" was the gateway drug for me.)
slashing top rate and corporate tax
The former didn't cost any revenue [1] and the latter was essential to remain competitive. Look at the corporation taxes of other nations. As it gets easier to move companies around corporation tax has to lower, it's not inelastic.
Chasing business and wealthy people abroad appeals to a handful of scruffy crusties who already consider themselves outside the economy. It just doesn't appeal to voters in work because ultimately most of us work for businesses and/or wealthy people.
[1]Or raise any when it went up.
[2] Gordon Brown raised the higher rate of tax 8 weeks before he left Government. If it was a good idea I think we can safely say he'd have done it 10 years earlier, not right at the end.
I think the issue for the Tories on the Trump call was that he said no deal with UK under Boris deal. This blows a hole in Tory strategy to get a quick deal with the US
I think the issue for the Tories on the Trump call was that he said no deal with UK under Boris deal. This blows a hole in Tory strategy to get a quick deal with the US
and yet all the news reports of it I saw and heard focused nearly 100% on what he said about corbyn...
Ed Milliband is playing to the fools gallery as much as his brother was when he criticised “fat cat overpaid bosses” - David’s now paid close to a million a year for running a charity.
The younger milliband brother knows perfectly well that long term reductions in corporation tax stimulate economic growth and job creation and ultimately lead to higher tax receipts for the government. At 19% our rate of corporation tax is still substantially higher than Ireland at 12.5% - it’s why Ireland continued to attract so much inward investment.
I'm genuinely looking forward to the launch of the Brexit party's campaign, I anticipate a hungover farage, he'd been out celebrating the fact that trump had deigned to speak to him, with a speech light on any policy detail and heavy on populist and nebulous slogans, like a racist Coldplay.
outofbreath I thought you were a LibDem you are beginning to sound like Tory Cabinet member!
The SMC chaired by a Tory peer set out the extent of poverty in the UK. It's sober reading - I'm not sure you can see this a not think that the economy needs rebalancing. 4m in deep poverty (of 12m in persistent poverty) Even if you don't care about people's lives it's s huge drag on the economy as is the unbalancing of wealth across society
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jul/29/uk-deep-poverty-study-austerity
What are people's thoughts on voting in Scotland?
Say, for someone who is pro-EU, likes the general Labour policies (aside from Brexit related ones), is mostly pro-Scottish independence and has a dislike of the Tories....
and yet all the news reports of it I saw and heard focused nearly 100% on what he said about corbyn…
Exactly, which was my point. He still has an uphill battle against the media.
your guitar hero
Check what is happening in your constituency. If the tories have a sniff then you vote anti tory. Otherwise it does not really matter from a brexit point of view. SNP are going to make a lot of gins.
What are people’s thoughts on voting in Scotland?
Say, for someone who is pro-EU, likes the general Labour policies (aside from Brexit related ones), is mostly pro-Scottish independence and has a dislike of the Tories….
I suspect you already know the answer.
My constituency, in the industrial wastelands of the West of Scotland, has only had 3 MP's in my lifetime.
One was a Labour MP who was fom Bath, a Cambridge graduate and and a Fellow at Harvard University. I don't know anyone who ever met him in the 23 years he was our MP. He stood idly by and did nvirtually nothing whilst Thatcher destroyed the towns he purported to represent.
His replacement Labour MP was an ex-steelworker I've met him dozens of times in a social context and heard him openly boast about how he was raking the cash in for doing virtually nothing. A fat, lazy useless waste of space.
He was ousted in 2015 by the SNP candidate, a neighbour of my Mother in law. I meet her sometimes whilst walking the dog and she comes across as a thoroughly decent and compassionate human being who seems to be in it to help people.
She'll be getting my vote.
SNP are going to make a lot of gins.
You'd think it'd be whisky, wouldn't you?
I think the issue for the Tories on the Trump call was that he said no deal with UK under Boris deal. This blows a hole in Tory strategy to get a quick deal with the US
There's a bigger issue for them in that it looks like they're dancing to Trump and Farage's tune. We have the spectacle of Farage almost dictating to Boris what he should do at the behest of Trump. Add this to incidents like Boris being chased out of hospitals and the optics are that the tories are not in control and are reacting to events. That's not a good look for an election campaign. It's not a surprise, we all know Boris has a reputation for chaos and disorganisation and so far that's exactly how it's panning out.
My MP is Tommy Sheppard (SNP) - he's always seemed alright.
I do feel like I'd like to vote Labour... but also, I don't think my vote would make a difference to them getting in.
I also have this kind of sinking feeling of just not wanting to be involved with all the Little Englander bollocks. And by that... just leaving the UK behind
outofbreath I thought you were a LibDem
In 2019 a vast number of people who don't especially define themselves as lib dems will be voting lib dem.
sound like Tory Cabinet member!
Is advocating a competitive rate of corporation tax an especially Tory policy? AFAIK every country in the world picks a competitive rate for that.
As for higher rate of tax, is picking the sweet spot on the laffer curve a 'Tory' thing? Almost all countries seem to do it. (Including Scotland who have chosen a higher rate a whopping *one* % higher FFS!!!)
Oh my word, I have heard that Boris is taking over Alan Duncan's safe seat for Melton and Rutland. I really don't want to see that porky piece of work around town. I wonder how the old dears around here will explain away his polyamory and deceit, let alone flogging off the NHS.
I genuinely think Trump didn't know of, or couldn't remember, any of Labour's policies and he didn't know the position on WTO and the NHS. He's still reported in a serious way in the media, unbelievable really.
There’s a bigger issue for them in that it looks like they’re dancing to Trump and Farage’s tune. We have the spectacle of Farage almost dictating to Boris what he should do at the behest of Trump. Add this to incidents like Boris being chased out of hospitals and the optics are that the tories are not in control and are reacting to events. That’s not a good look for an election campaign. It’s not a surprise, we all know Boris has a reputation for chaos and disorganisation and so far that’s exactly how it’s panning out.
Indeed. Things looking bleak for the Tories, if anything even worse for Labour.
Lib dems are the only Remain party, they're going to be harvesting votes hand over fist.
Is advocating a competitive rate of corporation tax an especially Tory policy?
Not thinking about the consequences and arguing for a race to the bottom does seem a right wing thing.
As for higher rate of tax, is picking the sweet spot on the laffer curve a ‘Tory’ thing?
The use of laffer curve as doctrine does seem to be a hard right thing. Very few seem to spot it is a curve and only use it as an argument to lower as opposed to raise taxes.
Lib dems are the only Remain party,
What is it about the current crop of vocal libdem supporters that they seem willing to lie almost as much as Johnson?
Not thinking about the consequences and arguing for a race to the bottom does seem a right wing thing.
The use of laffer curve as doctrine does seem to be a hard right thing. Very few seem to spot it is a curve and only use it as an argument to lower as opposed to raise taxes.
Well let's put some numbers on it then. If the current corporation tax rate is wrong, what number are the non-hard right UK parties advocating? Or if they haven't announced what value did they advocate in 2017?
The use of laffer curve as doctrine does seem to be a hard right thing. Very few seem to spot it is a curve and only use it as an argument to lower as opposed to raise taxes.
You reckon? The reason business rates on Bricks and Mortar businesses is excruciating is because it's in-elastic. That's a classic example of the laffer curve leading to excruciatingly high tax. Same with vehicle fuel. The reason they can get away with eye watering tax on petrol (is it 75%) is because use is in-elastic. All classic examples of the laffer curve resulting in eye watering taxes.
If working out the highest revenue base on the laffer curve is wrong, what mechanism *should* be used to maximise tax take? I'm all ears because AFAICT anything you can suggest will just be the laffer curve with a different name!
The laffer curve is proven bollox that can never be demonstrated.
What is it about the current crop of vocal libdem supporters that they seem willing to lie almost as much as Johnson?
They are desperate for a sniff of government again and, as in 2010, will do anything to try and make that happen. All they do though is give succour to the Tories.
Blatant lies, jumping into bed with homophobic xenophobes, wholesale adoption of Tory policies, there is likely no level to which they won't stoop, in a quest to see Swinson in a governmental car.
The laffer curve is proven bollox that can never be demonstrated.
I'll demonstrate it now:
You accept that if you set income tax at a rate of 0pc you get 0 revenue?
You accept that if you set income tax at a rate of 100pc you get 0 revenue?
You accept there will be at least one point in the middle where revenue higher than zero?
That's it then. Demonstrated.
Again, as I asked above if you were looking to maximise tax revenue what other mechanism would you use to work out how much you could get away with? It has to be the laffer curve, there is nothing else.
I’ll demonstrate it now:
You accept that if you set income tax at a rate of 0pc you get 0 revenue?
You accept that if you set income tax at a rate of 100pc you get 0 revenue?
You accept there will be at least one point in the middle where revenue higher than zero?That’s it then. Demonstrated.
You know perfectly well what he meant.
Well let’s put some numbers on it then
Go for it. Remember it was you announcing it was "sweet spot". So how exactly did you decide that?
Its not for me to provide the evidence for your claim.
They are desperate for a sniff of government again and, as in 2010, will do anything to try and make that happen. All they do though is give succour to the Tories.
They can't this time. They're revoke and the Tories are Leave. The only compromise is a second ref which can only happen if Boris resigns. I think most remainers would prefer revoke but would be content with that result. ...but if they want power the easiest way for them to get it is to work with Labour because Labour's position is far closer to theirs, they could cheerfully agree to a 2nd ref. In either even Corbyn/Boris would have to go.
Given what happened to their vote share last time they were in power the LibDems would be far more likely to use revoke as an excuse to avoid government with either party.
Remember it was you announcing it was “sweet spot”. So how exactly did you decide that?
Because it's so similar to other similar countries. All the civil servants of all these nations have worked out the best point to be at in corporation tax terms and they all seem to be in broad agreement.
Ditto, income tax. England/Wales has picked 40pc, Scotland has chosen 41pc. It suggest both sides think that ~40pc is the right place to be.
If working out the highest revenue base on the laffer curve is wrong, what mechanism *should* be used to maximise tax take? I’m all ears because AFAICT anything you can suggest will just be the laffer curve with a different name!
You know perfectly well what he meant.
I'm pretty sure he meant: "The laffer curve is proven bollox that can never be demonstrated."
Again, as I asked above if you were looking to maximise tax revenue what other mechanism would you use to work out how much you could get away with? It has to be the laffer curve, there is nothing else.
Didn't the treasury do some work to find the impact of the 5% tax rise we had, and found it failed to raise the revenue expected?
Because it’s so similar to other similar countries.
Nope that doesnt show that at all. For example it could simply show they were vulnerable to lobbying by special interest groups.
I’m all ears because AFAICT anything you can suggest will just be the laffer curve with a different name!
You keep repeating this as a religious statement. The point is simply screaming laffer curve is meaningless. You need to back it up with how, exactly, it would apply to this country in this specific scenario. Not just shout LAFFER curve and announce victory. Which is what is normally spurted out by the hard right.
Didn’t the treasury do some work to find the impact of the 5% tax rise we had, and found it failed to raise the revenue expected?
I'm sure that happens all the time.
England/Wales has picked 40pc, Scotland has chosen 41pc.
The Scottish Government has come under a stream of fire for being "the most highly taxed part of the UK" (untrue of course). I suspect they'd go above 41% in an independent Scotland where higher band tax payers wouldn't use some address trickery to avoid paying it 🙂
I’m pretty sure he meant: “The laffer curve is proven bollox that can never be demonstrated.”
I'm pretty sure you know what he meant, and all you're doing is engaging in sophistry to try and get one over on him. It's pathetic.
All the civil servants of all these nations have worked out the best point to be at in corporation tax terms and they all seem to be in broad agreement.
The G20 % difference between top and bottom is 69%. For the EU it's 109%.
Ditto, income tax. England/Wales has picked 40pc, Scotland has chosen 41pc. It suggest both sides think that ~40pc is the right place to be.
Perhaps you could tell us what % of the UK population pays an effective income tax rate of 40 or 41%?
Back to the election.
I do agree with the brexit party saying we need a constitutional change, and I reckon they could stuff the tories with the way they are attacking boris' deal.
I hope they don't get a pact with the tories, but if they do I reckon the tories are doomed in the future. It should make them horrifically toxic.
I suspect they’d go above 41% in an independent Scotland where higher band tax payers wouldn’t use some address trickery to avoid paying it 🙂
So you're saying if they go above 41% higher band tax payers would use some address trickery to avoid paying it dropping revenue and that therefore 41% is a pretty good spot to be at.
Hmmm, if only there were some kind of graph with a curve that describes that graphically. 😀
The G20 % difference between top and bottom is 69%. For the EU it’s 109%.
Off the top of my head if Ireland is 12.5pc then 109%s makes the spread %12.5 to a shade over 25pc. From memory the UK is some about 20%? [1] So we're bang in the middle of the spread. And people are saying this is wrong because "class war"? Seems far more likely to me it's right for us and deviating from it to any large degree would be a mistake.
[1] I CBA to google but you get the point.
Off the top of my head if Ireland is 12.5pc then 109%s makes the spread %12.5 to a shade over 25pc. From memory the UK is some about 20%? [1] So we’re bang in the middle of the spread. And people are saying this is wrong because “class war”? Seems far more likely to me it’s right for us and deviating from it to any large degree would be a mistake.
You said "All the civil servants of all these nations have worked out the best point to be at in corporation tax terms and they all seem to be in broad agreement."
They're not in broad agreement - there's a 109% difference.
I hope they don’t get a pact with the tories
I doubt there will be a pact, but Brexitcast reckoned they might only stand in 20 seats which would have the same effect as a pact - avoiding a split in the Leave vote.
You said “All the civil servants of all these nations have worked out the best point to be at in corporation tax terms and they all seem to be in broad agreement.”
They’re not in broad agreement – there’s a 109% difference.
~12.5pc to ~25pc with the UK somewhere in the middle at ~20pc sounds like broad agreement.
109% difference sounds like a big difference.
Maybe we should write to "More or Less" and ask how we should be presenting the numbers to remove bias?
~12.5pc to ~25pc with the UK somewhere in the middle at ~20pc sounds like broad agreement.
The top number is more than twice as big as the bottom number.
109% difference sounds like a big difference.
Because it's a big difference. If I wanted to introduce bias I would've expressed it as a percentage increase from bottom to top, which is 240%.
How are you getting on with the number of people paying an effective tax rate of 40%?
I hope they don’t get a pact with the tories
I doubt there will be a pact, but Brexitcast reckoned they might only stand in 20 seats which would have the same effect as a pact – avoiding a split in the Leave vote.
even if they did it could be significant as it'll be 20 seats in 'labour leave heartlands' that Tories will focusing on as well. Call me an optimist but that could be decisive, particularly if the concentrate all their dodgy resources on those 20 seats. They'll still be taking chunks from each other (hopefully).
Looks like the Scottish Greens will be standing in 16 seats, 13 of which had a SNP majority at the last GE. Likelihood is that a few of those will go Tory as a result. Confirms their pro-Brexit stance I guess.
Potentially contesting every seat:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50261647
If it turns out to be true that seems like a very bad idea, unless the BP would rather have remain than the current deal.
Or does the Brexit party think that their niche as a party and their EU jobs evaporate if Brexit happens and are actually secret remainers for that reason.
Either way, BP contesting every seat has to be good for the Libdems.
Looks like the Scottish Greens will be standing in 16 seats, 13 of which had a SNP majority at the last GE. Likelihood is that a few of those will go Tory as a result. Confirms their pro-Brexit stance I guess.
Agree, but to be fair they're fairly open about it:
https://policy.greenparty.org.uk/eu.html
EU301 The present EU structures are fundamentally flawed.
EU310 The Green Party believes that the excessive influence of the Commission and its associated bodies compared to the Council and Parliament is both undemocratic and unaccountable.
The CJEU should be given a statute which defines and limits its powers
The CJEU should no longer be allowed to promote European integration in its judgements
EU401 The single market may be summarised as a massive restructuring of capital around a small number of large corporations and financial institutions
(Word is they won’t necessarily push that particular policy through, particularly how you phrased it.)
Well it might be pragmatic to drop it then, for fear of it backfiring in the way you suggest.
Either way, BP contesting every seat has to be good for
the Libdemspretty much everyone, whether they know it or not.
Confirms their pro-Brexit stance I guess.
A quick check shows they are pro referendum with a remain option. Should they only stand in those constituencies where the SNP didnt get a majority? Seems a bit flawed considering how close some of those were.