Morning all, after 2 days climbing we're back into the flat lands. Lets see what's in store.
At 203 kilometres, the 19th stage of the Tour de France travels on rolling terrain from Mourenx, in the foothills of the Pyrenees, to Libourne, near Bordeaux.
It has been awhile since Mourenx last saw a Tour de France peloton. Following finishes in 1969 and 1970, La Grande Boucle set off from the village in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques department in 1999 and 2005.
The riders head in an almost straight line to the north for a likely bunch sprint in Libourne, east of Bordeaux.
Libourne was used twice as a finish in the Tour de France, both times in a time trial. Jacques
Anquetil powered to triumph in 1957, while Panasonic won the chrono race for teams in 1992.Groupama-FDJ rider Mickaël Delage is born in Libourne.
The first three riders on the line gain time bonuses of 10, 6 and 4 seconds.
So, in theory, a sprint day, but with few sprinters left who'll do the chasing if a break goes?
The Contenders: who is Mark Cavendish‘s biggest rival today, Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Fenix), Cees Bol (DSM)… or all the teams who have no hope of a sprint win today and know today is their last chance of a stage win? Deceuninck-Quickstep and Alpecin-Fenix have to control and chase today and that’s a tall order but if only a small group of riders from wildcard teams manage to go clear then it’ll be a long day before the inevitable sprint. Cavendish is the obvious pick but as we saw in Carcassonne the sprints are getting more ragged and he’s not winning by bike lengths like old.
For a breakaway Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) is the archetypal rider, a finisseur who is powerful on the flat, he could go solo late into the stage or clean up from a small group. Think Nils Politt (Bora-Hansgrohe) and maybe Kasper Asgreen (Deceuninck-Quickstep) who can hitch a ride and sit on citing his sprinter. Michał Kwiatkowski (Ineos), Ivan Garcia Cortina (Movistar), Magnus Cort (EF-Nippo) and Oliver Naesen (Ag2r Citroën) fit the bill as riders who could win from a move.
Cav must be really tired and I would love him to win and make it 35, but beating the record on Sunday in Paris would be even sweeter.
Worst case is if Michael Matthews manages to slip away - Cav doesn't actually need to win but DQS do need to stop Matthews gaining any points at Cav's expense.
So I think it'll be absolutely mental from the gun, with a break not likely to go clear until after the first intermediate sprint which is only 54km in anyway.
Then it might settle down a bit for the standard break goes, break gets brought back, sprint.
If it's a true bunch sprint then - baring disaster - Cav; no-one else has the team tactics or speed to finish it off although if he's got an eye on Paris and is relatively safe points wise, maybe he'll back out of it if it gets too choppy up front. The problem with a lack of proper leadout is it does open the door for all manner of less experienced second tier sprinters to think they can have a go and they rarely have the raw ability of the top tier guys.
Unfortunately, everyone will spend the day banging on about win #35 since with all the other jerseys sewn up, there's not much else to discuss.
I reckon DQS should go all out for the early intermediate sprint, then let a break go (sans matthews). And save Cavs glorious 35th for the Champs Elysees 🏆
Serious question; if you were a sprinter and Cav was around you looking tired on the Champs, would you ease off the Gas, or be THAT rider that denied him immortality amongst cycling legendary?
I can't help thinking Cav would want to win it the hard way, but would the Peleton silently agree to allow him THAT picture over the Parisian finish line, in green? After all, there's unlikely to be another time.
Cav and/or all the DQS riders, to take the intermediate sprint then ease off and save himself for Sunday.
The choice of immortality on the biggest stage of all or breaking the record on a no name stage has got to be an easy one surely!
They're competitive athletes, there's no easing off for the old guys.
The chance of a win on Champs Elysee would be too tempting and could make a career
Because Pogacar is a done deal I am just caring about Cav.
What an amazing Tour for him and his team.
Been interesting watching this year as the usual suspects haven't always been 'in charge'.
Been interesting watching this year as the usual suspects haven’t always been ‘in charge’.
I think the actual racing for GC has been massively blunted by the loss of Roglic and the effective neutering of Ineos early on. Ineos then became a sort of Team UAE sub-division almost - Pogacar was able to simply ride the coat-tails of their train and humiliate them at every turn.
With everything bar the green jersey settled, the TT on Saturday, which I imagine the organisers thought might give a super-tense finish like last year's Roglic/Pogacar duel, will just be a damp squib - there's literally no point in any of it, the time gaps are too big for a 30km TT to overturn. Just going through the motions.
It seems like a risk to 'save' breaking the record until Champs-Elysee? If he has a chance to grab the record today, surely he will?
It seems like a risk to ‘save’ breaking the record until Champs-Elysee? If he has a chance to grab the record today, surely he will?
Agreed and then a shot at 36 on the Champs.
Yeah, I can't see DQS sitting today out unless the break goes and no one else is interested. Its not today or Paris so there's not reason not to aim for 36 there - and 35 anywhere is better than 34 and miss in Paris.
I'd love to see ineos hammer it today and try to shake pog, can't see it happening but if they could get carapaz up into a quick break would be brilliant and force UAE to try and remember what their team looks like outside of the bus.
Crash! Cav, most of DQS and Colbrelli down but all quickly back up again thankfully.
All back in good time for the intermediate.
Id imagine Cav would want the win today to ease pressure off sunday, although he must be knackered.
sunday could indeed be last chance saloon though if caleb ewan is back next year
why has Greipel been so anonymous? And what happened to Marcel Kittel? These were the next generation of sprinters but Cav has eclipsed them all
All looking a bit nervy today isn't it?
Pogacar taking on the role of [i]patron[/i] of the peloton, telling Ineos to stop attacking when there's riders down
Why has Greipel been so anonymous? And what happened to Marcel Kittel?
Kittel retired. Midway through 2019 after a good start to the season he just packed it in citing fatigue. He took an extended break a few years earlier as well on similar grounds.
Works as an ambassador for the German brand Rose Bikes now.
Greipel isn't in the TdF this year which might explain why you haven't seen him... 😉
Rides for Arkea-Samsic, I think they were hoping Nairo Quintana might do something and having a big sprinter wanting leadouts isn't helpful if you're hedging your bets on a climber.
Bit weird watching the race yesterday, with Ineos piling it on at the front, as though they had a leader to set things up for, whereas Carapaz was clearly not up to the job. They may as well have saved the effort!
Ineos will have to come back another year and see if Thomas can remain on his bike long enough to be a contender.
Greipel isn’t in the TdF this year which might explain why you haven’t seen him…Rides for Arkea-Samsic
I think Israel Start-Up Nation may dispute that. Greipel is still in the peleton and seems to have changed from a pure sprinter to someone who does some of the dirty work before the cameras start to role. He is 100% in this tour.
It's what makes Cav so special, he's seen off generations of sprinters.
I think Israel Start-Up Nation may dispute that. Greipel is still in the peleton and seems to have changed from a pure sprinter to someone who does some of the dirty work before the cameras start to role. He is 100% in this tour.
See, I knew there was a reason these threads were left to you! I thought he was still Arkea-Samsic, couldn't see him in a red jersey...
I stand corrected (and embarrassed!)
(That said, Israel Start Up Nation have been pretty anonymous the entire Tour bar Dan Martin's little dig off the front yesterday...)
A few days ago I wondered if Dan Martin was actually riding this year's edition. It was only when my wife looked up the rider roster that we realised he was still there. Yesterday's attempt to bridge up to the front group was the first time he's been mentioned all race.
These were the next generation of sprinters but Cav has eclipsed them all
See above, but really this shows what is incredible about the Cav comeback. Sprinters are not usually long at the top. Cav has been at the pointy end while several generations of rivals have come and gone.
I've just done some utterly pointless maths:
https://twitter.com/mrstevious/status/1416019615516348418?s=20
(i've probably done a lot of pointless unit conversions in there, please be kind)
no win for mark today... it's going to the break today.
Was there an incident? I stopped paying attention for 20 minutes or so and the gap went from about a minute to 8 minutes
Re sprinters hall of fame /perspective on Cav
Just looked at Abdoujaparov's TdF record
First/last win: 1991-1995
The reign of Tashkent terror only lasted 5 years*
*Just wanted to get that pun in
Was there an incident?
ISN lost interest in chasing... and no one else could be bothered
Ah thought gap had increased really quick but I probably didnt check for longer thna i thought
no win for mark today… it’s going to the break today.
20 riders in the break too so all points gone at the finish. Cav can just roll over the line at the back if he wants to save himself (and the team) a bit.
This just adds to the whole "will he, won't he" tension of the Champs Elysees for Cav now for number 25, i will be crossing fingers and toes and have bitten tongue down to a stump, by the time they hit paris by this rate
Bit of a meh stage to be honest apart from the frenetic start.
Slovenia have brought their A game to the Tour!
Edit: the entire bunch are going to be really quite close to the cut off time!
I did not like that finish line celebration 1 little bit...
hmmm, not sure on the finish line celebration and interview. Yes, it is an intrusion, but surely the answer is to say 'sure it's an intrusion but we welcome it and know it's necessary to keep proving that the race is now clean'
Exactly that, sends completely the wrong message.
2 stage wins, ha ha ha ha
What a cock with that celebration. You have just won 2 stages in the tour and now people will just be talking about that
Celebrate how you like mate. Indeed, enjoy it while it's still written in the record books..
Will this be then, finally Cofidis's first stage win at the TdF for 13 years?? Hope so.
@reggiegasket - I feel like you're not getting enough love for your Count Mohoric joke. Please be reassured that it's excellent.
Lunge
I did not like that finish line celebration 1 little bit…
I whole-heartedly agree. It's possible he didn't know. He's a professional - I think he should know.
Are you guys following the Lantern Rouge sufff on YouTube?worth a look.
Edit, to add something positive. Or less negative. Looks good for Cav, unless a mechanical really screws things.
I think that the stage wins and the jersey are such a fairytale, I don't care about 35. He's a legend.
I think that the stage wins and the jersey are such a fairytale, I don’t care about 35. He’s a legend.
Don't you find his return to form suspicious?
No comments on Cav’s exchange with the mechanic? I suppose you can excuse him for being wound up, but that’s quite a dolly drop for an adult 🧐
I'm always suspicious, that's the price of watching this sport for the last 20-odd years, there's always the history and the nagging doubt.
But no - on balance
4 or 5 years away from GT racing due to illnesses and injuries gives recuperation time
He's absolutely not as quick as he was - winning by wheels, not multiple lengths
He's got the best lead out by far, he's sprinted less distance in 4 wins than to the end of my road
He's not had to beat the same quality of riders
He's hungry again, and it's his nous and desire as much as his speed that have got the wins (possibly driven by wanting to deliver on the chance Lefevre has given and not let down his team mates who've backed him so well - there's no backward steps allowed)
The mountain stages haven't been as hard as they could have been and he's had someone to see him through them every step of the way.
****
OK, if he wasn't British then maybe I'd have a bigger list of eyebrow raises, but that's why I think it's genuine.
Yes, it is an intrusion, but surely the answer is to say ‘sure it’s an intrusion but we welcome it and know it’s necessary to keep proving that the race is now clean’
That's pretty much what he said, whilst expressing his annoyance at having his belongings rifled through. I think the French authorities do this from time to time to support their action from years ago writing anti-doping into law. BTW is it always in Pau?