[Closed] the bike industry is suffering

I’ve not bought a new MTB as I’m now worried that if I buy a 650b with through axles it will be obsolete in 2 years because everything will be 750c with wheels held on by electromagnets!

I also won’t be ever buying a new road bike if all you can get is carbon disc-braked frames. Will be getting a custom built rourke with proper brake calipers and keeping my road bike as an object of beauty.

Oh, and well done to all the media for stirring up all the stories of doom and gloom over the past 12 months

the truth is that nobody makes much profit on a £4k+ dandyhorses and ego chariots...

mmmmhhhh
This I doubt.

I suspect the other way around: on a 8 k bike the manufacturer earns 2 k or 3 k? Or more?

For a small brand it's difficult to make money on a 1 k or 2 k mountain bike?

The push for £4k+ mountain bikes has a reason...
Try to transform bikes into a status symbol and a BRAND thing / fashion product ...

Suspect:
This is

the truth is that nobody makes much profit on a £4k+ dandyhorses and ego chariots...

really 4500 quid bike reduced to 2700 quid bike?? seems like a lot doesn't it

if its been sat in the shop a year and hasnt shifted?

if its gone in 30 days someone just made their money providing it doesn't come back in many pieces 6 months later when you have to support that customer through their anxiety luckily failure rates are low but without seeing the numbers you could argue 1800 quid is a lot of profit if nothing goes wrong.

the odd thing is if you saw an OEM pricelist where a rear shock is 60 quid then you might think that industry is making loadsa money, however once something is sold it still needs support which is why whilst you can make a frame for 200 quid you dont sell it for 300 quid (unless your doing it for a hobby and god only knows from the figures some do it for the love) just in case there's a warranty claim down the line

wrong!

I'll admit I'm no bike industry insider but I very much doubt even the big brands shift 1/10th as many 8k wunderbikes as they do sub £500 models, perhaps 'profit' was the wrong term, 'volume' is more like it, and the article from the OP was focused on a reduction in the number of bikes sold, not the profit margin on each unit...

Question for any retailers, would you rather be shifting a handful of 8k Gucci bikes each week or a hundred £300 hybrids?

im surprised we are on page 4 and no one mentioned brexit yet

Brexit has already been mentioned...

Brexit has already been mentioned...

bastards

i cant believe we are on page 5 (excite)

[quote=cookeaa ]
Question for any retailers, would you rather be shifting a handful of 8k Gucci bikes each week or a hundred £300 hybrids?
A hundred £300 hybrids that each need to be ordered, paid for, unboxed, partially built, adjusted, PDI'd, added to the POS system/inventory then sold, given a free service and any other post-sales chat doesn't leave much room for margin. Much of the low-end stuff also comes in free of any grease, loose headsets etc.

Much of the low-end stuff also comes in free of any grease, loose headsets etc

So do most of the complete built bikes from the majors.

@whitestone - I'll ignore the fact that the Solaris is a hardtail (so really a different bike) and apply the same comparison of my Mount Vision to my mid 90s Raleigh Stonefly (also ~a decade period).

1996- v-brakes, rigid.
2006- discs, full suspension at similar weight [+threadless headset, external bb, and other small niceties].

In real terms the Mount Vision was slightly more, but not massively.

I think there have been improvements in stiffness/geometry in the last decade. Also I bought a Fox CTD shock in 2015 and XT discs this year and sure they are an improvement too. However, for me these are more like tweaks and don't change where/when/what I ride (whereas the 90s rigid -> Mount Vision did).

Thanks to the new "standards" my MV frame has almost no monetary value and I'm planning to keep it longer. So far I've had no problem buying 9 speed cassettes/chain rings and 26" tubes/tyres 🙂 I completely rebuilt my fork damper this year using standard "off the shelf" seals.

I do feel that compared to most industries, mountain bikes have came on hugely in even the last 5 years.

My car is an 11 year old mk2 focus and compared to the brand new cars in the work pool, there's no real difference in feel or performance. There's some nice features like built in sat nav etc and the engines have came on hugely in terms of economy but the actual feel of the cars is very similar. That said I've never had the chance to drive any real high end performance cars, they might have a greater difference.

Whereas riding a bike that's 5 years old is a bit crap compared to a modern one. 26" wheels feel tiny and get bogged down in anything rough compared to a 29er, then you have decent 1x systems, dropper posts, decent air sprung damping etc. Even boost has helped a lot on lt 29ers. I remember demoing a tallboy ltc and making the tyre rub on the chainstays in corners.

So yeah, prices are getting a bit silly, imo bikes have came on hugely, which sort of helps to justify it.

All the people saying the retro grouches are wrong because newer standard bikes are better are missing the point. If they are disenfranchised and actively choosing not to buy a new bike through cynicism then the effect is genuine. It might be a small amount of the market drop, but they are real and have been turned away from being consumers.

And the effect is obvious in disc road, after maybe 2 years of Q/R and post mount calipers we've gone bolt-thru and flat mount, so a lot of people bought into the next big thing only for it to become obsolete (and their bikes available for 40+% off new) by the end of the year. The major difference is roadies are even more conservative so I reckon rim brakes will be around a while yet.

If it is, I can't help feeling that it is self inflicted / bought about by the big corporate companies who drive a lot of this change. The likes of Trek and SRAM seem to be huge players in the Boost thing plus SRAM introducing shit like torque caps on their forks. Luckily a few of the smaller companies still try and make stuff backwards compatible (e.g. Hope.

The march of the new 'standards' does seem relentless these days. 1 1/8th steelers were around for ages, tapered came in but a tapered frame could still take your old forks. 104bcd chainrings were around for ages after the faff with 5 bolt now there's various direct mount options and about a million BCD's....SRAM don't even stick with one! My X11 cranks use a different BCD to X01....nuts.

I've traditionally swapped frames lots and transferred my bits over but I'm not sure I'll be able to do that next time around. Frames and odd bits like headsets and BB's are expensive enough but add in wheels and a fork and it's prohibitive. I won't buy a complete bike because I typically like what I like (I'm out vey about bars, saddles etc).

There's still plenty riding but I think people are keeping stuff longer especially guys like me who'd swap frames. The changes now are getting less dramatic so it's harder to see the benefits and if people are feeling the pinch I guess it's a harder sell.

I've traditionally swapped frames lots and transferred my bits over but I'm not sure I'll be able to do that next time around.

One idea where I don't know if it's stupid or not...:

guess you need around 250 "orders" to get extremely good rebates and "your custom frame" (frame based on existing bike model but with desired modifications).
Possible that we don't use our purchasing power in the best way possible?
Just brainstorming: 250 bikers with similar taste get - via internet - together, define an (aluminium) mountain bike and go out asking for bids.
What I guess: they get very, very good offers!

Rebates for drive train, wheels, hubs in the range of 85 percent maybe?
Rebates for high quality shocks, forks in the range of 75 percent maybe?
Full suspension aluminium frame - based onto existing model but with specified changes in the range of 150 bucks maybe?

Challenge: to get it organized.
Challenge: to get an insurance to cover the risk of the buyers and the risk of the supplier.

Could imagine that - when ordering 250 bikes - you might end paying maybe around 800 ... 1200 bucks for an excellent trail bike. Bit more for an excellent Enduro bike.
All bits and pieces like specified...

big corporate companies who drive a lot of this change

in this case - for the 250 bikes - these companies would loose power?

I'm still struggling with this discussion. Where has the line in the sand been drawn? Nothing better has been made since the XYZ in 2012?

So people aren't buying new bikes because of pointless new standards, but they'd be buying new bikes if they were the same as their old ones? Eh?

all kind of interesting arguments in this discussion.
Yes:

I'm still struggling with this discussion

The conclusion is - maybe - way too many

pointless new standards

which were - maybe - created to make the 2 year old bikes quickly obsolete?
And the customers lost the trust into this type of game?

Not sure by myself.
But very possible so...?
😕

250 bikers with similar taste get - via internet - together, define an (aluminium) mountain bike and go out asking for bids.
What I guess: they get very, very good offers!

While I quite like the idea, there are pitfalls, for starters are these 250 riders all the same height/build? Or will you be organising a range of sizes? Which particular group of "retro grouches" are you looking to satisfy? The ones bemoaning the demise of 135mm QRs or 142 x12mm bolt through? Seatpost sizes? Those who want stealth droppers accommodating or those who still think droppers are a fad? 44mm head tube? Or full on 44-56 taper? And then there's going to be agreeing a set of numbers for reach/head & seat angles, BB drop chain stay length, and just how "retro" are we talking wheel size wise? 26er? 26er that will accommodate 27.5? What about the 29erists? How about offering some sort of swapouts that allows you to tweak the back end to suit your chosen wheels/axles? And some arse will inevitably decide steel is real and pull out...

I reckon it would be a fraught exercise, hence most of the existing companies have just gone "bollox to it, we might as well just fall in line with SRAM and Co"

I'm still struggling with this discussion. Where has the line in the sand been drawn? Nothing better has been made since the XYZ in 2012?

Dropper posts. There has been no significant improvement in mountain biking since dropper posts came out.

My boost wheeled 2018 bike is excellent, yeah it's not backwards compatible with any of my other stuff, so my old carbon wheels are being sold, which sucks, but I'll save up for some new boost ones eventually.
In the meantime in stuck with a brilliant bike that's a step up from the brilliant bike I last bought in 2014.

The recent price rises have kept me at the base spec model, tho, which kinda sucks but I didn't like Brexiters anyway 😉

Ever since I lusted after my first rigid chromolly Kona in the 90s mtbing has been a ****in expensive hobby.

The other side of that, I really enjoy riding my new 29er but no more than my Hahanna, its better but my enjoyments the about same.

On road bikes almost every part of my 2005 Allez is compatible with my 2013 Bianchi. The Allez will be getting an upgrade groupset and wheels this year because short of spending 3k I cant buy anything better that doesnt look isnt compromised with cable discs, old standard or mis matched axles, half groupset, poor wheels etc.
I think the markets just trying to rinse a bit too much out the customers at the moment and they can smell it.

crashtestmonkey - Member
All the people saying the retro grouches are wrong because newer standard bikes are better are missing the point. If they are disenfranchised and actively choosing not to buy a new bike through cynicism then the effect is genuine. It might be a small amount of the market drop, but they are real and have been turned away from being consumers.

Don’t really understand hate on torque caps.

Yes, they’re just trying to reinvent the 20mm axle feel with a 15mm unit, but they’re entirely optional. You can mount a regular wheel in a torque cap fork with no ill effects, you just don’t get the stiffness increase.

One idea where I don't know if it's stupid or not...:

guess you need around 250 "orders" to get extremely good rebates and "your custom frame" (frame based on existing bike model but with desired modifications).
Possible that we don't use our purchasing power in the best way possible?
Just brainstorming: 250 bikers with similar taste get - via internet - together, define an (aluminium) mountain bike and go out asking for bids.
What I guess: they get very, very good offers!

Rebates for drive train, wheels, hubs in the range of 85 percent maybe?
Rebates for high quality shocks, forks in the range of 75 percent maybe?
Full suspension aluminium frame - based onto existing model but with specified changes in the range of 150 bucks maybe?

Challenge: to get it organized.
Challenge: to get an insurance to cover the risk of the buyers and the risk of the supplier.

Could imagine that - when ordering 250 bikes - you might end paying maybe around 800 ... 1200 bucks for an excellent trail bike. Bit more for an excellent Enduro bike.
All bits and pieces like specified...

you mean like this one

https://www.mtb-news.de/forum/f/internet-community-bike-2-0-powered-by-alutech.264/

im not sure why you would expect anyone to give you a bike for less than it would cost them to make though, the common theme in bike making is everyone wants you to make it for sweet FA

oh and herding cats springs to mind

BruceWee - Member

Dropper posts. There has been no significant improvement in mountain biking since dropper posts came out.

- Tubeless-ready tyres? As opposed to bodging a regular tyre.
- 1xN with N>=10 and sprockets with 40 or more teeth?
- Oval chainrings
- Lemon drizzle cake.

enigmas - Member
mountain bikes have came on hugely in even the last 5 years.
Whereas riding a bike that's 5 years old is a bit crap compared to a modern one.

A whole five years old? That old?? With those crap 26” wheels maybe, the ones that get “bogged down” over anything rough? Compared to those new 27” ones that is, because that extra inch makes all the difference.

Yep add in bikes that take advantage of 1x with better chainlines and rear ends, the fact my cheap wheels go up first time with a track pump is an awesome step forward and it's becoming normal not the exception.
Cranks you don't need a collection of special tools to fit and remove!

From what I've seen and found the only thing that is causing a huge headache for backwards compatibility it 1 1/8th straight steerer forks so snap them up 2nd hand and get some seal kits and look after what you have.

But seriously if I was still riding 26" at this point I'd be quickly adding up what the cost of a drivetrain, fork and some more spares was going to cost in the next couple of years and seeing what that got me in the new market. Jump on some demo bikes and decide if you want to run your current frame into the ground before a weld fails of something fatigues.

Other than that go enjoy riding bikes and stop thinking they are all out to get you!

Compared to those new 27” ones that is, because that extra inch makes all the difference.

Look at the bikes rolling around things like the EWS they didn't really exist in a way that you could have that strength and reliability and be able to pedal it up those hills regardless of the wheel size.

The only solid tubeless a while back was the UST systems with really heavy tyres and one rim type, now we have good reliable tubeless across entry level bikes.

bencooper

But the bike industry has never been particularly profitable...

Re the above.

I remember your shop on the switchback having a sign on the door which stated:

' We don't fix ordinary bikes'

You meant it too.

This thread seems to have descended into mikesmith just slating anyone that doesn't hop on every new bike 'advance'. I say this as someone who is happy to keep purchasing, as money really isn't a fuss to me and I consider any money spent on bikes good money. But I think there is merit to;

'If they are disenfranchised and actively choosing not to buy a new bike through cynicism then the effect is genuine.'

It doesn't make people idiot's or thick not to fully embrace any bike niche or improvement in technology. People's lives also change, so money spent on a 10mm wider front hub may well be better spent elsewhere. They might choose it's easier to poo poo a development as easier than accepting there financial realities are changing, or quite simply they might think it's not worth the spend. But the industry currently doesn't seem to recognise that people are disenfranchised and chooses to just court new customer bases or converting existing customers. Which is fine if it keeps the sales high enough.

Yes, they’re just trying to reinvent the 20mm axle feel with a 15mm unit, but they’re entirely optional. You can mount a regular wheel in a torque cap fork with no ill effects, you just don’t get the stiffness increase

... but it's OK because now SRAM are offering us new, improved, stiffer interfaces by bodging 15mm hubs back up to 20 ? 😆

Tubeless ready ust tyres were 10 years ago.
1x is a simplification for frame designers at the expense of gaps between gears.
Oval chainrings date back over 20 years, but if you have a smooth pedaling style they’re not a good fit.

Geometry and wide bars have had the biggest impact on my riding, with a dropper posts adding convenience. 26 vs 27 was small gain in roll over vs a small loss in manoeuvrability which didn’t ever really sell me either way. 29 was more of a “game changer” in choice for general riding, in the way that carving skis were.

The best advice I had was stop reading magazines and just ride; I stopped buying as much stuff and stopped worrying about what I was riding and just enjoyed biking.

Not my intention, just happy to point out nearly everything you need for an old 26 is still available, even 9sp if you really want it. Stick with what you have if you want just pick it up and go for it.
Don't insist though that we should stop and set things in stone for the rest of us.

We've introduced 2 new wheel sizes in as many years,3 new spacing standards, at least 3 different head tube standards, 2 different seat tube standards, a new handlebar standard; all of which were completely un necessary and made bikes obsolete. But of course this shit is all down to brexit.
**** off. If these ****s weren't such shysters perhaps there would be a bit of trust between consumers and manufacturers rather than us all being worried about the next bullshit standard.
"by riders for riders" is complete bollocks and we feel it. If I see another video by Chris Cocalis or whoever telling us that they have our interests at heart I'll puke. I certainly won't cry for them if they go pop.

all of which were completely un necessary and made bikes obsolete.

But of course this shit is all down to brexit.

Is this your 16th post on the thread telling us that?

I have 6 bike's and 15 set's of wheel's. This is road bikes alone! Some of this is due to the fact I love buying stuff and ride a lot, and some due to the fact some are now disc and some are not qr. This could well make me a massive bellend in some folks books but could equally make some folk jealous. Most of the view's have some or a lot of validity, I just don't need to keep telling everyone I'm right or they are wrong. This is a thread about the bike industry struggling, if you keep telling potential customers they are wrong, I'm not really sure that will help the industry.

Yeah probably, they come about when somebody starts wailing on about stuff being obsolete when it's not.

Perhaps the potential customers could step back and stop scaring themselves and listening to the profits of doom on the internet about things not being available when it is.

We are experiencing a slow down here in Oz, it's mostly due to a huge boom tailing off, economic conditions and a congested market place. Nobody is complaining about wheel sizes. that is from people I know in and out of the trade.

there is no global cabal deciding to swap to a new standard just to piss people off, it's not a conspiracy.

No conspiracy no, but there is a coordinated effort to influence buying decisions part of which is the creation of technical barriers to try and minimise the re-use of existing parts...

I accept we've had things a bit too good for a bit too long, up until now a ~20 year old road bike frameset could probably accommodate most new road kit, and an MTB could be incrementally updated and repaired according to the owners budget and tastes...

The pace of change has accelerated in the last few years, certainly for MTBs and similar moves are clearly afoot for road bikes...

Dare I say it I think it was 29ers that woke them up to the possibilities, if you think back 29" wheels were at one point a bit of a niche novelty, weirdy beard types proclaiming their rolling benefits, adopted by SSers and then XC racers and eventually half the rest of the world...

Of course the smaller outfits that championed 29ers early on used the existing standards the likes of surly and niner didn't have the clout to demand new axle or BB standards and the existing suite of interfaces was perfectly adequate, fast forward a decade or so and the rollout of 27.5" pretty neatly coincides with 142x12 and then shortly after 148/boost, plus a plethora of BBs, that's not happenstance, that was planned.

It's not a conspiracy, but the big boys do talk and exchange information and attend conferences together, normally tacked on the side of the big trade shows (IIUC), these things are agreed "at a certain level"...

SRAM, Trek and Specialized don't want customers following the old model of buy a bike, buy some nice bits, move those onto a new 95% compatible frame and so on over the course of a few years, they want a nice solid turnover of sales, parts suppliers want volume OEM deals not AM dribs and drabs, large bicycle corporations (and that's what they are now) want to sell you a whole bike and pull you back to the dealership with aftersales handjobs, accessories and offers to extract another big purchase within 24-36 months...

Of course it's not all that hard to resist, so it's not worth getting worked up about, but the business of bicycles has changed and gotten bigger and more organised it is going to be more like the automotive industry in another decade or so...

Don’t really understand hate on torque caps.

Yes, they’re just trying to reinvent the 20mm axle feel with a 15mm unit, but they’re entirely optional. You can mount a regular wheel in a torque cap fork with no ill effects, you just don’t get the stiffness increase.

Yes you can, but it's still daft and not having a recess to rest your front wheel in can be a pain in the arse. At least I run Hope hubs so popped some on. It's just an annoyance.

The American market seems much more accepting of change and happy to swallow the next greatest invention. I remember one comment describing Interbike a disappointment because there was want much new stuff, but more tweaks....that sounds like a good thing to me!

I'm no retro grouch...both of my bikes are 650b, big headtubes, one has a dropper, both have internal routing etc. Neither are Boost though orvrunning metric shocks.

Is it the bike industry (or any other industries) fault that we are such gullible suckers? If more people stopped following the annual cycle they might be less inclined to Innovate (makes pointless changes).

Modern trail/Enduro bikes have been amazing since the last generation of 26".

Depressing reading. I think some of you are way off the mark but hey it’s only opinions and we are all entitled to them!

Incidentally whichever side of the argument you fall on, I think advances that seem small do add up. I’d rather this years Deore kit than XT from 5/6 years ago for example. Although both work!

I'm a huge retrogrouch :)- I was an early adopter of 29er back when it was a fad.

I was an early adopter of fat.

(Still have and regularly ride both)

Still have a 26" "enduro" bike in the form of an ibis mojo with some offset bushes . Because I have not ridden anything I feel is worth 10 times what I paid for the mojo(or even 2 times what I used to sell them new for as current frames are) and I'm a big believer in if you can't afford to mend it when you bend it then you can't afford it.... Already my frames got a few dings that would have you spewing if it was 3k+

But someone has to buy all the new stuff....otherwise how would I be able to buy hardly used gear at knock down prices once it's unfashionable.

I ride with lots of different groups and one thing I've noticed is that fast riders are fast on any wheel size and the same applies to slow riders too.

I'm sticking with my current 26 bike because I can't afford to buy a new one. I've got no interest in changing to 650b as it isn't any different to 26. If I got a transition frame today my shock and wheels wouldn't fit although my fork would. I can easily run 650b wheels in my suppressor frame as the rear triangle is the same as the patrol. so not only would I have to buy a new coil shock I'd need new boost wheels.

I ride with lots of different groups and one thing I've noticed is that fast riders are fast on any wheel size and the same applies to slow riders too.

this many times 😉

remember that time when everyone said a 29er was no good for downhill.... then minaar went and won one .... pretty sure that wasnt down to the wheelsize 😉

I think all the new standards would irritate me less if there wasn't still room for significant jumps in mountain bike performance.

There are some serious bodges in suspension design because the derailleur has to be accommodated (which is where a lot of the current 'improvements' come from). Derailleurs are what imo are holding back the next phase of mountain bikes.

Take a look at where the industry should be heading with Millyards bike:

https://dirtmountainbike.com/features/railroad-millyard-invention.html

This to me is actual improvements in mountain biking.

Like I said, I was first in line for suspension (although full suspension had to wait until I had my first decent paying job), disc brakes, and dropper posts because they offered genuine improvements. If Sick bicycles full suspension frame becomes available I'll be first in line to buy one.

What we have now is extreme turd polishing.