Statistics, mistrut...
 

[Closed] Statistics, mistruths and (ab)use of the English language

 br
Posts: 18125
Free Member
Topic starter
 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25176031

[i]Com Res polled 1,070 adults living in London between 19 and 25 November, of which about a quarter identified themselves as cyclists.

The poll found 91% of those asked believed the compulsory wearing of helmets would improve safety.
[/i]

How can wearing a helmet 'improve' safety, in the event of an accident all it can do is improve the 'outcome'. If there is no accident, wearing a helmet makes no difference at all.

I wonder what the actual question they were asked was?


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 8:47 am
Posts: 17321
Full Member
 

I expect they were asked just the question stated. The important word in the response is "believed".


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 9:37 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

It doesn't matter who you ask that question as on the face of it, wearing a helmet cycling sounds like a good idea to most people I suspect.


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 9:54 am
Posts: 91157
Free Member
 

I think it probably is tbh.


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 10:04 am
Posts: 20602
Full Member
 

I wonder what the actual question they were asked was?

How to skew questionnaires... ๐Ÿ˜‰


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 10:11 am
Posts: 6745
Free Member
 

If you don't have any evidence, just use public opinion!


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 10:26 am
Posts: 4097
Free Member
 

I think it's pretty obvious what the logic is - cylists having accidents (which will continue to happen) will be safer if they are wearing helmets.

Not saying I necessarily agree with that statement, by the way, but it is at least a coherent statement to make.


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 10:29 am
Posts: 551
Free Member
 

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/statistical_bludgeon.htm


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 10:45 am
Posts: 10940
Full Member
 

A good little read

[img] [/img]


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 10:51 am
Posts: 23477
Full Member
 

'Believe' is a very particular word. The problem with surveys that ask people what their opinions or beliefs are on a current topic is the very fact that the topic is current means work has already been done to form people's opinions. The Tory party are very good at present at shaping opinion through the media, then having those opinions repeated back to them through opinion polls then using that as 'evidence' to justify their policies.

But very particularly in the news items about surveys,and this one is no different, is you get the answers without the questions. If 90% have a belief about helmets what exactly was the question and was 'believe' part of it.

A classic example of the answer without the question is a story from the cover of Time magazine that 1 in 4 children in the uk had committed a serious violent crime. It was a much repeated fact and underwrote much of Cameron's broken Britain election campaign. But the question that the respondents to the survey were answering was ..... Have you ever hit, pushed or shoved someone with the result that they've be hurt, cut or bruised.


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 11:28 am
Posts: 7
Free Member
 

I stopped riding for the last couple of weeks because I was sick and tired of being tailgated, abused, close passes etc.

That's the story that needs to be in the media. I don't know why it's not...


 
Posted : 02/12/2013 11:35 am