It’s that time of year when we look into the mists of time, peer into the future, and see what lies ahead. Maybe.
A year ago, we had a few solid hits with our annual predictions, but how will we do for the year ahead?
Chipps’ predictions for 2026
More of the same?
The mood at the 2025 Eurobike show was more cheerful than it’s been for a couple of years, but there was still a lot of caution about the future. I think that many companies still have too many unsold bikes in the warehouses, so they’re keen to sell those first. This will probably limit the amount of innovation and new models that they’ll pump out in the next year. And, in addition, I think a lot of companies will be watching how the e-bike market expands. Don’t expect massive innovations in analogue trail bikes from the bike companies. Plus all that tariffs uncertainty has put a hold on many companies committing to massive new orders from foreign factories. This does, however, leave room for those fast ‘n’ agile companies, perhaps ones who make their own stuff, have minimum stock levels and a desire to succeed, to move and fill those gaps. Or perhaps there aren’t any gaps to fill?
Old New Media
A new media order: With some traditional media companies going away completely and others being hoovered up by Big Media Publishers, will 2026 become the year that more readers flock to smaller, independent print magazines for their reading pleasure? Will we try to put away our phones and concentrate – hard! – on a print magazine for a few minutes a day as a detox? I certainly hope so.
The return of style
I don’t mean skinny downhiller jeans for everyone, but for those riders who feel their riding has plateaued – you can ride everything you’re prepared to ride, you’re not after taking new risks to learn new skills – where do you go from there? You concentrate on how you ride. Bikes are so capable that they can get you down just about anything, but there are ways of doing it. I think that those riders who’ve stopped pursuing bigger jumps and drops will start to look at HOW they ride. Can they get free speed from working dips and corners better? Can they catch their riding pals even while pedalling less, but using the flow of the trail, pumping features and braking later? The flow is going to start to rival the sheer speeds. And smoother riders always look better.
13 speeds, really?
It’s going to have to happen, isn’t it? We’ve seen 13 speed transitions from Campag and SRAM on the gravel side, but what about for mountain biking? Of course it’s not needed, but it’s one bigger, so someone is bound to do it. You won’t see anything new from Shimano for at least four years, so that leaves SRAM (I’m giving a 50% chance) or a smaller, hungrier company like MicroShift or TRP. I’ve already heard stories of racers keen to bodge SRAM’s gravel 13 speed Red setups onto their mountain bikes, for speed of shifting and smaller gaps between gears, so perhaps…
Trail Shuttering
So far, so predictable, so my attempt at a bonkers wildcard is that there’ll be some kind of attempt at a widespread mountain bike ban somewhere in the UK. We’ve, perhaps surprisingly, seen large chunks of Morzine’s off-piste riding taken away – and it can always happen here in some form. Perhaps it’ll be the Forestry Commission banning bikes without third party insurance, or some new tree or bovine disease making the countryside off-limits, or proposed legislation to make riding bridleways after dark illegal. I think this is just my way of saying ‘Hey, don’t take things for granted. If you’re involved in your local access forum, great. If not, why not?’
A decent Easter
I’ve always maintained that the UK bike scene is more reliant on good weather over Easter than gears and widgets. If the Easter holidays are glorious and sunny, then even lapsed riders will get the bikes out of the shed and get out on the trails (or off to the bike shop for a new bike or a refresh of the old). If it’s a week of rain, they won’t and then there won’t be a sustained period of time off to lure them back until the summer holidays, by which time, they’ll feel that they’re too behind their now-fit friends to join in. Let’s hope for a decent streak of weather in April!
Mark’s predictions for 2026
End-of-tunnel glimmer?
2025 was shockingly bad for the bike industry. Last year I predicted that by the end of the year the bike industry would have recovered a bit. It kind of has… a bit. But not really enough to significantly move the needle. There was more ‘consolidation’ in the media world as everyone involved battles to adjust and regroup. We finished on a bit of a high though, with a successful CrowdCube campaign that saw us recruit over 200 shareholders – that’s what’s leading me into 2026 with more optimism than I had this time last year.
AI Slop continues
In the world of media AI is only going to get worse/better. Better in a technical sense as it becomes harder and harder to detect what is real and what is generated. Both images, video AND words. Media brands will start really broadcasting their human generated content via badges and disclaimers. Also AI will get worse in 2026 for exactly the same reasons.
For some, it won’t matter. Content is content and who cares who or what makes it? For others it will matter a great deal and for those of us who like the human touch, a new niche of no AI content will be in demand. So there’s opportunities there. But there are also risks. AI is here now and it isn’t going away and it will only get better and more advanced. There’s a place for it but the boundaries are yet to be set.
Print is back but different
Print has never actually gone away although the landscape of print has shrunk dramatically. 2026 will see the end of the bottoming out of print and a cautious resurgence on a limited scale. Print has been likened to Vinyl in it’s demise and then bounce but I don’t agree. Vinyl is objectively poor at what it is designed to do. It is the worst of all audio formats in both quality and practicality. CDs are much better and streaming now delivers better quality audio in a incredibly convenient package.
Print is different. Print delivers content in a way that cannot be reproduced digitally. It delivers without screens and in a tangible medium that just looks and feels great. Print never went away, but it is actually now better than it has ever been. Magazines are more akin to books now and they can deliver content and especially design in a way that is still almost impossible to replicate on a screen of any size. Singletrack will remain in print and our readership numbers will increase throughout 2026.
Big reach numbers are history
AI is killing traffic to websites and this will get worse in 2026. But the traffic that is no longer coming was never really valuable to begin with. What is more important is the traffic that remains. Smaller in number but very high in value. Regular visitors to media websites are where the quality audience lies and marketers continually chasing massive reach will only continue to see their ROI get smaller and smaller. Solid, loyal audiences is where the real value sits. Singletrack has that in spades.
James’ predictions for 2026
Asa Vermette will be the DH World Cup overall winner.
Loic Bruni will finish second, and Jackson Goldstone will be third. It will be the most exciting downhill season since 2025.
Hattie Harnden will win the Gates Belted Purse.
Maybe. That might be wishful thinking, but either way, there’s more chance of a woman winning the Gated Purse.
The rise of the 32in wheel
They’re coming, whether you like it or not. And not just for XC. Resistance is futile.
More brands will continue to feel the squeeze. I don’t know which ones, but as more of the market becomes electrified, it’ll be harder for the small to mid sized brands to keep up because…
The Chinese will continue to dominate the ebike market
More and more far eastern brands loaded with the Avinox motor are hitting these shores. Consumers will have less allegiance with traditional bike brands, as new motor and battery tech develops at pace and draws new riders with no history or brand preconception into the sport.
Benji’s predictions for 2026
Fcuk knows.
Gravel migration
In an echo of ye olde distante past – where people in the 80s/90s who were already riding offroad on unsuitable bikes (BMXs, road bikes, Raleigh Choppers, Grifters etc – I expect we’ll see a lot of gravel riders getting a Mountain Bike and realising they’re just better. And we’ll be here for them.
Goodbye USA, hello UK
Partly fuelled by the Americans’ seemingly unending e-bike-phobia, but also for reasons of access (ie. not really having any rights-of-way), and a highly car-centric resort-based sports-focus in the US, I think we may well see British bikers ceasing to look west for their inspiration.
Cross country not-racing
For me, this may be a big focus for 2026. Very much related both of my predictions above. The riding and the experience and the attitude that I think we all have as mountain bikers is almost wholly absent from ‘MTB Media’. There is way more to mountain biking than berms, hucks, danger, overbuilt bikeparks and energy drinks. Where are all the representations of MTBers having a nice time in nice places with nice people?
Eeb laws decided in EU
And DJI won’t be pleased. I predict the ‘amount of assist’ ratio (ie. how many watts a motor can give out in relation to the amount of watts going into the cranks from the rider) is going to become A Law. And while this makes a lot of sense – they are pedal assist bikes after all – it probably won’t be an entirely unbiased project. Some brands are going to put the ki-Bosch on DJI’s potential dominance.
32in is coming
For the non-eeb market at least. Although some media bods are predicting that 32in wheel bikes are going to be aimed at tall riders, I think we all know that the real market who will ‘go for 32’ are XC racers. Of all heights. I don’t think we’ll see 32in trail bikes (well, apart from some from smaller brands). As ever, big wheels will sate big lung bikers.
The continued meh of trail bikes
Non-electric full suspension bikes with more than 130mm of travel are a thing of the past. Well, genuinely new ones are anyway. They’ll still be made of course (because they are one of the best things humans have ever invented) but they won’t be any different from the ones that came out in 2022. Like all the ones currently gathering cobwebs in your LBS. Maybe, just maybe – it’s only a maybe – maybe some brave bike designer may finally design a bike with genuinely worthwhile proportional geometry? Even then, there’s a whole load of marketing myths, journo cliches and incorrect received wisdom to combat. Regardless, all of this is great news for smaller brands who actually care. Which is nice.
But which will win a World Cup first, a 32″ XC bike or a belt driven DH bike?
If 32 becomes a thing will we end up with a proliferation of mullets – the original 29/27.5 then super mullet 32/29 and enduro mullet 32/27.5 (now that would be quite a sight…)
32/26 mullet. Maybe Starling for their April Fools Joke, that people end up ordering.
E-bikes will be banned to prevent the human race turning into Darleks.
Exterminated-bikes.
Even more divisions and filtering of riding bikes and where they should ride…bike companies will be pushing more gravel and ebikes.
Entry level bikes will cost around £10,000 by the end of the year.
Na. Simple XC hardtails are on their way back. Of course, you’ll be able to buy Premium models too but some sense will prevail and the big manufacturers will try to entice new buyers too, especially those deterred by the cost of e-bikes
I’ve only just got used to 29″ and still not sure if I really like it or just tolerate it! I really hope “big bike" don’t start pushing 32″ everywhere and trying to phase out the other wheel sizes.
Specialized will bring back the Big Hit, now called the Bigger Hit with 32 up front and 24 on the back.
A new standard diameter and screw pitch for pedal axles, to improve stiffness. Or something.
I think there will be fewer high end bikes as “you could buy an E-bike for that much”.
I hope 32 inch wheels doesn’t become a thing. It wont work for shorter riders; my rear wheel is already close the the saddle when fully dropped on full compression.
Mullet solves that problem. Not that I’m advocating for bigger wheels… but most of the advantages of them are at the front, and disadvantages at the rear… so there’s not really a problem unless you’re wedded to matching wheels for some reason.
If they do, could be a win for the smaller brands willing to do custom frames to users wheelsize specs
There are already some lovely custom 32/29 mullets out there and some awesome 36ers, hopefully the mainstream brands bugger off and leave odd wheelsizes to the freakshow as nothing kills a niche faster than plebs getting in on it, and they nick all the geometry and design work done the beardie odd bods and claim it as their new wonder product.
I’d just like to see more really well designed, interesting bikes, built to last as long as possible rather than being reliant on electronics, motors and all that bunkum.
My predictions are:
Continued chaos as the authorities try to deal with electric things on wheels which they didn’t have the vocabulary to describe. That’s based in Mrs Ampthill having been in communication with police and concluding they really didn’t get that they are fully legal ebikes that can be ridden any where a bike can be ridden
I hope Benji is right that a sensible revision will be made to the laws on pedal assist ebikes to prevent a power war
One of the bike brands, or all of them, will realise that their race teams are no longer being watched by potential customers on tv and kick up a fuss
Their are loads of types of bikes capable of being ridden along most of the uks rights of way network. I live in hope that people won’t get stressed because some one has chosen a different type of bike to ride along the same route as them
face it, ebikes killed mtb already.love the plan to reintroduce the penny farthing
I predict people will come round to my way of thinking and embrace the fatbike. Lots of fun and suitable for all trail conditions just by adjusting tyre pressures. They involve minimal maintenance. None of that faff with tokens, air pressures, electronic monitoring, no creaky pivot bearings to replace, just wipe the chain, apply some lube and you’re good to go.
You know it makes sense!
Excuse the list, but currently I have ( and use them all);
A 650b 120mm travel, carbon wheeled, full suss trail bike.
A 650b+ steel single speed.
A cheap and cheerful alloy ‘gravel’ bike 700c
My wife has a 29” hardtail.
None of the wheel sets can be interchanged between any of the bikes owing to axles / drop outs / hubs.
No part of any of them relies on a battery.I know it’s come up many times before, but a year of standardisation would be wonderful.
But hey ho, I’m old now and would think very long and hard about buying a new bike. All that I have work well and most improvements or reliability will only really come by keeping myself working as well as I can.
In the same way that 659b was a stepping stone to 29″. Maybe 32″ is a stepping stone to 36″. In which case, some people might already have experienced that and shy away from 32″.
Also, while MTB seems happy with bigger wheels off road, gravel seems to sometimes suggest that 659b is better off road. I think it would be nice to see the idea of another wheel size fall flat in it’s face. However, I’ll try not to underestimate just how powerful the marketing machine really is. Even if you resist as an individual, if everyone else jumps ship, you might be left with no (or less) choice.
TBH I reckon my bikes might be better with a little bit less front suspension and a little bit more wheel. I simply do not care. Half waiting for a new hub standard because “there’s not enough triangulation for the bigger wheel".~I think this will be a boring year for bikes tbh, just sort of more of the same, except at the top end where the few people that can afford a £10000+ bike will become more and more important. i’m just hoping someone else rips off radial tyres, or schwalbe make some better tyres with it. Lads literally all you need to do is a 40/42a rubber with good side knobs, I will send you a highroller 3 so you can rip it off if you like. It’s OK, everyone else copies everyone else, you don’t have to be weird.
27.5 / 650B in general
29+
B-Plus
It’ll find fans like fat bikes and 20″ minivelos have but I expect 32″ will be added to the list of tyres the bike industry has hyped then moved on from. There will be advantages for some uses and wheel size needn’t be one-for-all but there aren’t enough taller XC riders who will love it enough over 29″ wheel to support it in the long run. A cynic’s view might be that the bike industry is just looking for something, anything to generate sales of a bike that doesn’t have discounted competition already out there. One thing for sure is the industry doesn’t need more complexity, SKUs and risky product punts, or a new hub pairing (157R 142F anyone?) to go with it.
While I’m here .. my prediction is that brands relying on e-MTB and carbon road are in for tough times, it’s where the western bike industry will feel what’s inevitable from China the hardest. The western industry itself has chased complexity via the capability of the factories on one hand and Bosch and similar large companies on the other. Doing that has built the attributes that will be the way for the factories to take the advantage whenever they want to. Probably not going to be seen in a big way in 2026 but it’s starting and the knock-on effects could be significant – Trek and Specialized may be more vulnerable than most because of the way they blend product tech with scale and higher RRPs, though they lack the real brand loyalty of a more niche brand.
On the more positive flipside, better times ahead for smaller brands who make stuff outside of that generic contract manufacturing loop and have something valid to say about their products, beyond spec and price. An influx of China direct bikes would make these brands look more credible and interesting than they already, imo.
Personal predictions?
More MTBing that I don’t call ‘MTB’ anymore, it’s just ‘going biking’ like we did in BITD on late 80s ATBs. Love it. Simpler bikes and good times.
Further back to basics in the kit on my own bikes. Linkglide and Cues 9s in my future, because as long as I get the ratios I need I couldn’t be less interested in running gear spec level these days. Digital gears are irrelevant to me and I find the £500 mech or cassette thing just a bit weird. I swapped out some Shimano XT cranks for Middleburns with a square taper BB not long ago and I’m pleased to report they feel like .. cranks. All good. I look forward to having a BB that lasts more than 6 months. And last year I also got a set of BB7s and Paul levers working and feeling every bit as good as a decent hydro brake (for UK XC use. It’s all in the parts match, cable outer type and route and cable grease). So I predict 65% likelihood I borrow a full new XT D12 bike this year and love it and want to buy it.
“Will we try to put away our phones and concentrate – hard! – on a print magazine for a few minutes a day as a detox? I certainly hope so."
That’s been my past, present and will be my future for pretty much ever. I love paper mags, hate reading things on my phone/tablet.
Weird thing with ebikes, once you’ve got one you’re happy with, they are very uninteresting things to read about. They’re so expensive you can’t go for the upgrade every few years, even if you want to (which I don’t). So er… yeah dunno really 😀
32″ wheels are a joke. Should we try them on the road?
2 things on this,
1 is I think the bike industry overall is terrible at marketing. There are exceptions at small brand level, otherwise it’s across the board generic, weak and/or uninspiring imho so it’s not that which pushes big changes kit out there, not at this level of change.
2 is that new standards shift and the resulting customer FOMO, moving bikes or parts on out of fear of sidelined specs, is being talked about as a failed policy by some, by many perhaps. People just stop buying bikes or parts as often and they lose trust in brands and faith in the product itself. It creates churn that’s not the same as genuine demand-lead stable growth. It provided some sales incentives for a 10 year cycle and it won’t continue to do so, hence a lot of eye-rolling ‘Aw FFS are we here again?’ responses to 32″. As valid as it may be as new design in isolation, it’s not led by consumer demand. It’s an opportunity for hope and a lot of product guys not wanting to miss out because there isn’t much else that’s creating opportunity right now. 29″ wasn’t much more rider-led at the start either but that came around in different times and was the first of these big shifts, as riders I think we were more receptive to a change then. And for a lot of riders it was a change that had merit Vs what we had at the time. Some of that merit certainly applies to the change from 29 to 32 but I do see it as a much weaker case.
I wonder how this will age : )