May is not negotiating anything – another piece of delusion. NO negotiations until article 50 is triggered. there has not been a single piece of negotiation yet.

Negotiations have not even started (despite my sloppy language ^) and will take at least 2 years and yet some of us know the details already. Brilliant !

What are next weeks lottery numbers?

“Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”

So we can accept that the EU have a win/win or something else. Lets see what they say themselves

“Given the considerable interdependence between the UK and the EU economy and financial systems, it is critical that a workable agreement is achieved that not only maintains high regulatory standards but also delivers growth and jobs across the EU …[smells like compromise]

“As an overriding principle, one can assume that after Brexit, the closer the UK remains to established EU regulatory standards, the greater the degree of access the UK can have to the single market – and vice versa, without prejudice to other considerations (eg the principle of the unity of the four freedoms).

“If the UK does leave the single market and thereby resigns from the four freedoms and the jurisdiction of the court, then consideration could be given to tools such as third country/equivalence passporting regime, and this should be taken into account on existing regimes as well as future pieces of financial legislation: eg on securitisation.” [walks like compromise]

Still probably written by some fraudulent Spaniard so lets not trust what THEY say. WE know better already!

That’s well over £350m negotiation fees saved, so we can spend it all on NHS pensions. Phew!

Two of the largest investment banks in the City of London have confirmed that some staff will definitely have to move abroad when the UK leaves the EU.

HSBC’s chief executive, Stuart Gulliver, told Bloomberg he was preparing to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris.

And Axel Weber, boss of Swiss bank UBS, told the BBC “about 1,000” of its 5,000 London jobs could be hit by Brexit.

Analysis: Simon Jack, BBC business editor

It seems that HSBC wasn’t bluffing. The day after Theresa May confirmed the UK will be leaving the single market, HSBC confirmed plans to move 1,000 bankers to Paris.

We always knew how many but today we learned how much business they would take with them from London. Those bankers generate 20% of HSBC’s European banking revenue – a number that HSBC wouldn’t split out but is in the billions.

Revenue is not the same as profit but the move will dent government tax receipts, as will the loss of income tax from a thousand highly paid investment bankers.

UBS privately acknowledge that whatever happens a significant number of jobs will leave, most probably to Frankfurt, and that process will start soon after the UK triggers Article 50 – the mechanism to leave the EU.

With Britain’s exit from the single market confirmed by the Prime Minister, what were once contingency plans are now becoming reality.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537

Still in denial about this leavers?

One of Germany’s top banking regulators has warned that London could lose its status as “gateway to Europe” for the banking sector after Britain quits the European trading bloc.

Andreas Dombret, who is an executive board member for the Bundesbank – Germany’s central bank – told a private meeting of German businesses and banks earlier this week in Frankfurt that even if banking rules were “equivalent” between the UK and the rest of the EU, that was still “miles away from [Britain having] access to the single market”.

“The current model of using London as a gateway to Europe is likely to end,” Mr Dombret reportedly said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-london-lose-status-gateway-to-europe-for-banks-finance-top-german-banking-regulator-a7572606.html

How about this – the french activly looking topoach the business? You really think that the EU will offer a deal when no deal is actually better for them?

Some major banks are in advanced stages of planning to shift some operations from London to Paris, France’s leading financial regulator has told the BBC.

Benoit de Juvigny said that “large international banks” have undertaken the due diligence needed to set up a subsidiary in the French capital.

He also told Newsnight that “many other companies” had lodged informal inquiries about moving post-Brexit.

He expects similar talks to be going on in Europe’s other financial centres.

Authorities in Frankfurt, Luxembourg and Amsterdam have said they would welcome banks moving operations from London for when the UK leaves the European Union.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646

Manipulation by banksters ..nothing to see here move on.

Negotiations have not even started (despite my sloppy language ^) and will take at least 2 years and yet some of us know the details already. Brilliant !

Strange, you seem to want to shout down anyone who offers a different pov to you, so I guess you feel confident that your opinion is what’s going to happen.
I find that very odd.

Some areas there is no room for negotiation.

the 4 freedoms are indivisible to the EU so unless we sign up to them we will not get tariff free access to the single market. May has said free movement of people is not negotiable. therefore we will not have tariff free access to the single market. Therefore there is no negotiation possible on this.

simple.

And if that doesn’t happen, it will be a massive own goal by the EU that will have significant cost to their citizens.

Don’t forget that the EU is first and foremost a political entity not a financial one. I think it’s foolish to interpret the reaction to brexit in purely rationale terms

It’s all very opaque.

nickc

The post you quote is also anexample of wishful thinking. there is no reason why investment banks moving to paris and frankfurt is anything but a boon to the EU. They get to continue the access to the funds, they get to tax the profits in their countries. its a win / win for the EU

Progress – only took four pages to get some perspective. We have gone from all the banks in the City of Londing are planning to leave (BS) to some of the banks’ staff will relocate to EU (true). So now we have got the “all the banks are leaving” BS cleared up, let’s see, what further BS do we have this morning?

Ah, the new one, FOM and FTA. Some new scaremongering and lies. Of the four options for maintaining access to the single market only one (EEA) requires the UK to accept FoM. The other three do not. Since we are seeking a bespoke deal that has elements of two that do not require FoM then this is simply more BS.

On top of that one of four hard line Brexhiteers has already made conciliatory noises aboutt FOM and we haven’t even started negotiations,

Still let the BS continue, probably 5 pages until we come back to he truth on this one.

For me we need to look past the bankers and look at business in general.

If Article 50 is issued at the end of March 2017 then we will leave for April 2019 (probably be handy if it’s issued 5th April

Win/win means that both sides benefit

TJ sorry to ask for precision here but what you keep referring to are win/lose scenarios on paper which turn out (as any sensible analysts shows including the EU’s internal briefing documents that I have quoted) to be lose/lose results in practice. Why would anyone want those?

Good job that those involved in the forthcomeing negotiations are not (largely) petty who feast on winning wrong arguments. They are, above all, pragmatists desperate to keep things semi-functioning – even broken currency regimes and debt burdened states.

Santander are here for domestic UK banking primarily, they own the old Abbey NAtional. Alliance & Leicester and Bradford and Bingley businesses. There is no logical reason why they would want to divest themselves of these domestic businesses simply because the UK leaves the EU.

What staggers me Mefty is the number of posters here who have no idea of these facts.

TJ it’s really quite straight forward to organise an EU subsiduary or a JV with an EU based bank if necessary. You do not have to nor will banks relocate in total. Of course banks have checked the details of setting up subsiduaries or converting branch offices, thats what you do in business. You also keep ignoring the fact that UK banks have been pulling out of European markets as fast as they can (or are able to do without booking large losses) for the past 5-10 years. Add onto this that marketing and management consulting services are tariff and barrier free into the EU.

The EU is very well awre that it needs tye financial services provoded by London and it’s very aware that to recreate them elsewhere will require largescale Government investment in regulatroy and other support services. All of this will take a lot of time and the EU/eurozone is stood at the edge of a financial precipice.

As I said there must have been 250,000 job losses in banking since 2009 and most people seemed to have been happy about that (permanent too, those jobs aren’t coming back), now suddenly bankers are Remainers best friends ?

TMH used to work for a bank as did I. The world has changed and it’s unlikley we will again. Regulatory chnages mean there is far more opportunity outside banking than within.

Br – indeed. Further disasters looming there. Multinationals have production in the UK as we have the least worker protection in the EU and tariff free access into the single market. Once we lose the access then no reason for them to stay here and our rubbish worker protection means its easy for them to close plants.

Even Nissan who were virtually given a blank cheque by May are making plans to leave

TJ Nissan where given nothing other than an assurance the UK was comitted to tariff free trade for manufacturing.

I actually read what the HSBS CEO said, page 4 of his 30 page statement. He said what I posted that they where considering on the basis of how the negotiations proceed. HSBC recview their global HQ every 5 years, they are always considering their options. Thats what the Execs are paid to do.

By the way Goldman touring Poland was a peach

You should realise most senior guys in banks are the some of the most skillful politicians that you will ever encounter, they have risen to the top in a viper pit – treat their public statements accordingly – look for the action, I live in South West London, I am surrounded by bankers, they ain’t moving

This.

Jamba – I did not say they would move ALL of the bank – just the very profitable bits that do EU investments etc and with your usual accuracy you simply forget the regulatory and support services are already in place in both frankfurt and paris

Like all those bits I quoted are saying. So all those ceos etc of these banks are wrong or lying are are they? – want some more quotes from bankers moving out of the UK into Paris and Frankfurt?

Good job.no one is seeking to lose access to the single market.

The fantasies continiue. Odd not to feel embarrassed by positing stuff that is so obviously untrue. Still, nothing new there…

Five more pages of lies about FOM and single market to come….

Jambas we can rejoice. Apparently IB is back to being very profitable rather than a business that earns about half it’s cost of capital. The good times are back, wey hey!!!! Bring it on…..alternatively TJ could simply just be wrong again. Shame…

TJ you need to get your head around the value and attractiveness of the UK as a market, ie it’s quality. You are brainswashed by the “width” of the EU at 500m people. The EU exports far more to us than we do to them, the UK is the attractive market not the other way around.

What staggers me Mefty is the number of posters here who have no idea of these facts.

Gosh, coming from the fictionmaster, that surely is praise. 🙄 Much in the same way as THM’s raw nerve snideyness.

What do you call folk who persist in their delusions despite all the evidence and clear statements?

“HSBC chief executive Stuart Gulliver said it would move “in about two years’ time when Brexit becomes effective”.

He said employees involved in activities covered by financial regulation would need to move to France, though other key operations would remain in the City.

No raw nerves here but tired muscles and ribs from laughing? Sadly no answers to my letters yet.

At least TJ is now positing what we have been saying all along to argue that we were/are wrong. It’s a laugh a minute.

FoM is going to be epic at is rate…

UBS Chairman Axel Weber said that about 1,000 of the Swiss bank’s 5,000 employees in London could be affected by Brexit, while HSBC Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver said his bank will relocate staff responsible for generating around a fifth of its UK-based trading revenue to Paris.

HSBC chief executive Stuart Gulliver said

“Activities specifically covered by EU legislation will move, and looking at our own numbers, that’s about 20 per cent of revenue,” Gulliver said in a Bloomberg Television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, with John Micklethwait. The bank confirmed that he was referring to the lender’s global banking and markets operations in the UK capital.

direct quote. Will move

We get that TJ it’s been posted many times and proves that some staff may/will move if required and disproves the argument that all banks are planning to leave. Simple

Perspective at last.

Now FOM…

Also following up on meft’s comments about “politcal viper’s nests” I worked closely with CEO/Communications office on “messaging” around important events (Greek/eurozone crises, large loan losses inc fraud, M&A activity, strategic business reviews) and there is huge scrutiny of public statements which are very carefully managed. Of course banks are tryi g to put pressure on the Government. Right now they have full aceess to the EU at ZERO cost to them whilst operating out of a low personal and corporate tax country, easy hire/fire location where the working language is English. None of fhe alternatives are as attractive. All alternatives involve spending more money and lots of it access to weak economies.

No raw nerves here but tired muscles and ribs from laughing? Sadly no answers to my letters yet.

Just build that credibility by trying to patronise, you poor little souls. As I said, your posts were read with interest until you started you chewkw impression and just became a ranty little shout box. Now, unfortunately your opinion carries as much weight as chewkw, which we generally know is the square root of jack all.
Chao!

+1

There’s an unbelievable air of smugness that seems to have overcome THM, and it does him no favours.

Captain / Bob
Its what happens when you are deluded and your delusions are at complete odds with the facts. You retreat into a fantasy world

Anyway – lovely sunny day here so its bike ride time.

It’s clear who’s is lying and who is getting ranty

Truth and reality

All banks are planning to leave
FOM rules out FTA
Santander UK is a minority business interest

Lies and delusions

banks are planing to move some staff as required
Only EEA requires FOM
Santandar UK and Brazil,are the groups biggest sources of income (20% and 21%) versus Spain (12%)

Welcome to the post truth world!

What’s next for click bait

Now you’re just inventing things, no one said Santander view UK as a minority interest. 😆
Where’ve I seen that before?
I’m off to see La La Land this evening.

Where equivalence falls short of actual passporting for dummies…

“Some but not all EU financial legislation accepts the principle of equivalence. There is, for instance, no such provision for commercial banking or primary insurance.”

https://www.ft.com/content/61221dd4-d8c4-11e6-944b-e7eb37a6aa8e

A longer better read for those that care:

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/understanding-regulatory-equivalence-an-effective-fall-back-option-for-uk-financial-services-after-brexit/

Only EEA requires FOM

Tell that to Switzerland.

I’ll ignore your strawmen, and suggest others do as well.

Of course banks are tryi g to put pressure on the Government. Right now they have full aceess to the EU at ZERO cost to them whilst operating out of a low personal and corporate tax country, easy hire/fire location where the working language is English. None of fhe alternatives are as attractive. All alternatives involve spending more money and lots of it access to weak economies.

A gratuitous quote. I enjoyed reading it so I thought I’d quote it. Maybe I should open a Twi**** account. 💡

Kelvin, fell free, you have a habit of ignoring the facts behind the singe market.

There is no need to have a conversation with any of the Swiss. The facts relating to the various options and FOM are clear and well documented. They are not as described above.

Capn, hard to know what you said. You suggested that it would be more interesting to consider what banks like SAN were going to do and then simply dismissed the answer on the basis that the CEO and her family were all untrustworthy fraudsters an that you would be a sucker to believe what they said, Odd to have asked what they were going to do in the first place eapecially, as mefty noted, that their UK retail banking operations are not directly affected. Scaremongering perhaps? But at least like the rest of the banks BS that is cleared up,now.

We can move on to scaremongering over FoM

THM, can you point me to the examples of “access” to the single market that don’t involve FoM? I’d like to see what has been offered previously by the EU. There have been many statements about the indivisibility of the 4 freedoms.