Cramlington! I might have known.

The fact we are still in the EU hasn’t stopped JCB bagging that lovely big export order with a non-EU customer.
Was that your point Ninfan?

$142 million? Even after allowing for devaluation of the pound that’s still less than 3 days of savings

Cambridge Report.

Some fairly pessimistic scenarios which are less onerous than the Tressury ones (which are critised as being excessively negative and have been proven to be so in the last 6 months). They describe the outlook under their model as “grey rather than black” and point out that is really unchanged vs prior to Brexit (ie they where neagtive before). A lot of the negatives are offset by a lower exchange rate. They see little impact on services.

One intresting page is this one, it really shows how trade with the EU is increasingly less important due to stagnant EU economies underperforming the RoW. Our exports to the EU have grown 4% in 10 years, non EU 40%+ !! Look to the future now it’s only just begun (as Slade would say 🙂 )

Commentary

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-university-of-cambridge-treasury-forecasts-little-basis-in-reality-project-fear-2017-1?r=UK&IR=T

Report

http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp483.pdf

The fact that India etc are growing faster than any of us, and importing more from us, is more about where in their development cycle they are, and lower exposure to credit when the crunch bit hard. In the second half of 2016 India grew to be worth more than the UK for the first time. Of course an ideal country to get better trade deals and arrangements with and make the most of their appetite to trade with us… the EU tried, but talks stalled whenever the UK got twitchy about movement of key workers… it is the UK government that keeps blocking better trading terms with India. So how does leaving the EU make it easier to trade with these non-EU countries we should be looking to trade more and more with?

We need trade deals and agreements. Not want. Need. They are essential to increase trade. No, they’re essential just to keep current levels of trade! We’re about to throw away trade deals with 70+ countries, and agreements with many more, basically all the countries we trade with, and want to increase exports to. Remember that, even countries with no formal trade deal (of which there are few not “most”) have trading arrangements. And we still haven’t even got the staff sorted to begin on the first replacement deal.

The other countries will fall for the red, white and blue coloured letters on the 2 page trade proposal booklet. Its all the colours on our mighty flag you know. The ambassador / negotiator will ply them with tea and scones, saving some extra ferroro roches for India. They’ll whip out some bunting, wheel the queen past in a wheelchair… and offer free rides on her horses and long weekend breaks at Buckingham. Sucked in by all the very quaint englishness… plus they all get stuffed full of cake.. and even a party bag to take home. The negotiations will be very much in our favour.
The government have been dropping hints on these plans for months now but you lot are too half asleep to have noticed.

I want to see more graphs about how we’re increasing exports to non-EU counties, from within the EU.
Even better, show us the same graphs for Germany! They must be corkers!
No sign of the EU stifling exports by member states to non-EU countries.
Why are we leaving again?

graphs about how we’re increasing exports to non-EU counties

Please take note of the red and white. These will be served with blue napkins.

Some fairly pessimistic scenarios which are less onerous than the Tressury ones (which are critised as being excessively negative and have been proven to be so in the last 6 months).

You know we havn’t left yet don’t you….

The government have been dropping hints on these plans for months now but you lot are too half asleep to have noticed.

Sorry, we assumed the government were satirising themselves with all the the angry talking about cheese, jam and Royal yachts. We all know the real ideas are being kept from us because we might not understand the pure brilliance of them.

and they seem to have forgotten to share any of the plans with the man who was going to be negotiating it all

Playing with data : I just put the German non-EU exports and the UK non-EU exports on the same graph! Holy shit, we are minows at this game, aren’t we! Wow.

Jamba, what’s the scale/units on those Cambridge graphs? Trying to replicate and overlay.

Can I take it from your comments that you’re not in disagreement with their comments? In which case, as a proponent of hard Brexit and just going with WTO, what is your take on this which you forgot to quote (noting particularly the last sentence):

It is widely accepted that the long-term impact of Brexit depends on the trade arrangements agreed for the UK after leaving the EU. Several forecasters have made separate estimates for the UK joining the European Economic Area (EEA), negotiating a new free-trade agreement with the EU, or most drastically having no agreement and falling back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. In this paper we focus on the last of these three as the putative worst-case scenario. Other scenarios should not be as bad for the UK.

I cant believe the Remainers are still in denial. Every day produces more pro Brexit outcomes. Even the BoE has fessed up and Guardian is accepting Project Fear for the outrage against democracy that it was. Mind you, the BBC news last night was still in denial as well.

UK is big enough and good enough to do it on its own. End of argument. The rest is fluff. Move on.

Hh45 yes it’s just 2% of GDP and a few hundred thousand jobs to be lost to Brexit now
As well as ability to work study, live visa free across Europe

Loss of access to scientific collaboration, funding etc etc etc
Loss of influence in the world’s largest trading bloc
……

….and that’s before we’ve even left!

And the first thing India said they wanted was more Indian coming to the UK! Not really what the Leavers want…….

The rest is fluff.

Glad that you aren’t concerned about what replaces our current agreements with all our trading partners.
That’s only jobs at stake.
Glad you aren’t concerned about whether Brits in Europe may have to repatriate, and visa versa.
That’s only families at stake.
Glad you aren’t concerned about science funding, environmental standards… on and on.

There is quite a bit of “fluff” to be sorted in the next few* years, and how and when the fluff is sorted matters.

[ * may be 10 or more years… if you’re bored of it now, after six months, expect worse ]

look guys if you cannot be optimistic because the report is less pessimistic[ but still pessimistic] then what can you be happy about

ALways there moaning about facts
I think we need some of this
[video]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWkTQvlnDTI[/video]

= :87)

We’re not in denial at all about the consequences, unlike you Brexiteers.

Every day produces more pro Brexit outcomes.

Go on then, name one. In case you’re struggling, less negative isn’t the same as pro.

Guardian is accepting Project Fear for the outrage against democracy that it was.

How is presenting two sides of an argument non-democratic? Surely that’s the very definition of a democracy over, say, a dictatorship?

UK is big enough and good enough to do it on its own.

We really aren’t, we just think we are, and that arrogance is part of the problem.

End of argument. The rest is fluff. Move on.

Quick! Stop talking! Stop discussing things!

What are you afraid of? That more and more people might change their minds?

You seem to be confused about the current definition of democracy. Anything which gets in the way of the “will of the people” (37% of them) is undemocratic.

@kelvin for a while Germany was actually the number 1 exporter in the world (high value stuff like cars vs China lower value in huge volume). Scale I think is billions of euros. It’s in the paper (linked to). Yes Germany exports much much more than we do, one reason why the euro suits them as it’s far weaker a currency than the Deutsche Mark would be. As a major exporter EU suits Germany.

@mike all these doom amd gloom forecats (a summary table in the Cambridge Uni report btw) where for immediate economic catastrophe upon a Leave vote. They had nothing to do with timing of A50 and the actual exit process. What May et al have done is by flagging up the A50 date far in advance is to allow the markets to adjust to the news. Niw when it’s triggered it will be a surprise to no one. Trading cliché is buy the rumour sell the fact, so from a £ vs $/€ perspective it’s quite possibke we will see a recovery in March.

I see the bank of England is now trying to wiggle out of their ludicrous and disasterous forecasts describing them as their Michael Fish (there will be no hurricane) moment.

Putting both sides of the argument is one thing but name calling and insults is something else. Remain failed as they where totally unable to make a positive case. Even the “cheerleaders” spoke about the need for reform. We’ve seen what EU reform looks like over the last 20 years and it’s 180 degrees in the oppostite direction from what we are calling for. We’ve seen Junker’s responce, he’s put an EU Army back at the top of the agenda.

Had the Reman case been – if we vote Leave economic growth will fall from 2.2 to 1.4 (I think those are the numbers) but still be best in G7, currency will fall vs $/€, Article 50’will be triggered after 9 months (allowing us to exit before ‘May 2019 European Elections) … then imo the Leave vote would have been even stronger. Leave campaigners said there would be a bump in the road but that it would be worth it.

As a major exporter EU suits Germany.

Agreed.

They had nothing to do with timing of A50 and the actual exit process

Wrong.

What May et al have done is by flagging up the A50 date far in advance is to allow the markets to adjust to the news.

Agreed again! Blimey. Those calling for an “immediate” triggering of A50 after the vote where economically illiterate.

A transitional arrangement to allow for the much greater adjustments to come would save a lot of businesses hitting the wall. I hope May & Hammond keep sight of that, and don’t go full nuclear to please the Hard Brexit WTO fall back nutters believers.

@mike all these doom amd gloom forecats

the news being that it will be shite just like they said and you and Brexiteers denied that news

The best you can claim is that remain overestimated the extent of the negativity whilst leave completely ignored it and their predictions of it being economically good – you are ,still, arguing we win even if its just WTO for example which is completely ,utterly and totally false. Incorrect at best outright lie at worst from you and leave.
Anyone who can do facts knows this and your spin is as pathetic as your intellectual rigour.

Only you would have the intellectual integrity to claim that report as a victory for leave

Possibly a score draw if you wish to be hopelessly optimistic and clearly you do in all things fact related t things you dont like which most of us term reality,

I see the bank of England is now trying to wiggle out of their ludicrous and disasterous forecasts describing them as their Michael Fish (there will be no hurricane) moment.

Economist in “not understanding non-linear systems” not-very-big shocker!!

However, there’s a difference between an expert making a prediction based on the data they have, using the best model they have (notwithstanding its problems) and a lay person saying “it’ll all be fine because …. errr … because “.

We need this again:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/lack-of-brexit-effects-proves-brexit-has-not-yet-happened-20160915113825

Dr Helen Archer of the LSE said: “The UK is currently showing the growth, rising employment and controlled inflation of what we term a ‘pre-Brexit’ economy.

We still have all our trade deals and agreements in place.
We have put off losing them for an extra 9 months (good move).
We haven’t yet declared that we’ll be losing them all (transitional agreement not yet ruled out).

Remain failed as they where totally unable to make a positive case.

Please provide some real tangible, and most importantly, likely positive outcomes of Brexit happening within the next two years. Extra points if you can do a good job of highlighting how these positives will outweigh any negatives, many of which we’re already seeing.

Please provide some real tangible, and most importantly, likely positive outcomes of Brexit happening within the next two years. Extra points if you can do a good job of highlighting how these positives will outweigh any negatives, many of which we’re already seeing.

Are you new here, or what?

£350 million a week for the NHS. Why couldn’t the Remain side provide some positives like that?

Are you new here, or what?

No, I’m just giving him the chance to put his money where his mouth is. He’s had a little whinge about name-calling, I’m just trying to demonstrate to him that often mud sticks for a reason.

Remain failed as they where totally unable to make a positive case.[/I]

Jamba, I think we all are in agreement with you on this, but that still doesn’t mean that the Govt should chuck the UK off the economic ‘cliff’ because of the result of a (non-binding) referendum.

Thanks for the link Jambas – and interesting read, although more a technical debate between economists re the nature of their models and underlying assumptions. Interesting that you point to the Cambridge approach which draws on the work of the late Wynne Godley which has a very different approach to current deficit levels that the one that you generally refer to. The technical stuff aside:

1. They conclude that Brexshit has a negative effect, but quantifying this is difficult
2. That falling back on WTO has the most negative effect of the various options
3. Re the Treasury model, we have already seen the effect on £ and inflation expectations are above their results – so lets not be too quick to trash the analysis – we have yet to see the impact on growth or employment since it is too early obvously
4. Economists disagree about the impact on consumer spending with Cambridge being on the more optimistic end and currently correctly so

we should not forget that we are in extraordinary times

1. we have a major expansionary boost to the economy via the depreciation in the currency
2. interest rates are held at artificially low levels in order to stimulate econ activity (stealing off savers in the process to support the addiction to consumption).
3. Consumption is being financed through debt
4. The gov continues to run an expansive fiscal policy – spending more than it receives

We really would be in trouble if after all this largely “articificial” support that the economy was in ST doom!

In the meantime, I am still interested in how WTO will work!! Any links to this too?

@mike all these doom amd gloom forecats (a summary table in the Cambridge Uni report btw) where for immediate economic catastrophe upon a Leave vote.

No, the timescales are available in the table as you suggest

They had nothing to do with timing of A50 and the actual exit process.

yes it does, both affect the variables included

stealing off savers

no matter how often you say this or something like it it is and will always be what you term post truth politics or complete BS if someone else says it

Its just is not true even the phrase held artificially low is BS

on R4 news this morning, just caught the end of an article where it said one of our strong cards in the negotiation with the EU is our defence and security position. Which i don’t deny we are strong in, but is it even a card? can we really suggest if we don’t get the deals we want on trade and movement then we won’t co-operate any more with defence and security?

umbrage over brexit negotiation vs nato commitment would be a toughee for mrs mayhem and the three stooges 😀