The only combinations of children we can have with two are : M M. M F. F F. All of which are equally likely 25%. The question states that one child is female. We cannot get M M so we are left with three options, FF, F M , M F - or 33% chance of two females. This is what actually happens in the real world.
Again as I have said saying 50% is clearly correct we only hve two choices male or female and each chance is 50% IF THAT IS ALL YOU KNOW or you want to use dedcuative reasoning only. However as the maths above shows you will actually have F F in 33% of all scenarios with one female as 25% of scenarios ( M M ) cannot occur and are not in your sample.
Assuming that you've already flipped the 1p (resulting in Tails), And assuming that there may or may not be another 1p coin (which you haven't specified) the answer is 50%. The next coin will land on one side or the other. The landing of the previous coin will not affect the outcome.
You are correct in that example but if the two coins are already flipped and you are told one is tails the odds of the other being a tail is not 50 /50. If you want to do this with flipped coins and we flip two get at keast one tail and you call heads and I call tails for the other one . I will do it for £100 a throw for 1000 times and you can see if it was 50/ 50
we throw 25% of coins away and this alters the odds. One result does not cause the other though.
scaredypants - Member
junkyard, I think it's too small a sample to expect to apply population averages
It is a probability so we would need to do it for a number of measures to be certain of it's accuracy. We could get any combination no matter how unlikely on one measure - the odds being 1/27.
You either get this or you dont it is counter intuiative but is is correct. I undersatnd why people say 50/50but itis not correct
