Not much movement anywhere in the race at the moment, except election betting odds where in the last few days there has been a big swing from Harris to Trump (well, from 52% Harris likelihood to 52% Trump likelihood which given the fact things have barely moved for weeks is a big swing).
I suspect it has something to do with Musk bigging up polymarket during his Trump shilling session causing a bunch of tech/crypto bros to start betting on Trump (because they understand probability less than they understand tech).
It’s particularly visible on the state betting.
Nate Silver actually posted about this recently which is interesting as he is an advisor for polymarket but unfortunately the juicy bits are behind a paywall.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/whats-behind-trumps-surge-in-prediction
Don’t suppose anyone who happens to give Silver £15 a month fancies giving us the gist?