There are a lot of signs that the bike industry is going to struggle in 2023, so we thought we'd start a story to track some of the stories we hear ab ...
By stwhannah
Get the full story here:
https://singletrackworld.com/2023/05/tracking-the-health-of-the-bike-industry-in-2023/
A correction in the bike industry is long overdue. When bicycles are more expensive than motorbikes and some cars then you know the industry has gone potty. Sheer greed at the moment with lots of ridiculously overblown pricetags. £15k bikes?? £500 jackets?? £90 tyres?? £400 cassettes?? Utter madness and something had to give. I feel real sorrow for anyone who loses their livelihoods but the writing has been on the wall for some time im afraid.
When bicycles are more expensive than motorbikes and some cars then you know the industry has gone potty.
People always compare the most expensive bikes with average, or budget, Motos though. What’s the average price of a bike vs a Moto? Is the (whole) watch market potty because some cost more than an average house?
If there is stock on shelves not moving shouldn't some of it be liquidated?
Why do that rather than wait and sell it at a higher price in due course - as long as bills can still be paid.
People always compare the most expensive bikes with average, or budget, Motos though.
It's difficult to make a direct comparison with any other industry. Bicycles still use standards (despite the best efforts of the big players) and parts are fairly interchangeable between bikes. Most parts on motorbikes fit that bike and no others (although of course, not to the same extent as with cars).
I think it's more interesting to compare bicycles to desktop computers. With desktop computers you have parts which mostly fit together. You can either buy a complete PC or you can buy the individual parts and build it yourself. The difference is that it costs slightly less to build a PC yourself than to buy a pre-built one (or at least it was last time I built a PC).
Try building a bike from parts and even getting close to the price of a complete bike, even going to the grey market importers who can sell parts to consumers cheaper than bike shops can buy the parts in.
I'm not going to say bikes and bike parts are too expensive. However, I think there are some serious discrepancies in some of the pricing models. It's not good for bike shops and it's not good for consumers.
A correction in the bike industry is long overdue. When bicycles are more expensive than motorbikes and some cars then you know the industry has gone potty.
It's not related to all that. The real top end is the part of the industry that isn't as affected, or at least their customers aren't. The bikes are devalued by the rest of the ranges being marked down but if you want the best model + spec and they only made 200 it'll retain some value.
as long as bills can still be paid.
That's the crux of it. For how long? Market's unlikely to get back to normal stock levels for at least a year. You have stock for what you thought was maybe 2 months that is now 12 month's worth. It's massively devalued by so many others being in the same position and discounting so you can't speed up rate of sale with a normal discount level. Overheads have the same or higher costs than before.
I am sad to see the likes of Stanton fold, but I don't have much sympathy for some of the big bike and component manufacturers who coined it in during the pandemic & lockdown.
UK consumers will have noticed that the falling £ has led to inflated costs - this isn't the fault of manufacturers, I'll let you speculate why.
How about smogmonster's post without the comparison everyone leapt on:
"A correction in the bike industry is long overdue. The sheer greed at the moment with lots of ridiculously overblown pricetags. £15k bikes?? £500 jackets?? £90 tyres?? £400 cassettes?? Utter madness..."
only people with more money than sense can disagree with that.
Aside from that, just noticed tonight that a bike shop near me appears to be closing down. Opened about 5 years ago, got [url= https://bikebiz.com/gabriel-cycles-issues-update-on-break-in/amp/ ]ransacked by scumbags[/url] shortly after opening. Now looks pretty much cleared out
I've said it before and it is worth saying again...mountain biking is expensive and in many cases, prices are higher as manufacturers can seel at that price as consumers are willing to spend that money. Mountain biking is a huge market these days so it is far easier to find people willing to spend that amount, certainly having far fewer people buying kit at high prices would have an impact, but probably not much. There are loads of people who won't/can't afford the high prices for high end kit, but those who can appear to be a growing market so prices will continue to rise. It can't last, but it has lasted longer than I'd hoped. Never good when people lose livelihoods though.
only people with more disposable income than me can disagree with that.
FTFY, without wanting to be rude. Those prices reflect the absolute top of the market, not the entry or even average. The same way a 200k Land Rover doesn’t reflect the car market.
I hope Ribble don't go bust as I've just chosen my bike 2 work voucher value based on one of their bikes 😉
Although others are reporting this as a bit of a non story https://road.cc/content/news/cycling-live-blog-3-january-2023-298333#live-blog-item-41999
OK, fair enough. Apart from the absolute top end of the market, everything is reasonably and sensibly priced and the bike industry will have no problem flogging stuff to average income folk and will continue to thrive in 2023. Cool.
OK, fair enough. Apart from the absolute top end of the market, everything is reasonably and sensibly priced and the bike industry will have no problem flogging stuff to average income folk and will continue to thrive in 2023. Cool.
Average income was £30k last year (roughly what I earn), I reckon those people earn enough to afford an average priced, enthusiast spec MTB, depending on other priorities they have for their cash. If those priorities start to change, and they might well, that’s when the industry will struggle, or prices will drop, if there is room for them to.
When bicycles are more expensive than motorbikes and some cars then you know the industry has gone potty
the cheapest new car is now £13k (dacia sandero). I might be wrong, but I don't *think* you can buy a non-e-bike from a non-boutique brand that costs that much. santa cruz, yeti et al seem to top out around £10k
I think 5 years ago when the bottom end cars were £7k there were more bikes that were more expensive..
the cheapest new car is now £13k (dacia sandero). I might be wrong, but I don’t *think* you can buy a non-e-bike from a non-boutique brand that costs that much. santa cruz, yeti et al seem to top out around £10k
£13.4k for the range topping Trek Slash. Electric gears and suspension, but no motor. Most expensive thing available is more expensive than the cheapest different thing shock.
In 2002 a Gary Fisher Sugar 1 was about £3k which would be about £8.2k now based on currency differences, BoE inflation calculations and including adding the extra VAT. If there was an equivalent today (XTR, aluminium frame), I reckon it would be about that...
The quality of stuff now is, I reckon, much better than it was 20 years ago too.
How about smogmonster’s post without the comparison everyone leapt on:
Tbh I just cut the quote short at that bit about motorbikes. My reply was about how the issues in the industry post-covid aren't about price levels. Price levels or vfm is moderated by competition and demand in normal times anyway.
big bike and component manufacturers who coined it in during the pandemic & lockdown.
I'm not sure it was all "coining it in" the materials that bikes are made of certainly didn't get any cheaper the scarcer they got. They was inevitably a little price markup but I don't think greed is the whole story.
If you look at the large manufacturers websites there is a huge range of bikes available. Perhaps the current problems stem from too many niches and models. It must puch up costs.
Standardisation, some hope, I need to change the BB on my newest bike (2020) for which I now need yet another bottom bracket tool, this will now sit in the toolbox with the other 4 different ones. Through axles, bought an adapter for my Thule roof carrier, the new bike needs a different size as the boost axle is longer.
Components are not as good quality as they were, my 18 year old Trek still has the original XT mech, shifters, brakes, which work fine after 18 winters, yes it’s had loads of jockey wheels, the bb is a screw in cartridge type and done at least 10 muddy winters.
Got to admit very disappointed with my newest bike (£1275 hard tail) to the point of parting with it and using the old original instead.
How about smogmonster’s post without the comparison everyone leapt on:
“A correction in the bike industry is long overdue. The sheer greed at the moment with lots of ridiculously overblown pricetags. £15k bikes?? £500 jackets?? £90 tyres?? £400 cassettes?? Utter madness…”
only people with more money than sense can disagree with that.
I earn below the average wage but perhaps I still have more money than sense? I dunno, in a world where Rolexes, Ferraris, yachts, £50k handbags and whatever else exist, it's not different to other premium/luxury goods for rich people.
They can have their Ferrari, I'll keep my second hand family hatchback. And if they want to buy a £15k bike, great, crack on, maybe it will keep a few more niche framebuilders in business.
The sheer greed at the moment with lots of ridiculously overblown pricetags. £15k bikes?? £500 jackets?? £90 tyres?? £400 cassettes?? Utter madness…”
Otoh you can walk into halfords and buy a tyre for <£20,sports direct you can buy a bike for <£300 that for 99% of people will do exactly what they want it to do. Turn the pedals it goes forwards, squeeze the brakes it stops.
That you're even looking at these things in a different light to how I view the aforementioned rolex or ferrari means you're in the 0.1% It's hobbyist stuff on a site dedicated to hobbyists with a potentially expensive hobby. You can spend £120 on a football but you can play football with one which cost £1.20.
Bikes are not expensive, bits that make bikes are not expensive, expensive things are expensive be that a £5 loaf of sourdough or a £500 xtr cassette.
What is the latest news on Stanton - did they ever manage to find a new backer?
I am not sure many people in cycle industry are retiring to the mansion & country estate, and I do think prices currently are more about costs than greed.
I do wonder if we have all been sucked into the Newer Better Stiffer Technology Acronym churn that is the bike industry.
We 'expect' to have full suspension with the next iteration of damping, best gears which are 5.7% stiffer, carbon bars that save 3.2grammes, clothing which is all on-point colour and logo wise, and a team in the world cup we can aspire too. We expect our bike to (perversely) smooth the rough trails we all love, speed us up despite lack of skill and fitness and associate us with the Pro team and a VW T6.
We are sucked into a sport where bigger / higher / steeper *must* be better - yet the difference in the wear and damage my sons bikes get is disproportionate to the extra speed they enjoy.
I do think that hardtails, with Deore level gearing, simple damping and durability as much as being the fastest in the bike park, where a focus on fun not outright performance is due to kick in.
I predict fun and simple bikes coming to the fore.
Canyon and Vitus etc are still putting out full-sus bikes for 2-3k that can do pretty much all UK (and alpine) riding, more like 1 - 1.5k if you want a hardtail.
eMTB's cost a fortune though. What are the cheapest ones, 5k? And a 2 year warranty before you're forking out potentially 1k for a motor (with a delay of several months) or 400 or whatever a repair costs, plus the other normal servicing.
My plan is to get before my EMTB runs out of warranty. I'll see how that goes....
I do think that hardtails, with Deore level gearing, simple damping and durability as much as being the fastest in the bike park, where a focus on fun not outright performance is due to kick in.
I think this is the thing, we here, (for the most part at least) seem to think a deore equipped bike with a Reba is entry level - just look at the kids bike threads - rather than actually the lower of the high end enthusiast stuff.
It's not the industry that needs reframing, it's us lot.
eMTB’s cost a fortune though. What are the cheapest ones, 5k?
They're not, they're under a grand
When bicycles are more expensive than motorbikes and some cars then you know the industry has gone potty.
People always compare the most expensive bikes with average, or budget, Motos though. What’s the average price of a bike vs a Moto? Is the (whole) watch market potty because some cost more than an average house?
Motorcycle trials bikes are a fair comparison I'd say. They mostly use the same suspension, brakes, wheels, tyres, controls. Frames, engines & plastics are the unique items to each manufacurer. A new 2023 model will range in price from £6 to £8.5k list price.
It’s not the industry that needs reframing, it’s us lot.
Agreed with that.
I do think the lower end of the market will continue OK - I know a few folk who are looking at losing a car and gaining a sub £500 commuter bike...
I do think for many of us, a Deore Hardtail IS a significant downgrade in speed - but IMO a win for fun...
What is the latest news on Stanton – did they ever manage to find a new backer?
I don't believe so, but I heard from them the other day as I'd ordered some spare dropouts, they are at least shipping those again, but that won't keep them afloat or attract an investor.
I do think for many of us, a Deore Hardtail IS a significant downgrade in speed – but IMO a win for fun…
We'd probably mostly find that all that really dull not steep enough etc riding is actually pretty good after all/just like it used to be before we spent 12k on a "better bike" that actually made things worse.
“A correction in the bike industry is long overdue. The sheer greed at the moment with lots of ridiculously overblown pricetags. £15k bikes?? £500 jackets?? £90 tyres?? £400 cassettes?? Utter madness…”
But these are very tip-most of a huge pile of equipment at every price point. You can equally buy bikes for £500, tyres for £15, jackets for £30 and cassettes for a tenner. Sport equipment of all shapes and sizes has always has wildly expensive gear alongside the more reasonably priced
The bike industry might not be vulnerable because of some opportunistic price increases - but they've certainly increased the cynicism or contempt that many of us have for some bike companies or distributors. There may not be so much sympathy as there was for Stanton in all cases.
Personally I think many bike price increases may quietly be reversed, despite all the justifications (real and exaggerated) related to rising costs. Bike companies might have thought "right, £3k is the benchmark for a basic full-sus now" but that doesn't mean people will keep paying it as cheaper options re-emerge.
seem to think a deore equipped bike with a Reba is entry level – just look at the kids bike threads – rather than actually the lower of the high end enthusiast stuff.
Both those things might be true though.
I'm sure there are some quite rideable £500 / £600 bikes from Vitus, Halfords or Decathlon - but most of us would probably advise a friend looking to get into MTBing to aim for Deore and a decent fork.
Personally I think many bike price increases may quietly be reversed,
This years SWorks enduro is £10k, down from £11.5k last year.
Otoh you can walk into halfords and buy a tyre for <£20,sports direct you can buy a bike for <£300 that for 99% of people will do exactly what they want it to do. Turn the pedals it goes forwards, squeeze the brakes it stops.
That you’re even looking at these things in a different light to how I view the aforementioned rolex or ferrari means you’re in the 0.1% It’s hobbyist stuff on a site dedicated to hobbyists with a potentially expensive hobby. You can spend £120 on a football but you can play football with one which cost £1.20.
Bikes are not expensive, bits that make bikes are not expensive, expensive things are expensive be that a £5 loaf of sourdough or a £500 xtr cassette.
+1
There are always companies which make things for the top 1% be it Rolls Royce cars, Rolex watches of £400 cassettes. Nothing new here at all....
Also... Model years. The largely unnecessary "upgrading" every 12 months. Sometimes it's not much more than a colour change. It places the shops at a disadvantage as unsold stock has to be marked down before the next years stock arrives. If there was less annual churn then RRP could actually be lowered. Some of that is the fault of the component suppliers too. The likes of Rockshox seem to change things on not much more than a whim.
There are still bargains to be had out there. The likes of Ribble, Sonder and to some extent Planet X still give consumers a good product at a good price. Consumers need to be a bit more savvy (and I am sure we all are on here judging by the number of PSA's on the forum)
Ebay often has bargains from the wiggle outlet store ( a New Vitus Sommet with a tiny cosmetic went for £1380).
My last bike which i bought last year cost £1k. A Carbon framed fat bike from Sonder that was an ex demo. Ive done all my kit shopping for the year in the sales.
If folk want to spend £8k and more on a bike the finance is available, but looking at some of the sales there are not many mid range bikes on offer.
This often says the stock isnt available, as its sold out, or it isnt going to be discounted anyway.
Bike companies might have thought “right, £3k is the benchmark for a basic full-sus now”
They haven't though. Look at the voodoo, boardman, Saracen etc stuff and it's not 3k, it's less than 1k for a basic full suss.
The issue isn't that a basic fs is too expensive (it might be but it's not in the realm we're talking) it's that we all look at a basic fs with a sneer.
We're moaning that a basic beach holiday is too expensive because we can't get to the four and a half, five star resort in the Seychelles for less than 6k.
See also "I need a cheap new car, which 9yr old BMW...(that's more expensive than a 4yr old megane but I won't drive a citroen)"
Motorcycle trials bikes are a fair comparison I’d say
But less so in terms of how the products are made and there's 2 problems in the bike industry at the moment, the misjudgement of the boom+bust cycle from covid and how reliant bike brands are on the OEM supply chain, frames onward. A motorbike is more in house production, a smaller % of it's value made up of OEM parts. Plus the motorbike/car industry is so far ahead of the bike industry in terms of supply chain management and logistics so I doubt the whiplash created by changes in demand is as dramatic.
it’s not 3k, it’s less than 1k for a basic full suss.
Sorry I should have been more specific. To clarify, I meant where the range starts for "premium" bike ranges.
e.g. Fuel EX, Stumpjumper kind-of bikes.
A £3k bike with a RockShox 35 fork on is taking the piss and they know it.
I meant where the range starts for “premium” bike ranges.
Want premium, pay premium.
You can get better for less money if you stop being a tart about it. (said as a self confessed tart)
I find it interesting that we're mostly judging the health of the bike industry based on bike/frame manufacturers. But the "bike industry" isn't just bikes.
I reckon what you may well see in 23/24 is more about people choosing not to spunk vast sums on bikes/frames/forks, and instead focussing their available spending spend on parts, clothing and accessories instead. Tracking the fortunes of companies that deal in those areas might be an important indicator of industry health.
The health of the market i.e. people participating in cycling and therefore buying bike related stuff might be better judged based on those "Suplimentary" sales.
If (big if) ecconomic conditions are looking healthier come 2025 then bike sales to all those people who've "muddled through" on a 3 year old bike and only bought new shoes and shorts may be in a position to throw more cash at the likes of santa cruz and SBC, you can at least gauge the size of the remaining market.
“muddled through” on a 3 year old bike
Oh, the tough times! : )
It's a good point and boom and bust prob won't just settle afterwards, it'll carry on to+fro for a bit. The number of riders who buy parts and upgrade or carry parts over across frames is pretty small in general though and a tiny part of the market when looking at the range of bikes that are overstocked currently - £250 bikes all the way up to £5k+.
It is a time when a canny trader should do well. There's a lot of oem kit stuck mid-chain and there are clearance specialists who find it and just need to put the right deals in front of customers. But that really doesn't help our local IBDs, to your first point - the bike industry really isn't just bike brands.
£3k for a full suspension?, well if you head over to wiggle/crc, it would seem nukeproof and vitus have over stocked
£1.9k-2.25k for an mega or reactor or escarpe / sommet
full sussers
£3k for a full suspension?, well if you head over to wiggle/crc, it would seem nukeproof and vitus have over stocked
£1.9k-2.25k for an mega or reactor or escarpe / sommet
full sussers
Exactly.
Hopefully a sign that prices are going to settle back down a bit, going forwards.
Want premium, pay premium.
You can get better for less money if you stop being a tart about it.
I'm not sure you've grasped my point, it's not about what I am prepared to pay - but what's realistic and achievable for base model bikes.
Interesting read this . I grabbed an Onza Jackpot 3 years ago for £699 , quality steel frame , Revelations and a Reverb included . Geometry isn’t “ on trend” but as the guy at Onza said when I pointed that out “ Trails we ride in this country are still the same as they’ve always been they haven’t got any steeper or more technical “
When this bike came out it was over £2K Singletrack had one on test they loved everything about it apart from the price tag ! Contrast that with the Orbea Rise I bought last year admittedly a totally different bike but for just pissing about in the woods which is what most of us do the Onza is perfectly fine. There’s something liberating about riding a bike that costs less than the motor for the Rise !
as the guy at Onza said when I pointed that out “ Trails we ride in this country are still the same as they’ve always been they haven’t got any steeper or more technical “
That's surely bollocks. As bikes have evolved, so have the trails in order to match them.
I’m not sure you’ve grasped my point, it’s not about what I am prepared to pay – but what’s realistic and achievable for base model bikes
Maybe we're missing each others, 🤷🏻
The natural trails are still the same other than erosion, don't know about man made trails as I rarely ride them.
Do you not think that (some) folk are riding more extreme "natural" lines than they used to? Certainly seems to be that way from my observations.
scotroutes he was referencing natural stuff not the likes of BPW et al .
but there some natural trails are harder than others. with a better handling bike, the harder natural trails become more accessible.
This thread could merge with the 'redefining the image of the sport' article thread very soon at this rate
scotroutes he was referencing natural stuff not the likes of BPW et al .
See my comments immediately above yours.
This thread could merge with the ‘redefining the image of the sport’ article thread very soon at this rate
no one is trying to encourage new participants!
I don't think anybody can deny that it's going to be a tough start to the year for the bike industry.
From the people I know, shop sales have pretty much nose dived.
Distributors are overstocked with what stock has been available from manufacturers.
Bike shops don't want any more stock, as it's likely to just sit on the shelf.
The big question is going to be how long distributors and shops can endure lack of sales.
My guess is if there isn't a big ease up in cost of living by mid-spring, there's going to be a lot of good bargains to be had on what stock is available, as distributors/shops get desperate for cash flow.
However I suspect there's also going to be further shortages as distributors will already be scaling back orders, so if demand does ramp up, there isn't going to be stock available to buy.
no one is trying to encourage new participants!
To the thread or the sport?
(sorry haha)
Well as I (neil SuperstarComponents) work in the industry with friends everywhere from the big distributors to the taiwan/china factories I’m in a good place to know. As I’m focusing more and more on non-bike manufacturing, I also don’t need to put on the bull£&@t marketing face and pretend it’s all A-OK like most who are stuck in it.
First forget about the top end stuff, if you can afford to drop £10k on a bike you aren’t even aware a recession is firmly here. It gets the headlines and the reviews but 99.99% of the market isn’t this. In the real world margins are thin and people have their hands in their pockets as they are terrified by their next electric bill.
If you look at the public face certain brands put out and then you find out how much money they are pouring down the drain each month. It’s easy to be cool when you’re wasting your investors money. Then they stuff all their suppliers and take down good honest businesses. The administration statement of a certain company made chilling reading…
Asia is imploding, the big companies have slashed their huge forward orders and stiffed the suppliers. If giant doesn’t pay, their huge supply chain can’t pay their suppliers or staff. I’ve heard of lot’s going pop and huge job losses. I’ve been told two year order books have completely gone and they are now looking for anything to make on a week by week basis. Because things look rocky their banks have pulled credit lines and continue the spiral.
Distribution is packed full of stock but it’s mostly not what you want. They are going to be binning it out cheap to pay the bills but you can only build half a bike. All this is on financed money which has skyrocketed in cost along with inevitable huge increases in wages (not that you will be any better off). So yes realistically it’s going up in price after the fire sale.
China is probably going to be a covid nightmare for the next six months, so supply chains are going to fall apart some more. So your cheap parts will need very expensive parts to finish your build.
Basically everyone has said sales has nosedived and they are battening down the hatches. Some will do desperation sales for cash, others will hang on for prices to go up. I’m aiming for the latter like 2009 when everything virtually doubled in price.
Why put prices up. Well aluminium has skyrocketed, electric is insane, everything from tooling to coolant, card boxes etc all up. Anodising gone up so much it’s not worth selling small cheap stuff. I actually think retail prices right now are so low it’s not worth making bike parts in the U.K. but inflation on retail price always lags reality.
So am I worried. I am for the bike business but the cull of businesses will mean 2024 might be profitable if you get there. I’m going to be small and nimble to move where the work pays. I’ll make some bike stuff but don’t expect big things as people just won’t want to pay a realistic price for it right now. I’ve got plenty of medical parts to make but right now my bike clients are deadly silent. Grim times ahead.
Neil SuperstarComponents
That's an interesting read Neil, thanks.
Here's a silly question, do you think you would ever consider getting into 'soft goods' i.e. clothing and bags as an option? Or is that already a stuffed market?
It occured to me earlier when thinking about this thread that bike clothing may well see some small of uptick as people swear off new bikes and parts for a year or two.
@cookeaa - Velovixen have just folded. Suggests tough times in that market too? I guess the immediate competitor would be Alpkit so might be worth keeping an eye on their fortunes, though a new branch opening in Inverness suggests things might be fine for them at the moment.
i think so much comes down to personal circumstances when it comes to buying bikes and parts, which clearly is what is effecting the industry (outside of the supply chain stuff that Neil from Superstar just mentioned).
For example, i am after a change in bike and my friend is also in the same boat.
I just sold my gravel bike, which has cleared a credit card. This now allows me a bit more disposable income i can squirrel away and put towards a new frame. I say new.... it will be second hand. The first second hand bike/frame i have ever bought (i'm after a megatower V1 in large if anyone is getting rid!). I am thinking of selling my jump bike and turbo trainer to speed this process up.
I will then transfer over the parts from my current bike. should only need an airshaft to lengthen the fork and a BB.
My friend on the other hand, he has sold his Starling frame, which has taken a small chunk out of the £4500 Atherton frame he has on order. He has also bought some Manitou Mezzer's, had some Crank Bros Sythesis rims built up on 240 hubs, plus new tyres, chain etc.
Granted, he earns a bit more money than me, but has no kids and a wife that earns well. So has far far higher disposable income.
He also has used out LBD for the wheels etc, whereas i will be online shopping for the best price.
After typing all that, i'm not really sure what my point is, other than the amount two very similar people are willing to spend can be vastly different and where they spend it. My days of getting credit or finance for bikes are long gone. The latest Fox gear now stays on the shelves and i wear my stuff until its dead. And when i do buy new stuff, its more reasonably priced gear from the likes of Nukeproof etc.
Very interesting to get your insight Neil, you seem to suggest that Asian suppliers will bear the brunt of the slump (alongside independent bike shops?) - with bike brands attempting to insulate themselves?
And I guess we'll find out if any brands have really over-extended themselves and go bust / have to cut loads of jobs.
I wouldn't blame you for retreating to core products for bikes - consumables like brake pads and chainrings must be safe bets? Time to finally get those Shimano DM chainrings made, perhaps.
Definitely an interesting read Neil. I guess the real question is also what companies did with the cash from the bumper sales they all made during COVID. Im sure some will have given it away in bonuses, dividends etc in. Others may have been more prudent knowing the supply chain issues were well know. I fully accept the rise in energy prices was unexpected, but presumably raw material prices are based on supply and demand.
It would be an ideal time for the bike industry to be building cheap reliable commuting bikes rather than Kashima covered bling baubles - I've noticed a few new wobblers on my work commute. The cost of 2nd hand cars nowadays has no doubt forced a few people.
It would be an ideal time for the bike industry to be building cheap reliable commuting bikes rather than Kashima covered bling baubles
You can buy both now. Always have been able to. There's a huge range of bikes out there. Always has been.
Perhaps Singletrack could seek more opinions and analysis from bike industry figures on the situation and put a proper feature article together? Rather than the slightly redundant compilation of doom & gloom stories in the OP.
See my comments immediately above yours.
I'd even say the natural stuff being ridden is harder/techier than it was. Lines that never existed are created even in off-piste, but they're now created harder than before... so even taking into account the person was talking about non trailcenter trails, it's still wrong to think it's 'the same'
Sure, the same trails are still there... but they're not the only trails.
Cha****ng- the problem with asking the people in the industry is they aren’t going to say it’s terrible as it affects their company and job. All you will get is a typical PR piece saying it’s all going great because until they fold they aren’t going to say otherwise. Their own job relies on it… my point is I’m not reliant on bike parts anymore so can just tell the truth.
Clothes. Hell no! A warehouse full of the wrong colours and sizes which you have to redesign twice a year and Chuck what’s left in a skip. It’s only profitable in huge volumes at ultra low margins, the big boys use it as a loss leader for marketing.
The cash from bumper Covid sales went into paying the massively increased costs of goods and shipping. I doubt much if it is left
What you need to think is not turnover but profit. Bear in mind in a decade my electric unit price has gone up forty times, not 40% but forty times! Chainring metal plate up 2-3 times, ano doubling or more. So machining stuff is a lot more expensive yet prices have bearly gone up yet…. So do I make medical parts or bike parts when one pays 5 times more?
Things ain’t even got expensive yet so don’t fool yourself there’s going to be endless bargains.
Neil SuperstarComponents
Very interesting to get your insight Neil, you seem to suggest that Asian suppliers will bear the brunt of the slump (alongside independent bike shops?) – with bike brands attempting to insulate themselves?
Taiwan works on a bizarrely non-committal approach. Its basically a case of order, pay before you collect (or have a credit line). Very few contracts, not a lot of comeback for either party if one walks away.
It used to be that you couldn't really walk as you'd burn that bridge and getting up and running again would be hard, but now we're seeing companies doing it routinely and then going back to the self same supplier.
Very few companies are as open as Neil or us for sure, but you only need a couple to get a feel for it, and yep, it's brutal out there. Many, many of the companies you know (and possibly love) are leveraged to the hilt with debt to fuel their marketing/DH team/XC Team etc. aspirations, they're some of the biggest brands and I would say most at risk right now.
To answer @chakaping this story was to create a tracker of events through the year - it's not meant to have any analysis, more to build an overview as the year goes on. We've got three different industry/manufacturing stories in the works, but it takes time to interview and round up people from the industry across different time zones, etc. And that costs money, so I have to keep producing other stories in the mean time.
Another swing of the axe at Specialized
Halfords reporting a 20% drop in bike sales
https://road.cc/content/news/halfords-cycling-market-down-20-cent-year-year-298563
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/warranty-denied-as-i-stripped-the-bike-down/
Just going to post a link to this thread. It might be interesting to see if any other big manufacturers stop honouring warranties.
VeloVixen returns!
https://stolengoat.com/2023/02/news-from-stolen-goat-hq/
Stolen Goat have snapped them up, and also Wildcat, makes of fine bikepacking kit.
High end mountain bikes used to be £6k and super bikes £10k. Super bikes are now £20k - £25k, so why wouldn't a top end mountain bike be £12-15k? Today a £6k bike would wipe the floor of a bike of the same price ten years ago, with or without a motor.
Only worth what someone is willing to pay for it
Sadly, it looks like the distributor Moore Large are the latest to add to the list. Probably not a household name to the consumer but well known in the industry and have been around a while.
Probably not a household name
Who can forget the wonderful range of Emmelle MTBs? 80s/90s classics... or not.
My first proper MTB was an Emmelle, it had 29" wheels, hybrid tyres and a two tone faded paint job. It was a bit shit. But weirdly way ahead of its time...