Tracking The Health Of The Bike Industry In 2023

scotroutes he was referencing natural stuff not the likes of BPW et al .

but there some natural trails are harder than others. with a better handling bike, the harder natural trails become more accessible.

This thread could merge with the 'redefining the image of the sport' article thread very soon at this rate

scotroutes he was referencing natural stuff not the likes of BPW et al .

See my comments immediately above yours.

This thread could merge with the ‘redefining the image of the sport’ article thread very soon at this rate

no one is trying to encourage new participants!

I don't think anybody can deny that it's going to be a tough start to the year for the bike industry.

From the people I know, shop sales have pretty much nose dived.
Distributors are overstocked with what stock has been available from manufacturers.
Bike shops don't want any more stock, as it's likely to just sit on the shelf.

The big question is going to be how long distributors and shops can endure lack of sales.

My guess is if there isn't a big ease up in cost of living by mid-spring, there's going to be a lot of good bargains to be had on what stock is available, as distributors/shops get desperate for cash flow.
However I suspect there's also going to be further shortages as distributors will already be scaling back orders, so if demand does ramp up, there isn't going to be stock available to buy.

no one is trying to encourage new participants!

To the thread or the sport?
(sorry haha)

Well as I (neil SuperstarComponents) work in the industry with friends everywhere from the big distributors to the taiwan/china factories I’m in a good place to know. As I’m focusing more and more on non-bike manufacturing, I also don’t need to put on the bull£&@t marketing face and pretend it’s all A-OK like most who are stuck in it.

First forget about the top end stuff, if you can afford to drop £10k on a bike you aren’t even aware a recession is firmly here. It gets the headlines and the reviews but 99.99% of the market isn’t this. In the real world margins are thin and people have their hands in their pockets as they are terrified by their next electric bill.

If you look at the public face certain brands put out and then you find out how much money they are pouring down the drain each month. It’s easy to be cool when you’re wasting your investors money. Then they stuff all their suppliers and take down good honest businesses. The administration statement of a certain company made chilling reading…

Asia is imploding, the big companies have slashed their huge forward orders and stiffed the suppliers. If giant doesn’t pay, their huge supply chain can’t pay their suppliers or staff. I’ve heard of lot’s going pop and huge job losses. I’ve been told two year order books have completely gone and they are now looking for anything to make on a week by week basis. Because things look rocky their banks have pulled credit lines and continue the spiral.

Distribution is packed full of stock but it’s mostly not what you want. They are going to be binning it out cheap to pay the bills but you can only build half a bike. All this is on financed money which has skyrocketed in cost along with inevitable huge increases in wages (not that you will be any better off). So yes realistically it’s going up in price after the fire sale.

China is probably going to be a covid nightmare for the next six months, so supply chains are going to fall apart some more. So your cheap parts will need very expensive parts to finish your build.

Basically everyone has said sales has nosedived and they are battening down the hatches. Some will do desperation sales for cash, others will hang on for prices to go up. I’m aiming for the latter like 2009 when everything virtually doubled in price.

Why put prices up. Well aluminium has skyrocketed, electric is insane, everything from tooling to coolant, card boxes etc all up. Anodising gone up so much it’s not worth selling small cheap stuff. I actually think retail prices right now are so low it’s not worth making bike parts in the U.K. but inflation on retail price always lags reality.

So am I worried. I am for the bike business but the cull of businesses will mean 2024 might be profitable if you get there. I’m going to be small and nimble to move where the work pays. I’ll make some bike stuff but don’t expect big things as people just won’t want to pay a realistic price for it right now. I’ve got plenty of medical parts to make but right now my bike clients are deadly silent. Grim times ahead.

Neil SuperstarComponents

That's an interesting read Neil, thanks.

Here's a silly question, do you think you would ever consider getting into 'soft goods' i.e. clothing and bags as an option? Or is that already a stuffed market?

It occured to me earlier when thinking about this thread that bike clothing may well see some small of uptick as people swear off new bikes and parts for a year or two.

@cookeaa - Velovixen have just folded. Suggests tough times in that market too? I guess the immediate competitor would be Alpkit so might be worth keeping an eye on their fortunes, though a new branch opening in Inverness suggests things might be fine for them at the moment.

i think so much comes down to personal circumstances when it comes to buying bikes and parts, which clearly is what is effecting the industry (outside of the supply chain stuff that Neil from Superstar just mentioned).

For example, i am after a change in bike and my friend is also in the same boat.

I just sold my gravel bike, which has cleared a credit card. This now allows me a bit more disposable income i can squirrel away and put towards a new frame. I say new.... it will be second hand. The first second hand bike/frame i have ever bought (i'm after a megatower V1 in large if anyone is getting rid!). I am thinking of selling my jump bike and turbo trainer to speed this process up.

I will then transfer over the parts from my current bike. should only need an airshaft to lengthen the fork and a BB.

My friend on the other hand, he has sold his Starling frame, which has taken a small chunk out of the £4500 Atherton frame he has on order. He has also bought some Manitou Mezzer's, had some Crank Bros Sythesis rims built up on 240 hubs, plus new tyres, chain etc.

Granted, he earns a bit more money than me, but has no kids and a wife that earns well. So has far far higher disposable income.

He also has used out LBD for the wheels etc, whereas i will be online shopping for the best price.

After typing all that, i'm not really sure what my point is, other than the amount two very similar people are willing to spend can be vastly different and where they spend it. My days of getting credit or finance for bikes are long gone. The latest Fox gear now stays on the shelves and i wear my stuff until its dead. And when i do buy new stuff, its more reasonably priced gear from the likes of Nukeproof etc.

Very interesting to get your insight Neil, you seem to suggest that Asian suppliers will bear the brunt of the slump (alongside independent bike shops?) - with bike brands attempting to insulate themselves?

And I guess we'll find out if any brands have really over-extended themselves and go bust / have to cut loads of jobs.

I wouldn't blame you for retreating to core products for bikes - consumables like brake pads and chainrings must be safe bets? Time to finally get those Shimano DM chainrings made, perhaps.

Definitely an interesting read Neil. I guess the real question is also what companies did with the cash from the bumper sales they all made during COVID. Im sure some will have given it away in bonuses, dividends etc in. Others may have been more prudent knowing the supply chain issues were well know. I fully accept the rise in energy prices was unexpected, but presumably raw material prices are based on supply and demand.

It would be an ideal time for the bike industry to be building cheap reliable commuting bikes rather than Kashima covered bling baubles - I've noticed a few new wobblers on my work commute. The cost of 2nd hand cars nowadays has no doubt forced a few people.

It would be an ideal time for the bike industry to be building cheap reliable commuting bikes rather than Kashima covered bling baubles

You can buy both now. Always have been able to. There's a huge range of bikes out there. Always has been.

Perhaps Singletrack could seek more opinions and analysis from bike industry figures on the situation and put a proper feature article together? Rather than the slightly redundant compilation of doom & gloom stories in the OP.

See my comments immediately above yours.

I'd even say the natural stuff being ridden is harder/techier than it was. Lines that never existed are created even in off-piste, but they're now created harder than before... so even taking into account the person was talking about non trailcenter trails, it's still wrong to think it's 'the same'

Sure, the same trails are still there... but they're not the only trails.

Cha****ng- the problem with asking the people in the industry is they aren’t going to say it’s terrible as it affects their company and job. All you will get is a typical PR piece saying it’s all going great because until they fold they aren’t going to say otherwise. Their own job relies on it… my point is I’m not reliant on bike parts anymore so can just tell the truth.

Clothes. Hell no! A warehouse full of the wrong colours and sizes which you have to redesign twice a year and Chuck what’s left in a skip. It’s only profitable in huge volumes at ultra low margins, the big boys use it as a loss leader for marketing.

The cash from bumper Covid sales went into paying the massively increased costs of goods and shipping. I doubt much if it is left

What you need to think is not turnover but profit. Bear in mind in a decade my electric unit price has gone up forty times, not 40% but forty times! Chainring metal plate up 2-3 times, ano doubling or more. So machining stuff is a lot more expensive yet prices have bearly gone up yet…. So do I make medical parts or bike parts when one pays 5 times more?

Things ain’t even got expensive yet so don’t fool yourself there’s going to be endless bargains.

Neil SuperstarComponents

Very interesting to get your insight Neil, you seem to suggest that Asian suppliers will bear the brunt of the slump (alongside independent bike shops?) – with bike brands attempting to insulate themselves?

Taiwan works on a bizarrely non-committal approach. Its basically a case of order, pay before you collect (or have a credit line). Very few contracts, not a lot of comeback for either party if one walks away.

It used to be that you couldn't really walk as you'd burn that bridge and getting up and running again would be hard, but now we're seeing companies doing it routinely and then going back to the self same supplier.

Very few companies are as open as Neil or us for sure, but you only need a couple to get a feel for it, and yep, it's brutal out there. Many, many of the companies you know (and possibly love) are leveraged to the hilt with debt to fuel their marketing/DH team/XC Team etc. aspirations, they're some of the biggest brands and I would say most at risk right now.

To answer @chakaping this story was to create a tracker of events through the year - it's not meant to have any analysis, more to build an overview as the year goes on. We've got three different industry/manufacturing stories in the works, but it takes time to interview and round up people from the industry across different time zones, etc. And that costs money, so I have to keep producing other stories in the mean time.

Another swing of the axe at Specialized

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/specialized-lays-off-8-of-its-employees-in-organization-adjustment.html

Halfords reporting a 20% drop in bike sales

https://road.cc/content/news/halfords-cycling-market-down-20-cent-year-year-298563

https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/warranty-denied-as-i-stripped-the-bike-down/

Just going to post a link to this thread. It might be interesting to see if any other big manufacturers stop honouring warranties.

VeloVixen returns!

https://stolengoat.com/2023/02/news-from-stolen-goat-hq/

Stolen Goat have snapped them up, and also Wildcat, makes of fine bikepacking kit.

High end mountain bikes used to be £6k and super bikes £10k. Super bikes are now £20k - £25k, so why wouldn't a top end mountain bike be £12-15k? Today a £6k bike would wipe the floor of a bike of the same price ten years ago, with or without a motor.

Only worth what someone is willing to pay for it

Sadly, it looks like the distributor Moore Large are the latest to add to the list. Probably not a household name to the consumer but well known in the industry and have been around a while.

Probably not a household name

Who can forget the wonderful range of Emmelle MTBs? 80s/90s classics... or not.

My first proper MTB was an Emmelle, it had 29" wheels, hybrid tyres and a two tone faded paint job. It was a bit shit. But weirdly way ahead of its time...

Hey Neil, any chance of an oval Shimano GRX chainring that isn't £80?

Mystic smeg:

If there’s a dip in bike sales, they will rocket in a couple of years.

“Next up, Neptune will move into Aries (from 2025 to 2039). Aries is a fire sign associated with passion, impulsivity, and determination, so this will be a very different manifestation of Neptune's energy. (Fun fact: Neptune hasn't occupied Aries since the mid-1800s.)”

Everyone will go crazy for sports.
Anticipate a lot of action at a&e.

Anyone else starting to yearn for adventure?

(For me, Neptune in Pisces was a 12 year long indulgence in coffee and carrot cake. Now, I feel like I’m being drawn to khatmandu, Bali, etc).

Who can forget the wonderful range of Emmelle MTBs?

My first ever new bike was a pink & grey smoke swirls Emmelle with fandangled new underbar shifters....

Edit: these STI's...

Woah!

Emmelle. M L. Moore & Large.

Really?

Onion please tell me you knew that!

(p.s. thanks for the wee waves yesterday and today)

I really, really didn't. Or I've simply forgotten (age doesn't come alone). I put it on a par with folk who don't know that the blue triangle in the Garmin branding points North...😂

Only if you are facing that way when you read the branding! 😉

A £3k bike with a RockShox 35 fork on is taking the piss and they know it.

Yeah but you're forgetting the expensive words that really bump up the price.
"Trail tune" "pro", "expert" "Race geometry" etc etc,they add hundreds to the base line.

Work as a mechanic - have some 15 years of experience on the job.

The bike I ride most is a 2008 Kona Unit 2-9 steel framed rigid bike. It has got XT hubs, cranks, Dura ace + Paul thumbmount shifter and a 1x9 transmission, Jones bar and Deore brakes from a few years ago. I have some 4 XT 9-speed shifters, brand new - I bought them from shops I have worked in when I found them unsold in storage. I have cassettes (9 and 10, plus a couple 11), chains and wear-out parts for everything at home. I never ride the "latest and greatest" - I ride what was best or second best 10 years ago.

That bike has more than 50 000 km on it, possibly close to 100k. But for the price of one 12-speed SRAM cassette, I ride for years on my 9 and 10-speed XTs...And it is still a great bike - its just like these gravel and bikepacking bikes are now. I have never understood the allure of the most expensive bling. I want stuff that works well and doesnt cost a fortune. I do have an ebike with 11-speed, but that too was a shop test bike that I got for peanuts - a 2018 model, well kept and maintained, on its second motor and third set of frame bearings. Got 4 identical serviced shocks for it - they are all Monarchs - because a Monarch from over 10 years ago uses the same service parts as a Monarch from 2 years back.

What really made me smile once was a customer ogling my Unit, asking how much it costs - in a shop with S-Works and what not bikes around it. I smugly said "its not for sale, its my personal bike and it is priceless compared to these other ones!"

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matt_outandabout
Full Member
Who can forget the wonderful range of Emmelle MTBs?

My first ever new bike was a pink & grey smoke swirls Emmelle with fandangled new underbar shifters….

Edit: these STI’s…

Mine was an Emmelle Cougar about 87 it ended up getting a crack in the head tube.

Sadly, it looks like the distributor Moore Large are the latest to add to the list. Probably not a household name to the consumer but well known in the industry and have been around a while.

Cadence active limited registered Feb 9th 2023 smells like Cullen skink no ?

@trail_rat
Isn't that a soup?

A fishy kinda soup.....

Cadence active limited registered Feb 9th 2023 smells like Cullen skink no ?

Yes. Four days before we all lost our jobs. It did not go unnoticed.

ProBikeKit the latest to add to the list.

ProBikeKit the latest to add to the list.

I’m glad I’ve read that. I was just in the process of buying some kit off them but for some reason my card kept getting declined.

Sounds lucky on my part.

Sucks for the people working at THG, but will anyone miss PBK?

CRC/Wiggle are equally corporate machines that happen to sell bike bits, but at least you can use them as a one stop shop, plus in-house brands etc. PBK were just the kind of shop that occasionally came up cheapest on google. And I never understood why they didn't let you buy other THD brands on the same order and combine postage. I might actually have used them frequently if I'd be able to buy protein etc at the same time.

will anyone miss PBK? PBK were just the kind of shop that occasionally came up cheapest on google.

True, but that counts for most online retailers these days. I haven't used them loads but still probably once or twice a year over the last (checks) 13 years.

Morvelo are also a part of THG - considering the recent woes of other smaller cycle clothes brands hopefully they won't be next for the chop.

Sucks for the people working at THG, but will anyone miss PBK?

I certainly will.
For the things I’ve bought off them, including a couple of AXS Reverbs, they’ve been a considerable amount cheaper than other places and the service has been faultless.

probikekit is still trading, I assume running down stock based on the link above? I ordered from them earlier in the week and it has been shipped.

I remember when my boss started selling emmelles, "if anyone asks, they’re french"