And here we are, we’ve reached the final weekend, the decisive stage, a place where many thought we wouldn’t reach.

Somewhat controversially, i bloody love a TT. Partly as I’m a kit geek and you always get some new kit on Tour TT day, partly as I like it’s purity and partly as without it the GC is not general at all, it becomes a best climber jersey.

Anyway, what’s in store? Cyclingstage has the answers

Saturday 19 September – La Planche des Belles Filles is the tedious last uphill test on the Tour de France. The Vosges mountain is 5.9 kilometres long and slopes at 8.5%. The climb will be even harder than usual, as it serves as the finish climb of a 36.2 kilometres ITT.

La Planche des Belles Filles was first included in the Tour de France of 2012. Almost overnight it has become a feared and revered climb after its inclusions in the editions of 2014, 2017 and 2019. Last year, the route was pepped up by an unpaved last kilometre, but that section will be skipped.

Still, La Planche des Belles Filles is a horror climb for most riders. The uphill drags on for 5.9 kilometres at 8.5% before the steepest stretch at 20% appears just before the line.

The race opens with approximately 15 kilometres on virtually valley roads. Then the route begins to incline – at shallow gradients, but given the finale this is an interesting section. Save energy or keep on pushing? The riders crest the Col de la Chevestraye at kilometre 25 before a descent of almost 3 kilometres runs onto the last climb of the 2020 Tour de France.

The intermediate time checks are located at kilometre 14.4 and at kilometre 30.3, which is at the base of La Planche des Belles Filles.

The first rider starts at 13.00 and the GC leader is expected to finish around 18.10 – both are local times (CEST).

Two FAQs:

Bike changes are permitted but there is no dedicated zone for mechanics to wait in, instead any change must be done via the team car and the commissaires will be watching for pushes longer than five seconds. It can make sense to change bikes, to ditch the TT bike with a heavier frame, heavier wheels, heavier bars but it’s also a bad look for bike sponsors, it’s broadcasting their TT bikes are slow uphill. It’s down to rider taste as well, when Tom Dumoulin won the TT Worlds in Bergen he didn’t swap bikes for the climb to Fløyen but plenty of others did and are likely to do it today, it’s a longer climb than Fløyen

KoM: Carapaz leads the mountains competition with 74 points, ahead of Pogačar (72 points) and Roglič (67 points). The final climb is timed and the fastest six riders get 10-8-6-4-2-1 points respectively so Carapaz is likely to use the first 30km today as an extended warm-up to save himself for his fastest possible time up the climb. Can he do it? Probably, he’s excellent at a 20 minute effort but there’s a matrix of outcomes. If there’s a tie on points then Carapaz wins as he’s won two HC category climbs, the Madeleine and the Glières, to Pogačar’s Grand Colombier.

You can find the riders start times here.

The contenders, INRNG will help with this.

Who are the TT specialists who can cope with the final climb who have been sitting quiet in the final week to save themselves for today? Who indeed, there aren’t many lurking in the field. Nelson Oliveira (Movistar) and Tejay van Garderen (EF Pro Cycling) don’t win TTs very often, TvG’s colleague Dani Martinez is the Colombian champ. Rémi Cavagna (Deceuninck-Quickstep) must be tired from his raid yesterday although he says he attacked because he’s feeling good but team mate Kasper Asgreen must still be the fresher pick and he climbs better. Bora-Hansgrohe have two good outsiders in Lennard Kämna and Pascal Ackermann. Thomas De Gendt (Lotto-Soudal) and Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Merida) could set fast times too but hard to see them winning. Look out for Harold Tejada (Astana), not to win but the 23 year old neo-pro is good in the time trials too.

Among the GC contenders Primož Roglič is the best pick, he won a string of time trials last year and the course suits with the mix of fast roads and climbing. He should pull ahead of Tadej Pogačar on the flat, with the UAE Emirates rider still likely to be well in the top-10 today. Yes Pogačar won the Slovenian title in June but that was all uphill. Jumbo-Visma have other options, Tom Dumoulin would be an obvious pick but has folded in to help Roglič as his form’s not so strong but this is his kind of stage, while Wout van Aert has to be a contender as well, look to see if he can set the fastest time to the second checkpoint and how much he can hold on up the climb.

Among the other GC contenders Richie Porte will really like this stage and is an outsider for the stage win and he’s got the carrot of the podium if he can reclaim 99 seconds on Miguel Angel Lopez, that’s a tough ask at almost 3 seconds per kilometre. The Colombian can blow hot and cold in the time trials but has improved in the last two years, is in form and thrives in the final week of a grand tour.

And as ever, over to cyclingTips for the pics, lots of them quintessentially French.

I’m going for Carpaz to win the stage, but very interested in the bike swaps.  The race at the top should be fascinating…

I’m OK with swapping bikes but not with swapping TYPE of bike. That’s not a true TT at all.

I think this is a bit of a gimmick stage; it feels like they wanted to include Planche but couldn’t find a way to also include TTs.

Personally I’d have mandated one type of bike for the entire stage, that could have been quite interesting tactically. Or I’d have missed out the insane climb and found a different route!

I used to dislike the bike change thing in hilly time trials but it’s impossible to get away from the fact that equipment choice is crucial for success in TTs. Now I see it as a more visible/amplified version of getting the gears/wheels/handlebars right.

Is there a time cutoff in the TT; how much of a warm up can the climbers do in the first 30km (how much time can they lose vs claim back in the climb) to give it beans in the KoM race in a race in a race.

A very conservative 50kph for 30km means 36 mins to the foot of the climb, then 6km at say 24kph for the climb is another 15 mins. 51 mins. Cut off would be therefore 60-65ish (+20-25%)

If the specialists can hammer out the climb at 30kph (25% faster which I doubt against a non specialist climber but TTer going for it) they save 3 mins on the climb and do it in 12, so they have 48 mins to the base = 37.5kph.

I guess that’s a warmup / recovery pace for this lot particularly if they do it on a TT bike!!

That last image makes me wonder…how many black riders are there in the Tour, and why are they so under-represented?

A ‘one type of bike only’ rule would be the best compromise and would lead to all sorts of variations and conjecture like F1 ‘ what type of tyre compound’ for these conditions

But would we then have lots of “emergency” and fake mechanical bike swaps at the start of the climb to a much more climber orientated bike

As it is, it’ll be like a transition zone at a triathlon

Is there a time cutoff in the TT;

There is, but a bit of googling about can’t tell me what it is. It’s one of the reasons why even people with no interest in the stage will ride TT bikes as it lets them get around in time for less effort.

EDIT: it’s best time + 25%.

how many black riders are there in the Tour

One black rider in the tour. A good interview with Reza here that focuses more on racism than under-representation per se, but they’re both facets of the same problem.

https://www.eurosport.co.uk/cycling/tour-de-france/2020/look-at-your-belly-button-less-kevin-reza-calls-on-white-riders-to-address-racism-in-cycling_vid1354277/video.shtml

Folk seem to think Carapaz will coast to the hill and then smash it for the KoM points

Honestly, I’m hoping anyone but Roglic at the moment
I’ve genuinely no idea what WvA might do but if he’s fresh-ish it might be a goer

but it’s also a bad look for bike sponsors, it’s broadcasting their TT bikes are slow uphill.

This is interesting but surely anyone considering buying a TT bike knows they climb like ****? Or maybe the ‘pinkbike dentists’ think that buying a TT bike and wearing a teardrop helmet will turn them into a cycling badass and can bulldoze mountains out of the way

Those black legs are the only black legs in the peloton this year I think. Not sure why either. I guess black cyclists must be very underrepresented at grass roots level all over the world but again I can’t see why they would be these days.

So which team is going to draft in an assistant sprinter who can push the rider up to over 20mph in 4.9 seconds?
I wonder how many seconds that’d save.

Not yesterday’s stage (and may have bindun) but all the same, this is crucial TdF viewing

De hele video met nog VEEL MEER wheelies kan je hier zien! https://t.co/Fdxnl9A1KS

— Bas Tietema (@BasTietema) September 18, 2020

Some sort of award for that Naesen effort, surely ?

I read an article a few years ago about why there are so few black riders in the sport. Obviously it’s a multifaceted issue with no one specific cause. However the article suggested that a lack of bikes over there was the main problem!! I think (I’m really struggling to remember specifics) it focussed a little on a guy riding for the Rwanda national team…..they had very little that we’d recognise as ‘infrastructure’ and I think that it suggested that Rwanda was one of the most expensive places in the world to ship freight, making it incredibly difficult to get any decent kit out there.

it focussed a little on a guy riding for the Rwanda national team…..they had very little that we’d recognise as ‘infrastructure’

Yeah, I think I saw the same article (or if not, one very similar) that highlighted that in rural areas, the roads were so shit that anything recognisable as “road riding / racing” simply couldn’t happen and the only bikes around were heavy old beaters that were super hard wearing while in towns and cities, the traffic was so unbearable that road riding simply wasn’t practical – again it was old beater bikes weaving through standing traffic.

Can’t remember the specifics of it but in South Africa, someone said that if they wanted to ride outside their gated community, they needed armed guards following them in a 4×4. 😲

^ That’d be my assumption – if you’re not wealthy, are athletically gifted and live in africa (I note that Monsieur Reza is French, I believe born there) it must be way chaeper to train and also easier to rise to prominence within an established “talent system” than get noticed and promoted within a sport that your nation largely doesn’t give a shit about

… plus, of course, the same potential for conscious and unconscious bias against you that exists in most areas even once you turn pro

All about the bikes today. It would be a brave rider who rides up those switches on a TT bike. It would be a foolish or Very well set up rider who rides the approach on a road bike.

I have a road bike (propel) set up for TT. But I’d be swapping bikes today.

The Michelson Scott ds was interviewed mid stage on ITV a few days ago and said that the good TTers like Roglic, Pogacar etc would stick on the TT bike whereas the likes of Yates would swap

If I had to choose The One, I’d pick a climbing bike with aerobars and all the clothing and helmet aeroz I could find. I’d also go light front wheel and disk on the back (no handling issues for a disk). There will have been a lot of sums about time to stop and change vs. Time lost on aero up the hill vs. time lost without aero on the flat. They will also have practiced bike swaps. A bit like a cross race or F1 pit stop. I love a TT.

what about a lightweight road bike but with clip on aeros – how would the weight penalty (knowing that weight is rarely an issue on these bikes anyway) be countered by the supported more aero position compared to on the drops or ‘puppy paws’?

Cavagna seemed ok on the TT bike !!

Brad recons out the saddle on a tt bike is a no no, might as well ride a road bike, and Roglic will remain seated. Lets see on the that final 20% section Brad.

Does anyone else find Brad a miserable, drain on any joy. I have the GCN app but would rather watch ITV4 with ads than listen to him.

How slow can Carapaz ride the flat section and not get eliminated before blasting the climb? 😉 it’s basically a 20km warm up for a full max effort.

WVT remains seated on his road bike on 20% gradient!!!!

Good job I’ve got him in my team otherwise Tireds team would be beating me 😜😜😜😜

Bardet, Pinot and Viviani were not great picks….

Pogacar needs new shorts those have gone see thru’

Hotting up in all aspects, GC, mountain and TT

How slow can Carapaz ride the flat section and not get eliminated before blasting the climb? 😉 it’s basically a 20km warm up for a full max effort.

I tried to estimate that earlier but got my guesstimates of time a bit off. The answer is ‘quite slow’ – for a pro on a top TT bike in a skin suit at least, I’d probably be quite happy with it 😉

Hotting up in all aspects, GC, mountain and TT

Yep, this will go down to the wire! Can see Roglic and Pogacar ending up mere seconds apart going into Paris tomorrow…

25s on classement virtuel now!

Porte on the virtual podium – go on son!

This is within the time lost by Pogacar in the cross winds…..Roglic might still win this, and in the end it’s total time that counts, but for the winds and the benefit of the strength of JV, Pogacar is probably the best rider this year.

Pogacar looking better here. Going to the wire!

That was a very long five seconds…

BLIMEY –  the commissaire’s pushing stopwatch will be all twitchy!! Imagine losing the tour because your mechanic’s hand stuck to your sweaty arse for slightly too long

Roglic is looking wrecked. If he’s getting time checks he’ll be panicking now which will only add to it.

Wonder what KOM times will be, I think Carapaz is in provisional 5th at the moment.

This is getting a bit tense!

He’s got this here hadn’t he!

I didn’t predict this at all

10s!! I wonder if Pog’s going to crack or can he sustain this level