Tory Leadership Contest

Effectively the party has split. Reform is a splinter group.

Au contraire. The sane lot were evicted from the party by Johnson after his victory in 2019. He felt threatened by anyone with an IQ not in single figures and made loyalty to the inherently stupid Brexit project the only consideration for high office. Hence the present absolutely woeful standard of candidates.

The fact that they’ve already reached the conclusion that they lost the election because they weren’t right wing enough just says it all. They think that their mission is to become Reform. Every single candidate during this campaign will perpetually bang on about immigration, trans people, immigration, withdrawing from the ECHR, immigration, immigration, gender nuetral dogs, immigration, what bastards the EU are, and immigration.

They just can’t help themselves. Its going to be hilarious 😀

One rule for Tory leadership contests is that the favourite almost never wins. Boris was the exception. Not do previous contestants- Sunak and Howard won uncontested. Bad Enoch is the favourite and I don’t she’ll win.

I was just gonna say similar.

I think we’re back in “won’t be the favourite” territory now, with the caveat that they might still pick someone shit – just because the members are so detached from reality.

Depends what the leanings of the remaining Tory MPs are (I dunno) and how and when the members are going to get a say (dunno that either).

It’s frankly hilarious that sunak doesn’t look that bad an option right now

The sane lot were evicted from the party by Johnson after his victory in 2019. He felt threatened by anyone with an IQ not in single figures and made loyalty to the inherently stupid Brexit project the only consideration for high office. Hence the present absolutely woeful standard of candidates.

100%. Anyone intelligent that also has scruples was automatically barred from supporting Brexit by its very nature. Add in the requirement that Johnson had to seek a harder exit than necessary to justify his Get Brexit Done bullshit and here we are. Politically (and acutely in the case of the Tories) Brexit was the greatest reverse talent show in history.

Much of the Culture War crap that followed (the isolation of vulnerable people during covid facilitated it) stems from the Tories scrabbling around trying to explain why everyone isn’t on £75k per year and Mr & Mrs Sharma two doors down haven’t been deported yet. The sight of a once-serious political party hitching its wagon to a series of ever more outlandish lies is pitiful. It also leaves them vulnerable to people peddling the same prejudices and lies – just more extreme.

But the Tories chose this route. There were multiple opportunities to do the right thing, but they got high on populism and now they’ve lost the high and only have the addiction.

**** ’em.

rats in a sack.  the briefings are happening

Kemi Badenoch, the frontrunner to be the next Conservative party leader, has been accused of creating an intimidating atmosphere in the government department she used to run, with some colleagues describing it as toxic, the Guardian can reveal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/30/kemi-badenoch-accused-of-bullying-and-traumatising-staff

Ordinarily you might say that after a defeat that heavy that it’s not a leadership contest you would want to win, but Starmer’s success with Labour challenges that to an extent, although I can’t see Labour throwing it all away in a single Parliament (again, that is what we thought post 2019, so anything is possible).  The Tories should stay in the centre ground but they will probably tack further right.

The Tories have nowhere to go. Labour were able to move to be a centre party to win the election. Reform turned up and took enough far-right fantasists to royally screw the Tories.

I fully expect the Tories to veer even further to the right. Either to win back their bigots from Reform or to merge with them. I wish them all the worst in their endeavours.

I recon a rerun of “celebrity death match” is called for

“The Tories should stay in the centre ground but they will probably tack further right.”

Hmmm not so sure. They may well do of course but they know as well as we do that the far right racist pensioner vote is a dying breed and it wasn’t nearly enough to work this time around already. Its been proven time and time again that when the UK feels like time for a change it wants the same thing but with a different name. Centre rightish with a bit of a ‘we will look after the already well off because they have earned it unlike those workshy poor’ etc. I mean just look at the recent so called Labour incumbents…

At the end of the day we ain’t revolutionaries like the French swinging from monarchy to socialist to fascist and we aren’t as mad and divided on religious grounds like the US. We are Brits and we like things as they should be which is a sensible government that looks after the slightly selfish and introverted hard working British people which obviously means the lucky and most Southerners.

I’m not saying Badenoch won’t win btw – she strikes me as an adept chameleon that can change her spots overnight as she clearly has no actual principals. Patel, I’m not so sure about = she has more backstory which may be harder to shed.

but Starmer’s success with Labour challenges that to an extent

I am not sure thats true.  If they regain the reform vote then they would have a popular majority although possibly not a electoral one.

Kemi Badenoch, the frontrunner to be the next Conservative party leader, has been accused of creating an intimidating atmosphere in the government department she used to run, with some colleagues describing it as toxic

Surprised, moi? <Miss Piggy Voice>

Hmmm not so sure. They may well do of course but they know as well as we do that the far right racist pensioner vote is a dying breed

we have an ageing population…

and it wasn’t nearly enough to work this time around already.

but the easy mistake to make is to think the way to win back reform voters is to be more like reform, it’s actually to be less like the post Cameron tories!

Its been proven time and time again that when the UK feels like time for a change it wants the same thing but with a different name. Centre rightish with a bit of a ‘we will look after the already well off because they have earned it unlike those workshy poor’ etc. I mean just look at the recent so called Labour incumbents…

yes but Labour got there from Milliband by first going via a more extreme stereotype of “core Labour” which appealed to the membership but no the voters.

At the end of the day we ain’t revolutionaries like the French swinging from monarchy to socialist to fascist and we aren’t as mad and divided on religious grounds like the US. We are Brits and we like things as they should be which is a sensible government that looks after the slightly selfish and introverted hard working British people which obviously means the lucky and most Southerners.

even on election night some commentators were saying the losers would probably head more towards their extremes and that was a mistake.  Expect the snp may up the noise on Indy.

We have an ageing population true but the happy set of circumstances and conditions that turned a certain generation into the ‘haves’ , house prices far outstripping inflation, no university debt and defined benefit pensions have not been repeated. This means future generations growing older will not in my opinion in general have the same goals and outlook as the current batch over 60s

“yes but Labour got there from Milliband by first going via a more extreme stereotype of “core Labour” which appealed to the membership but no the voters.”

I don’t understand your point, how does this differ from me saying the UK voter doesn’t like extremes?

And commentators (including and especially me!) can be very wrong.

“yes but Labour got there from Milliband by first going via a more extreme stereotype of “core Labour” which appealed to the membership but not the voters.”

I don’t understand your point, how does this differ from me saying the UK voter doesn’t like extremes?

I think you’re both making the same point. This is a good read by Ian Dunt (always worth reading), making the point that the party membership selecting the leader, instead of MP’s, gave the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (who as repellent to the wider electorate) and the Tory membership gave us Liz Truss as PM. The membership of parties is in no way representative of the general voter.

The truth that dare not speak its name

I can honestly see this Tory Leadership election giving us the leader of HM opposition Robert Jenrick. Badanoch has been nailed on favourite at 2/1 for about 18 months now, but as has already been pointed out, the Tories never end up with the favourite when it goes to the membership. Its going to be the middle-aged, chinless, pin-striped white bloke every time