This GE betting thing

It just shows the level of greed and contempt they have, even for small amounts of money. Craig Williams is reported to have placed £100 at 5:1 odds. So he stands to gain £500. Is it really worth the risk over £500?

I used to work in gambling in a job where I’d regularly be invited for days out in boxes with MPs etc. One time I even had to share a table with Andrew Bridgen *shudders*. The venn diagram of MPs and gamblers probably has quite a lot of cross over. Seems to be the nature of the beast.

Misconduct in a public office, as per the arrest of the police officer? .MPs are public servants for this law.

Craig Williams is an MP (well, was at the time of the bet being placed) but the Bristol candidate wasn’t. I don’t remember her day job but it’s not clear that she holds public office.

I also agree that the cheating offence is not a slam dunk (even if the facts were proved). Analogies with other naughty behaviour like insider trading aren’t really legally helpful even if they help us disapprove of their (admitted yet?) betting.

Everybody needs to calm down – there’s a lot of time before this train arrives at the station and there’s plenty of scope to change, add, drop charges.

What I dint get is that Craig Williams has admitted to it

Yet Sunak says he wants to wait for the results of the investigation.

Legal /moral issues aside, from a practical point of view Sunak should just have sacked them straight away, rather than be seen to dither then have to sack them later anyway

grimep  Free Member
Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law.
Naturally this story is being milked to the maximum by those sympathetic to the hammer & sickle brigade

Since his sacking from GBeebies it’s good to see that Dan Wootton is widening his spread on social media.

For a couple of the backbench MPs i think it will be quite hard to prove they knew definitively – as per the Newsnight reporter who stated the night before the announcement there was a lot of gossip that 4th July was going to be the date.  However …..the Campaigns manager was almost certainly privy to that sort of information ahead of the rest of us and needs depositing into the sewer he came from.

What I dint get is that Craig Williams has admitted to it

Yet Sunak says he wants to wait for the results of the investigation.

Kind of, kind of not. He said it was a huge error of judgement (to place a bet on the GE date) but has stopped short of saying that the error was because he knew when the date would be.

It could genuinely have been a lucky guess and he genuinely didn’t know (even then as a Tory MP I’d query if being more privy to the mood music is enough to count as insider info) – and the error is to even have opened himself up to even a lucky guess allegation.

The fact he was subsequently asked whether he knew and answered that he wasn’t commenting further though. That smells of guilty, but not admitting it in case it turns out it can’t be proved. I’ve defended innocent until plenty of times, and will do so again here – but it don’t look great, TBH.

If he is genuinely innocent, why not say ‘I genuinely had no information, it was just a lucky punt, but in hindsight a stupid thing to do for exactly the reasons that have turned out and I’m deeply sorry’

[Oh, and BTW – whether legally guilty, guilty but impossible to prove, or innocent; the lack of judgement alone is enough stupidity that withdrawal of the whip should immediately be the sanction. There’s plenty you can say or do that it is legally allowed, but which makes you unfit to be an MP]

Legal /moral issues aside, from a practical point of view Sunak should just have sacked them straight away, rather than be seen to dither then have to sack them later anyway

Given the probable time for the investigation I doubt he will be the one sacking them.

If williams wins his seat there will be a recall and a by-election pretty soon into the new parliament

I wonder if this is why Sunak hasnt sacked them yet?

"there were rumours swirling round Westminster yesterday that theres a cabinet minister might have done this"

Iain Dale on rumours that a cabinet minister bet on the date of the general election just before it was called #GMB pic.twitter.com/ZPTw4qLgNt

— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) June 21, 2024

Because when it emerges Shapps’ fool proof plan of laying several bets under his many aliases has been rumbled, he will have to sack a cabinet member too & if they can keep a lid on this for 2 weeks (a big ask) , whereas after the GE if they even have a seat Im not sure any will care.

-Although recall petition and by-election just after the GE would be hilarious, Sunak wont be leader

Rather perversely,  I’m hoping Rishi successfully defends his seat and therefore can’t simply walk away on 5th July.

He can still quit and do the “I’m stepping down as an MP to avoid being a distraction” line.

What I dint get is that Craig Williams has admitted to it

Yet Sunak says he wants to wait for the results of the investigation

I think Williams has admitted the bet and said it was a bad idea. Sunak presumably would want to say he wants to hear whether there will be any charges etc

I think Williams has admitted the bet and said it was a bad idea. Sunak presumably would want to say he wants to hear whether there will be any charges etc

Thats Johnson levels of mismanaging a crisis

Ill bet 😉  that there will be more revelations in the Sunday papers & Sunak will look even weaker

Sunak wont deny a cabinet member placed a bet…

Asked by LBC if he is "confident that none of your cabinet members have also placed a bet" on the date of the general election, Rishi Sunak declines to answer. pic.twitter.com/hTwmX0HO3o

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) June 21, 2024

and gambling commission have confirmed they are looking at criminal offences

sorry grimep!

Currently the commission is investigating the possibility of offences concerning the date of the election. This is an ongoing investigation, and the commission cannot provide any further details at this time.

If someone uses confidential information in order to gain an unfair advantage when betting, this may constitute an offence of cheating under Section 42 of the Gambling Act, which is a criminal offence.

I know nothing about this subject, so can someone explain what’s the justification behind Section 42 of the Gambling Act? It’s perfectly fine when the public are losing money when the odds aren’t in their favour, but it’s illegal and immoral when punters finally manage to gain an advantage?

I presume lobbying by gambling companies brought in this law?

It’s the same principle as insider share dealing. The market (stock exchange or gaming) works on the basis of open transparent information, coupled with a chance element for likelihood of reward. Without that open information the market cannot function freely. That bookmakers make profits is a reflection of the skill they have in setting odds. Doing additional research is valid (witness the hole in one betting win a few years ago – the bookmakers were privy to the same information had they looked), but knowing something by nature of privileged position is not;

You have insider information from your partner who works for Company X that it is about to buy Company Y, and the premium is 90%, so buy shares in Y and double your investment! Needless to say the share sales data is tested to see how many people bought shares in Y in the lead up to the announcement, just as the FT published the spike in money laid against a July 4th election date. People are not subtle. In fact they tend to be stupid.

A better solution to this stupidity  is simply not to trade based on the PERCEPTION of how it were to look. I don’t gamble and I don’t trade shares (especially not in biopharma). I’m subject to strict rules and policies, but have my own internal compass that is stricter still.

I used to do contract work for a large betting organization… The amount of customer profiling they do is eye opening… Bookies are not in the businesses of losing money.

Such a specific bet by several people will absolutely set alarm bells ringing just from the algorithms alone… Then when a human at the betting company looks at the bet, and who is making the bets, and realized they are all tories betting about a tory controlled event… Well the rest is in the newspapers!

Fruitless like the FCA and incompetent though as it’s in the public limelight , maybe just maybe some charges will be brought upon him.

what’s the justification behind Section 42 of the Gambling Act? It’s perfectly fine when the public are losing money when the odds aren’t in their favour, but it’s illegal and immoral when punters finally manage to gain an advantage?

It applies to gambling operators too. It’s not about the odds being bad or good, it’s about the bet being unfair. You play roulette, you accept the odds being offered. You play roulette but the wheel has been altered to make the ball land on 0 more often, and you’re being cheated.