This GE betting thing

While I lap up the carnage that this is raising in the Tory party I do have one question: how were they caught?

Do betting companies just forward a list of suspicious bets and the people making them to the police?

Yup

Yup

/thread

There’s some details and stats on the election thread

just shows the tories will do anything to make a quick buck.

Data analysis brought up a suspicious uplift in quantity & value of bets placed the day before the election was announced 🤔

The bookies aren’t daft. As soon as they spot suspicious betting patterns, they’re straight on it

They particularly keep more of an eye on any bet that is susceptible to someone having had inside information, so a huge spike like this would have set alarm bells ringing straight away.

Youd have to be pretty bloody stupid to whack £850 quid on some random date and not expect that to flag up somewhere.

Great innit, the tories reminding the public what a real shower of shit they are whilst in full campaign mode.

Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law.
Naturally this story is being milked to the maximum by those sympathetic to the hammer & sickle brigade

Section 42: Cheating
163.This section creates a criminal offence for cheating at gambling, and repeals the old offence of cheating in section 17 of the Gaming Act 1845 (c.109). The word “cheating” is not defined but has its normal, everyday meaning. The offence is committed by both cheating directly or by doing something for the purpose of assisting or enabling another person to cheat. A person who does something inadvertently which enables another person to cheat, will not, therefore, commit an offence.

164.Subsection (2) provides that a person will commit the offence irrespective of whether he actually wins anything as a result of the cheating, or whether the cheating has the effect of improving the cheat’s chances of winning. This means that an inept cheat, or one who cheats for another person’s benefit, will still commit an offence. Subsection (3) provides that, in particular, cheating may include actions that involve actual or attempted deception or interference with the processes involved in the conduct of gambling, or with any other game, race or other event or process to which gambling relates. Events can be either real or virtual. Subsection (3) does not provide an exhaustive definition of cheating. It is made expressly without prejudice to the general meaning of cheating established in subsection (1).

165.Subsections (4) and (5) provide for penalties that may be imposed upon conviction of the offence. Unlike other offences created under the Act, this offence is capable of being tried either summarily or on indictment. On summary conviction the penalty is a maximum term or imprisonment of 51 weeks (or 6 months in Scotland), and/or a fine up to level 5 on the standard scale. On conviction on indictment the maximum penalty is imprisonment for a term not exceeding two years, an unlimited fine, or both.

Apparently the names revealed so far are just the tip of the iceberg and they were all at it.

Inside CCHQ:
“How many of you put a bet on the election date? Be honest.” pic.twitter.com/SN3zCyaVrc

— Dave Turner (@mrdaveturner) June 20, 2024

Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law.

Hmm….

The UKGC has not confirmed whether it is investigating these specific cases, although it has issued guidance on rules for using confidential information to gain an advantage when betting.

“If someone uses confidential information in order to gain an unfair advantage when betting, this may constitute an offence of cheating under Section 42 of the Gambling Act, which is a criminal offence,”

edit to add the link https://igamingbusiness.com/legal-compliance/ukgc-confirms-investigation-into-several-potential-election-betting-offences/

Cheating is against the law, by your own paste. The issue is whether having insider information on the date of the election, and then using that information to win a bet, is cheating. How does that sound to you?

You’re not a very good troll, and an even worse lawyer.

Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law.

Naturally this story is being milked to the maximum by those sympathetic to the hammer & sickle brigade

Looks like the offence of cheating to me, from the legislation you posted

the hammer & sickle brigade

The boilermakers and thatchers union?

Even if it wasn’t breaking any laws, (which it is) it says a lot that they can’t even call an election without being on the take.

I need help; which should I show more outrage over, this or stonehenge painted orange?

One of them’s even admitted it. OK, has said ‘it was a huge error of judgement’ and refused to say whether they had any prior knowledge. There is no reasonable situation in which you would refuse to answer that in the event you didn’t.

On Newsnight just now – Tory fodder can’t say whether it was wrong because they don’t have a gambling account so don’t know how it works.

@sirromj – You could do both simultaneously and become a simmering mass of barely constrained anger

multitasking, innit?

More a general lack of surprise than outrage. It’s nice they’re being found out, shame it wasn’t Brick Tops Bookies.

The boilermakers and thatchers union?

I didn’t think that Thatcher liked unions.

Nobody is better at quickly identifying unusual trends and patterns than the gambling industry.

It just shows the level of greed and contempt they have, even for small amounts of money. Craig Williams is reported to have placed £100 at 5:1 odds. So he stands to gain £500. Is it really worth the risk over £500?

You’re not a very good troll, and an even worse lawyer.

TBF the number of successful prosecutions does seem to be basically zero. Which is probably why the only arrest so far has been the cop under a different law.

Sadly I reckon they would stand a good chance of getting away with it even if morally it is wrong (ok given how immoral the gambling firms I am somewhat flexible about them being screwed over in return but I am not a fan of the enemy of my enemy is my friend so screw them both). After all they aint actually gambling are they?

Data analysis brought up a suspicious uplift in quantity & value of bets placed the day before the election was announced

This doesnt seem to have been caught though. One bookies does seem to have cross referenced the politically exposed people against the betting on the election and after finding a match and doing a quick google to find out they were not only a tory but closely linked to Sunak went hmmmmm.

All of the others came out of the gambling commission also going hmmm and asking the bookies to send them a list of all people who made a “bet” on the july election within a specific time range. They then sent it to the tories and, I assume, the met and asked “anyone you know?”

Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law

Misconduct in a public office, as per the arrest of the police officer? .MPs are public servants for this law.

More a general lack of surprise than outrage.

Yeah I think that’s it. Numb.

TBF the number of successful prosecutions does seem to be basically zero.

is not the same as

Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law.

It’s pretty clearly contrary to the law, whether or not it is actually prosecuted (for whatever reason)

You’re not a very good troll, and an even worse lawyer

I imagine Trump is thinking “who is that guy?…….we need him”

I don’t understand why it is treated as misconduct in a public office when it is a police officer but just a bit naughty when it is a Member of Parliament?  The first guy was the Prime Minister’s parliamentary secretary?

If this is true and a cabinet member placed a bet….

All bets are off

https://x.com/Eyeswideopen69/status/1803860950908572170?t=oTcDuZ3nq6YWkIit0ruhUA&s=19

In reality these cheating scum are more likely to have been milking more dodgy  £££ out of the expenses scheme every week for the past 14 years, than they would make from the bet.

But it just illustrates how much they are just in it for themselves and untrustworthy they are.    I’d really not trust them to even empty the bags of dogs eggs out of the wheelie bin every fortnight.

I need help; which should I show more outrage over, this or stonehenge painted orange?

Almost certainly this. But I’m sure some old Tory duffer will bring up Rayner’s house again soon, there’s no equivalence quite like false equivalence eh.

I do wonder, if it were possible, would Lil’ Rishi bump the election forward by another week, just so this whole thing could be over that bit sooner and he could piss off back to California where he was happier.

I almost feel sorry for him sometimes, but then I remember that they’re a bunch of grasping, vernal snakes, and he’s their mascot and my pity evaporates…

I don’t understand why it is treated as misconduct in a public office when it is a police officer but just a bit naughty when it is a Member of Parliament?  The first guy was the Prime Minister’s parliamentary secretary?

I think there is a distinction.  That doesn’t mean the cop hasn’t broken the gambling regs, or that the MP may not have committed misconduct in public office but I think the cop is charged with Misconduct in Public Office because as a close protection officer he inevitably had access to / awareness of / insight into what was happening at the top of government.  There is a very strong expectation that whatever knowledge he gains that way is strictly confidential.  If he’d sold it to the papers, posted it on Twitter etc it would still be misconduct in public office – whereas if the PM’s PPS had leaked it – he’d probably not be guilty of misconduct.

it is important for ministers to be able to trust their CPOs to have the utmost discretion, and undermining that risks ministers operating away from their CPOs and therefore puts them in danger.  Equally if CPOs are acknowledged to see/remember “things” then perhaps they could be witnesses at inquiries… and that could be awkward.

I do wonder, if it were possible, would Lil’ Rishi bump the election forward by another week, just so this whole thing could be over that bit sooner and he could piss off back to California where he was happier.

I have another theory… the 1922 committee were threatening that there were nearly 50 letters, he knew that no matter what happened they would lose, so he decided to take the pricks down with him.  In benevolent moments I actually wonder if it’s a massive act of patriotism –  has he realised that the tories aren’t fit to govern and taken it on himself to make sure they don’t!

there’s even a bit of me who has wondered if he’s said (jokingly of course 😉 to the CPO – if I were you I’d go down to Ladbrokes and stick a days wages on 4th July!

What I find interesting is that the ‘tell’ for the gambling industry wasn’t that sum huge but stunningly accurate bet was placed, but that a lot of modest but accurate bets were placed all at the same time.

That means that either it was a coordinated effort of some sort – that the handfui of people who were in the know about the election (which lets face it, wasn’t the Tory party more broadly or even most of the cabinet) discussed the idea of putting a bet on  – and did so.

Or it means that a surprisingly large proportion of the people who had that inside information came to the conclusion independently that they should put a bet on.

If they discussed and coordinated it – they’re all idiots as the results of the actions are there for us all to see. If they didn’t, it’s just happenstance that they all took the same action then that just means they’re all idiots. And the results of the actions are there for us all to see because they’re too stupid to realise that the idiots around them would do the same thing.

Allegedly…

Excl: Here’s what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.<br><br>This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.<br><br>There’s a flood of bets that day – before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street. pic.twitter.com/AfKyzAbDBQ
— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) June 20, 2024

Insider political betting doesn’t appear to be contrary to any law.
Naturally this story is being milked to the maximum by those sympathetic to the hammer & sickle brigade

And you’re what, a touch the forelock kinda guy to the man in the Big House…

If you admire someone cheating then can we guess you voted for Johnson in 2019?

The answer to the OP is Bookies aren’t stupid, they know their business.

Craig Williams is reported to have placed £100 at 5:1 odds. So he stands to gain £500. Is it really worth the risk over £500?

This is the really stupid/funny thing. If it was in the US it would be someone betting 5 or 6 figures, but British politicians are so cheap that they’ll do something like this for a few hundred quid. Like Matt Hancock giving away COVID PPE contracts to his pub landlord in return for a few packs of pork scratchings. Or when he awarded a £37bn testing contract in return for sounding like a £1500 jockey club membership. Or when Robert Jenrick overruled Tower Hamlets council to let Richard Desmond build a £1bn development and avoid a £40m community infrastructure charge for a mere £12k donation. In any sane country the person making it all go away would want at least a few million for their trouble, but we can’t even do corruption well!

Malfeasance when: a public officer acting as such. wilfully neglects to perform their duty and/or wilfully misconducts themselves.

Placing a bet would seems cover it. Knowing of having inside info on dates and placing a bet would seem to be misconduct, which opens up Malfeasance in a public office charges.

Difference in treatment down to one being colleagues could help keep you in power and the other being staff that will be replaced by someone who deals with that stuff.

Rumours that a cabinet minister gets named today

I do wonder, if it were possible, would Lil’ Rishi bump the election forward by another week, just so this whole thing could be over that bit sooner and he could piss off back to California where he was happier.

Rather perversely,  I’m hoping Rishi successfully defends his seat and therefore can’t simply walk away on 5th July.

I think the cop is charged with Misconduct in Public Office because as a close protection officer he inevitably had access to / awareness of / insight into what was happening at the top of government.  There is a very strong expectation that whatever knowledge he gains that way is strictly confidential.  If he’d sold it to the papers, posted it on Twitter etc it would still be misconduct in public office – whereas if the PM’s PPS had leaked it – he’d probably not be guilty of misconduct.

Presumably because the mp would argue that the leaking doesn’t constitute wrong as it is an accepted part of political working. However both still have the confidentiality expectation and sticking a fiver on at Paddy Power is the same for both –  just MP’s don’t believe in facing the justice system.

The Gambling Commission will lead an investigation and prosecution on cheating.  The police will lead an investigation on Misconduct in public office.  I wouldn’t assume that no charges so far = no charges will be brought.