The Greek Referendum: I predict a Yes

No ZM bureaucrats or private entity, however big they are, should be allowed to threaten a nation such way. These ZMs should be taught a hard lesson for trying to threaten a nation!

If you don’t want to be beholden to the bank, don’t get in debt!

The Greeks are as much victims of their own fiscal ineptitude as much as they are victims of the banks.

So failed last time ? ……..well failed for a considerable number of years. The EU bureaucrats have had their preferred choice in government for literally years.

I think that’s what I was saying.

If you don’t want to be beholden to the bank, don’t get in debt!

As I said before, it’s like the Mafia – once you owe them a penny, your life is fecked.

I think that’s what I was saying.

I thought so too. So you probably were 🙂

EDIT : I thought the point needed expanding in light of dragon’s comment – “….problem is the Trokia don’t trust the Greeks to make the necessary moves to allow the country to recover and that is what it all boils down to”

I don’t think the Troika can argue that last 5 months have been a game changer. Greece was in a mess long before then, when it was ruled by governments which they supported.

I am in Crete,bollocks to the reasons for the hole Greece is in,they are running out of Erdinger! #prayforduckman
On a serious note,it is noticeable here,in the two years since I have been in the same resort town,the place has aged 20.All the cash machines are empty as soon as they are filled(for the last time yesterday) 60e or not.

i think its great that some people are standing up against the capitalist screwmongers -cant pay wont pay ! big versions of loan sharks…

Standing up against? You are kidding, surely. They are being driven into the dirt but political fantasy on their own side and self righteousnouss on the other all mixed in with overall incompetence and deceit. The result is a breakdown of social, economic and political structures – this is not standing up against anything, it’s a sorry and desperate plight being played out in a very real Greek tragedy.

There is no heroism being shown by Tsipras or Varoufakis. For all the bravado, they were/are desperate to do the deal and have in the end being willing to make the sacrifices they were elected to prevent. Suicidal expediency!

And now another central bank that had decided not to be the lender of last resort with trigger a haircut in domestic deposits. Excuse mr Bank may I have my 100 € back. Yes sir, they you are €70. Some standing up!!

Anything for the weekend, sir?

Yes, haircuts all round please!

Where I am I’ve tried to speak to staff about it but I’m thinking they must be under instruction by hotel management not to discuss the situation. Had no need to get extra euros but guy at bar last night had no problems getting cash out of hotel atm.

They are being driven into the dirt but political fantasy on their own side ……

Are you suggesting that the present Greek government is no different to all previous Greek governments which cynically sold the fantasy that 7 self-defeating Troika brokered austerity packages were the solution ?

Or the Troika itself which doesn’t believe it’s own economic fantasies ? …..as highlighted recently by the IMF breaking ranks and contradicting the claims of the European bureaucrats/bankers.

Not suggesting anything Ernie. My views on the failings on all the major players here are clear. Too early for silly games, selective quoting and making up what others might be suggesting, surely?
I

Oh I’m ‘misrepresenting’ you am I ? 😆

And of course your views are always crystal clear …… reminds us again, who did you vote for in the general election 2 months ago ? 🙂

Obviously not too early.

I think it’s a bit harsh to put the blame for this mess on Syriza’s “fantasy”. Probably they were naive and imagined that the troika would discuss in good faith. Now as every hour passes there emerges new evidence that the objective has nothing to do with a good financial outcome and everything to do with strangling a leftist government at birth. The sad truth is that the infanticide will likely be successful and the Greek people will continue as slaves endlessly trying to fill a bowl that empties faster than they can fill it.

Doc, as discussed before, there are fantasies on all sides. The IMF didn’t believe in their policies and Tsipras is not stupid enough to believe that he could tear up the bailout agreement while staying in the €. All smoke screens. Both are as much fantasies as the idea of fixed exchange rates in a non optimum currency area and without full monetary and fiscal union. The point remains that politics can trump economics in the short term, but the truisms of the dirty science come through in the end.

As discussed on some FT forums, I find it incredible that governments, international organisations and other players are able to deliberately distort markets through mis-information and deceit and this has been the case pretty much throughout this whole debacle. There are rules in the markets against this but not if you are self servants by the looks of things.

Of course, the € (and Greek workers) was doomed from the start due to floored design and poor implementation. That elephant sits happily in the middle of the stage swatting the flies of it’s back with its elegant trunk while the actors playing out the tragedy run around on all sides.

The point remains that politics can trump economics in the short term, but the truisms of the dirty science come through in the end.

And unfortunately nobody cares, and nobody will care about ordinary people, as long as the political game continues, until at last the pot blows and then they will say “we never imagined that would happen!”

Indeed which is why I “enjoyed” reading this when it was first published

Greece’s ‘Odious’ Debt: The Looting of the Hellenic Republic by the Euro, the Political Elite and the Investment Community (Anthem Finance) Paperback – 5 May 2011

For once the headline really does stay it all.

What’s really depressing is the price being paid by the Greek people for a situation (Ill) conceived in the corridors of power in Brussels, in their cloud cuckoo land currency project, and now being played out through political posturing on both sides.

The guardian reporting the hospitals are running out of drugs, and people are starving. None of the politicians on either side seem to give a shit. Too busy concentrating on their ego-driven grandstanding, and macho posturing

Thoroughly depressing

Made more depressing when you read this

https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11270.htm

And who funds this?

Well, compared with her predecessors Lagarde is a paragon of virtue.

Nothing new : “To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace.”

A new take on the democratic process – going back with a worse offer than the one the referendum rejected. What a farce!

going back with a worse offer than the one the referendum rejected. What a farce!

There has been no new “offer” to Greece. The ball is in Greece’s court – the European Commission is waiting to see what Greece offers.

There is however evidence of a change in attitude within the EU, including in Germany. This is significant and suggests that Greece might now be in a more favourable position than it was before the referendum.

” This is the first time Europe’s institutions have acknowledged clearly that Greece’s public debt – 180pc of GDP – can never be repaid and that no lasting solution can be found until the boil is lanced.

Any such deal would give Greek premier Alexis Tspiras a prize to take back to the Greek people after they voted by 61pc to 39pc to reject austerity demands in a landslide referendum last weekend.

Germany’s subtle shift in position comes as the United States, France, and Italy joined in a united call for debt relief, buttressed by a crescendo of emphatic statements by Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund. “

Greek deal in sight as Germany bows to huge global pressure for debt relief

So they’re actually going to see sense? 😯

I have to admit I was expecting to see these first

So after watching this debacle with increasing disgust, how many people are thinking along these lines In next years referendum.

An awful lot, I’d imagine

Anyone who is banking on Germany backing down is in for a rude shock. FWIW Germany isn’t even the most hawkish eurozone member, there are numerous others less inclined to bail out Greece yet again.

Allegedly Tsipras has submitted a proposal with 50% more “austerity” than he was offered 10 days ago. There will be no debt relief up front, it will all be contingent on Greece making reforms and sticking to a plan (which nine of believe they will do). IMF called for debt relief but was not prepared to offer a single cent of that itself, quite comical really.

Many commentators saying euro exit is now 60-70% likely even in the event of a deal. Greece is loosing €1-1.5bn in GDP a week now as the economy is in free fall.

What’s surprised me coming back from holiday is that I thought the banks would have been open on Tuesday like Varoufakis promised and a deal signed by Tsipras on Wednesday, those are the promises made prior to the referendum.

@binners Europe is not acting as a thug, it’s been very generous towards Greece is avoiding a bankruptcy / euro exit in 2010 and in the meantime Greece has not kept its side of the bargain (reforms, privatisations, tax collections etc). I’m sure many of the eurozone members are as bored of Greek shenanigans as I am. Bigger issues to worry about in China right now.

Europe is not acting as a thug, it’s been very generous towards Greece is avoiding a bankruptcy / euro exit in 2010 and in the meantime Greece has not kept its side of the bargain (reforms, privatisations, tax collections etc).

Aren’t you embarrassed spouting lies and nonsense like that ?

I guess not 😐

Wasn’t really my point Jammers. We’ve covered all that. I’m just making the point that this whole debacle has exposed the EU as the utterly authoritarian anti-democratic, self-interested shambles it is, to a lot of people who hadn’t paid much attention in the past?

Or shown that the ideal of a United Europe, which most are in favour of, has been utterly corrupted beyond recognition, and what we have instead is pretty bloody unpleasant. To put it mildly

The Greek government have played it badly as well. Apparently they never expected to win the referendum and so didn’t have any proper plans in place for when they did. Crazy.

What binners said, + lots.

EU in action – there was a speech in the EU parliament by Guy Verhofstadt, Beligian MEP, earlier in the week, which gained a lot of press, in which he made a lot of elaborate criticisms of Tsipras. Turns out he is on the board of a consortium bidding to buy the Greek public water company, so he would personally financially gain from the “reforms” he is pushing.

http://www.thepressproject.gr/details_en.php?aid=62406

The Greek government have played it badly as well.

I think right from the start they were naive in thinking that the troika would play fair.

http://www.mediapart.fr/journal/international/080715/we-underestimated-their-power-greek-government-insider-lifts-lid-five-months-humiliation-and-blackm?page_article=4

Beginning of week – Greeks vote no to austerity.
End of week – Greek government proposes austerity plan.
Good to see democracy in action.

dragon – Member
The Greek government have played it badly as well. Apparently they never expected to win the referendum and so didn’t have any proper plans in place for when they did. Crazy.

+1

But as above, all players have misplayed this. Not least because we continue to deal with the symptoms not the causes. The lack of consensus across Europe is interesting this morning.

France being France, appear to be the friends but behind much of the drafting of a worse outcome than before. It’s brilliant in its awfulness!!

To accept a worse outcome than the one which was rejected is awesome – democracy on its head!!!

The Greek government have played it badly as well.

Syriza are utterly committed to the EU and the Euro, I can’t see how they could ever play it in any other way but badly.

Like most things the EU do, its Democracy through the looking glass.

Ultimately Brussels ALWAYS gets its way, no matter which way the electorate votes

France being France, appear to be the friends but behind much of the drafting of a worse outcome than before. It’s brilliant in its awfulness!!

To accept a worse outcome than the one which was rejected is awesome – democracy on its head!!!

I think the Greeks were shocked by the violent and unreasonable EU response and are just desperate to save their banking system from being (arguably illegally) torpedoed by the ECB.

If they have any sense they start planning for a longer term exit from the Euro by getting their economy and infrastructure in better shape, ending the oligarchies etc.

Ultimately Brussels ALWAYS gets its way, no matter which way the electorate votes

Well only one of 28 odd countries actually voted here wrt Greece and Austerity, so we don’t actually know what the whole EU electorate will is.

we don’t actually know what the whole EU electorate will is.

If this really was an issue which concerns “the whole EU” then the debt would belong to “the whole EU”.

Why doesn’t it by the way ? …….. single currency, one fully integrated Europe, and all that.

Yes, we’re all in it together…

The only thing undemocratic about this is Syriza capitulating to Austerity having had a referendum asking them not to (assuming it actually happens).

As for the debt, lots of EU countries leant Greece money, some have much higher exposure as a % of GDP than Germany:

On that ranking, Germany falls to eighth place with an exposure amounting to 2.37% of its economy’s size. France falls to seventh at 2.38% and Italy to fourth. On this measure, Slovenia at 3.06%, Malta at 3.03% and Spain at 2.78% appear to have the most to lose.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/07/greeces-lenders-who-has-the-most-to-lose