The Greek Referendum: I predict a Yes

But the government are wanting to protect pensions and I can’t see how this is achievable and it is possible worse if they were to leave the EZ. Take Iceland as an example their pensions were heavily reduced and they had inflation (due to currency devaluing).

What are the terms of the loans (interest and timescales?)

When the U.S. lent the UK billions of dollars at the end of WW2 it was 2% over 50 years..

I don’t get why Nation states, when loaning money, have to act like Wonga all of sudden. With Penalties, and time limited offers and so on…makes no sense

What industries do the Greek have apart from tourism and olive oil?

1. Continue to use EURO by borrowing more at the loan shark’s terms by being the beggars of EU with no way back or paying back?

Or

2. Be skint and start to be self-reliance with dignity intact?

Bear in mind they still have farmland and they can fish. I doubt the Turks will invade them just because they don’t use EURO.

As for the EU technocrats they are exerting their “political” (non-elected) power because this is an opportunity they so desire.

The EU ZM technocrats are like bunch of finance people in the company trying to run the company indirectly.

This is an example for UK to see and if UK let EU ZM technocrats ruled them.

🙄

I completely agree with chewkw

There. I said it.

DrJ – Member

I completely agree with chewkw

There. I said it.

😆 (someone agrees)

Greece really need to live within their means to avoid getting caught up with borrow to spend culture.

Sadly this Greek situation will not be the last that we will see in EURO coz there are still many countries that want to join to get “free money” if Greece can get away with constantly borrowing.

Imagine if Ukraine is adopting EURO … 😯

The trouble is, neither is the package on offer if they vote yes. At best it will kick this situation a year or two down the road, when the next lot of loan payments are due and Greece is in no better position to service its debts than it is now. It might not be roses if they leave now, but they’ll definitely be down to the manure if they wait.

Of course anybody with any sense amongst the creditors knows that this is just another sub-prime loan which can never be paid back (see link in dazh’s post up thread). The creditors would be far better off writing off much of the money and restructuring in the hope that the economy will start working well enough again that they can get some of their money back.

But they’re refusing to do that because this is no longer about Greece – it’s a bloody stupid game of political brinksmanship. I had a revelation earlier, as there seemed no obvious endgame position which actually makes sense for the creditors – I’m now convinced that the whole point is to put off the eventual inevitable bit of a mess for a few years in the hope that the economies of other ailing countries recovers sufficiently that none of them are tempted to also try and write off their loans. Because ultimately a grexit isn’t in anybodies interests – at which point you realise that the correct strategy for Greece to follow is to convince the creditors that is what’s going to happen if they don’t budge a bit more. Meanwhile all this strongarm stuff with funding offers being withdrawn after arbitrary deadlines is an attempt by the creditors to show that they’re not going to fall for that.

For those suggesting it was all the fault of Greece for taking out loans to support their unsustainable public sector deficit, well why didn’t those loaning them the money look more closely into how they were going to be paid back? How come they didn’t spot the scam? If we’re blaming Greece for this crisis are we also now blaming the people who took out the sub-prime mortgages for the global crisis?

aracer – Member
… well why didn’t those loaning them the money look more closely into how they were going to be paid back? How come they didn’t spot the scam?

Oh yes they saw the scam long time ago but kept a blind eye because they have other motives, so proceed with it because they want to net bigger fish in the pond. As long as they can maintain the “stability” they can slowly reel in the biggest fish of them all … The UK.

UK is the biggest fish of them all, oh yes. This big fish alone will feed them all with the ZM technocrats calling the shots in the background without the people knowing …

If we’re blaming Greece for this crisis are we also now blaming the people who took out the sub-prime mortgages for the global crisis?

Not the Greek but their representatives i.e. their politicians who themselves cannot stand straight/clean. Just like the sub-prime etc it is the governing bodies who are either too eager to “bribe” the people with good living (economic growth etc) or simply fish out of water with no clue of the impacts they have when they made their ill thought of decisions because of greed.

😮

This now definitely looks like the end game for Greece in the Euro, whichever way the referendum goes. Their economy, such as it is, has effectively ground to a halt, and the Germans are ratcheting up the retoric with the finance minister referring too Greece as a ‘corrupt state’.

Doesn’t really look like there’s any coming back from that

As long as they can maintain the “stability” they can slowly reel in the biggest fish of them all … The UK.

UK is the biggest fish of them all, oh yes. This big fish alone will feed them all with the ZM technocrats calling the shots in the background without the people knowing …

What are you smoking?

footflaps – Member

As long as they can maintain the “stability” they can slowly reel in the biggest fish of them all … The UK.

UK is the biggest fish of them all, oh yes. This big fish alone will feed them all with the ZM technocrats calling the shots in the background without the people knowing …

What are you smoking? [/quote]

If I was a ZM technocrat that is what I would do to slowly reel in the big fish …

Hey dude! You like smoking weed? (like the scene in typical “cool” dude Merican movie over doing it when greeting another weed head) You like smoking weed? “cool man cool” … ya right … not cool man not cool. 🙄

Everyone knows UK is financially sound so if UK starts to use EURO (yes, yes, you need to be full EU member first and the ZM is working on that) then you hang yourself and yes I told you so … make sure you hang yourself high …

You have to love € zone politicians and their BS

So let’s have a referendum (cost €100m) on technical topics no one will understand about an offer that is no longer on the table and about issues that the rest of the Euro zone think of completely seperately.

Complete moussaka

THM in that case you mean specific Greek politicians. The referendum is clearly a terrible idea, from politicians bottling it and looking to pass the buck of responsibility.

Have we done this pic, which supposedly shows the Greece finance minister signing the agreement to write off 50% of Germany’s debt?

IMF says Greece needs extra €50bn in funds and debt relief
International lender issues strong message to Europe by warning that Athens’ debts are unsustainable and it needs 20-year grace period on debt repayments.

The International Monetary Fund has electrified the referendum debate in Greece after it conceded that the crisis-ridden country needs €50bn (£35bn or $55bn) of extra funds over the next three years and large-scale debt relief to create “a breathing space” and stabilise the economy.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/02/imf-greece-needs-extra-50bn-euros

I think its fair to say that the Greek politicians narrative to portray themselves as underdogs being bullied by an overbearing, controlling and power-obsesed Germany has only half worked.

Not many are seeing them as plucky underdogs. They’ve made their own bed, after all. But Germany seems to be doing its upmost to conform to the picture being painted. They’re not coming out of this looking good. And I think plenty of people (myself included) who are very pro-Europe are raising a few eyebrows at the way Germany is issuing dictats, and generally throwing its weight around! How German politicians are behaving at the moment, particularly the finance minister, is a pretty unedifying spectacle

dragon – Member

THM in that case you mean specific Greek politicians. The referendum is clearly a terrible idea, from politicians bottling it and looking to pass the buck of responsibility.

You want to argue with the Greece the birthplace of western democracy?

What the Greek politicians have done is exactly the definition of democracy by asking the majority.

I cannot see anyone politician or not will want to shoulder Greek financial turmoil. Passing the buck to the majority is the only way … yes, in the name of democracy.

In actual fact you are seeing democracy at work real time … 😛

It’s evident that, much as we all like to simplify, there are a multitude of complex factors driving this. Whoever above^^^^ described the glacier melting is right – all those factors have shrunk the ice everyone’s standing on and it’s a game of brinksmanship to see who’s last man standing.

I predict China to be the last man standing. After all, they’re already involved in Pireaus, one of Greece’s main economic activities.

(Oh, and I also predict major migration of people under 30, thus further bolloxing the country’s finances.)

ourmaninthenorth – Member
I predict China to be the last man standing. After all, they’re already involved in Pireaus, one of Greece’s main economic activities.

(Oh, and I also predict major migration of people under 30, thus further bolloxing the country’s finances.)

This is an opportunity for China to make further in roads into Europe if they invest heavily. They might even create more jobs for the locals but Chinese style … you learn Mandarin! (side note. I have several Greek friends and they seem to have some sort of strong liking for Chinese girls so started to learn a bit of Mandarin … FFS 😮 )

binners – Member
And I think plenty of people (myself included) who are very pro-Europe are raising a few eyebrows at the way Germany is issuing dictats, and generally throwing its weight around!

I’d have to agree 100% with that.

THM in that case you mean specific Greek politicians. The referendum is clearly a terrible idea, from politicians bottling it and looking to pass the buck of responsibility.

Err … no. Politicians unwilling to go beyond their mandate without the consent of the people. The alternative? Sign up for an agreement they said they wouldn’t while campaigning. It’s called democracy.

Err … no. Politicians unwilling to go beyond their mandate without the consent of the people.

Seriously??? C’mon doc you are watching the news. Tsipras is already doing that as is blindingly obvious. The referendum is nothing more than a smokescreen.

The alternative? Sign up for an agreement they said they wouldn’t while campaigning.

You saw his latest letter and seen some of the policies already implemented?

It’s called democracy.

If only!

Chatted with a Cypriot today which was amusing – the difference between us and the Greeks is that we take our medicine and get on with it. They don’t.

Not agreeing necessarily but amusing nonetheless.

Why would Greece have to adopt a new currency? Surely it could just drop out of the European Central Bank but continue to use the Euro, in the same way that Montenegro does?

Have we done this pic, which supposedly shows the Greece finance minister signing the agreement to write off 50% of Germany’s debt?

I’m surprised he could even read what was in front of him considering his eyebrows would have blocked out all the light.

Been out of circulation and at airport off on holiday, Turkey not Greece of course. A few thoughts as time to kill ….

Greece is in a very very bad way now, independent of the referendum result there is a high likelihood of a Greek euro exit following a default to the EU – a combination of Greek accident (Yes vote) or effectively via choice with a No following a protracted stalemate.

Tsipras and Varoufakis have taken the misrepresentation to a new level. Tsipras claiming he will sign a deal within 48 hours .. there is no deal he can sign nor can there be without the Troika reassessing the Greek economy, the political landscape in Greece (Yes vote could see Syriza coalition collapse), also a new agreement needs parliamentary sign off in many countries, that will take time (weeks) and all the while the banks will be shut and the Greek economy in free fall further undermining the negotiators credibility. With a “no” vote there will mostly likely be no agreement either for months or at all. Either was Greece collapses and exits the euro despite Varoufakis’s protestations that there is no mechanism or roadmap. You don’t need one it will just happen as Greece is forced to print its own currency / IOUs

Varoufakis has said the banks will open Monday, I can’t see how. They could be shut months and even if they reopen it will be for very limited services, like pension withdrawals or limited cash amounts. Account holders won’t be given access to all their money. That money ma well be Drachma when the banks re-open. The Troika has no mechanism to support the banks now Greece is outside of a formal programme, so. Monday or indeed anytime next week looks highly unlikely.

I can’t see how Greece can function, no one can get cash, electronic payments don’t work. Greece imports the majority of its fuel, food and medicines and it can’t pay for any of them. Tourists will stop coming and the we are at the most important part of the season. I think we could see humanitarian aid being required from the global charities.

The IMF report could work two ways, it could well cause eurozone voters and their representatives to take breath and decide Greece cannot be saved as its simply too expensive. It’s better to walk away.

The idiotic tactics of game theory have backfired badly, it will be at a very great expense to the Greek people. Like nothing they’ve seen to date

The idiotic tactics of game theory have backfired badly, it will be at a very great expense to the Greek people. Like nothing they’ve seen to date

I often disagree with you Jambalaya on matters or politics and economics, but I cannot help agreeing with you entirely on this point. The Greeks invented the term for this winning at all costs scenario: Pyrrhic victory.

To see a nation in Western Europe is such a mess and facing that level of crisis is outrageous – those who can leave, will. Those who can’t will find themselves in perilous times.

I’m not going to predict the Weimar republic, but the vacuum this will create will be significant. And for anyone thinking that this won;t have a ripple I just don’t believe them.

The idiotic tactics of game theory have backfired badly,

What “game theory”?. Varoufakis presented his analysis on Day One. The EU refused to accept it, for political motives. Now it turns out the IMF agreed with him all along. Someone has been playing a dirty game here, and it’s not Syriza.

I often disagree with you Jambalaya on matters or politics and economics, but I cannot help agreeing with you entirely on this point. The Greeks invented the term for this winning at all costs scenario: Pyrrhic victory.

+1

Yep, they seem to be digging a bigger a bigger hole for themselves and encouraging everyone to help them dig.

I expect to see martial law within 2 weeks and humanitarian aid and peace keepers within a month.

this is handy. Whether it’s a fair analysis I can’t say though.

Interesting Stoner. I’ll finish the work I’m doing and wander through it.

@ DrJ & Footflaps – I took Jambalaya’s reference to game theory to be around the apparent zero sum game (that Stoner’s chart neatly encapsulates) that both the Greek government and the Troika appear to be playing.

I sincerely hope we don’t see the wort of breakdown of law and order that people are describing. Thankfully my relatives are all Cypriot, so they’ll be pretty much spared (though affected, I’m sure).

Even if they do manage to do a deal which keeps Greece afloat for now, one inevitability if the banks reopen dealing in Euros is a run on them – you’d be pretty stupid to prefer having your money in a bank where it might get massively devalued rather than under the mattress. Not quite sure how they’re going to manage that one.

Actually come to think of it, if I was in Greece I’d have taken all my money out of the bank ages ago.

I don’t agree that either side has been playing a zero sum game. The troika game is more like “beggar your neighbour”.

Hmm. I think you might be right DrJ.

There’s definitely something about the phrase “house of cards” that rings around all of this….

Interesting chart, but does not spell out clearly the EC role in overthrow of a democratically elected government.

Compare with how it would have looked if, on Day One, YV had presented the same analysis now shared by the IMF, and the creditors said “yes, it’s plain you can never repay these loans. If we write them off what will you do to restructure the economy, ensure fair tax collection and tackle corruption? What can we do to help?”

Indeed – zero sum game would imply that Greece getting less results in the troika getting more, whilst in reality Greece getting less results in the troika getting less, because Greece simply can’t afford to pay them back. If you look at the Greece situation in isolation, the way for the troika to get the most back is for them to write off some of the debt and so allow Greece to recover. Everybody wins.

the way for the troika to get the most back is for them to write off some of the debt and so allow Greece to recover.

Makes it sound so simple, problem is the Trokia don’t trust the Greeks to make the necessary moves to allow the country to recover and that is what it all boils down to.

The idiotic tactics of game theory have backfired badly, it will be at a very great expense to the Greek people. Like nothing they’ve seen to date

Why this obsession with game theory? Seems like everyone has latched on to the fact that YV did some game theory research whilst an academic and is now assuming he’s employing it in some special way. Has it crossed anyone’s mind that he may just be ‘negiotiating’?

Jambalaya once again you talk as if what is happening is the perfectly reasonable response of a responsible lender being let down by a spendthrift borrower. Aside from arguments about who is to blame, how can the ruthless loan-shark mafia behaviour of the EZ be at all justified? Even the IMF are now looking like pinko liberal bleeding hearts in comparison.

Well they could make a debt write off (rather than just another restructuring) conditional on Greece making the right moves. Because their current position is illogical whether or not they trust Greece.

Makes it sound so simple, problem is the Trokia don’t trust the Greeks to make the necessary moves to allow the country to recover and that is what it all boils down to.

That would be a plausible theory if it wasn’t clear that the EU are intent on overthrowing Syriza, who came to power with an anticorruption agenda, and installing the same people who failed last time around.

What is interesting also is, if this is the agenda in Greece, what actually happened in Ukraine, where we have less first hand knowledge of events?

No matter how good an analyst you are the bottom line is Greece has no way of paying back the loan within a generation or two.

Their main sources of income are tourism and olive oil and perhaps some insignificant ship building activities so how much can they gain from there? Remember the population demand the standard of living equivalent to that of their wealthy EU neighbours which is practically unsustainable no matter how you see it. They are living beyond their means.

EU or IMF can keep pumping in money to sustain Greece but they will have to keep doing so for a very long time as the Greeks need feeding …

DrJ – Member
What is interesting also is, if this is the agenda in Greece, what actually happened in Ukraine, where we have less first hand knowledge of events?

Make Ukraine the new eastern front with multinational military base and the military will be the main spending power in that nation, which means heavy military presence which also means war is looming … 😀

Alternatively invade Russia? 😆

…..installing the same people who failed last time around.

Syriza have only been in government 5 months, for the previous 5 years there were pro-austerity governments which happily went long with half a dozen different Troika brokered austerity packages. And before all that we of course had the Greek governments which helped get Greece into this mess, namely the right-wing conservatives.

So failed last time ? ……..well failed for a considerable number of years. The EU bureaucrats have had their preferred choice in government for literally years.

But now they complain about the mess and blame Syriza which has been in power for only 5 months.

ernie_lynch – Member
The EU bureaucrats have had their preferred choice in government for literally years.

Yeap, I bet the ZM EU bureaucrats are also secretly running the country by pulling the purse string of preferred choice of govt. They kept quiet as long as they got their ways but now they are showing their true colours.

What we are witnessing is ZM bureaucrats threatening an entire nation which is similar to multinational companies threatening UK govt via divestment.

No ZM bureaucrats or private entity, however big they are, should be allowed to threaten a nation such way. These ZMs should be taught a hard lesson for trying to threaten a nation! 😡