Scottish politics thread

They can form a govt if they can cobble together a coalition that commands a majority, under any leader, could be Yousaf or another.

As for the mechanism by which an election is held if this cannot be achieved, I have no idea.

129 MSPs.

63 of which are SNP.

The Preciding Officer doesn’t get a vote.

If it’s 64 Vs 64 then Yousaf stays.

Ash Regan could be the decider. If she votes NC then I think Yousaf would have to make way for someone else. I’m not sure what happens if that person also fails to get 64 votes, but there’s no way any other party is going to get 64 votes either.

Going “to the country” would likely be the next move? We’ve seen other countries manage to carry on for months/years without a functioning government.

So far as I understand since the motion is vote of no confidence in him he doesnt have to resign, whereas if there was a vote of no confidence in his government he and all his ministers would have to resign within 28 days.
If I am correct about that I think this option will just lead to “death by a thousand cùrsa”

I bet Kate Forbes is clearing her diary 😂

https://www.thenational.scot/news/24278590.will-humza-yousaf-resign-loses-no-confidence-vote/#:~:text=What%20happens%20if%20Humza%20Yousaf,to%20resign%20as%20First%20Minister.

Ash Regan could be the decider. If she votes NC then I think Yousaf would have to make way for someone else. I’m not sure what happens if that person also fails to get 64 votes, but there’s no way any other party is going to get 64 votes either.

id have thought there would be some on the opposition benches who would rather he didn’t lose it?  In the end either they got a better leader which is bad for the opposition OR they go to the polls and would THEY be sure of reelection?  A couple of “selfish” abstentions would be enough….

Aye, but (certainly at Westminster) there’s a convention that no opposition party would ever admit they didn’t want a GE.

The SNP have been falling apart for a while now, sadly that’s politics, start up, get some power, incoming career politicians and the likes turn up and then add in fallings out, scandals, nepotism and so on and you’ve got the usual political goings on as in every successful party.

As for Humza, he’s not the greatest, but in the current climate, he’s probably the most vanilla, non damaging First Minister, which is not a bad thing due to the state of a few of the candidates that were up for it last time!

As for independence, that’s not even in the discussion for me just now, that happens after the vote is confirmed, the only folks thinking it’s good or bad are those who will vote Yes or No right now, next year, ten years from now no matter the argument.

Is this a variation of the Johann Lamont argument that Scots are genetically incapable of governing themselves?

Don’t know where you got that inference from. No I was suggesting that for some voters in Scotland, probably the key ones in the middle of the independence debate the SNP are the face of independence, and therefore as they are hardly covering themselves in glory at the moment that will tiant swing voters view of independence. We’re along way from the RA RA days of the referendum.

And really, we’re trying to argue that the problems with the EU are equivalent to the problems with Westminster?

Pretty much, except Scotland is way more dependant on rUK than the UK was on Europe and that split hasn’t exactly gone well has it.

 I was suggesting that for some voters in Scotland, probably the key ones in the middle of the independence debate the SNP are the face of independence, and therefore as they are hardly covering themselves in glory at the moment that will tiant swing voters view of independence.

I’d agree with this. I also think that lack of any momentum on the issue from the SNP has made folk less likely to turn out and support them. If the message remains “now is not the time” then folk just get turned off. I did see some polling suggesting that Labour were doing better than the SNP in many areas but I wonder how much of that is down to folk just not being engaged at the moment. An election (especially for Holyrood) will awaken some of those sleeping voters, which is why I think the SNP will do a bit better than the current polling suggests.

The fact that the electoral system makes it very difficult to gain a majority in Holyrood seems to pass everyone by.  The fluke of 2011 was through a narrow window of a big list vote and slightly poorer seat performance.  Usually if a party dominates, they will not get the list seats to take them over the line.

Time and time again being a minority is used as a stick to beat the main party (I remember when it was not the SNP).

One attraction for indy is that is the one thing that will kill the SNP.  Wish such kryptonite existed against the Conservative party.

If I was the opposition I’d want him be first minister in the lead up to any general election. He’s been inept in all of his previous roles, and made a huge error of judgement today, that could lead to him losing his job next week. If I was the opposition I wouldn’t want to face Kate Forbes as she seems more confident and competent that Useless and more likeable than Sturgeon/Salmond (any religious eccentricity aside).

Humza actually seems a nice enough fella…just incompetent!

any religious eccentricity aside

Kate Forbes was incredibly naive to even respond to discussion on her personal beliefs, rather than stick to the policies she would support,  especially after Tim Farron made that mistake previously. I am staggered she hadn’t been coached in this beforehand.  Shame as obvs very, very competant, but maybe wanted an out for family reasons.

Humza actually seems a nice enough fella…just incompetent!

Very much this. Rather than throw his toys he could have negotiated an end to the Bute deal with the Greens to both their advantage.

All the politicians from all main partys in Scottish parliament seem so utterly lightweight

Kate Forbes was incredibly naive to even respond to discussion on her personal beliefs, rather than stick to the policies she would support,

Definitely.  Although some of her previous support to get to where she did might have left her in an echo chamber where she actually though those things would resonate.

especially after Tim Farron made that mistake previously. I am staggered she hadn’t been coached in this beforehand.

I don’t think she was really prepared at all for the election –  it came as a surprise so there was no coaching.  That said, like many strongly religious people they believe their views are unchallengeable and I’m not sure that even with hindsight she’d say she got that wrong.

Shame as obvs very, very competant, but maybe wanted an out for family reasons.

A core skill of being a major political leader is knowing how to read the room.  I’d say a political leader with strongly held, openly communicated religious views of any flavour in Scotland was not actually as competent as the rest of her persona would suggest.

Scotroutes… an awful lot of people have voted SNP and will be looking at the alternatives thinking- you’ve done nothing to move towards compromise on the biggest issue in Scottish politics, Alba might do better than they should, and the greens haven’t really shown themselves to be very good but I think will mop up disgruntled left wing Indy voters.  The other parties are weirdly anonymous and lacking in meaning.

Fasgath – Indy probably causes the tories to implode too!  New parties will of course fill the various vacuums left after Indy causes the parties to question their very existence and tear themselves apart with infighting

Surely the biggest case for Indy is simply pointing South to Westminster and saying ‘we can be free from the damage caused to 90% in Scotland by this shower of shit’.

It’s absolutely fine to be religious and to be a political leader.  As was repeatedly brought up during the leadership contest Yousaf himself is religious.

What is not OK is to come out and say you are going to allow your religious beliefs to influence your decisions.  Anyone who says that is simply too much of a religious nutter or too politically incompetent to be in the running.  Even Blair knew that.  He didn’t let people know he prayed on whether to invade the Middle East and kill several hundred thousand Arabs until after he was out of office.

We’ll see what happens.  If there is a lurch to the Alba side of the divide then I can see the SNP losing a lot of support among young people.  What that is going to mean for the independence movement long term we’ll have to wait and see.

probably the key ones in the middle of the independence debate

I will vote, I’ll not vote SNP next time round, I’m not an Alba voter, and the Conservatives would need a full personality/ethics transplant, locally the Greens are invisible but available as a protest vote. Which doesn’t leave too many choices.

Religious extremists are the very worst of people. As political leaders or otherwise.

As was repeatedly brought up during the leadership contest Yousaf himself is religious.

To be fair, you could never accuse him of pursuing a religious agenda in office…or any kind of agenda. It all seems to be stumbling from one thing to the next.

So still nothing from the anti-SNP/independence posters accepting that what we have is what they want, the Union.

Or is it because publicly they’re not prepared to actually say that just want Scotland ruled no different to Yorkshire, or Somerset etc – i.e. Holyrood dismantled and no Scotland only policies?

If this isn’t true, is it purely that you can’t stand the SNP because they’re anti-Tory – so you voted for Brexit and/or Tory in 2019, you don’t believe in climate change, nor GAS about folk in poverty (should work harder!)?

I can only conclude it’s one or the other as you’re fixated on the dismantling of any independence ability.

You also seem to just want to ‘live’ off the wide backs of the English taxpayers.

the Conservatives would need a full personality/ethics transplant

So the state of the UK economy won’t impact your vote at all?

So you support Brexit, increasing the National Debt by +£300 million PER DAY, love that Tory donors got rich off PPE corruption, adore paying ever higher taxes for poorer public services etc etc?

I really don’t see how Yousaf wins this confidence vote, even if he technically ‘wins’.

Presumably Regan isn’t going to vote for him unless she gets some or all of the demands she’s been gleefully writing a list of.  If the problem with the BHA was that the tail was wagging the dog, how is it going to look if Alba’s sole MSP (who wasn’t elected as an Alba MSP) is now seen to be setting the agenda for the SNP.

There was a way to end the BHA less acrimoniously, I’m sure, but Yousaf’s way could end up burying both him and the SNP.

I’m glad the SNP have ended the deal. I’m not racist but Scotland should be for the Scots, and it’s time we sent these Green people back to where they came from……Greenland.

(thank you Sickipedia)

So still nothing from the anti-SNP/independence posters accepting that what we have is what they want, the Union.

Well I am very much in favour of not breaking away from the Union, but I also happen to think the SNP have generally done a quite decent job in government. I’ll never vote for them for one obvious reason, but the independence issue aside they broadly speaking represent my political viewpoint.

Of course their record in government hasn’t been perfect, no party, regardless of politics, ever is. But Scotland is a brilliant place to live. I’ve loads of friends and family down south, and speaking to them I reckon the quality of life up here is much better. And for me being part of the Union is one of the reasons.

The SNP have done a lot of good things (though let’s not mention ferries), and have been able to do these things while being part of the UK.

As for Humza, well he seems a decent enough bloke, the sort you’d happily go for a beer with. But politically he’s hopeless. Which is why I think it’s strange the Tories have forced a no confidence vote with an election still possibly 6 months away. If he goes then I suspect Kate Forbes will get in who may well revitalise the SNP in time for the next election.

“So still nothing from the anti-SNP/independence posters accepting that what we have is what they want, the Union. “

I think keeping the Union is the best thing currently. Devolution should be extended, Scotland has definitely had the better deal after the Scottish Parliament was set up. As for finances, I’m still not sure Scotland will win, financially, by going Independent. There are so many figures thrown out that it’s a case of which one is correct? If we’re ‘living off the backs of English Taxpayers’ then I dont mind that. Other areas in the UK get that too, so why not Scotland?

‘as you’re fixated on the dismantling of any independence ability.’ Who says that? There is always an independence ability, but the main promoter of that, the SNP has fallen over, and clearly will not be able to mount a Referendum for 10 years +. They had their best chance in 2014, and have subsequently shown they are not the Messiahs many thought they were, and are fallible just like all other Parties.

‘Cant stand the SNP’. Who says that? The only people who say they hate the other party are people who say it about the Tories. There were a few who said it about Labour when Corbyn was in charge, but I have no experience of people saying they hate the SNP. They say they are useless, incompetent, corrupt, but not much more than that.

Independence is a single policy. What’s needed is a complete policy review by the SNP, and to make sure they are doing the correct thing for the Country and the People, rather than being ruled by their ‘Main Aim’. It is running the Country that is the hard part, get that right, and people will see they are doing things correctly, and eventually agree that Independence would be beneficial if it is promoted correctly, rather than having constant digs that the UK Government is holding us back. (And, please stop saying it’s the English, it is the UK Parliament, we do have representation there, as do NI, Wales and England)

On the “Islay’s economy is bigger than Birmingham’s” claim: I had a little poke around and I couldn’t see anyone that was suggesting it and had any numbers. The only source I could see that was articulating the claim and then dismissing it was the Scottish Daily Express (shudder). It seemed to suggest that the claim was comparing the aggregate retail value of all Scotch sold worldwide (including taxes paid to foreign governments on foreign consumption) and then attributing it all to Islay, which is of course nuts. But that’s the Express saying it, so…

https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/leading-nats-slammed-spreading-baseless-32428455

As an aside, I see that “Brexit” is so toxic even among Scottish Daily Express readers that the paper describes Scottish independence as “Scexit”.

So still nothing from the anti-SNP/independence posters accepting that what we have is what they want…you can’t stand the SNP because they’re anti-Tory – so you voted for Brexit and/or Tory in 2019, you don’t believe in climate change, nor GAS about folk in poverty (should work harder!)?…You also seem to just want to ‘live’ off the wide backs of the English taxpayers.

These assumptions are mad things that you’ve just invented. It’s a world that exists only between your two ears.

Is it impossible to hold the SNP to account for their actions in government without it being a position on independence? Or to ask it another way, can’t someone be in favour of devolution or independence and still criticise the SNP for poor performance?

The SNP’s apparent fumbling of health and addiction policy isn’t because they’re in favour of independence – it’s because they’re rubbish and complacent in government. Turning everything that happens in Scotland and Scottish politics into a conversation about independence is extremely reductionist. Sometimes that seems to be a deliberate tactic to distract from the issue actually in question.

I don’t think you’ve effectively argued the case that the SNP have fumbled on health and addiction policies. Your only argument is the drug death figures (which are really bad) you haven’t pinpointed any policies which cause it.

It’s absolutely fine to be religious and to be a political leader.  As was repeatedly brought up during the leadership contest Yousaf himself is religious.

What is not OK is to come out and say you are going to allow your religious beliefs to influence your decisions.  Anyone who says that is simply too much of a religious nutter or too politically incompetent to be in the running. …..etc etc

Completely agree! Also why I think Assisted Dying should be a manifesto topic for each party.

re drugs:

The death rate is higher as the Scots changed the emphasis from rehabilitation and recovery to one that prioritises harm reduction. It didn’t work for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they tried to save money by getting rid of many of the rehabilitation and recovery programmes, and instead relied on users giving up by themselves while being supported on ‘cleaner’ drugs. and secondly, drug habits change over time, and most Scottish drug deaths are users that are combining street and ‘script drugs for fun rather than O/Ding on opiates becasue of addiction (which is mainly what harm reduction schemes are aimed at).

The Scottish system is a good starting point, but it still needs the push and support (including penalties) from agencies to get people to stop, and it needs to evolve to cope with the way that folks are actually using drugs, and it hasn’t.

@poly

the greens haven’t really shown themselves to be very good but I think will mop up disgruntled left wing Indy voters

Lorna Slater has already said that Independence isn’t a red line for co-operating with Labour, so I think it depends on where folk place their Left/Right political beliefs as a relative priority with Independence.

(FWIW, I despise the use of Left/Right to describe folks political leanings as it’s simply not nuanced enough).

The gloves are off now
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24280190.anas-sarwar-lodge-vote-no-confidence-scottish-government/

Wings has Neil Gray as the new leader when Yousaf resigns in the next couple of days.

Wings has Neil Gray as the new leader when Yousaf resigns in the next couple of days.

That’s a sad indictment on the lack of leaders in the SNP these days, that and Salmond being allowed back in the press to gloat about how it’s all a shambles now he’s not in charge.

SNP have had their time at the top seat and they now need replaced. Most of what they have done has been great, but the last 4 years or so have seen some big issues and not getting them resolved quickly (or letting them happen)…they are too relaxed at being in the top seat now and taken their eye off the ball.

Same with the Tories…

Each party will likely have something or things that appeal to the masses…

The decision to not hit our climate targets has been really poor, considering we seemed to be doing well…

Needs a refresh and a new think at the top.

I wouldn’t have thought Labour actually wants the SNP to leave government at this moment. They don’t want a coalition without an election, and they don’t want an election when they’re not prepared for it.

The Scottish system is a good starting point, but it still needs the push and support (including penalties) from agencies to get people to stop, and it needs to evolve to cope with the way that folks are actually using drugs, and it hasn’t.

I’ve been motivated by this thread to do some proper digging on the stats.  Both ROS and ONS say the Scottish/English data is not directly comparable and requires extreme caution to interpret.  BUT what is interesting is that “drug deaths” is a gross simplification.

We DO count people who die from taking “illegal” drugs – which I guess is what we all expect.  We include in those numbers people who took those drugs with the intention of overdosing.  That’s a relatively small number, but was still somewhat surprising to me.  In Scotland at least the vast majority of the deaths are Heroin related (more accurately Opiod related), not some mix of MDMA/Cocaine.  The deaths correlate very strongly with areas of deprivation.  That last statement is no surprise – but does suggest there won’t be quick fixes either.  If I understood correctly they don’t include deaths caused to others (e.g. if I get high and drive my car into someone else, or if I stab someone in a drugs related crime etc).  What was most surprising though was that the numbers only include deaths which are directly linked to drugs with a fairly immediate nexus between taking the drugs and it leading to death.  If I die at 50 as a result of long term chronic health problems cause or agrivated by drug taking that will NOT be recorded as a drug death.  In that sense both Scottish and English numbers are a significant under reporting.

If there is a difference between policies North and South of the border, then it would actually be interesting to understand the total picture.  Many of the gang related stabbings that england has become infamous for will have a drugs element.    You probably also need to look at other factors – does helping the drugs problem exacerbate alchohol problems?  Does that hurt people other that the “user” too?  Overall the life expectancy numbers suggest Scotland has not succeeded in the big picture so I’m not saying to ignore the drugs numbers but perhaps it gets the wrong emphasis?  Is England “ahead” of Scotland or actually is it behind on the curve and will have its depressing increase in the 2030s as a result of social policies implemented today?  Its too soon to see if the Lord Advocate’s policy of not prosecuting most drug use has an effect – but it is clear that when Scotland took different approaches on knife crime and treated it as a public health issue it has had a very positive effect.  Anyone who thinks punishment is the way to stop Opiod users has clearly never had a serious discussion with someone who injects heroin; just as anyone who thinks it could be sorted in one parliamentary term when the underlying causes have taken decades to establish.

The opposition parties bashing the SNP were also the people who opposed the SNP “named person scheme” which might just, over a generation (not a parliamentary term) have helped some of our most vulnerable children avoid following in their parents footsteps.  Perhaps, like many government policies, it had flaws but sadly the tendency to reject solutions from the majority party for the sake of it is a symptom of parliamentary arithmetic.  Holyrood was designed to have minorities and work on cooperation – perhaps we are heading back towards that.

Reading the headlines this morning it is hard to avoid the conclusion that  Yousaf has rather spectacularly shot himself in the foot.

 In Scotland at least the vast majority of the deaths are Heroin related (more accurately Opiod related), not some mix of MDMA/Cocaine.

and not just Heroin, its benzodiazepines – as you point out lots of the opiate drug death are OTC like pregabalin and diazepam, Scotland has a poly-drug misuse issue. Folks are O/Ding on a mix of drugs.

I see the SNP’s rabidly socialist policy of increasing the top tax rate has resulted in the better off moving south of the border and the overall tax take decreasing.

Taking more money from people who have earned more is a socialist policy that we have seen produce this exact same outcome decade after decade all over the world.

Are the SNP simply ignorant of history, willfully inept, or just unable to break out of the socialist mindset?