My hope is that the local elections will be so disastrous that the clamour for Rishi to put us out of his misery before the summer will be too great.

He can be in California by August.

We are not a major power in any way

Yeah we are.

When @kimbers sticks up that poll showing the Tories being decimated, Is everyone else noticing that the SNP are also on course to lose over 60% of their seats [presumably to Labour] as well?

seems to have flown under the radar

Snp will lose seats for sure.  Labour will be doing very well if theybecome the largest party.  Something i think unlikly .  Uk wide polls are not granular enough to really predict Scotland

Edit:  last time i looked these uk wide polls were showing tories making gains in Scotland.   Unlikely unless the tory/ labour pact is renewed

Just because the economy is doing well, doesn’t mean that the people working in that economy are. There is still a massive cost of living crisis in the US, inflating the markets and increasing gdp isn’t filtering down to the majority who are still struggling to live paycheck to paycheck.

sorry it’s taken me ages to het back to this and it’s probably ror the Trump thread (or starmer thread but might not get part the magic monetary theory police) but i read a blog Noahpinion  (worth checking out)  where he looked into the paycheck to paycheck thing amd it’s a terrible measure

real wages have risen by 20% in the states

but culture wars are setting the narrative mot the economy

i really think this is where we are going with the right in this country

where he looked into the paycheck to paycheck thing amd it’s a terrible measure

The leisure boat market keeps on having buoyant* years, and predicts growth in pretty much every sector. The way living standards are reported is out of whack with the reality of more and more Americans. I heard one commentator sum up the choice between Trump and Biden as:

If you’re on an airplane and the flight attendant offers you a choice between chicken or a shit sandwich topped with broken glass. Your response shouldn’t be “How’s the chicken cooked?”

* sorry/not sorry

The haves and the have yachts?

America’s economy is doing very well but there’s always been the two sides to wealth there.

Massive distributional problems as we know.

This is has been hugely exacerbated by paying interest income to wealthy people.

Many luxury items (such as boats etc) are on big waiting lists.

Go figure – if we’ve got our priorities correct in western economies…

real wages have risen by 20% in the states

That and the graph are setting off my shit statistics alert. Who cares what the mean is or even the median? We want to know what portion of people are struggling. If 10% of people are struggling to eat in the richest country in the world then that’s 30m people who really don’t give a shit how much savings some other people have.

Chris Patten has just murdered the party of which he was Chairman. It’s all in here – the bilge of Brexit, the worst foreign policy error ever made, and the insanity of the right wing cult’s grip on this once great political machine. Pure gold, spread it. pic.twitter.com/wkHnHM4s04

— Brendan May (@bmay) March 21, 2024

All perfectly reasonable.

Unlike most of his party right now.

“Many luxury items (such as boats etc) are on big waiting lists.”

I guess the parties will be targeting floating voters.

So what’s going to happen in London in a few weeks?

polling companies have a big lead for Kahn

but labour apparently very worried by response on the ground U suppose turnout will be key

Labours lead in the London Mayoral polls is pretty much exactly what it is nationally, so I guess its going to be the benchmark. Anything less than a thumping great victory for Khan and the Tories will think they got off lightly.

Up here in Manchester the Tories have thrown in the towel already. Andy Burnham got 67% of the vote last time, so I don’t think they hold out much hope at the moment. At present they don’t even have a candidate as he’s done one to Reform.

I suspect this might well be a recurring theme in the ‘Red Wall’ seats

Anything less than a thumping great victory for Khan and the Tories will think they got off lightly.

The Tories are doing their absolute best to scupper Khan. Changed the voting to FPTP. Winding up the anti-Muslim rhetoric – or at least not acting on third party hate speech. The vile Suzie Hall has been talking total bollocks about ULEZ and spreading disinformation about TfL, low traffic neighbourhoods and other culture war crap.

It’ll be a huge blow to London if the Tories win it.

Khan’s lead in the opinion polls has grown significantly in the last six months. Last September his lead over the Tories was in single figures.

The big difference in London compared to nationally is how much lower Reform UK is polling – about half of what they are nationally. 2% in the last Savanta poll!

The other surprising fact is how close the LibDems and Greens are, when you consider that unlike the LibDems the Greens have never controlled any London boroughs nor had a London MP. The LibDems could end up fourth.

ref Chris Patten interview, what has the country come to when you’re agreeing with someone when 40 years ago you would have ignored.

There is no way Suzie Hall can get elected. She is batshit mental even by current Tory party standards.

what has the country come to when you’re agreeing with someone when 40 years ago you would have ignored.

Damien Green is presently on Any Questions on Radio 4. He refers to himself as a ‘One Nation’ Tory, but listen to his opinions and he’s just voiced strong support for the Rwanda policy, and is one of those demonising people with mental health conditions as slackers, for example. Theres nothing centre ground about that and he’s apparently meant to be one of the ‘liberal’ wing.

That tells you how far we’ve come that someone who calls himself a ‘One Nation’ Tory is parroting lines that pre-2016 would have been the exclusive reserve of Farage and UKIP.

The far right headbangers takeover over the Tory party is now complete

I see that the government has spent the weekend showing its in touch with the concerns of most voters and stressing our shared experiences…

Jeremy Hunt defends ‘£100k isn’t a huge salary’ comments

The chancellor told Sky’s Trevor Phillips on Sunday: “If you’ve got a mortgage and if you’ve got childcare costs, it doesn’t go as far as you might think.”

He’s not wrong – when you’ve made the company you keep several million, £100k suddenly is buttons.

The chancellor told Sky’s Trevor Phillips on Sunday: “If you’ve got a mortgage and if you’ve got childcare costs, it doesn’t go as far as you might think.”

Later adding:

“That’s why we all need these grifting gigs on GB News and to fiddle the **** out of our expenses…”

The chancellor told Sky’s Trevor Phillips on Sunday: “If you’ve got a mortgage and if you’ve got childcare costs, it doesn’t go as far as you might think.”

And who’s fault is that Jeremy?

Nice to see that Rishi and Cleverley have put a lid on the ‘small boats crisis’.

Latest statement in response to small boat crossings

But wait!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c51wqg3x8wno

No doubt this will be nothing to do with them.

And who’s fault is that Jeremy?

I saw that yesterday and immediately thought how refreshing it was to see a tory chancellor admitting their own failure. It’s a interesting political strategy but I doubt it will get the response he thinks.

£100,000 is coincidentally the amount that Jeremy Hunt has given his local Tory Party office to try and retain his seat

Further small boat reporting….

BBC News – Say one thing, do another? The government’s record rise in net migration
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68626430

I’m hearing some ridiculous expectations of interest rates from the Tory advert papers – get ready for 3%.

Yeah not this year. Idiots. You lot took us there. And now we can be thankful you might cut them at some point to higher than where they were?

I can allow them the fact that 100,000 is probably not much in some situations – but then what if you’re on 15k or 20k? What does that say about they way the economy is organised?

Doesn’t matter because BoE *independence* and everything – ‘it’s their fault.’

Economy is a wreck. Serving those with assets.

I heard some of my ‘friends’ call Starmer a communist the other day.  That’s a new one. I think he’s done everything he can to make himself look like Dave Cameron but it still ain’t washing with some work-shy well heeled Tories.

Everything is back to front.

Everything is back to front.

The phone in on Five Live this morning had no shortage of people coming on to say how hard life is when you’re struggling on £100,000+ a year. These people are totally detatched from the reality of what life is like for the majority of voters.

I remember last year there was a bloke who was mocked for moaning on Question Time that he could barely make ends meet on ‘average earnings’. Turns out that he was on £85,000 a year and thats what he thought  ‘average earnings’ were

It goes some way to explaining, when you listen to these sorts of people, why theres a hardcore of 20% of voters who will only ever vote Tory

The MP for betting companies has decided not to wait for the inevitable recall petition success.
So his byelection might now happen on local election day.

At last something vaguely positive from the current UK government – pressure on the United States to stop blocking United Nations resolutions calling for an unconditional and immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/25/the-security-council-vote-is-a-significant-moment-but-the-us-says-its-gaza-policy-is-unchanged

“The US faced a difficult choice, especially since its closest ally the UK was not prepared to abstain. David Cameron, the foreign secretary, could no longer hide his fury at Israel’s prevarication over the supply of aid.”

Obviously, like Israel, the Biden administration will play down the significance of the UN vote, despite spending months determined to stop any meaningful UN resolution, but the UK isn’t having it.

“Biden’s diplomats also surprisingly claim the resolution is non-binding – a judgment not shared by the British, who say it should be implemented immediately. It serves to underline how little the US is in control of events.”

Despite ever growing global isolation Israel will in all likelihood ignore this UN resolution but Cameron has already signalled that the current UK government will consider a ban on export licences to Israel, and presumably further sanctions could be imposed, along with other countries.

On this tragic international issue at least I am starting to have more faith in David Cameron than in David Lammy.

Is that the same David Lammy that’s been calling for UK law to be changed to allow Israeli politicians to be charged with war crimes? When he led an opposition day motion debate in the Commons, Labour MPs backed the call, Conservative MPs did not. And, of course, it was Cameron that introduced those legal protections in the first place.

So the new Susan Hall attack add on Kahn, full on American style; grainy b&w images, American voice over, maximum hyperbole, they even tried to splice in footage of people running from gunfire on the NY subway

Im not sure that we are prepared for the MAGAfication of the Conservatives/reform party

The 100% focus on culture wars is going to divide us like never before

So the new Susan Hall attack add on Kahn, full on American style; grainy b&w images, American voice over, maximum hyperbole, they even tried to splice in footage of people running from gunfire on the NY subway

People have added community notes to the post on Twitter advising of this. It’s horrific – stuff like “since Khan seized control of London…”

Yes, in those democratic elections which you’ve since tried to rig to better favour the Tories…

The depth of my absolute hatred for these lying scum is beyond my ability to express in words.

So the new Susan Hall attack add on Kahn

I am curious where that came from.
The tories seem to have retweeted/linked to it but it isnt marked up as an official ad.
Given the US scenes in it might be from one of their billionaires astroturf organisations which after wrecking their political system have decided to branch out.

Is that the same David Lammy that’s…..

How many David Lammys do you know?

Yes that’s right, I am starting to have more faith in David Cameron as foreign secretary over the issue of Palestine than the foreign secretary in waiting, David Lammy.

We will know soon enough whether I am underestimating Lammy over the issue – the situation in Gaza won’t be resolved by the time Lammy becomes foreign secretary. I sincerely hope that I am.

David Lammy received huge payment from Israeli lobbyist and then abstained from ceasefire vote

Comrade Ernesto – If you’re going to start banging on about your confidence in Dave, do you have an opinion on the man who cosied up to Bejing and was subsequently very highly paid for that, now being (still inexplicably) an invisible Foreign Secretary as the espionage of the Chinese government and their interference in UK democracy is revealed?

Another great move by Rishi there, showing his clueless political instincts. He must surely have known this was in the pipeline?

Yes that’s right, I am starting to have more faith in David Cameron as foreign secretary over the issue of Palestine than the foreign secretary in waiting, David Lammy.

Cameron is actually doing not-a-bad-job as FS, he seems to be taking the job fairly seriously and other countries seem to accept him as a serious person which is considerably more than they did with the last three (James Cleverly, Liz Truss, Dominic “gosh I didn’t know about the English Channel” Raab).

Still, I’m sure he’ll do anything possible to show up the rest of the Cabinet for their incompetence.

Comrade Ernesto – If you’re going to start banging on about your confidence in Dave, do you have an opinion on…..

LOL! How did the remark “At last something vaguely positive from the current UK government – pressure on the United States” become “banging on”???

And my opinion of Austerity Dave? Extremely low. I have never quite understood why Cameron has always been one of the least critised Tory politicians on STW. I have always considered him to a particularly unpleasant Tory whose government was responsible for a great deal of misery. Certainly no better than Rishi Sunak who you ridicule on a daily basis. I guess it is probably down to Cameron’s presentation style, and not much more.

I have never quite understood why Cameron has always been one of the least critised Tory politician on STW.

Everything’s relative, innit? Just look what’s followed him. Its been a downward trajectory ever since, until we’ve ended up with Rishi.

Personally I think history will judge him more harshly than all the clowns that followed him as they all owe their position to him. He was respnsible for the most mind-bendingly stupid policy decision any UK government has ever made and as it all went tits up he just disapeared off whistling a jaunty tune, leaving chaos in his wake. IMHO all the political carnage that has followed can all be laid at his door. Brexit is entirely his fault due to his arrogance and complacency. The fact that the public realm is in tatters is all down to him and Osbourne

He’s an awful lot to answer for and the fact that he’s now Foreign Secretary ‘Lord’ Dave is an insult to us all and only someone as politically clueless as Rishi Sunak could have thought that was a good idea