Who really knows?
The only real data we have is France is planning to lift some restrictions next week (or maybe the week after, I forget) and return to ‘normal’ in early July. I suppose we have to bare in mind that Tourism is a huge Industry for France, it’s the most visited country in the world so they may be painting a rosier picture than most..
Spain and Italy are also starting or planning to lift their restrictions now, they will both likely start on the 4th of May, but no plans for ‘normality’ yet.
It’s all subject to change of course.
Personally I’ve got a Family hols booked in France on the 24th of July for a week, I’m thinking about 75% likely.
We’re also trying to shift flights / accom for the revised Passportes dates at the end of Aug, I’m thinking 95% likely.
The great unknown is the UK, it would be really crass to try to make positives out of numbers of deaths, but revised figures based on when people died rather than when they were reported is showing we’re passed the worst of things.
I wouldn’t personally book anything now unless whoever you’re booking with is going to offer a 100% refund guarantee if you’re not able to go. AirBnB offered one, only we’ve found that once fees and whatnot are taken, you’re lucky to get 50% back (I didn’t book it personally, but that’s my impression).