Pogacar

Road cycling has this weird history fetish that taints these discussions. In pretty much every sport it’s expected that performances improve over time with improved training, equipment, etc. If you look at track cycling or swimming it’s not uncommon to get WRs at major meets, athletics is still seeing records broken and that had a crazy turbo charged era. But in cycling getting better is seen as “wrong”.

Just one article I found. I just wonder if it would change the blood values in a detectable way

It would increase red cell density. Which is very detectable and with all the negative health consequences we saw on the 80s. So not that.

Genuinely I have to ask again: what drug or even what general type of drug would give someone 7w/kg for 20 mins? Which is crazy. But he’s totally open about it – I read the Armstrong comments as “don’t be so flagrant man, hide it”, which is what a doper would do. Also, unlike Armstrong, folks seem to like him. So I think he’s not a doper. Call me naive 

“”knows that he’ll test clean because he is clean.”
passing the tests and being clean are two very different things.”

I’m aware and in my post I went on to say he may well be taking something that is not yet illegal.

But there is also the possibility that he is clean and doing this ride on an amazingly powerful mix of talent, training, schedules and nutrition.

I hope he is clean, and he seems popular in the Peleton, which is normally a good indicator.

 I read the Armstrong comments as “don’t be so flagrant man, hide it”, which is what a doper would do.

Yep, proven (and disgraced) doper wants other people to be proved as dopers. Armstrong is a nasty pos, who shouldn’t be allowed the oxygen of publicity.

Also, unlike Armstrong, folks seem to like him. So I think he’s not a doper. Call me naive

I think one thing we’ve learned is that to be a successful doper you have to be likable.  Or rather, you have to be ‘marketable’.

Once sponsors have a sizeable amount invested in an athlete, and a sport is gaining popularity because of that athlete, then everyone suddenly has a huge incentive to make sure that athlete is ‘clean’ no matter what. This muddies the waters to an incredible extent.

There is only so much WADA can do, particularly if an entire sport has a financial stake in making sure an athlete is protected.

yep – if Pog and to a slightly lesser extent Jonas were exposed as dopers then it would be pretty existential for world cycling in its current form. You’d lose big sponsors overnight, TV coverage would drop off a cliff and whilst you’d still have grand tours they would be much smaller affairs which would start a vicious circle of diminishing sponsorship. To say there is a vested interest in keeping a lid on anything untoward is an understatement.

Lots of things can be true at the same time. For instance I believe that changes in nutrition/ fuelling, aero bikes and kit etc are behind the big increase race speeds in recent years. I think Pog is a generational talent, and also that the GC field isn’t very strong this year. Also all the variables in stage racing can play out such that you can get some pretty striking stage results.

I also think UAE and the rest of them will be doing stuff that’s right on the edge of the rules, maybe not technically doping now but might be soon. Also that doping will always be one step ahead of testing, and there’ll always be someone willing to do it if they think there’s a reasonable chance of getting away with it.

TBH I don’t really know where that leaves me, but I do know I like following it, so *shrugs*.

For a bit of context I’ve been following it since the mid 80s.

It’s ok folks, stand down, just seen something about him using 165 cranks whilst everyone else is on at least 170s and it giving him an advantage

He was toying with everyone up that last climb today. They’re all going absolutely full gas and burning every reserve they have yet he’s holding their wheel looking as relaxed as someone popping to the shop for a pint of milk then when he decides to go no one can live with him.

It was a fairly steady climb for these guys, they were going at speeds where drafting was still significant, so he sat in vingegaard’s wheel and let him burn himself out so he could pounce at the line. He didn’t need to make time on anybody so it was the best tactic.

Not that I am arguing that he is clean, just that yesterday was a pretty obvious tactic and in itself wouldn’t raise any extra  suspicion.

If you look at track cycling or swimming it’s not uncommon to get WRs at major meets, athletics is still seeing records broken and that had a crazy turbo charged era. But in cycling getting better is seen as “wrong”.

Making a big assumption about the prevalence of doping in those sports! I refer you back to the previous post with the peer reviewed paper where when asked anonymously 43% of competitors at the world athletics championship admitted to doping.

I was amused at the end of the ITV highlights yesterday, Gary Imlach managed to drop the word “dose” very frequently in his closing remarks. Was he trying to tell us something?

Just one article I found. I just wonder if it would change the blood values in a detectable way

most recent publication, not in elite athletes, shows 5% improvement in VO2 max. At an elite level the gains will be smaller but non-zero. Earlier studies were less convincing.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32118696/

I’d expect a threshold for COHb to follow. Which could make smoking a challenge. Chronic smokers have increased Hb levels for the same reason.

That was very impressive

Been a bonkers one. Pogacar owned it. Looking forward to next year if Vingegaard comes back stronger.

drafting was still significant,

No drafting today. Smashed everyone. Every other rider looking absolutely burst at the finish line, Pog barely breaking a sweat.

Over the last 10 years the average time gap between 1st and 10th has been 16 minutes with a range between 7 and 26 minutes. 10th place is currently sitting at 22 minutes, it’s hardly suggesting they are way ahead of everyone else compared to history.

10th is now 29 minutes. 4th is 19 minutes. 4th!

That’s immediately after winning the Giro with the biggest margin since 1965.

Not to mention winning single day races going solo from nearly 100km out.

25 years old and he’s placed 1st three times, and 2nd twice.

Outrageous

In 105 stages of the tdf he has been on the podium in one of the jerseys for 100 of them……

He’s in joint 8th place for most stage wins in the Tdf. He has 5 more stages than Peter Sagan.

Lance Armstrong would’ve pushed him down to 9th if he hadn’t have been removed from the list, but he’s only 5 stages behind, and Lance didn’t start his total domination until he was 27 year old.

Tadej, of course, was the youngest winner of the GC since 1904 (and that win was only awarded because 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th were all disqualified for cheating).

Pulled out of the Olympics due to fatigue, which I can understand, but is he going for the Vuelta too?

Although the unkind side of me first thought, “oh really, what’s the real reason?”  Which given he’s knocked his pan in for 3 weeks is unkind/unfair.

No he’s not doing the Vuelta (his own words)…. he’s targeting the world championship.

In 105 stages of the tdf he has been on the podium in one of the jerseys for 100 of them……

how many if you ignore the white jersey? Nowadays it’s a bit of a historical oddity.
back when you became a GC contender by winning other races (which took a few years), it made sense to highlight some up and coming youngsters.
now when riders are selected and groomed based on their power and Vo2 data, being young seems like an odd thing to select on. A bit like having a 75kg+ KOM jersey… nobody really cares.

White jersey should be competed for by those in their first Grand tour. Ridiculous having the same guy in white and yellow for 5 years.

A 95kg+ KOM jersey would be more impressive

Yes if you take out white he’s only had 40 YJs – still not bad for a 25 yr old. I didn’t realise he didn’t get a single YJ last year despite winning 2 stages and coming 2nd. He’s 6th overall for YJs….so far.

Agreed white jersey should either be 1st TdF or maybe even something like 1st none podium finisher…..

Although next year could be interesting. Evenpoel I believe is ineligible. Not sure who the obvious contenders would be. It’d be hilarious if all of a sudden it was someone in about 20th on GC.

In 105 stages of the tdf he has been on the podium in one of the jerseys for 100 of them……

I thought they said 85 on ITV4?

maybe even something like 1st none podium finisher

You mean 4th?

It not all about the winning though, it’s about who’s having the most fun.

Tadej Pogacar was having the most fun whilst touring the France.

Yep, I like him and he comes across better than most cyclists/sports people.  Maybe that is why ‘they’ are making sure he wins – makes you think eh 🙂

TDF has taken a bit out of him though 🙁

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/articles/ckvg09p909eo

Vuelta instead?

I think in recent years the TdF have been designing the courses for the main GC contenders. Certainly seems much more big mountain stages than there used to be, time trial days have become less significant, especially making them hilly.

It would be interesting seeing the average height gain of the tours and comparing them to different eras.

Vuelta instead?

I think he has already ruled that out, however I wouldn’t be shocked if he did try and win all 3, things can change fast, this may be his year to really cement his name in history.

I think Pog’s withdrawal from the Olympics is more a thinly veiled way of trying to stick it to the Slovenian Olympic Committee for not selecting Urska Zigart.

I can’t see him going for the Vuelta if it puts his shot at the rainbow jersey in doubt.

As a fan, I’d much rather see him go for the Vuelta than the traditional triple crown of Giro, TdF & World Champs.

Just because it’s not normally possible, but then with a lack of other GC superstars in the current field, maybe he could win it even if he’s a way off his best?

Also, unlike Armstrong, folks seem to like him. So I think he’s not a doper. Call me naive 

No, that’s wrong – while he was riding almost nobody spoke out against Armstrong, except Bassons, that French rider who didn’t actually direct his comments about doping at Armstrong but at the whole peloton, and was bullied out by Armstrong. It looked like everybody wanted to be matey with LA, celebs wanted to spend time with him and Hollywood stars, musicians, politicians were spotted at the TdF to a far greater extent than these days just to bask in his celebrity. Commentators and journalists fawned over him, Phil Liggett fairly disgustingly so. Nobody even breathed the word ‘doping’ about him and nobody had a bad word to say about him in public.

And yes, the overall situation then seems replicated these days. Record speeds, riders doing superhuman things, heavy riders winning on big climbs, previous winners looking very average as no-name domestiques pedal past them – this last bit mentioned by quite a few riders of the time who couldn’t work out what the new class of dope was.

No, that’s wrong – while he was riding almost nobody spoke out against Armstrong, except Bassons,

Well, there were the books (Walsh eg) , the newspaper articles (l’Equipe, Walsh again) , the personal recollections (Emma O-Reilly, edit: Andreu) and others condemning him (Lemond) .

So the body of evidence was large, even if we chose to ignore or excuse it.

I don’t see the same now.

This peice by Joe Lyndsey has some good discussions about the shortcomings of all the theories behind why Pogačar was so much better than everyone else:

https://escapecollective.com/opinion-we-cant-yet-explain-tadej-pogacars-sudden-leap/

Well, there were the books (Walsh eg) , the newspaper articles (l’Equipe, Walsh again) , the personal recollections (Emma O-Reilly, edit: Andreu) and others condemning him (Lemond) .

That mainly came later, not so much during his first 5 wins. Walsh WAS one of the few dissenting voice but didn’t make much headway. Along with Kimmage, he tended to get shouted down by the huge mass of Armstrong supporters. O’Reilly, Andreu, et al didn’t really openly criticise him until forced to, but there were murmurings if you were able to read between the lines.

Don’t forget I was responding to someone saying that nobody liked him and my point is that wasn’t the public image that was shown at the time.