Pogacar

I’ve been reading a french website that analyses cycling performances in great depth and then points out the ones that look suspicious.

They say that in the EPO bad days there were loads of records for outstanding performances set by doped riders. In the 2010 to 2019 era none of these records were broken. If Froome, Wiggins, Bernal etc. were on anything it obviously wasn’t very good.

Suddenly from 2020 loads of the old records from the EPO era started being not just broken, but completely destroyed.

https://www.cyclisme-dopage.com/actualite/2024-07-15-cyclisme-dopage-com2c.htm

Mitch Docker talked on some podcast episodes about the change in training that happened around 2020 and how racing got dramatically harder. I think it probably coincided with modern sports nutrition and changes in training methodology (more low intensity training and smaller amounts of very high intensity work).

I don’t race, but I feel like my local road chain gangs have got dramatically faster too: I think bikes have improved more than people give credit for. I don’t think there’s much new doping going on amongst the chain gang lot either, fwiw – it’s just that bit easier to ride faster than it was 10 or 15 years ago.

Suddenly from 2020 loads of the old records from the EPO era started being not just broken, but completely destroyed.

COVID vaccines gave everyone superhuman abilities, innit.

Agree tech advances over recent years have been pretty major, especially aero stuff and wider tyres! Has much more of an effect at the speed the pros ride.

They say that in the EPO bad days there were loads of records for outstanding performances set by doped riders. In the 2010 to 2019 era none of these records were broken. If Froome, Wiggins, Bernal etc. were on anything it obviously wasn’t very good.

SKY not renowned for being remotely interested in beating records or even riding up a mountain faster than they need to to strangle the life out of the race. Typically they were the only team left with any quantity of domestiques so could just tap away at a pace.

Rewatch Sundays climb. Jumbos first man comes onto the climb flat out and hands over to Jorgenson who burys himself for as long as possible then Pogs last domestique does the same until 5km to go.

There are a good few people here who my Nigerian friend, the prince, would be really interested in establishing a business relationship with.  Damn – where are the emojis when you need them to demonstrate you are not entirely serious <winky face>!

Let’s not forget that although the name of these teams changes as the sponsors come and go, the management can and does stay the same . The management of UAE , for example , have previous for doping offences.

As I said in the other thread , the Giro was made a mockery of and was boring. The same is happening in France and I have stopped watching this year’s race.

I hope I am wrong but will not be surprised to proven otherwise.

I’m sorry, but after today’s stage I’m finding it increasingly difficult to not be suspicious. The way he just rode past world class climbers as if they were stationary is getting too good to be true. Assuming that all the teams are using the best sport science to train and fuel properly both in the race and away fro the race then how can someone be that much better day after day and not blow up.

I’m sorry, but after today’s stage I’m finding it increasingly difficult to not be suspicious.

+1. I’ve given up on watching it.

If he were doping why would he thrash everyone by such a huge margin?

If he weren’t doping how would he be so much better than everyone else? It’s not even close.

And to be so good at so many different types of racing makes me really suspicious. Classics, monuments and GT.

“Pogačar on Isola 2000 averaged 6.83 ᵉW/Kg for 37:44 min and 7.21 ᵉW/Kg normalized for sea level. Despite it being at a high altitude, Pogačar’s raw ᵉW/Kg numbers still are incredible, and he did the second-greatest climbing performance of all time, losing only to his Stage 15 performance on Plateau de Beille. Evenepoel with Vingegaard on his wheel did 6.42 ᵉW/Kg for 39:26 min.

Adam Yates in the first 17:06 min averaged 6.96 ᵉW/Kg, while Pogačar, Vingegaard, Almeida and Evenepoel in the draft pushed 6.75 ᵉW/Kg. After Pogačar attacked, he did 7.00 ᵉW/Kg for 20:38 min. Evenepoel and Vingegaard slowed down with 6.22 ᵉW/Kg and 6.03 ᵉW/Kg in the second part of the climb, showing how much better the Slovenian superstar was, pushing almost 1 ᵉW/Kg more than Vingegaard in the final part.”

Second Greatest Performance Of All-Time By Pogačar | Tour de France 2024 Stage 19

Pogacar was reprimanded by none other than Lance Armstrong.

“It was really unnecessary to attack like that,” Armstrong said on his podcast. “This will only draw more attention to Pogacar. If there’s already speculation about his performance, this certainly doesn’t help

Or he’s pushing huge numbers and taking time because he can and knows that he’ll test clean because he is clean.

As I said before I believe they are all doing things that aren’t illegal (yet) on top of being freakishly adapted to be elite cyclists.

It really is ridiculous now,  they must have something near undetectable to cause the results they have.

Or because he knows his team knows how to hide it…

I’m sorry, but after today’s stage I’m finding it increasingly difficult to not be suspicious.

He’s done it every race he’s ridden this year, and plenty in the years prior. It’s hard to buy into the idea that it’s down to nutrition and technology when 4th place in the GC is over 15 minutes back. 2nd and 3rd are also ‘once in a generation’ wonders, smashing records themselves.

It was considered for a long time that because of the specialisation and alignment in training and technology, there never could be another Merckx. Yet Pogacar has already gone well beyond what Armstrong and Pantani were doing, and well into Merckx territory.

I’ve said it loads of times, I’m quite enjoying the spectacle. Good or bad, we’re witnessing an historic moment, and it makes for some utterly bonkers racing. But you have to ask the question, how? How is it even possible? What’s changed?

Been reading about the use of cobalt salts and carbon monoxide inducing near epo effects on erythropoesis.

But unsure how this would remain hidden in the whole blood tests.

The cobalt salts are apparently undetectable and the teams have said they are using carbon monoxide

Not sure on the cobalt salts, but there’s been lots of media confusion about the carbon monoxide use.

What the teams have admitted to using is a carbon monoxide rebreather, which is a way of measuring haemoglobin mass (i.e. quantifying the effect of altitude training etc.). Using carbon monoxide as an ergogenic aid is different and would require quite frequent inhalation of a CO dose over a fairly extended period. I imagine CO therapy will be banned soon, but the CO rebreathers probably not.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30110719/

Just one article I found.  I just wonder if it would change the blood values in a detectable way

when 4th place in the GC is over 15 minutes back. 2nd and 3rd are also ‘once in a generation’ wonders, smashing records themselves.

2nd place was in intensive care a few months back, 3rd place has little track record in GTs and is only in his 1st TdF, 4th place is a support rider. The other major challenger has withdrawn injured and there’s a bunch of people I’ll or recovering from injuries.

Last year we were using Pogacars performance to justify the Vingagard was juiced now it’s vice versa. He was a clear favourite coming in and the result is beating that out. We’re in an era where there are some really good one day racers about and riders who are competitive in one week races but there is a dearth of good GT riders.

Last year we were using Pogacars performance to justify the Vingagard was juiced now it’s vice versa.

Both of them are producing performances well beyond what we’ve seen in the modern era.

2nd place was in intensive care a few months back

Which is more reason to raise an eyebrow.

3rd place has little track record in GTs and is only in his 1st TdF

Yet is producing performances on climbs better than anybody in the history of the TdF before him, albeit slightly behind 1st and 2nd. This is the guy that was consistently getting dropped by domestiques a couple of weeks prior in the Dauphine.

The numbers don’t lie. There are several former grand tour winners in the peloton. These 3 are way ahead because they’re riding faster than anyone in the history of the sport. These margins of winning simply haven’t happened in the modern era. You can argue that we suddenly have an influx of super talented individuals, or that they’ve uncovered new training techniques, but you cannot argue that it’s normal or due to a lack of competition, because that’s simply not true.

It’s just surprising to see the one day racer is also breaking records on mountain climbs. I’ve never seen any GT racer be that good in February, March classics. To win sprints or to do 60 mile solo breaks.

Irrespective of the injuries or the other competitors, it’s the numbers that are out of this world.

Personally I don’t mind. I think it’s fair to say if he is juicing he won’t be the only one.

Nils Politt the wonder climber is probably more suspicious.

knows that he’ll test clean because he is clean.

passing the tests and being clean are two very different things. Also the testing only tests for what it knows about and has developed a reliable test to for. That always the problem with doping control

Over the last 10 years the average time gap between 1st and 10th has been 16 minutes with a range between 7 and 26 minutes. 10th place is currently sitting at 22 minutes, it’s hardly suggesting they are way ahead of everyone else compared to history.

The time separation isn’t anywhere near as eye opening as the alleged W/kg values being put around.

As has been said,  super human,  on another planet,  unreal…..

Cavs record won’t last very long at this rate!

But up there the shock was the comparison to the other riders, the data suggests that they’re not that different to usual in terms of difference to other riders.

If the time difference is comparable then an increase in power is being replicated proportionally across the peloton (we aren’t seeing lots of riders missing the cut) so the implication now is that everyone is juicing to hold position?

I don’t doubt significantly funded squads are identifying and using techniques that sail close to the edge and might in time be banned but that’s not the same as doping.

These margins of winning simply haven’t happened in the modern era.

I mean, he won by what, 1:40 today? Froome won that stage in 2015 by similar (with similar doping accusations afterwards). There just doesn’t seem to be a huge depth of GC contenders this year. Outside the top three, most of the top ten are domestiques. Mas, Betnal, Thomas have all been up there regularly in recent years, but are literally nowhere this year. Similar for Bardet….Simon Yates, Handley, Carapaz….most of those haven’t even featured as also rans on GC.

It does look like 10th place on GC could be almost 30 mins down by the finish, which is a larger gap than the usual 20ish I suppose.

It’s just surprising to see the one day racer is also breaking records on mountain climbs. I’ve never seen any GT racer be that good in February, March classics. To win sprints or to do 60 mile solo breaks.

This argues against Pog doping with anything special, as there is surely no PED that can give you this performance if you’re not already the greatest cyclist ever seen.

No one would argue that UAE are clean given the Leadership, and Pog is likely engaged in garden variety doping like everyone else, but it’s also likely that Pog is just the GoaT. Micro-dosing EPO + blood doping + whatever doesn’t give you a Pog.

The GOAT, better than Merckx, Big Mig, Armstrong? Call me sceptical…..

Turning Polit into an 80kg climbing god is a little bit too much. He was always an average breakaway rider who couldn’t really climb. Lots of raw power on flatter stages, but his transformation to me is quite startling. But he’s 6 feet 3 and at least 80kgs.

We’re all entitled to our opinion. I’m not going to be swayed…..too old and long in the tooth to believe in miracles.

I’ve never seen any GT racer be that good in February, March classics. To win sprints or to do 60 mile solo breaks.

Merckx and a few others around that time did but that was quite a long time ago and who knows what they may have been using or not.  Maybe it was the steaks they ate for breakfast.

The GOAT, better than Merckx, Big Mig, Armstrong? Call me sceptical…..

Well there always has to be someone who is better than those before them.  If everyone was worse than the riders from 20+ years ago that would be odd wouldnt it?

This argues against Pog doping with anything special, as there is surely no PED that can give you this performance if you’re not already the greatest cyclist ever seen.

No it doesn’t. Pog probably is the greatest cyclist but that doesn’t exclude doping. If you think merx and co weren’t on something as well then that’s just naive.

Pog dominates this year, vinagard last year, I would be very very surprised if they’re not both (and the rest of the top ten) on some cocktail of stuff. I mean as far as I know micro dosing if done properly still can’t be detected so meh. I don’t really care, I like pog and I have no problem with him dominating – I was cheering him on.

If you think merx and co weren’t on something as well then that’s just naive.

I think it is pretty well documented that they were and Merckx was caught 3 times.

Personally the only thing that explains Pogis performance is genetics. In Michael Hutchinsons book he says that there are 20 (approx) genes that are linked to superior athletic ability and the highest (so far) detected in one human is 11. Pogi must have more.

The GOAT, better than Merckx, Big Mig, Armstrong? Call me sceptical…..

Not better than Merckx, Merckx was winning races week in week out and on the track as well. Pog and most top rides have a much lighter schedule, one of the reasons racing is faster – the amount or racing is less for the top riders and training more focused.

How many other teams spent time targetting yesterday’s stage like UAE? Repeated ascents between the Giro & Tour, with the whole team aware of the plan. Add the quality of those riders supporting Pog, and you’ve got a huge disparity with smaller teams.
It’s the first Tour for the rider in 3rd, who’s not really a climbing specialist; it’s the first Tour for the rider in 2nd who was on life support 3 months ago. That explains a lot, when in context.
But, it’s cycle racing, so nothing would suprise as history supports.

If you think merx and co weren’t on something as well then that’s just naive.

Personally I do not believe there has ever been a clean TDF winner.  sometimes they get caught, sometimes they are ahead of the testers and rules,

Personally the only thing that explains Pogis performance is genetics.

It’s more likely the combination of genetics and modern, optimised training, nutrition, equipment etc. People seem to have this idea that all elite cyclists are roughly equal, so any big differences must come down to some sort of doping programme, but that’s a naive over simplification which completely ignores genetic differences.

I always think back to a fascinating documentary about Colin Jackson, the astonishingly fast 110m hurdler. It looked at whether he was physiologically gifted and analysed all sorts of stuff. There was nothing extraordinary about him untll they analysed a core sample from his quad and found he had an incredibly rate fast twitch muscle fibre that simply meant his muscles could contract faster than other people’s.

Obviously he also had great technique, motivation and the ability to execute under pressure, but right at the core of it all, he was also naturally gifted.

It doesn’t of course mean that Pogacar isn’t doping, of course he could be, but the idea that he must be, is maybe a little blinkered. Bear in mind too, that there may be lots of other Pogs out there, who’ve never been ‘discovered’ and are sat right now watching TV and doing the odd annoyingly fast park run that bears no relation to their general activity levels.

As an adjunct to all this, you have to wonder if the future of doping is DNA manipulation.

People seem to have this idea that all elite cyclists are roughly equal, so any big differences must come down to some sort of doping programme, but that’s a naive over simplification which completely ignores genetic differences.

The problem is that all professional cyclists are all already going to be the people at the tip of the genetic potential bell curve.

The current (and relatively sudden increase in) W/kg performances suggests that the bell curve has recently shifted somehow.

I think comparisons with 30 year old performances doesn’t really tell us much.  And in terms of performance improvements, I can see training and recovery protocols allowing more consistent performances across a Grand Tour or even at the end of a particularly grueling stage.

The one stand out for me is the raw W/kg number.  There is a physiological limit that has suddenly been smashed, and not just by Pog.  These are the numbers that are screaming out ‘dodgy’ to me.