Pogacar

Anyone else watching the giro & tour looking at Pogacar and thinking we have gone back to the time of Armstrong?

The way he seems to pull away from everyone else just seems a bit ‘off’! He broke away yesterday and was pushing away in a big 53 tooth ring gapping JV on 9% slope still nose breathing.

I get the fact that times are changed zone 2 loads of carbs etc but is he drinking  “juice” thats a bit stronger than orange juice?

He finished yesterday I think 3 minutes and 9 seconds ahead of 2nd place.

That is quite a gap especially on some of the hills, not hills mountains, I think the gap to 4th place was near 10minutes

No

He finished yesterday I think 3 minutes and 9 seconds ahead of 2nd place.

No he didn’t.

I think the gap to 4th place was near 10minutes

No it wasn’t . These things are incredibly easy to check! It is indicative of the level of discussion you can expect around these things though. Don’t let the truth get in the way of a good internet pile on!

I’ve contributed to the TdF thread intimating similar.

Tbh, there are athletes across a bunch of cycling disciplines able to ride away from a field of elite professionals with impunity. Cyclo cross, XC MTB and tour mountain stage races. They do it slightly differently to a previous notable generation but it’s very hard not to draw the odd comparison.

I think I’m now of the don’t give too many **** attitude to it. Yes, it’s exciting to watch superhuman performances; but yes in time it’ll yet a touch tiresome too. I’m going to watch as and when as an entertainment, superficially impressed. But it’s not my first rodeo and I’ll not be too surprised if the hood is taken off in years to come and all isn’t quite as it seems.

It’s not unique to cycling. My social media reminded me this morning that of the 30 best 100m sprint times in history, 21 are now suspected to have been enhanced. The other 9 are by one man. You take that statistic and decide what it means to you. Opinions will vary.

All we need is for there to be a Floyd Landis moment before the race finishes!

I doubt it, though I believed Armstrong was drug free when the allegations started. I dont think Pog is that far above his rivals, but it is the rivals who are not performing as well as they can this year. Vingegaard was expected to win easily until he had his bad accident earlier this year, that he is even competing is amazing, and to stay within 2 minutes of the Leader even more so. None of the other team Leaders are showing they can keep up with them, Roglic is missing from the tour after his crash, but he didnt show he was superior to Pogacar in the stages he was in ,but, the more difficult days hadnt started when he pulled out, he may have been able to match Pog in the pyrenees, showing that Pog is good, but not super human, which is what was being said of Vingegard last year.
With manufactured synthetic performance enhancers, who knows if those at the top are taking them? I’d expect them to be as close to the doping limits as they can get, I was quite astounded 20+ years ago when it was said openly that riders were having IV infusions (legal apparently) as they could not take in enough nutrients naturally when racing the tour. That is only one step away from changing the blood completely, which is what they were allegedly (proven?) to be doing in the late 90’s/early 00’s.

Yes, it’s exciting to watch superhuman performances; but yes in time it’ll yet a touch tiresome too.

This year’s Giro was the most boring stage race I’ve watched in years, and this TdF is shaping up the same way. When will Pog attack (whatever the parcours), how many riders will he pass before he wins, oh look a sprint as a 30 second distraction. There was a time when the GC race would happen on mountains behind the race for the actual stage, which was fought out between other riders. Recently it’s one or two riders dominating absolutely everything so there’s not even anyone else to talk about – they all stagger across the line behind Pog.

@tom-b according to https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings , under general ranking J. VINGEGAARD  is now 3 minutes 9seconds behind T. POGACAR.

I meant in the race as a whole

#Bless

it did all look amazingly easy for Pog but maybe he’s just very good and his rivals are out of form, very hard to compare.

I choose the enjoy the sport and athletic brilliance without judgement. Maybe sometime in the future it will come crashing down but I think to watch through a lens of cynicism would be a miserable place to be. For now, it’s just brilliant racing.

For now, I simply think/hope that the pandemic start took training and race performances to another level, while the race calendar was reduced.

Well seeing that stage as a one-off you might think he looked “not normal”, but Pog didn’t win the TdF the last couple of years – so that kind of sinks the theory, eh?

And since there’s zero evidence or even whispers from his peers, I think you have to consider that he’s just a generational talent who can beat anyone in the world on one of his many good days.

This  article came out last week – perfect timing!

Exclusive: Tour riders are inhaling carbon monoxide to optimise altitude training – Escape Collective

so that kind of sinks the theory, eh?

The absolute opposite for me I’m afraid.

And IF he is, he certainly won’t be alone.

I agree with Frank ^

I’m watching and enjoying the spectacle :o)

Only time will tell if they are ‘pulling a fast one’ I REALLY hope not.

Nope, Pogačar is a very, very good athlete on his day. He’s been beaten in this Tour by a guy who was in intensive care 3 months ago, so maybe the margin isn’t that incredible. And as Vingegaard reminded everyone yesterday after the stage, Pog is just a bad day away from being caught – and it’s happened before. I don’t think he will, but that’s the fun.

If you look at the leaders of the other teams, there is no one there with the palmares that suggest they should be able to challenge the top 3. So it’s no surprise that the podium is looking the way it is. The record on that final climb yesterday had been held by Pantani for 27 years. Since that time, nutrition has improved, training has become much more scientific, kit has got much better, team strategies have improved. So it’s no surprise either that the record should have fallen. But 3′ 44″ is a lot of time…

But since everyone took drugs back in the day, surly the smart drug takers will now make sure they finish 1 second ahead, rather than a few minutes ahead?

If you are going to cheat these days you may as well cheat well rather than making it obvious.

The record on that final climb yesterday had been held by Pantani for 27 years. Since that time, nutrition has improved, training has become much more scientific, kit has got much better, team strategies have improved

These things haven’t only just happened, they’ve been developed over the last few decades, so the fact that records aren’t being broken – smashed even – until now suggests that some major change has happened recently.

But 3′ 44″ is a lot of time…

….to improve upon an athlete that was using EPO in predigious quantities to achieve that time as there were no tests in place so it was a virtual free for all.

I do need to watch the ’98 stage though – must be on you tube somewhere. The way it was ridden will make a massive difference. I know he was desperate to take as much time as possible from Ulrich (who was also known to be juiced) because Pantani was a useless time trailer and would need a good buffer but no idea how far from the bottom the fireworks started. Could explain a lot.

Thinking back – that ’98 tour was a shocker. Must have been a hideous time to be a domestique, told to do stuff or you’d be sacked and police raiding your hotel etc.

If you look at the leaders of the other teams, there is no one there with the palmares that suggest they should be able to challenge the top 3. So it’s no surprise that the podium is looking the way it is.

Yep, there’s nobody that we’d expect to be competing with Pog or Vingy anyway.

Remco did bloody well though.

The absolute opposite for me I’m afraid.

Can you explain how? You reckon he’s only got on the juice this year?

Will you change your mind if he has a bad day and cracks?

There’s a good reason why BikeRadar and cycling news limited doping talk to a specific section. You can’t prove a negative, and the hyperbolic claims that always ensue really ruin discussions. Maybe this can be the doping thread, and we can just crack on talking mainly about Cav on the main thread ?

The record on that final climb yesterday had been held by Pantani for 27 years. Since that time, nutrition has improved, training has become much more scientific, kit has got much better, team strategies have improved. So it’s no surprise either that the record should have fallen.

But in 1997 the entire peleton was ripped to the tits on every performance enhancer they could get their hands on. Pantani, Ulrich, Jalabert, Zabel, Cipollini (and many others) all confirmed to have been on EPO in the 98 tour, and no doubt earlier.

Personally I am highly sceptical of the idea that clean riders now should be expected to beat doped-up riders, even if nutrition is better now.

Either way though, it seems top riders now have to do what a lay person would consider doping-adjacent, even if it doesn’t technically overstep the current regulations. Which has taken a lot of the fun out of it for me.

In the past i was a bit ambivalent thinking he may have been a good ince in a generation athlete. But by now im starting to think something smells fishy its just the sheer dominance where he is attacking all day then he repeats it and the fact that he dosent seem to be putting massive efforts into it!

The fact that some of the teammanagement etc have some pretty dodgy history os also afding to my concerns but that is just a generational thing all the guys of late 90’s early 00 were doing the dirty to survive.

obviously if he is juiced to the gills he still needs to put in the work and still a awesome athletic endeavour

If any performance has been suspicious it was Vingegaard’s time trial from last year.

Can you explain how? You reckon he’s only got on the juice this year?

Scenario 1 – man is genetically and mentally the best athlete of his generation. Once at the top whilst at his peak and barring injury he maintains his performance advantage tour after tour.

Scenario 2 – man (and team) come up with a cunning plan that gives him an advantage and it only flipping works! After a couple of years the other athletes figure it out and the advantage disappears. Then he has another cunning plan.

Scenario 3 – man (and team) come up with a cunning plan that gives him an advantage and it only flipping works! As his plan is not strictly kosher he hears rumour people are on to him so he dails it back a bit for a couple of years. Then he has another cunning plan.

Will you change your mind if he has a bad day and cracks

As I said in my original post, I’m trying not to think about it and just taking it at face value. But as someone who was racing through the dark days (at a pretty lowly cat 1/2 level, and still got offered stuff from a now well known ex pro) I’m pretty cynical and nothing would surprise me.

But for the moment, epic performances make good TV – until they don’t and become boring.

Legal, or for want of a better term, not yet illegal performance enhancers is where it’s at. The UCI won’t know they even exist yet. By the time they do these multi million euro teams will have moved on to the next ‘legal’ performance enhancer. Be interested to know how much of their budget goes on R&D, and I don’t mean wind tunnel testing!

I think the formula to be a successful doper is fairly well established.  First, you need something to make you bulletproof.  In Armstrong’s case this was cancer.  His story was just too ‘inspriring’ for there to be any kind of scandal.

If you look at other sports, it’s not often you get superhuman performers who are also arseholes (or rather, have a public perception of being an arsehole).  Often they have carefully curated images that make them popular and, crucially, very attractive to sponsors.  Once you have a lot of money invested in you then it’s in everyone’s interest to make sure you are always seen as ‘clean’.

Then there has to be a ‘factor’ that explains the improved performance.  Often there is a degree of truth to it, eg, Armstrong’s high cadence.  It’s true, the high cadence helped him but only because it allowed the EPO to work more effectively.

I wonder if all the current hand waiving about improved carb intake is somehow close to the truth for the current performances, assuming there is something else going on.

It certainly seems strange that we’ve suddenly developed the ability to double the amount of carbs a rider can take in over the course of a stage.

The record on that final climb yesterday had been held by Pantani for 27 years. Since that time, nutrition has improved, training has become much more scientific, kit has got much better, team strategies have improved
These things haven’t only just happened, they’ve been developed over the last few decades, so the fact that records aren’t being broken – smashed even – until now suggests that some major change has happened recently.

They have been though. Records on climbs fall every year and the same comments come up. This climb may not have been used for 27 years. Also he had the best leadout up it ever. Jumbo pulling like crazy into the bottom then Jorgenson going all in then Jonas going all in until he was almost at a standstill. Also a tailwind. Not having a clue how Pantani road it it’s likely it watsn’t in that manner. My guess would be he went solo a lot earlier because he could.

This climb may not have been used for 27 years

Pantani’s tour was the first. This was its 6th time as a finish – ie. It’s been ridden to a finish 4 times within the 27 years.

Scenario 3 – man (and team) come up with a cunning plan that gives him an advantage and it only flipping works! As his plan is not strictly kosher he hears rumour people are on to him so he dails it back a bit for a couple of years. Then he has another cunning plan.

If you’re suggesting this is Pog’s story, then all I can do is point out that conspiracy theories can be twisted to fit any twists and turns in a narrative.

Personally I just think the GC field just doesn’t have much depth at the same time as possibly the best racer of all time has come along.

Personally I am highly sceptical of the idea that clean riders now should be expected to beat doped-up riders, even if nutrition is better now.

All depends how much the doping of choice at the time helped, i.e. did it make them 5 minutes quicker up a 30 minute climb or did it make them 60 seconds quicker.  If the former then yes questionable, if the latter then within realms of possibility.

I personally think the TT that Jonas produced last year was more suspicious than anything pog has done this year. But saying that, I don’t think either are doping.

So I looked for a video.

First 10 minutes of climb is steady as Ullrich leading had had an issue so is chasing back on. 12:30 Pantani goes solo and catches and passes whoever was left out in front.

46:55 wins stage solo.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/1998/stage-11

If you’re suggesting this is Pog’s story, then all I can do is point out that conspiracy theories can be twisted to fit any twists and turns in a narrative.

Not suggesting that at all. I’m just saying that I find exceptional performance with significant dips (be they mid tour or season to season) more eye brow rasing that consistency. And scenarios 2 and 3 are historic reasons why.

Pantani’s tour was the first. This was its 6th time as a finish – ie. It’s been ridden to a finish 4 times within the 27 years.

Yeah but as I said on the main TdF thread, it depends how it gets raced, the weather conditions as well as where in the stage and the overall race it comes, what the previous terrain was (cos it’s not always the same complete route) and the tactics required.

Pacing steadily up it to maintain a lead is different to a full attacking ride.

Absolutely. And I think you’d be daft to point to one stage on one tour and say the whole thing is a house of cards.

Stage average speeds have been going up and that’s been used (maybe even by you) as a rational as to why this is not so unreasonable. But if you are old enough to think back, the very same phenomenon (average speeds going up markedly and then slowing after the doping scandal years) to indicate the situation was not all fine.

This climb may not have been used for 27 years
Pantani’s tour was the first. This was its 6th time as a finish – ie. It’s been ridden to a finish 4 times within the 27 years.

Looking at the last 2 it was won by the breakaway.

2011 the Schlecks wern’t known for attacking especially if Frank couldn’t follow Andy so they were probably at a stalemate with Cadel Evans.

2015 Froome and SKY wern’t in the business of winning with style. Stalemate.

2 earlier ones Lance won and he was similar to Froome. Win but only by enough to crush Ullrichs soul.

Not suprising that someone with that ability and that leadout would chop a huge chunk off the time.

This is being discussed a bit on the TdF thread.

My personal opinion is that Pog hasn’t had the type of injuries that Remco and Jonas (even a few tumbles by Rog) have experienced. Pog has the absolute best team for this tour that I’ve seen for many a year. UAE has so much more money than the other teams can only dream off. Also Pog is probably this ‘once in a generation type athlete’ who’s found the correct sport for him. At least I’m hoping he’s clean.

Just don’t want Pog to break Sir Cav’s record in the near future.