Viewing 40 posts - 4,681 through 4,720 (of 12,715 total)
  • Osbourne says no to currency union.
  • gordimhor
    Full Member

    I should add that a vote for Yes is not a vote for the SNP in perpetuity.

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    hels – Member
    Why does the SNP favour the pound, out of curiosity”[

    Because like most rational people they recognise that full independence is not in anyone’s interests. This way you can duck that central lie.

    The biggest negativity is the remarkable re-writing of the UK history – the extraordinary success that the UK has had over sustained periods of success and adversity. The RoW looks at this debate with incredulity. How bloody foolhardy! And to replace a currency union (as part of a wider union with fiscal union) that already works with one that doesn’t. Turkey’s and Christmas!

    Just had lunch with two Edinburgh friends – both find the whole debate utterly depressin. One v senior in fin services ready with obvious contingency plan come the 19th if required. Kids already in education down south, work already has offices ready in London. They just hope that most people continue “to see sense” as the polls indicate just!

    hels
    Free Member

    Sure, but if the UK gov is an unwilling partner in this theoretical currency union proposed, has anybody looked properly at any other options ?

    Genuine question. People I know who are keen on Yes seem very keen on a Scandinavian style high tax high social services style model, why not adopt the Kroner and trade more across the north sea.

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    Gordie in the same way, it’s absurd to pretend that a Tory manifesto especially the bedroom tax (sic?) is a feature in perpetuity.

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    Ben have you noted and considered the downsides of a currency union as articulated by the fiscal commission?

    And then there is the wonderful li(n)e

    the proposed framework provides in one sense a continuation of monetary arrangements within a sterling zone but full flexibility in fiscal policy

    Well there’s a first – anyone got a phone number or email address for the marines?

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    What would tying the currency to any other version achieve, Hels?. The same (unwritten) obstacles would still exist. At least the Scottish and rUk economies are reasonably in synch with each other. So from that perspective currency union makes sense and broadly works – oh unless there is a spike in oil prices and the S£ appreciates as it did in the 1970s. Let’s hope you don’t work in exporting then.

    gordimhor
    Full Member

    Since labour have agreed to the tory spending plans I see little difference between the two thm.

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    I am happy to have a more positive view of the UK than you JY.

    Which apparently means one where they ignore the democratic wishes of the people of scotland an go “hardline”. I am not sure how this is more positive than saying they wont do this.

    Because like most rational people they recognise that full independence is not in anyone’s interests. This way you can duck that central lie.

    What was it we had to call this again duckman?
    So THM can still freely use the word lie to describe positions he disagrees with[ pretty much each post it would seem]. I think there is a word for this. Would it be ok to use that word to describe your behaviour?

    Just had lunch with two Edinburgh friends – both find the whole debate utterly depressin.

    A lot of people would find debating this over lunch with you depressing but if you are paying I could give it a go 😉

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    Gordi, v good point. And why is that? And what makes you think that AS or any other Scottish party will be in a position to genuinely adopt radically different policies? I think Ernie made that point several pages back – it is a complete folly/fantasy in theory and in practice.

    But if AS really can combine lower taxes, higher spending, all the pros of a CU with none if the downsides etc you would be a fool note to vote for him. I would love to have such a magician run the whole of the UK not just Scotland. It would be brilliant. Sadly, I fear that the reality will be v different….still there is a first for everything.

    gordimhor
    Full Member

    Hels there’s a series of articles on this site under the heading currency reflections
    future uk and Scotland currency reflections

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    THM AS is hardly the first or the last politician to stand on an electoral ticket that is unrealistic in its aims

    They all do it but it is a fair criticism

    aracer
    Free Member

    Though it doesn’t quite match how you’ve suggested a debate would go 🙂

    I think most people expect it to be very close – far closer than the current polls suggest.

    athgray
    Free Member

    JY, I refer to the UK as more than it’s politicians. They come and go. Even an elixir of youth will not save dear leader. In a generation, if we head down this path, our kids World will be smaller, and our impact on a greater scale wil be little felt. By this I mean that people in the rUK will hear little of Scotland during the day to day. It will just become one amorphous place.
    As an example, I know little about what makes Ireland tick. Subtleties about daily life, politics, geography, biking, similarities, differences, business and industry pass me by as we don’t hear about them. These things pass most of us by. Long term you could argue these things don’t matter, but as someone with a geographically diverse family this matters to me.
    What out of curiosity is everyones problem with the BBC? Other than perhaps calling their neutrality into question on the independence debate, what else have they done wrong?

    duckman
    Full Member

    What out of curiosity is everyones problem with the BBC? Other than perhaps calling their neutrality into question on the independence debate, what else have they done wrong?

    Well not that it matters as according to BT,we won’t be watching it anyway. But being impartial would be nice.

    jambalaya
    Free Member

    Why does the SNP favour the pound, out of curiosity ?


    @hels
    , here is my 2 pence. Firstly it makes sense to have the same currency as or one closely linked to your main trading partner, secondly Scorland does not have the financial resources or credibility to have its own central bank to support its own currency, thirdly if Scotland does have the pound it’s likely the EU will insist on it having the euro either immediately or in fairly short order assuming Scotland is able to join the EU. The SNP knows these are the scenarios and so despite all the chest thumping about Scottish Indepedence and Idtentity they want the Great British Pound.

    No one seemed to respond to my question of what if any banks will an Independent Scotland have. You can’t have a country without banks.

    duckman
    Full Member

    The same we have now,obviously. I realize in your world you carve out chunks of our country,keep 91% of the oil( my favorite ta!) But I am afraid it won’t work like that. It won’t work the way I want as a separatist,but judging by your posts and expectations,you will be more dissapointed.

    bencooper
    Free Member

    By this I mean that people in the rUK will hear little of Scotland during the day to day. It will just become one amorphous place.

    How is that different to now?

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    I mean that people in the rUK will hear little of Scotland during the day to day. It will just become one amorphous place.

    I am not sure where you live tbh but my 8 year old son asked me why scotland* did not fight in world war 2 and only England did – will it be worse than this ? He heard constant references to England instead of the UK at school and in england…almost american levels of rewriting history 😉
    I am not sure how much news you think england gets about Cardiff or Edinburgh as is. tbh but for here I would not even know about the trams and I am reasonably informed on political matters.

    Northwind
    Full Member

    We met a guy in Cornwall who thought Scotland was a small town near Manchester where they make whisky.

    I see the unsinkable euro rubber duck is still bobbing around 😕

    piemonster
    Full Member

    I am not sure where you live tbh but my 8 year old son asked me why scotland* did not fight in world war 2 and only England did

    That’s disgraceful. I blame the parents.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    I saw a Tram today, it was moving and everything.

    Never thought I’d see the day.

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    Did you enjoy Blackpool then …hell you might even be classy there 😉

    To be fair he was not dealt a great hand

    aracer
    Free Member

    Like all “obvious” things I’m not sure it’s at all obvious – though it would probably help if you listed those you think you have now. Isn’t there an EU rule about banks having to be based in the country in which they do most of their business?

    Though I suppose that might not apply to iS given it won’t be in the EU 😈

    fasternotfatter
    Free Member

    Reasons why it does not make sense for the UK to enter into a currency union with iScotland.

    1. Scotland is not our biggest trading partner.
    2. The three biggest parties have ruled it out.
    3. The public have ruled it out.

    There is no need to debate this one any further.

    aracer
    Free Member

    Good job we haven’t devoted much time to it then.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    hell you might even be classy there

    I’m in a class of my own I’ll have you know. Never had clarification whether this is a good thing admittedly.

    Ummm….

    epicyclo
    Full Member

    I’m amazed this currency business has been allowed to run so long.

    I can’t help thinking AS is using it as a decoy to get BT to waste most of their resources on this issue. A bit like the way a rattlesnake uses its rattle to divert its prey.

    He knows most of us don’t care what currency we end up using, and I reckon he’ll turn around at the last minute and say here is Plan B, we’re going to use the Australian $, the rupee, or whatever, and it will look like a master stroke.

    fasternotfatter
    Free Member

    The majority of Scots do care about what currency they will use though. In a poll earlier in the year it was the third most important issue raised by Scots. So rather than AS fooling BT it looks like he is really trying to fool his fellow Scots into thinking that they will still be using the pound after independence.

    jambalaya
    Free Member

    The same we have now,obviously. I realize in your world you carve out chunks of our country,keep 91% of the oil( my favorite ta!) But I am afraid it won’t work like that. It won’t work the way I want as a separatist,but judging by your posts and expectations,you will be more dissapointed.


    @duckman
    – please help me out by listing them. The oil belongs to the UK as a whole, as it’s the UK which is the independent nation. I may be dissapointed as I’d rather Scotland stays part of the Union, if she decides to seperate I may be dissapointed in that I’d rather she be cut lose and left to stand on her own two feet and I’d rather the nuclear deterrent left Scotland

    athgray
    Free Member

    Never has epicyclo been so far off the mark and ignorant of the majority view of Scots. We do care what currency we use and would rather it was the pound. Are you always so flippant of the majority view?
    I understand I may be an anomoly here in that we have a debate that has raged for about 133 pages, where I think I am the only regular poster here that is entitled to vote and will vote no, despite being in the majority (discounting undecides). Strange. If we do not speak up now we will be steamrollered following a yes vote. Other posters appear to confirm this.

    bencooper
    Free Member

    The oil belongs to the UK as a whole, as it’s the UK which is the independent nation

    By that argument, the land belongs to the UK as a whole – are we only going to get 9% of the land area too?

    You keep repeating this bizarre idea that natural resources should be divided up by population. It’s never happened before, and it’s totally unworkable in practice.

    athgray
    Free Member

    ben. Oil split is one of the few things I agree with you on. If we become independent maritime boundaries would have to be split using normal intrernational standards and treaties. The majority of oil would belong to iS, otherwise Scotland would have 9% right to rUK coal fields, or sand and gravel pits, or shale gas reserves. Starts getting a bit silly then.
    JY. You ask if it will be worse than this? rUK knowledge of Scotland, as well as Scottish knowledge of the UK will be diminished, so yes I think it will be worse. Independence certainly won’t bring us any closer.

    teamhurtmore
    Free Member

    Whether people do or do not care is not really the point – they should care and political leaders therefore have a responsibility to inform them correctly. An analogy would be poor diet and smoking. Clearly many people seem to care little about the risks associated with either. However, at the very least, gov’s have a role in education and possibly (not IMO) enforcement.

    At the moment, the people of Scotland are being presented with a false choice by yS. You can decide as the level of intent and motive here, but my views are clear on that!

    The first question is does the region under consideration satisfy the criteria for a currency union. Unlike the € zone, which doesn’t (the fundamental flaw), the UK does. A fact accepted by both sides. So far, so good. At least there is a real decision to be made.

    The next stage is the weigh up the pros and cons. The objectives of freedom in economic policies (monetary and fiscal) are best served by a S£. But this comes with the downside of higher transaction costs and the requirement to take full responsibility for financial stability. In the medium term, this should be no problem but there are costs and risk in the short term transition period.

    A currency union, on the other hand, reduces transactions costs (to zero) and allocates responsibility for financial stability to the BOE. From a iS perspective, again so far, so good. But and it is a big but, the downside means that you give up control over monetary policy to the BOE (the Central Bank of a foreign country) and accept formal limits on fiscal policy. A small trifle…..

    These trade offs are clear (in theory and in practice) unless of course you are AS and yS. In their imaginary world, you can have full independence of monetary and fiscal policy, no transactions costs and another country ensuring the stability of your financial system. This is a brilliant proposal and would be a unique model that no other country/economy has ever been able to pull off. All the pros and none of the cons. He is an economic magician.

    Recognising that big business is shrewd enough to understand and see through this, AS has stressed the issue of transaction costs for rUK business. And they are real. But as big business has made very clear, they represent a lower costs than the potential costs associated with agreeing to a formal (or informal CU). You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Unless of course, your name is……..

    In addition, the need for policy flexibility is itself determined by the level of debt you start with. Now of course, if you believe that Scotland can walk away with and live with no debt then the flexibility requirement are very low. And hence you could live even with an informal currency union with its (hidden) downsides. But if, more likely, you will continue to face a tricky fiscal position and the requirement for continued deficit reduction (IMO much more likely) then flexibility becomes much more important (see NIESR if you don’t believe me). So on balance, iS interests would be better served with a S£. Of course, that ignores the obvious other point that Scotland itself is much better served with the status quo in these respects. It’s that simple.

    epicyclo
    Full Member

    athgray – Member
    Never has epicyclo been so far off the mark and ignorant of the majority view of Scots. We do care what currency we use and would rather it was the pound. Are you always so flippant of the majority view?…

    We’ll see come September.

    Of course it makes sense to use the £ in the short term, but that has been made an issue, so I’m simply pointing out that Salmond may be deliberately extending the controversy, and what his reasons may be. Because one thing for sure, he will have a Plan B.

    athgray
    Free Member

    I can see if you win, you have no concern in trodding on the views of a large portion of fellow Scots. Also you assume that all yes voters do not care what currency we use. I am sure that if that were the case, this thread would not have rumbled on for so long.

    fasternotfatter
    Free Member

    He just isn’t prepared to share his plan B with the people of Scotland so they can make an informed decision about independence.

    bencooper
    Free Member

    When you’re negotiating, you never, ever reveal your plan B.

    “Well, Mr Car Salesman, I know I said I wanted a £1000 discount, but I’d really settle for a free fluffy dice”

    Alex Salmond isn’t that daft.

    fasternotfatter
    Free Member

    The negotiations will not start until independence Ben. You are quick to talk down Westminster but think nothing of AS misleading the people of Scotland.

    bencooper
    Free Member

    The negotiations will not start until independence Ben.

    Do you mean the referendum? Starting negotiations after independence is a bit late 😉

    Anyway, negotiations have already started – we’re in the willy-waving stage, after the referendum it’ll become the pragmatic ger-what-you-can stage.

    konabunny
    Free Member

    Like all “obvious” things I’m not sure it’s at all obvious – though it would probably help if you listed those you think you have now. Isn’t there an EU rule about banks having to be based in the country in which they do most of their business?

    Are you suggesting that there would be no banks in an independent Scotland? Are you predicting that HSBC, the Coop and whoever else has outlets would simply withdraw from the market? Are you saying investment banks wouldn’t arrange finance for businesses? Is that your question?

    Possibly the reason your question has attracted little response is because it seems so silly. Perhaps there’s a wry interesting subtlety to it that you haven’t articulated. Feel free to do so!

    Why does the SNP favour the pound, out of curiosity ?

    Because the world doesn’t need another small currency; because small countries’ new currencies bear a higher rate of risk so borrowing costs are higher; because Joe McBloggs is still confused by buying petrol in litres so introducing a new currency leads to “YOUR PENSION IS WORTHLESS AND YOUR CHILDREN WILL LEAVE YOU TO DIE ALONE” headlines.

Viewing 40 posts - 4,681 through 4,720 (of 12,715 total)

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