Now about this Global Warming 🥶🥶🥶🥶

@lamp

My focus at work is around climate adaptation these days. Sh*ts hitting the fan and most of our institutions and people are pretty unprepared.

The cause of it is only relevant as if we can understand the causes, we could create ways to reduce our impact.

And at the end of the day, you could bet against it. I’ve no need to persuade you otherwise. Because enough other people will take action and will adapt. But is it a bet you want to make?

I remember warm weather. Maybe Peter Kay will do 30 minutes on the topic for his next tour.

Global warming is the reason we no longer see white dog poo!

None of it has happened

None of it happened because we took action.

I often see this kind of stuff on line. “What about the ozone layer, eh? We got told we were all going to fry. That never happened!!!”, which completely fails to grasp that the reason we don’t hear about the hole in the ozone layer is because we banned CFC aerosols plus other measures.

None of it happened because we took action.

Not forgetting that most of those things were what journalists reported, based on worst case scenarios, with not very good or complete data and fairly simple models.

We’ve now got better data, more complete models (but still need refinement) and due to observations over the years, historic data is far better understood.

It’s a bit like Brexit, model says any of these outcomes *could* occur, but we’re not sure, because we don’t have enough data yet.

“Who needs experts, it’ll all be sunlit uplands once we’ve left, lets just f***ing do it and see what happens.”

That’s worked well, much like ignoring Climate Change probably would, if we ignore it.

Watching a few documentaries about the Normandy landings it occured to me that the last week’s weather has been eerily similar to that of D-Day  exactly 80 years ago

Some context about the New York underwater statement https://skepticalscience.com/Hansen-West-Side-Highway.htm

This website is also good to understand other statements that have been made – and then either then taken out of context or that scientific understanding has improved. Climate/Earth models in the 1990’s were a lot more basic than we have now.

Statement on climate change from some scientists, today https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Open_letter_to_Party_Leaders_June_2024.pdf

As a scientist, I am not denying it is currently chilly this week.

I’m pretty sure that can be defined as gaslighting

Dunno if it’s gaslighting, but I don’t think that the sort of messaging that tells folks its been the warmest “month/season/year” on record helps or is useful, when the weather has (for most folks at least) been shit with more or less constant rain and dreary conditions. I think that’s in part driven by the sorts of language that climate scientist use to describe the weather vs (to paraphrase) what folks can see out of their window or read on their app or understand when warmth is used as a descriptive measure.

Neither are ‘wrong’ but that dislocation has to be resolved somehow if we’re to collectively challenge climate change drivers.

It’s now called Junuary.

Someone I know, has been flying off virtually every other weekend to Nice, South of France, to escape the ‘dreadful weather we’ve been having over several months’,

Oh the irony.

I see this thread as showing quite a few folk have their tongues firmly in their cheeks.

.. and a few others can hear a strange wooshing noise above their heads 🤔

I suggest human sacrifice to cure the problem.

I’ve got a list we can be going on with, if you like…

My central heating came on one evening last week, all on its own! I’d had windows open during the day, and the temperature dropped and triggered the Hive sensor.

Lamp – dim as a TocH one.

Currently 17° down here in the SW, with a 13mph wind, gusting to 23mph, which makes it feel cooler. I went to the RIAT at RAF Fairford years ago, which is always on my birthday in July. It was windy, with heavy low cloud and drizzle, I bought myself a sheepskin flying jacket as a birthday present for myself, and wore it all afternoon!

I was reading the other day an article about the water temperature offshore from Florida and the Caribbean – it may be necessary soon to create a new category for hurricanes and possibly tornadoes, because Cat 5 may not be adequate. And anyone considering a beachfront retirement home in the Keys may want to reconsider, and move to Montana. Tornado Alley is creeping steadily north and east, as well…

BUT i’d be AMAZED if as a species we’ve wrecked something in 200 years that is billions of years old.

We won’t have wrecked the planet itself, we’re just making it unsuitable for human habitation. The planet will be fine. Plenty of lifeforms have appeared and disappeared over the years. Give it a few million years or so and it’ll bounce back – that’s a blink of an eye in geological terms.

It’s more about whether we want humans to be comfortable and have easy access to food, water, pleasant living conditions and so on.

if the Gulf Stream stops does that mean we will have similar weather to the same latitude as North America with proper winters and summers?

no, we’re still an island so the majority of our temperature shifts are dampened by the water around us. If the gulf stream stopped we’d be colder, but the range of temperatures should be ballpark the same (obviously other things may impact that)

Here in Finland, we had the warmest May ever recorded. Most consecutive days of heat recorded, least rain recorded (2 mm in the whole month).

Year 2023 broke world-wide heat records every month. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-analysis-confirms-2023-as-warmest-year-on-record/

Local weather patterns, on the other hand, can vary wildly from the averages. Some places may get huge rains, while others get record droughts. Weather patterns get disrupted and out-of-the-ordinary wild single events become much more likely.

last week’s weather has been eerily similar to that of D-Day exactly 80 years ago

And the climate trends in the past 80 years have been startling.

I have to apologise for any rain coming this week. I removed the mudguards from the commuting bike this weekend. 😕

None of it happened because we took action.

That and they’re exaggerating what was actually claimed.

No end in sight of global cooling (then it shifted to global warming practically overnight for some reason?)

Becasue in the 1970’s when climate science was in its infancy there wasn’t a huge amount of data, and being scientists they argued competing theories. One theory held that the climate was cooling – based on the limited survey data of a few years, and the other argued that that was misleading and the trend was in fact the opposite. The Global cooling theory in the meantime was on the cover of some magazines (Time and Nat Geographic), and in the press quite a bit, so was (for a short while) the dominant theory. It’s now known to have been wrong.

Science is like that.

So now you know, you don’t have to go on thinking that “they just changed their minds one day” just to mess with you.

Becasue in the 1970’s when climate science was in its infancy there wasn’t a huge amount of data, and being scientists they argued competing theories.

and yet exxon in the 70’s did a remarkably good job of predicting what happened.

what I always find interesting is the strong correlation between views on one topic such as climate change, and others such as immigration, healthcare, public welfare, human rights….

whether it’s man made or the result of our planet doing what it does i don’t know, BUT i’d be AMAZED if as a species we’ve wrecked something in 200 years that is billions of years old.

Why? People ave been studying this to death for 30 years and you think they’re wrong because it sounds a bit much to you, who has studied nothing? Honestly, what exactly do you think scientists do all day?

going back to ‘science’, i don’t know why we worship it so much?? I mean, how many times has it been wrong (quite a bit frankly)?

How many times has science been right? In general? Almot everything you and I know about the world has come from science.

The thing is that scientists report a study they’ve done that suggests a possible outcome, then the media reports it as a prediction, and when it doesn’t happen idiots such as yourself think they know best based on nothing at all except their own self importance.

Why do we worship science? We don’t, we respect it, because it represents people who have put time and effort into understanding something; why the hell would we not listen when we ourselves have not?

If someone who has never ridden a bike came on here and started telling us all wrong stuff about MTBing would you listen, or would you say they didn’t know what they were talking about?

Also – climate scientists are warning about increased incidence of freak weather, and here we are on a thread about the current freak weather and you’re denying everything. Seriously?

Wait until the gulfstream stops, then you’ll really have something to complain about

Er….maybe watch the video linked above….

 and here we are on a thread about the current freak weather

Reading quite a bit about D-Day at the minute, becasue, well you know..Anyway they changed the date for that becasue of an unseasonal low pressure ridge, and a couple of weeks after the invasion one of the Mulberry Harbours that they dragged all the way over to the coast of France, was destroyed in a storm So the weather we’re having this month is not all that freakish.

if the Gulf Stream stops does that mean we will have similar weather to the same latitude as North America with proper winters and summers?
no, we’re still an island so the majority of our temperature shifts are dampened by the water around us. If the gulf stream stopped we’d be colder, but the range of temperatures should be ballpark the same (obviously other things may impact that)

I could be wrong but it is my understanding that if the Gulf Stream stops we’re looking at weather akin to Siberia and Canada as we’re on the same latitude and it is the Gulf Stream that gives us our temperate climate when compared to other places on a similar axis. Basically, get a fat bike and a snowmobile!

top trolling efforts on  display here, chapeau

As soon as I can I’m going to live in southern France

Ive got some french friends in the south of france, or rather they were in the south. Theyve moved north, because its now too hot in the summer and there’s not enough water. Loads of people are doing the same.

Ive lived on or near the coast my whole life, the sea coming in has been a constant companion. Always amazes me that people are so shocked to hear their house is at risk. The data is there in black and white. Sea level is rising, it’s just a matter of time that your house will become worthless

The Global Cooling from the 1940s to the 1970s was also caused by burning fossil fuels.
During that time, mostly coal, lignite and peat were burnt, which release large amounts of sulphur dioxide and other particles generally called aerosols.  These reflect or absorb (depending on the aerosol / particles) sunlight before it reaches the Earth, causing a cooling or “dimming” effect.
Those fuels also released CO2 and caused warming, but the sulphur dioxide had a greater effect in the other direction and caused the world, and especially the northern hemisphere where the vast majority of these fuels were being burnt, to cool.
In the 1980s there was a switch to burning gas as the primary fossil fuel.  This is much cleaner and doesn’t release sulphur dioxide, while still releasing CO2, so it causes all warming and no cooling.
Now, the sulphur dioxide is relatively short lived in the atmosphere (it gets rained out), whereas the CO2 is very long lived.  This means that the warming effect from the fuels burnt in the 1940s to 1970s is still happening, whereas the corresponding cooling effect from the dirty fuel is no longer happening.  Compounding this is all the CO2 from the cleaner fuels burnt since the 1980s, which is actually the majority percentage of all fuels burnt ever, and we get to the ~ 420 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere at the moment.

How do I know all this?  I studied climate physics at Oxford University and did my DPhil in climate modelling.
Climate deniers have been a tiring presence in my life for 20 years, and they fall into three camps:
1.  The ignorant.  Those who refuse to learn the science and rely on their instinct.
2.  Those with an agenda who stand to gain from misrepresenting science.
3.  The gullible.  Those who are taken in by number 2 and their phoney arguments.

Which one are you OP?

desperatebicycleFull Member
I have to apologise for any rain coming this week. I removed the mudguards from the commuting bike this weekend. 😕

Somewhat out of character I haven’t removed the mudguards on my commuter yet… Partly because they offer better dog poo† protection, but mainly because I think it has rained near enough every single week of the year so far.

†there was a spate of freshly laid giant dog turds every day on one of the footpaths that is usually clear (and thankfully returned to).

WHEN (not ‘if’) the Gulf Stream fails, little Britain will be rather totally foobarred. Especially with the shiiite average condition of housing as far as insulation etc is concerned, lack of energy planning and generating capacity, lack of storage, etc.  Glad I’ve got a new Rab down jacket.

Dunno if it’s gaslighting, but I don’t think that the sort of messaging that tells folks its been the warmest “month/season/year” on record helps or is useful, when the weather has (for most folks at least) been shit with more or less constant rain and dreary conditions.

What we’re experiencing now is weather. What’s being discussed regarding record temps is climate. Local versus global innit. Best get used to wetter weather in the UK.

WHEN (not ‘if’) the Gulf Stream fails,

Again…have you watched the video above?

@nerd you do realise I wasn’t being serious I hope? 🤔

@oldfart I have a sense of humour bypass for this topic, due to the aforementioned 20 years of nonsense from climate change deniers!  Apologies if I have unfairly lumped you in with that lot.

I studied climate physics at Oxford University and did my DPhil in climate modelling.

Yes but that’s a model. I read on the internet that it’s all a hoax to get money from us for the World Economic Forum. Luckily I am a member of the Truth Community so I am alert to these tricks.

It’s all fun and games until the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation fails. We can warm ourselves with fond memories of pedantry about the Gulf Stream in more innocent times.

I’m out

Been climbing with a Prof of Atmospheric Science this evening, so I asked her view (as I work on much longer climate change). She said that the UK weather predictions suggest there will be more year on year variability due to climate change – so switching between super hot summers and chilly summers like this could be the new normal.

Yep people should read up on tipping points and AMOC. It’s not a happy ending

I’ve seen that really good documentary about it. The day after tomorrow?