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More trauma for the non working classes
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molgripsFree Member
People were told to much fanfare that this new earth-shattering technological breakthrough would revolutionise their lives
It has.
It strikes me that we’ll end up only needing a tiny proportion of the population actually working, so what do we do with the rest of them? How can a human compete with a machine?
Who makes the machines? How many people are involved in design, manufacture, R&D? Who makes the silicon chips, who designs those?
BTW in my Asda, only about three or four checkouts have been replaced with 20 or so of these things. The other checkouts are still heavily manned. And how many people are not dissuaded from picking up a few more things or coming into the store at all because of big queues? How many people are buying slightly more because they’re less stressed?
5thElefantFree MemberIronic that a site dedicated to playing with children’s toys elevated to carbon and titanium interactive leisure jewellery can have complaints about technology failing to deliver leisure opportunities.
v8ninetyFull MemberToys, I’ll give you, children’s toys? Not really. There always has been a percentage of the population sufficiently affluent to be able to play as well as work. that percentage has certainly grown, but it strikes me its set to shrink markedly soon, if it hasn’t started already.
Moll, I hear what you’re saying, but the maths just doesn’t add up, does it? I mean, the motivation to put these machines in place is financial, and where is the saving if its not from the wage budget? And if your local Asda only has a few of these, just watch that space; that’s how mine started, and I’d say nearly half the tills have been replaced now, and speaking to the staff, hours are thin on the ground as a result.
ernie_lynchFree Membermolgrips – Member
“People were told to much fanfare that this new earth-shattering technological breakthrough would revolutionise their lives”
It has.
It hasn’t, not in the way they said it would.
Which is clear if you put the above quote in the full context I put it in, ie :
Tedious tasks would in future be preformed by machines freeing people to spend more time enjoying their lives. The new growth areas would be the leisure industries as they expanded and developed to deal with the new situation caused by people only needing to work 3 or 4 days per week.
We are now expected to work harder and retire later than we did before the advent of new technology. It has not revolutionised people’s lives. Their lives are fundamentally the same, whether they use a mobile rather than a payphone, read a website rather than a newspaper, an email rather than a letter, drive a high tech car rather than a classic Capri, etc. The majority of people do not enjoy a 3 or 4 day weekend or a dramatically reduced working day as was predicted would happen. There’s just more unemployment and less job security. And of course lower wages.
ernie_lynchFree MemberAnd if your local Asda only has a few of these, just watch that space; that’s how mine started, and I’d say nearly half the tills have been replaced now, and speaking to the staff, hours are thin on the ground as a result.
So Asda are using the savings which they are making to provide their staff with shorter hours for the same money ?
Of course not, that’s not how capitalism works.
footflapsFull MemberWho makes the silicon chips, who designs those?
A lot of well paid Engineers in Cambridge – 95% of mobile phones have a chip designed here in it (or several in many cases) thanks to CSR, Arm, Broadcom, etc.
ernie_lynchFree MemberWho makes the machines? How many people are involved in design, manufacture, R&D? Who makes the silicon chips, who designs those?
So all the people who become redundant as the result of new technology can be re-employed designing and making machines ? It seems hardly worth the bother of replacing people with machines if you then have to employ these people to make more machines.
An easier solution might be to develop machines which are designed to be consumers themselves. Obviously you would have to pay these machines wages – penniless consumers are no good to anyone, but at least it would keep demand at a reasonable level to create profits. Perhaps machines could be designed to buy products from other machines, products which are then destroyed and re-cycled ?
molgripsFree MemberI mean, the motivation to put these machines in place is financial, and where is the saving if its not from the wage budget?
Well yes, financial, but what happens to those savings? What would you do if you were CEO?
You could either trouser the money, or you could re-invest the money in things that make your business more appealing to customers and lure them from competitors, thereby boosting the business as a whole and providing more employment overall.
For example, at the same time as installing a load of new self checkouts, they laid laminate flooring in the make-up aisle. Who’s going to be able to resist class like that? Waitrose is doomed.
Seriously though – I’m just playing devil’s advocate, but I’m trying to see around the Luddite position. I remember in the 80s we had 3m unemployed. Now it’s what – 2.5m? So unemployment doens’t seem to be rising inexorably. I know it’s more complicated than that, but for 200 years people have been worried that machines would take their jobs away, but we still seem to have a similar number of jobs, and most of us still work.
So maybe people really are finding other things to do.
ernie_lynchFree MemberSo unemployment doens’t seem to be rising inexorably.
We once referred to 1 million or more unemployed as “mass unemployment”, it is now such a permanent feature that we class 2 million plus unemployed as quite good.
ernie_lynchFree MemberWhen what ? When did we call 1 million or more unemployed as “mass unemployment” ?
Back in 1979 when we had 1.5 million unemployed and the Tories we creating a song and dance about it :
We now have higher levels of unemployment but apparently the present Tory government thinks the unemployment figures are really rather good.
molgripsFree MemberI’m talking about the last two centuries of mechanisation though, speaking more generally. Does this not show that increased mechanisation does not lead to higher overall unemployment?
Genuine question, not a challenge.
andyrmFree MemberIt’s important to remember we have also had a net population increase though, so working on the basis that we have seen something like 11% population increase, factored with people living considerably longer at greater levels of fitness (and so being able to, and wanting to, work longer), we would naturally see unemployment growth.
Sources for population growth:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_pop-people-population&date=1979
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_pop-people-population&date=2011
Factor in increased automation, the rise of the internet and access for consumers to make purchases online from anywhere in the world, plus of course more women working than in the previous generation (thus eroding the jobs that men would have taken while their wives stayed at home) and a rise in unemployment is by definition inevitable.
That’s not down to government policy or anything else – it’s societal change.
piemonsterFree MemberSo Asda are using the savings which they are making to provide their staff with shorter hours for the same money ?
Actually ASDA are quite good at giving people shorter hours, admittedly not for the same money.
Clicking through the first six jobs only one provides full time hours http://www.indeed.co.uk/Asda-jobs
It wouldn’t surprise me if most supermarkets do this. I wonder what there policy on overtime rates are?
ernie_lynchFree MemberI’m talking about the last two centuries of mechanisation though, speaking more generally. Does this not show that increased mechanisation does not lead to higher overall unemployment?
Well I’m not sure what the unemployment levels were in the pre-industrial feudal days, I suspect not very high. But yeah, we have certainly had a period of full employment during the industrialised era. The mistake is to believe that an equilibrium will always occur were the disadvantages are automatically compensated by advantages. Your “who makes the machines?” comment suggests this scenario.
ernie_lynchFree MemberThat’s not down to government policy or anything else – it’s societal change.
You really think that unemployment levels aren’t down to government policy ?
BTW at 7.8% (officially) the unemployment rate today is higher than it was in 1979.
5thElefantFree MemberHow many more women in the labour market now than in 1979?
Technology has freed up women to enter the labour market. There are more jobs than there ever were.
andyrmFree MemberBTW at 7.8% (officially) the unemployment rate today is higher than it was in 1979.
But as per my post, if more women are going into work than back in 1979, then by definition there will be less jobs, and more unemployment. An interesting metric would be to compare the actual of numbers of women back then who responded to a census as “housewife” relative to today. I may be wrong, but I reckon we will see a considerable difference in the 2 numbers and this in turn will go at least some way to explain increases.
It’s oversimplification for anyone (and this is in no way aimed at anyone on here) to solely blame “the government”. There’s too many other external factors to consider.
bloodynoraFree MemberThat poster was pretty accurate, Labour wasn’t working so the country voted for someone else, glad you pointed that out.
trailmonkeyFull MemberTechnology has freed upChronically low wages that families can’t survive on have forced women to enter the labour market.andyrmFree MemberChronically low wages that families can’t survive on have forced women to enter the labour market.
I would argue (including real life experience of family and friends round me) that it is actually consumerist desires to have more stuff, rather than “chronically low wages”.
People “expect” the “right” to have multiple holidays, multiple TVs, 2 cars, lots of new clothes rather than repairing or having hand downs.
Not saying either is right or wrong, but maybe our desire for more drives the financial requirement to find a way to pay for our modern lifestyle? Just a thought.
trailmonkeyFull Memberi don’t have any pretensions about foreign holidays or multiple consumer items at the moment – we’re just trying to survive on two chronically low wages with two teenage kids
joemarshallFree MemberSo all the people who become redundant as the result of new technology can be re-employed designing and making machines ? It seems hardly worth the bother of replacing people with machines if you then have to employ these people to make more machines.
also, even ignoring that the world where someone sacked from ASDA can move straight into chip design, the design involves nowhere near as many people either – look at arm vs asda – financially asda is about 3x the size, but arm has 2000 employees, vs asda’s 175000.
molgripsFree MemberThe mistake is to believe that an equilibrium will always occur were the disadvantages are automatically compensated by advantages. Your “who makes the machines?” comment suggests this scenario.
Well to be a bit more accurate, obviously everyone doesn’t get work making machines, otherwise the machines would cost a lot more than the labour they replace and no-one would ever use them.
The point is that historically speaking, the labour market has adapted and people have found other things to do. Now, whether or not this is simply unsustainably kicking the can down the road to developing nations is another issue I suppose.
And as for feudal times – the Luddite protests were 1811 to 1817.
People “expect” the “right” to have multiple holidays, multiple TVs, 2 cars, lots of new clothes
I don’t think so. The only people I know who have multiple holidays are well off middle class people. Most families I know at the crappy end of the labour market working poorly paid service jobs are struggling, and never go on holiday.
rudebwoyFree Membermany people i know who work , rely on both partners working,in order to provide a pittance just above benefit levels,some do two or three part time jobs, and like trailmonkey says, not for luxuries , but just to get bye. I think the demographic of stw is not representative of the uk workforce- its defo skewed towards higher earners.
piemonsterFree MemberPeople “expect” the “right” to have multiple holidays, multiple TVs, 2 cars, lots of new clothes rather than repairing or having hand downs.
Well, many of these things are rammed down our throats by advertising. The “right” as you call it is arguably more about perception of what you should have based on your observations of the world around you. If you don’t have these things, what does it mean for your place in society?
ernie_lynchFree MemberThe point is that historically speaking, the labour market has adapted and people have found other things to do.
Historically speaking ? Why are you comparing the situation today with the situation 25, 50, 100, or 200, years ago ? Has nothing changed ?
EDIT : btw I agree that there are plenty of “other things to do”. The question you need to answer is why aren’t they being done now ?
molgripsFree MemberNo my point is that the economy continually adapts and has been doing so since the industrial revolution.
oldnpastitFull MemberThere’s a billion people in China who just ten years ago were mostly growing rice in the back of beyond, all of whom would quite like to have a standard of living like ours. They seem quite determined to get it.
v8ninetyFull MemberSo the consensus is, as a society, we’re screwed. As an individual, we may be ok, so long as we get a job either building or servicing the robots*, or we own shares in companies employing robots.
Awesome, can’t wait. So glad I’ve brought children into this world…
There’s a billion people in China who just ten years ago were mostly growing rice in the back of beyond, all of whom would quite like to have a standard of living like ours. They seem quite determined to get it.
And I do believe that the conventional wisdom is that if China is to remain competitive, they must (and will) do anything they can to keep the massive population very poor indeed. It’s their ‘USP’.
*ie; any labour reducing technology.
ernie_lynchFree MemberNo my point is that the economy continually adapts and has been doing so since the industrial revolution.
OK, it “adapts”, as you put it. But accommodating 10%, 25%, or 50% unemployment, is adapting. You seemed to be suggesting that the labour market would adapt in an altruistic or benevolent way. That’s not what markets are about, far from it. Nor is there any evidence that the market has any sort of inbuilt self-preservation mechanism that protects it, which again seems to be what you are suggesting by claiming that it adapts.
ernie_lynchFree MemberAwesome, can’t wait. So glad I’ve brought children into this world…
I’m actually quite optimistic, because I believe that people will adapt – not the markets. I think new methods of less labour intensive production should be embraced, but for the benefit of all, not the few. It will release people to engage in other socially useful tasks but which don’t necessarily create an easily identifiable material profit. Necessity forces humans to adapt, and they will imo.
rudebwoyFree MemberThere’s a billion people in China who just ten years ago were mostly growing rice in the back of beyond,
oldnpastit— do you teach in a private school ?
molgripsFree MemberYou seemed to be suggesting that the labour market would adapt in an altruistic or benevolent way.
No, not at all. Markets can never be benevolent, can they? Surely they’re completely amoral, which is their problem.
All I’m saying is that historically, people have always found something else to do when their jobs are replaced by machines. Whether or not that’s a good thing is another debate, but It’s been happening.
I think that, rather than machines freeing up our leisure time, they’ve actually freed us up (collecively) to start other businesses to make more money, and employ other people who are also freed from menial labour.
rudebwoyFree MemberI think that, rather than machines freeing up our leisure time, they’ve actually freed us up (collecively) to start other businesses to make more money, and employ other people who are also freed from menial labour.
are you serious–so the global downturn is not happening ?– more under/unemployed than ever in uk —
molgripsFree Memberare you serious–so the global downturn is not happening ?
Sigh.. I’m talking about mechanisation in general. It’s been going on a lot longer than 2008 hasn’t it?
Are you trying to say that the global downturn is a result of mechanisation?
vinnyehFull MemberI think that, rather than machines freeing up our leisure time, they’ve actually freed us up (collecively) to start other businesses to make more money, and employ other people who are also freed from menial labour.
I understand what you’re saying, but the majority of those businesses seem to be coffee shops, baby clothing shops, and beauty salons.
The quality of the jobs, and working conditions, have deteriorated for many .molgripsFree MemberI’ve asked this often and never had a decent answer.
Exactly why are baby clothing shops, beauty salons and coffee shops bad?
Coffee shops only exist because lots of people have the means to buy coffee and the time to drink it.
You might hark back to manufacturing as being somehow more worthy than coffee shops, but a large part of manufacturing is making total shite that no-one needs. The only difference is that you drink coffee rather than look at it or give it to people. And it doesn’t end up in landfill either.
binnersFull MemberAll I’m saying is that historically, people have always found something else to do when their jobs are replaced by machines.
Exactly! Ultimately we’ll all end up working for a coffee franchise, selling each other overpriced lattes while we sit designing Apps on a Macbook Pro, and experimenting with elaborate facial hair. This already accounts for 92% of the entire British economy. The other 8% being Tesco
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