Last night i came across the term MEGA. Like MAGA but referring to onshoring European production back from China. And without the political emphasis. Also known as GTFOC! I was looking at outdoor clothing but it got me wondering if the bike industry is doing the same? One of the reasons being quoted for MEGA was the issue of China invading Taiwan or a similar incident where supply suddenly gets shut down overnight. But also greater ability to control stock levels, quality etc.

I know Cotic have been starting to shift some of their production from Taiwan (for various reasons) and I’ve seen a few other posts from the smaller (US) companies doing similar. Are we starting to see a bigger bike shift back to Europe?

I hope so.

In a world where we’re constantly fussing over the difference between the environmental impact of different models of private car, it’d be nice to see a bit more local production and fewer filthy ships travelling half way round the globe, but I think given the way the bike market is at the moment I can’t see it happening. There’s a lot of pressure on prices and I was looking at Cotic’s new Escapade frames thinking it’d be nice, but I couldn’t get close to a frameset that costs 2 grand. So you’re limiting your market to people who can afford and want to pay for the local production, meaning you have to have bigger margins (lower volume) alongside the higher production costs. Some brands will be able to pull it off, but as a general trend I don’t see it.

If you really want to be bored check out the new CBAM (Carbon Border adjustment Mechanism) legislation that kicks in in June, it’s going to eventually make manufacturing carbon-intensive products for the EU market outside of the EU a much more expensive business.

And yes that will hit British manufacturers, but hey, blue passports.

Are we starting to see a bigger bike shift back to Europe?

Only if people are willing to pay for it. We’ve got used to products built with cheap labour & government subsidise.

While there are positives and many here will embrace such a pivot and pay more, remember for a lot of people this would be yet another scrape of you can’t have those nice things anymore.

It’s not just about offshoring but also just really complex delicate long distance supply chains- covid was a massive shock to the system for a lot of companies that had just got really used to the benefits, and had managed to forget that there are a lot of potential downsides. The Evergreen ship incident came as a little bonus wakeup. Suddenly you’re in a situation where an issue in one country can be an issue for you worldwide, you thought you made stuff in a bunch of places but it turns out it’s all interconnected and so losing (if you’re shimano) one factory in Malaysia can impact the production of almost every mech you make everywhere in the world, frinstance.

Anyone looking forward at the next 10, 20, 30 years and not thinking hmm, unpredictable supply chain shocks and disruption are worth planning for, is probably planning to retire before then.