Mmm think the people will have something to say about that!

I couldn’t see Greece on that graph, world bank figures for 3 years ago make tax as % of GDP 3% higher for UK.

However in the article that DrJ linked too it pointed out that ~ 1 in 4 Euro’s earned in Greece are undeclared hence tax free! And 27.5% of GDP is undeclared

1 in 4 Euro’s earned in Greece are undeclared hence tax free! And 27.5% of GDP is undeclared

and 16% in Germany, and 12% in ours, 27% in Italy

Overall in the whole of the EU it’s 1 in 5.5E are undeclared

The point being that Greece are not really substantially worse or better at collecting taxes or controlling their shadow economy than pretty much the rest of the EU (certainly not significantly enough for it to have landed them in the situation they find themselves in now, the figures simply aren’t there to support that view)

Hang on 12% vs 27.5% is a vast difference.

Though note that we’re a lot better than average and anyway 88% vs 72.5% isn’t such a huge difference.

Hang on 12% vs 27.5% is a vast difference.

the point I was trying to make was that everywhere in the EU has a shadow economy, I think (off the top of my head) the average is 20%.

Just saying the Greek have themselves to blame because they don’t pay tax and pay builders in cash is to miss what’s going on by a country mile.

Hmm.. the more complex the issue, the more people are able to twist it to back up their own pre-existing ideas and then expound them on the internet….

molly, agree. Something we all do to a degree.

Well my position has changed. 6 months ago when Syriza won the general election I dismissed Syriza politicians as bourgeois academics with very little credibility. 6 months later I dismiss them as bourgeois academics with no credibility at all.

Today they have agreed to a package of measures which the Greek people not only rejected by a clear margin a week ago, but which Syriza itself urged them to reject.

They won no concessions, not even debt relief – the case for which had been made by the IMF, the only concessions made were all by Syriza.

Syriza should now do the decent thing after their complete failure to carry out what they were elected to do, and resign and call a general election. I don’t suppose they will.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11736779/Greece-is-being-treated-like-a-hostile-occupied-state.html

Is anyone surprised the US is putting pressure on it’s special friend, the English speaking trading bridge to the other European countries? I wonder what threats of economic punishment have been made behind the scenes, they have punished us before when not playing ball! of course we don’t like to talk about it, the battered wife that Britain is.

^ +1 ernie. Whether or not you think Tsipras & co are the good guys in all this, I don’t think that there is any doubt at all that they completely misjudged the negotiations & have left the counrty in a much worse state than it would otherwise have been. First rule of negotiations is to understand who you are negotiating with. You can slag off the EU for being bullies or whatever, but Tsipras clearly did not have any idea of what was realistically achievable. If you don’t have some concept of what your opponent’s bottom line is you are always going to come unstuck.

I also think that trying to appeal to the other side’s better nature while at the same time criticising them in completely undiplomatic language is also self-defeating. It is likewise counter-productive to bluff too strongly when you are clearly holding a weak hand. All the bluster that the Greek side came out with just infuriated the EU negotiators. If you are a debtor who is actually asking for more money then trying to dictate terms is a high-risk strategy. The referendum may have made for good populist politics but it was just a crazy idea if they were genuinely trying to get an agreement that suited Greece. What. a. mess.

Syriza should now do the decent thing after their complete failure to carry out what they were elected to do, and resign and call a general election. I don’t suppose they will.

I suspect they probably will, but to be honest, there is no credible opposition – certain not the old Trots of KKE.

So to summarise for the I struggle with long sentences crowd

Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece’s arse?

Is that about where they are?

not the old Trots of KKE.

You have got to be kidding me ! The KKE “Trots” ! 😆

The Trots, along with the Maoists, and the Eurocommunists, and all the other ‘radical student politicians’, are in Syriza. I thought you were reasonably well-informed about Greek politics DrJ. I can assure you that the KKE is completely Trot free 🙂

If I were a Greek voter I would vote KKE, precisely because it is free of bourgeois pseudo-leftists.

@ ernie – have a look back at what happened to Papandreou after Sarkozy cornered him last time: resignation, followed by deputy taking over followed by election.

I’m still not convinced that this isn’t the ousting of a democratically elected government by the rest of the EU acting on behalf of their central banks.

(And as for the U.S., we all know the hand they played – including forcing Mutti to deliver that famous line (“I will not commit suicide”) while weeping at the Cannes summit during the Italian debt crisis…. Which of course resulted in Monti being appointed in lieu of the elected Berlusconi.)

For all of Greece’s faults – a two tier society dominated by tax dodging oligarchs – my faith in the EU has been sorely dented as a result of this debacle.

Syriza should now do the decent thing after their complete failure to carry out what they were elected to do, and resign and call a general election. I don’t suppose they will.

Its kind of academic now which parties nominally ‘in charge’. They’ve no actual power. They’ve just signed over all the decision making to Brussels and Berlin. They might as well just dissolve parliament, and refuse to go along with maintaining the ridiculous charade that they are somehow still a democracy. All decisions of any consequence will now be taken by faceless EU technocrats, issuing decrees from Brussels .

They’ve had a go at that before. It didn’t go well. Its going to be a hell of a lot worse this time around. I expect the rioting to start imminently.

If anyone thinks this farce today is actually going to resolve anything, or even remotely improve the situation, they’re living in la-la-land.

@ piemonster – best analysis I’ve read to date!

Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece’s arse?

Aye, but did they take three fingers in preference to a full on fisting? If so, that’s a win in my book.

Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece’s arse?

I think it might be a full fist. Oh well live in a dreamworld it’ll eventually turn into a nightmare, probably a recurring one. This deal won’t stick or work, we’ll be back again in six months.. The Greeks should have Grexited for their own benefit. At least they’d have some control over their future.

I also think a lot of people will quietly applaud the EU for notting letting the Greeks ‘get away with it’ so don’t assume the EU will come out of this with it’s reputation in tatters. For all the shouting about the bully boy EU there will be a lot of people quietly keeping their views to themselves for fear of getting abuse. Anyone remember our recent election?

Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece’s arse?

No sticking three fingers up their arse would have been ejecting them from the euro and the EU. Greece has been given a firm slap, that’s all.

The EU didn’t have the balls to do the right thing and walk away instead it’s throwing good money after bad. Junker is trying to get the UK on the hook for a £1bn even though we have a written agreement that the UK will not participate in future bailouts, Cameron go that in writing as it was obvious where this was heading years ago. French Government is trying to spin the bailout as a victory for Hollande but there is widespread disagreement from the French left as they think the bailout money would be better spent in France

The EU didn’t have the balls to do the right thing and walk away

So now you’re arguing in favour of debt forgiveness, that’s a change in stance. I’m assuming that you don’t approve of the Germans, bankers, and unelected EU bureaucrats, seizing Greece’s few remaining assets then, good for you. Welcome aboard 🙂

You have got to be kidding me ! The KKE “Trots” !

My bad. I was using “Trots” as a lazy short hand for “irrelevant frustrated revolutionaries”. Either way, the only winners on the political stage here are Golden Dawn. This is precisely what Varoufakis warned against months ago.

In an ironic kind of way – all we are seeing now is Europe behaving is the way it has to happen under the current construct, even though this was not the design. We are seeing a massive fiscal transfer along the likes of the transfers to Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Of course, under the treaty setting up the € these transfers were forbidden – but hey, it was badly designed from the start.

And then centralisation of power and fiscal policy. So the new fund under central administration – this is just the required reality albeit through the back door. And guess what? People don’t like it and why should they.

An appalling but predictable outcome.

Politics may trump economics in the ST, but the dismal science wins out in the end. Here is more proof, if it was ever needed.

And then centralisation of power and fiscal policy. 

I’d hope that’s as unlikely now as it’s ever been and likely now, ever to be.

When the EU parliament can’t even achieve sign-off for their annual audit, it’s not likely anyone would sign over total fiscal control at state level.

EU is turning into a proper dogs breakfast and if Europe want the UK public to vote to leave, handing us a bill for the Greek bail out is a good effort in achieving just that!

Either way, the only winners on the political stage here are Golden Dawn.

Another irony is that the EU in its original form was designed to ensure an end to conflict after the last little dust up. Yet in its present form, its demonstrating how far it has come from those ideals, by blindly folowing a path that is increasingly fuelling the rise of the extreme right wing parties. Not least in Germany.

Brussells seems to just close its eyes and ears to everything it doesn’t want to see or hear, and plough on with ‘the project’ regardless of the consequences, intended or otherwise.

So as I understand it the deal was agreed to save Greece but it isn’t final until a load of laws and amendments get through the Greek parliament. These laws and amendments have to be passed by end of play tomorrow otherwise we are back to the same situation it was all in on Sunday morning. So nothing is yet certain.

This hasn’t stopped the media claiming disaster has been averted for now and the EU issuing us a bill for something we have no say in. Does anyone else think this situation is just a little bit bonkers?!?

These laws and amendments have to be passed by end of play tomorrow otherwise we are back to the same situation it was all in on Sunday morning.

I think we can take it as read that we’ll be back in the same situation pretty imminently, and the whole farcical, ****ed-up Eurozone-merry-go-round will keep spinning

Alternatively, it all takes a new direction.

France manages to push the suggestion of deploying the EFSM and gets other EU members to agree.
Of course, Dave and George will refuse and remind everyone about the 2010 agreement.

France and Co refuse to listen and insist on using EFSM.

UK says no and is made to look to be the bad guy unless it agrees to EFSM and receiving a bill for the bail out.

So, barring a miracle, the last week or so of Euro leaders’ meetings and the Greek referendum has been one giant waste of time and money 😆

It’s like a grown-up, very large primary school playground 😯

Shall we start a sweepstake on when Germany (who are bankrolling this really) take their ball away?

Germany can’t take its ball away. The way the Euro is structured surpresses the true value of a single German currency, with the rest of Europe effectively subsidising German exports, by collectively devaluing the Euro, compared to the deutschmark.

If the Eurozone implodes, then the German currency is no longer artificially deflated, and its exports all of a sudden reflect the true strength of the German economy. You see all those fleets of Leased Beemers and Audis clogging up the fast lane, sat half an inch off your bumper? Well you wouldn’t be seeing so many of those any more, because they’d rocket in cost, making the German car industry, as well as all its others, uncompetitive overnight.

The Greeks know this.

Its a high stakes game on both sides this. Not as one sided as the Germans would have everyone believe

So Greece knows that Germany cannot risk them leaving as it would cause German exports to suddenly become excessively expensive and hit their GDP.
Germany knows that if Greece goes belly-up then it could cause a domino effect and that will cause the Eurozone to go into further depression and hit their GDP.
If the Eurozone keep on ‘lending’ Greece money that it cannot afford to repay then things will continue for the time being until the EU runs out of money itself and cannot support the Greek economy, causing the Eurozone to collapse.

Is there a case for making Greece default by withholding funds then rebuilding from the ground up their financial affairs? I know this would cause short-term problems but it’s looking more favourable to long-term instability as we lurch from one crisis to another, with all the other bad-case scenarios still lurking to strike at any moment. At least the EU could all work towards fixing a defined set of problems that will be foreseeable in the main rather than the knee-jerk reactions we are currently going though!

My knowledge of world financial affairs is a bit rusty as I switched off from it all for the last few months so trying to catch up!!

It’s like a grown-up, very large primary school playground

Oh you’ve only just noticed and all the things we were told not to do as a child governments do everyday. My my what an example they set for the rest of the plebs! it’s no wonder the world is a clusterf$$k of deceit with a nice shiny lip service multicultural corporate brochure, keeping up appearances façade, hhhhmmmmmmm what to do…………

The balancing act Gemany is doing is working out if the unofficial subsidy its receiving for is exports is bringing in more than it continues to pour into the bottomless moneypit that is the Southern Eurozone. Or what the export income it would lose would be if it collapsed.

You can tell by their enthusiasm to keep it going which way the maths is presently stacking up.

An interesting theory is that the Euro would probably work as a (hugely devalued) currency if Germany left it. That would be brilliant for everyone else. But that wouldn’t work for Germany. So that aint happpening!

So basically Merkel’s the key player to watch in this current round? If she changes message about whether to help Greece or not is the main indicator of which way it’s going to go.

Binners is spot on Germany simply can not afford Greece to collapse, Germany has been running a false economy for many years propped up by the euro. This is not a one sided fight and France is no better protected than Germany they are potentially at much greater risk than Germany (higher unemployment, restrictive labour market etc) the last thing France or s

Can’t imagine that the latest from the IMF is going to make easy reading for Germany.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/14/uk-eurozone-greece-imf-report-idUKKCN0PO1C920150714

Binners is spot on Germany simply can not afford Greece to collapse, Germany has been running a false economy for many years propped up by the euro. This is not a one sided fight and France is no better protected than Germany they are potentially at much greater risk than Germany (higher unemployment, restrictive labour market etc) the last thing France or Spain or Italy want is a Greece with a massively devalued Drachma currency – for all their posturing it’s the Germans and French who are really s******g themselves Greece has nothing to loose compared to those two.

Binners is spot on Germany simply can not afford Greece to collapse

Well, Germany have been doing their level best to force Greece out of the Euro since they have now outlived their usefulness, saturated the market with BMWs(*) and Bosch fridges, and now cost money. Question is, what happens next, when the process repeats in Spain or Italy or France.

(*) Much as I love the Greeks, they are a bunch of bloody idiots. When I’m there I drive quite a bit and I’m overtaken all day long by Beamers, Mercs and Audis, and I can hardly get past them parked on our narrow lane to get home.

Dr J – a lot of these ‘loans’ to Greece were really just finance deals on all those Beamers, Mercs and Audis. And other products of the German economy. Do you think they were allowed to spend that money on whatever they liked?

Like Model T Fords – any colour you like as long as its black, the Greeks could buy whatever they wanted….. as long as it had Made in Germany stamped on it

This thread is getting ridiculous now. Like a combination of JHJ and a Radio 5 phone in.