http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-northern-ireland-2017-39159423

So now the Irish Nationlists have the majority and it would appear that they may only get stronger, will the NI be leaving the UK in a few years?

How does it work?

Can they ask for a referendum?

How can they stay part of the UK if the majority of the population don’t want to be and consider themselves Irish and not British?

I think its inevitable.

well history would suggest we do one of two things

1. Send in the troops- after ignoring the democratic will of the people
2. Send in the loyalist to just live there and vote to be loyal

It wold be a great irony if the result of the EU vote was the split of this union.

Yes they can ask for one

IMHO if the parliaments of scotland or NI hold one without UK permission it becomes very difficult for rUK to ignore this and decide to retain those countries by force- can anyone really see us sending in the troops and having a civil war?

Pretty sure the EU law courts would intervene to protect us …..imagine that eh

One of those they would have to respect the wishes of the people though it would be politically socially and constitutionally very ugly

NI would almost certainly descend into civil war and the return of the troubles as centuries later the Ulster plantation remain fantastically loyal to “england” .

Err, DUP is currently biggest party at Stormont. They will have more success with the ballot box than they ever did with the Armalite. (Though how they plan to encourage the more extreme Republicans to go peaceably is anyones guess).

There are some very unhappy Loyalists to placate as well. The last leader staying put and not falling on her sword has done for them. Self interest has done for community interest and that part of the electorate that does not want to leave are not happy at all.

can anyone really see us sending in the troops and having a civil war?

We did in 1969.

Err, DUP is currently biggest party at Stormont.

DUP + UUP 38 seats
SF + SDLP 39 seats

Do they have the majority of population as nationalists, or just seats? I’m not sure that this split would be reflected in a referendum result. Has anyone done a poll on national identity and support for the union recently? Then again, stranger things seem to be happening a lot at the moment. 😀

The potential disappearance of cross-border free movement may throw another spanner as well, not that an independent NI would gain easy entry to the EU and may have to negotiate separate terms with the Republic.

It wold be a great irony if the result of the EU vote was the split of this union.

We can but hope.

The potential disappearance of cross-border free movement may throw another spanner as well, not that an independent NI would gain easy entry to the EU and may have to negotiate separate terms with the Republic.

I always thought the goal for the Nationalists was to form a United Ireland and not an independent NI?

DUP + UUP 38 seats
SF + SDLP 39 seats

You forgot TUV, plus alliance is seen is leaning towards unionism.

im still not certain the Republic could afford to take the North on. Further to that the complications of the benifit, and health system changes would be a hard pill for the population of the north to swallow. There is a connection between the rise of sectarianism and economic conditions as always, the better the economy the less the violence. Personally, I think the best hope lies with the next generation of the population, who haven’t lived through the peak of the terrorism, and can forge an identity that’s northern Irish rather than British / Irish rather than religious.

surely this result is more a judgement on Arlene Foster’s handling of the RHI scheme and the prospect of a hard brexit than due to a surge in nationalism

Well, SDLP lost votes to SF, and the DUP and UUP appeared to lose votes to more centrist parties like the alliance but in lesser numbers.

Certainly the nationalist vote was energised to s much greater extent than unionist, personally I think that the DUP and AF need to learn some humility sharpish, and start trying to appeal to a younger, smarter electorate. So that means joining the current century on a number of issues

It’s not a majority, imo it’s essentially a vote saying don’t impose a hard border.

A United Ireland imo is inevitable, especially in the wake of Brexit. You’re still 20 years away from it though.

If you look at it though, strategy from Sinn Fein is obvious. Pass the torch on to the next generation and get them ready for that 20 year fight.

Unionist strategy? Arlene foster and flegs? 😆 it’s interesting that the UUP have been hammered they were actually against Brexit i think, so the unionist vote is shrinking, but it’s also consolidating behind the extremely insular faction.

Talk of sending troops in is mental, things have moved on a little.

williamnot

surely this result is more a judgement on Arlene Foster’s handling of the RHI scheme and the prospect of a hard brexit than due to a surge in nationalism

Yes, that’s the main issue. Other issues such as the DUP’s support of Brexit and their blatant discrimination. Foster really put her fut in it by basically categorizing all catholics and nationalists as “crocodiles” with regards to the Irish language act. But mainly RHI.

There was a last minute court order a few hours before poll offices opened which means the main benefactors in the RHI scheme can be named. Too late to influence the election but they would have gotten a real trouncing if the truth had been allowed to come out beforehand.

It’s already clear that it was heavily abused by friends and family of the DUP/Free Presbyterian Chruch/Orange Order.

Talk of sending troops in is mental, things have moved on a little.

Today it might seem so, but who knows where they’ll be in 15 years from now.

Apart from the fringe loonballs, no-one wants to go back to war. And the circumstances are vastly different.

There is a connection between the rise of sectarianism and economic conditions as always, the better the economy the less the violence.

Interesting point and have have noticed this myself previously.
To build in it though I think one really means job and cash in pocket of the average man rather than the economy directly – the are of course normally linked.

Now apply the same thinking to the Brexit question. Would people have voted for it if average wages had recovered to the levels enjoyed under Labour during the coalition or Tory governments?

Always easier to live together as friends when everyone is doing OK.

will NI leave the UK in a few years?

Ohh, let’s hope so.

It’s about time every country split from this unholy mess.

will NI leave the UK in a few years?

Not without a fight. But I hope so too. It would solve that pesky post-Brexit border issue too if it happened sooner rather than later.

n.i. would not survive without the uk. the south can hardly keep itself as it is. i’m sure heaps would not want a united ireland,although if the option came it would be hard to pass up. saying that the benefits/dole are just as good down there as up here.

the reason for the shift is because sinn fein/sdlp are for the people and the moving on in the country, were as the union parties did not want to move forward and were corrupt and lining their own pockets.

It will take the reality of Brexit to really move towards a United Ireland. The NI economy relies heavily on agriculture.

If post – Brexit the level of EU subsidy is not replaced by domestic subsidy there will be an irresistible impetus towards re-unification.

I think that NI will, eventually, reunite, it is just hard to say when. However if the UK economy tanks after leaving the EU (and I think it is safe to say that it will almost certainly at least dip for the first ten years or so) and the RoI carries on doing very well thank you very much then it may well happen sooner rather than later! 🙂

the dali would need to reassess everything if n.i was to reunite. i have relatives who have moved down and they never have a good thing to say about how each industry is run. the health and transport bearing most of the grumbles.

http://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/brexit-means-irish-unity-is-now-inevitable#.WLtjkslviyQ.twitter

For the remainders to blame Brexit you wish will come through. 😛

Let NI leaves if that is the wish of the people.

Let Scotland and Wales leave too if they wish.

Let all the EU nations break up into smaller pieces.

There there … then everyone just mind their own business and peace will prevail.

Thing is though that the nationalists don’t have the majority – the recent election results are more a reflection of how SF have their house in order and the unionist parties are a total shambles at the minute. I’m an NI resident and unionist but there’s no way I’m getting of my arse to go and vote for the corrupt christian fundamentalist shower that are the DUP, or any of the related parties such as the UUP or TUV… They are all as bad as each other…

SF have done well by focusing on common sense policies and moving away from their sectarian and IRA tainted past and I begrudgingly doff my cap to them for that. The sooner we have a unionist party prepared to consider what the voters actually want (gay marriage would be a start but failing that at least an acknowledgement that the earth’s not flat and dinosaurs existed beyond 8 thousand years ago) then the majority unionist vote will stay at home.

Oh, and not all nationalist’s want a united Ireland. Fact is that the Republic can’t afford it right now and many of those nationalists in NI couldn’t stomach the upheaval in the short term, but long term it remains a romantic goal.

This survey from 14 months ago paints a pretty good picture of how the locals view things and I remember politicians from both sides of the border backing up the findings on a local BBC show –

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-34725746

*Obviously it’s a pre-brexit poll so maybe opinions have changed since then depending on views on the EU, but it’s still a pretty good and comprehensive survey of the local electorate.

The sooner we have a unionist party prepared to consider what the voters actually want (gay marriage would be a start but failing that at least an acknowledgement that the earth’s not flat and dinosaurs existed beyond 8 thousand years ago)

Very much this, why is why I was overjoyed to see nelson mcausland lose his seat, shame Jim wells hung on in south down despite a good showing by the alliance party.

Glad to see they’ve lost the ability to use petitions of concern as well

I’ll be living elsewhere if we leave the UK/get a united Ireland. You think Westminster are a shower of useless gits who couldn’t run a p**s up in a brewery? You should visit Stormont.

It’s an interesting ironic state when those that dream of a bigger EU are forcing countries to take nationlist positions ….
Scotland wants independence from England but to be govern by the EU
The Czech RePublic and Slovakia split up.
Presumable Catalonia and the Basque region will be looking on, as will Bavaria. Belgium will split into two states because the French speakers and the Flemish hate each other …

Maybe NI will unite with the South but it will take a few generations more to forget the bigotry of The Trouble!
South Ireland have been offered “Ulster” back 4 times … but has rejected it , as they they knew they could cope. I can’t see that much has changed ….
As ISIl, Bosnia, Rwanda and various other places show, amalgamation of the people who have strongly religious views as their “culture”, doesn’t work well

When Britain creates arbitrary borders it never works out well. They should do whatever is best for the kids even if it stings a few adults.

Scotland wants independence from England but to be govern by the EU

Not quite.
Some of Scotland wants independence from the UK but the majority of it wants to be part of the EU club for independent states that chose to work together.

When was Ireland offered unification 4 times?

I’m just ignoring the rest of the ridiculousness in that post. 😆

South Ireland have been offered “Ulster” back 4 times … but has rejected it , as they they knew they could cope. I can’t see that much has changed …

No they haven’t.

The only time it ever came close to be “offered” was by Churchill in 1940, in exchange for declaring war on Germany.

I’m sure there is some recent polling data suggesting that old style sectarianism is much less important to the younger generation, who have only live through the Good Friday agreement period. Add to that the general desire to stay in the EU in that demographic block, and you have another argument for eventual reunification.