HS2 spiralling costs

Bit of an analogy – imagine you have a house – decent enough place, bit rough around the edges in places maybe. You know that at some point in the next few years, granny is going to have to come and live with you, you’re planning on another child too and the place needs some improvements.

You could tinker around the edges putting a bit more shelving in, moving a wall here or a bathroom there but that’ll take forever and be really messy. So you decide to build a really nice new extension, top of the range. The garden is going to get absolutely trashed while you build it cos of all the machinery but that can be replanted and the rest of the house remains fairly functional while it’s being built.

Once it’s built you’ve got space to move/expand into while the rest of the house gets a makeover, granny will have a nice place, the kids have space to grow etc.

But then you keep changing you mind about the extension and the design, keep making unreasonable requests on the poor workmen who consequently start charging you more then you re-scope to “save costs” but it doesn’t actually save you anything, just extends your repayment period. Meantime, the garden is a wreck, the extension is useless and there’s no economic benefit to anyone.

The original idea was very sound. The implementation and management of it has been terrible.

It would be nice but we have fast modern trains (ish)

I was quite surprised at how long it took to get from Glasgow to Edinburgh that one time.

@tjagain do you actually want a high speed rail network? Like say the French have?

I was quite surprised at how long it took to get from Glasgow to Edinburgh that one time.

New trains since then  48 mins now which is OK at 60 mph average incuding stops  tops out at 100 mph.  Northern England needs something similar

Yes I would like high speed rail – but its way down the priorities.  Before that we need a 20th century rail network across the north of england.  dual lines on the highland lines. Electrification of all lines etc etc.  Plenty to do.  And of course this is pretty useless as a high speed  line – outskirts of london to Birmingham

Yes I would like high speed rail – but its way down the priorities. Before that we need a 20th century rail network across the north of england. dual lines on the highland lines. Electrification of all lines etc etc

That’s basically the same thing. As said, upgrading the existing lines is extremely difficult as well.

And of course this is pretty useless as a high speed line – outskirts of london to Birmingham

It’s the first part… Thing is you can criticise the implementation, for sure, but make sure you are doing that and not the actual concept of a modern rail network, which is what you want. For us to have a complete network we will need a new West Coast main line and that will require a London to Birmingham step.

If antis such as yourself keep up the pressure against it, then that’s all we’ll have. It’ll get canned due to popular pressure, which is what we’re facing now. On the other hand, if people campaign for a modern rail network, then this won’t end up being the only bit and we’ll get where we need to be.

48 mins to cover 48 miles isn’t that quick.

I will never support this project.  Its completely unneeded for a modern railway network indeed it makes it harder as its sucked up all the money.  so we get 21st century trains on 70 miles (???)  and 19th century infrastructure on most of the the rest.

Other projects would have gone further to your goal of a modern railway network with fr greater benefit for the cost.  this was never about anything but politicians bragging rights and increasing the size of the london comutter area

What is needed is modern signalling and electrification and updating northern rail network.  Not this.  I want a modern rail network YUK wide not a commutter line

Hows your trains in Wales MOlgrips?

It’s the first part…

HS2

Its completely unneeded for a modern railway network

Since when are you an expert on rail though, seriously?

so we get 21st century trains on 70 miles (???) and 19th century infrastructure on most of the the rest.

But you have to start somewhere, don’t you?

Hows your trains in Wales MOlgrips?

Being upgraded as we speak but what’s that got to do with anything? Are you suggesting I campaign to link Carmarthen and Aberystwyth directly, or take an hour off the time from Cardiff to Caernarfon because it’s of greater benefit to the nation than linking the biggest and second biggest cities?

May I remind you that Birmingham and London between them have around three times the population of Wales and 30 times the population of Cardiff. London is nearly a thousand times bigger than Caernarfon 🙂

I’m against the project, especially so with the ever rising costs going into the realm of beyond ridiculous (a tenth of a trillion??). There are valid arguments on both sides but I just don’t believe it’s the right thing to prioritise now.

As has been said time and time again, *most* people in Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Newcastle etc and the surrounding areas want to be able to travel between those places more efficiently and if there is only enough political will to spend on doing that or on building HS2 at one given time, I think most would say they’d rather have improved local links *first*.

Some of the mistakes HS2 Ltd have made are embarrassing and naive, things like forgetting that 6 miles of tightly packed underground pipework, cabling, networks, water and gas supplies under West London would need moved first to build the tunnel section. It can be tens of millions just to redirect one major fibre optic cable in a densely populated city like London.

Things like passing risk onto contractors therefore getting very high prices back for work packages then realising it was better to take the risk off them but only years into the project.

Failing to appreciate that house and land prices rise over time and not compulsory purchasing everything on the route as soon as possible has meant the cost of that has risen astronomically.

Since when are you an expert on rail though, seriously?

since when do you need to be an exper4t to state the obvious.  In the north of England they have pacer trains doing 45 mph on victorian lines.  thats where the most bang for the buck is

I have also listened a lot to folk who know

the point is that once again Londonand its commuters get all the infrastructiure and no one else in England gets any.

If they wanted to build a modern railway for the UK lets have 100 mph trains in the north of England first please.   East west links first then the north south lines working from manchester north and south

this is nothing to do with gaining a modern railway in the UK – its a vanity project for politicians to preen over

I’d like to see far more investment in rail – in the places its actually needed

HS2 may be a total waste of money, according to Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who said he wishes that it had never got under way in the first place.

Speaking to Times Radio, Johnson said:

This whole thing, it just makes me want to weep. It just makes me despair. I mean, the original sin, as it were, was agreeing to do it in the first place.

It was obviously going to be hugely expensive, with relatively little gain from it relative to pretty much anything else you could have done with the railway or transport system, whether that’s making rail connections across the north vastly better or actually building a bunch of bypasses and improving the roundabouts in the road network. And we knew that this was not the best way you could spend that amount of money. We also know how difficult we find it to build these projects.

I just, as I say, wish it had never happened in the first place.

It rather looks like we’re going to totally waste the money on this in producing a rail at a cost of tens of billions which will get you from Birmingham to central London less quickly than you can do at the moment.

I’ve just found myself in the terrifying predicament of agreeing with John Redwood 😳

https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1705829699190927650?s=20

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/25/rishi-sunak-hs2-politics-britain

HS2 was always financially marginal, and for those asking the doubters to think about the freed up capacity, well that should have been in the calculations (and let’s face it, the promoters would have thrown in any benefit they can think of to help make the case).  So we shouldn’t be surprised to find a shift in the variables has tipped this one into the red.  Despite the money spent already it’s probably best to stop, to literally throw away the spade.  As a lifetime southern commuter who has made the occasional foray to the north by rail, the chronic inadequacies of the trans Pennine are there for all to see and surely must represent a better bang for our buck.

since when do you need to be an exper4t to state the obvious.

‘We’re sick of experts’ 😂

If you’re going to spend tens of billions, carve up the countryside, suburbs and inner cities, and displace thousands of people who live or work on the route then you absolutely need to be an expert to make that decision. And not just one expert, but dozens/hundreds of them because no single person has the knowledge or experience to make the decision on their own. Have you any idea how much work goes into getting to the point where the decision can be made? They should have just given you a call rather than spending millions doing research and commissioning reports. 🙄

If a project is going over budget, change the way it’s used. Don’t just can the whole thing – that will waste even more money.

If the project management is crap, then it would be just as bad on any other rail project…

It’s also not a choice between HS2 and ‘something else’. We can have both.

It’s also not a choice between HS2 and ‘something else’. We can have both.

Really?  Where is the plan and the funding for northern rail?  Start date?  HS2 has sucked up billions of public money that could have been spent far more wisely for greater benefit for more people

When youhgave limited funding then its one or the other

Wasnt this fundamentally about capacity, the West Coast mainline is maxed out, the only option was a new route, the speed bit was just a bonus. Its been politically mismanaged from day 1 and Sunak sees scrapping it as a win to appease the Nimbys who ironically still get London to Birmingham.

Anyway scrapping this wont free up money for trans pennine services.

It’s also not a choice between HS2 and ‘something else’. We can have both.

It is a choice between though, otherwise we would just do everything we need for the next fifty years all at once.

It would be interesting to know how much of HS2 spend is because we have gone for the gold plated super high speed option rather than a very useful and efficient modern option.  But the cost of re-engineering is probably too high at this stage.

extra capacity can be gained by modern signalling. but that does not give a nice big mega infrastructure project for politicians to preen in front of

Really? Where is the plan and the funding for northern rail? Start date?

It’s already happening. They’re spending 3bn on the Transpennine Route Upgrade. I’ve told you this before but you’re not listening. It’s only one part of what is required but it’s a start.

It is a choice between though

The choice is mostly driven by the capacity of the engineering and construction industry to deliver it. Cost is not really an issue.

It’s already happening. They’re spending 3bn on the Transpennine Route Upgrade. I’ve told you this before but you’re not listening. It’s only one part of what is required but it’s a start.

Happening or someone has said it will?  Its a tiny part of what is needed anyway.

Happening or someone has said it will?

Happening right now (for the past few years in fact). Either that or I’ve just imagined the 100 or so engineers in my office who are working on it. Yes it’s a small part, but probably the most significant and desperately needed. You have to start somewhere, and you can’t do everything at once because there aren’t enough engineers and contractors to design and build this stuff. I think you massively underestimate the scale of these projects.

As has been said time and time again, *most* people in Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Newcastle etc and the surrounding areas want to be able to travel between those places more efficiently and if there is only enough political will to spend on doing that or on building HS2 at one given time, I think most would say they’d rather have improved local links *first*.

All of the improvements in the north were entirely predicated on having HS2 in full.
Northern Powerhouse Rail (“HS3” if you like) doesn’t work without it. The runs out of Manchester and Leeds relied on HS2 infrastructure because the existing routes out are already at (and often over) capacity. You cannot improve that – there isn’t the space to do so. It absolutely needed new lines and platforms dedicated to HS so the freed-up capacity could then accommodate more local / regional trains.

ALL the “levelling up” stuff for the north was already mostly hot air but any last remnants of it will be dead and buried if HS2 doesn’t go to at the very least Manchester.

You mean they have started digging?  Its going to provide 100 mph trains from Liverpool to hull with branches to other cities?

Yes it’s a small part, but probably the most significant and desperately needed. You have to start somewhere, and you can’t do everything at once because there aren’t enough engineers and contractors to design and build this stuff. I think you massively underestimate the scale of these projects.

You said in an earlier post that HS2 was essential to keep those civil engineering skills as the northern stuff was not big enough.  Make your mind up.

For example, we could properly tax Oil and gas company profits over the last year, instead of letting Shell/BP off the hook. There’s a bit of revenue for public transport projects. Or a tax on pollution, there’s a bit more. Or a tax on getting rich.

HS2 is not a business proposal, it’s public spending. That’s what the govt should be doing. Rishi Sunak needs a slap for not getting involved and examining why it’s costing so much. Abandoning something 1/2way through is just the wrong answer.

Never mind duelling the north Scottish lines (HGL, ANI, WCK, OBN, I’ll leave KYL and TSO out) what they need to do is stick in loads of access gates and cut the veg back oh and places to cross the line. I’d be happy with that. So much of my job is hampered by not being able to walk lineside but not on or near the line.

Tangent over.

You mean they have started digging?

Yup, initial works have already started at the western end and the design is continuing on the later phases.

Its going to provide 100 mph trains from Liverpool to hull with branches to other cities?

It’s electrifying the Manchester – Leeds – York line and widening it to provide crawler lanes for local trains so they don’t hold up the expresses, along with station and signalling upgrades. Why are you fixated on 100mph? Manc to Leeds is only 30 miles, it’s not required.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transpennine_Route_Upgrade

Make your mind up.

It’s all needed. You can’t do it all at once though.

sunk cost fallacy finephilly.  why throw good money after bad?  Why not cut losses?

Its was never intended to go anywhere near manchester.IMO.  That was clear from the outset

It’s all needed. You can’t do it all at once though.

You said HS2 was essential for maintaining skills.  You said northern rail was not a big enough project to do so.  Now you state northern rail is too big to do at the same time.  You cannot have that both ways

sounds good tho what is planned

100 mph trains is IMO the sign of a modern railway.  Of course its good on Manc to leeds.  Edinburgh Glasgow is only 45 miles ish – it has 100 mph trains now and anecdotally is used more than the old slower train

You said HS2 was essential for maintaining skills. You said northern rail was not a big enough project to do so. Now you state northern rail is too big to do at the same time. You cannot have that both ways

Give it up man. You’re seriously all over the place on this, claiming nothing is happening when you don’t even realise there’s a 3bn programme being built right now to do exactly what you said isn’t happening because of HS2. At the end of the day all you have to do is look at the current infrastructure, then look at a map, and start to join the dots. HS2 is needed, TRU and the IRP is needed, along with other future schemes, probably HS3 and 4 to take High speed to Glasgow, Leeds, Newcastle and Edinburgh. That won’t happen though if they cancel HS2 to Manc. It’s a simple question of do we want to progress into the future, or be stuck in the past?

100 mph trains is IMO the sign of a modern railway.

In *your* opinion. Not necessarily in the opinion of industry experts though, although you’ve already said we don’t need them.

NO – the question is – does HS2 move us towards a modern UK railway system?  The answer of course is it does not in any significant way.  the money could have been much better spent on other projects that would benefit far more folk.  HS2 is a huge white elephant.  always was going to be.  It was never going to go north of Birmingham – that was obvious from the start

Now how about you wanting this both ways on the skills?  Its you that is all over the place on this.  Firstly claiming HS2 was needed to maintain skills and Northern rail projects were far too small now you claim Northern rail is so big it cannot be done at the same time.  which is it?

although you’ve already said we don’t need them.

Stop making shit up – I never said that.  will you answer whether northern rail is too small to keep the skills required as you said – or too big to do at the same time as you also said?  Which is it?

Although it is Government spending as a taxpayer I certainly want to see some sort of cost benefit analysis for a capital project.  Yep, the sunk cost fallacy should stop this thing now.  But it really needs to be counterbalanced by an upgraded commitment to HS3.  Can’t we make HS3 the core commitment to our upgraded rail infrastructure – HS standard lines etc – from which we build on in future generations?

I do love this.  According to Dazh 100 mph trains are not needed on northern lines ‘cos the stations are not that far apart – but somehow 250 mph is essential for the short bit from london outskirts to Birmingham. which is under 100 miles

but somehow 250 mph is essential for the short bit from london outskirts to Birmingham. which is under 100 miles

Oh FFS TJ, are you being deliberately intransigent?! Actually, don’t answer that, I already know…

To be fair, the whole thing started off badly when they insisted on 250mph trains – 200mph would have been fine and a lot cheaper because rail gets exponentially more expensive once you start going above about 180mph. It makes a lot more sense with a longer line too. Putting 250mph trains on a 100 mile track is like putting an F1 car on the shopping run. Makes no sense at all but if you’ve got a 300 mile journey up a motorway then I’ll take the F1 car thanks!

For reference TGV and Bullet Train are both about 200mph “cruising” (although both capable of significantly more) so why the UK “needs” 250mph is questionable in the extreme other than the ability for some dickhead politician to stand up and say “world beating!” and “world leading!” Just “basically functional” will do just fine thanks…

Regional rail is difficult to get much above 100mph because of the short distances between stations although you can get a bit of extra speed by missing some out. Electrification helps with the speed because they can accelerate far quicker than diesel trains.

All that said – it is still desperately needed for all the reasons of capacity and future proofing and connectivity and reducing reliance on private cars. That doesn’t alter the fact that, like almost everything else in this country it’s been catastrophically badly managed, used as a political football and mis-represented, mis-marketed and mis-sold to the general public for decades. Hence people on here still banging on about “whY d0 I ne3d T0 geT t0 L0nDon 20 m1nutEs fa5tEr?!

Point well missed…

I can’t believe we have two insiders actually working on this on the thread and TJ is still trying to tell them he knows best.

EDIT wait no I can

It’s alright anyway. Rishi has just been on the news. It doesn’t matter if the North gets no high speed rail, apparently they’re going to fix some pot holes.

Possibly…

They’ll probably cancel that too

Guys play nicely, everyone is entitled to their view…

MOilgrips – many agree with my points and nothing Dazh has siad about it all adds up.  He is claiming HS2 is essential for skills retention – but northern rail is not as its too small a project.  But northern rail cannot be done at the same time because of staffing issues – its one of the other.  I am not arguing about the technical 0- but the political aspects of this.  MOlgrips – how about you listen before dismissing – this is about the politics not the technicalitires

Crqzy legs agrees with me that the decision to make it high speed is political and not needed.

so why the UK “needs” 250mph is questionable in the extreme other than the ability for some dickhead politician to stand up and say “world beating!” and “world leading!” Just “basically functional” will do just fine thanks…

Crazylegs – yes of course they need to be electrified!  glasgow / edinburgh is usually 3 or 4 stops in 45 miles and the modern rolling stock took a big chunk of the time off.  I didn’t say over 100 mph.  I just suggested that as what modern railways should be capable of not 50 mph.

the issues with HS2 are NOT technical – they are political.