HS2 spiralling costs

And it’s painfully clear we can have one, but not both

Nah, we can have both. We need both. Political choice to leave the North behind, again.

Jam tomorrow… forever… it just makes everything cost more, and delays (sometimes seemingly indefinitely) the benefits…

"Delaying projects – whether it’s train lines or hospitals – doesn’t make them cheaper, it only holds back economic benefits and increases the overall scheme costs further in the long run."@henrimurison responds to the announcement about delays to the HS2 network ? pic.twitter.com/AF1I8Up9vZ

— The Northern Powerhouse Partnership (@NP_Partnership) March 9, 2023

Agree with that… except for the “protected” status of the MCR link. That’ll probably get put outside the scope of HS2 eventually as well.

Yes. Not building/improving infra is a false economy.

Assuming half decent due diligence has been done, the economic growth resulting results in a higher tax take.

Not doing this, or adequately funding active travel or mass transit, is a political choice. Question is how much do they care as they’ve pretty much given up on winning the next election anyway.

You reckon?

If you conducted a poll to see where people up here wanted infrastructure investment to go

A) improve and upgrade the crumbling rail network in the north

B) HS2

I can assure you you’ll only get one answer. And it’s painfully clear we can have one, but not both

You’d get a similar unanimous answer to the question ‘do you believe HS2 will ever get north of Birmingham?’

Maybe it’s you who needs to look at your prejudices?

We’re all funding a ludicrously expensive white elephant that will, once again, exclusively benefit London. All while the public transport infrastructure in the north continues to collapse through being starved of even the most minuscule levels of investment

Firstly, exactly what Kelvin said.

Secondly – this is not far off what a losing team on The Apprentice does. The project was badly marketed (“20 mins off a journey from Birmingham to London…”) Big whoop, no-one cares.

The branding was off and in fact, “HS2” now as a name has become synonymous with waste, poor management, spiralling costs. Kind of like The Millenium Dome although that eventually got itself back on track after a name change, rebrand and someone came up with some commercially viable ideas for it.

And the management (largely from a political angle) has been terrible. Limited buy-in, constant changes of scope, constant reviews and re-reviews…

It’s the standard British way of doing things. Claim it’ll be world-leading, world-beating, a world-first. Wait for reality to collide with those lofty ambitions then cut it back and back and back. Over-promise and under-deliver, every time. The UK, while it has genuinely expert engineers and architects, simply cannot do infrastructure once politics gets involved.

Happens with so much – Edinburgh Trams?

It took about 15 years for the Manchester Metrolink expansion to happen, and even then that was short of what was originally promised.

It took about 15 years for the Manchester Metrolink expansion to happen, and even then that was short of what was originally promised.

They put all their eggs in the basket of a congestion charge (the funds of which would then go to building the extension) and held a referendum on it. As we all know, referendums are catastrophically stupid ideas and sure enough the idiot public voted it down.

So suddenly they had no funding and no real prospect of getting any so the idea sat in the drawer for years while they begged successive transport ministers (and various private sector developers including Manchester Airport themselves) for some cash. That was the main delay – marginally less to do with politics other than the politics of having a **** referendum. Idiots.

Nottingham did it right; they introduced a Workplace Parking Levy and used the funds from that to build their tram network. Actually did it very well and relatively quickly but they’re a unitary authority and they had the cash so it didn’t rely on Westminster cluttering things up.

Edinburgh – yes, you’re right that was entirely political and a complete fiasco.

what HS2 factually was

🤣
Where to even start with that…

Maybe we should just concentrate on what it factually is, which is a bunch of pipe dreams and empty promises, destroyed countryside, and billions of pounds of public money spaffed up the wall, a wall which shaped cleverly to funnel said ejaculate into the pockets of the already wealthy.

@crazy-legs Yes and no. The Metrolink expansion was on the cards as far back as 1998, well before the congestion charge.

“How would you feel about trams into the very heart of Rochdale” was a bloody stupid way of selling the CC though. It seems possible/likely that GMCA are going to go down the workplace parking levy route though, but given the CAZ nonsense I doubt they’ve learned anything.

My dad reckons the full Edinburgh tram network will ultimately happen. But of course by delaying it loads, it’ll cost far more than it would have done to JFDI in the first place.

Good thread on HS2 here:

1/ A ?on the latest HS2 debacle and why it matters – not just to London but to the country as a whole.

— Nick Bowes (@nickbowes1975) March 10, 2023

Does this mean the PR was based on speed?

No, business cases, based on the economic value of time saved. I suppose that 20 minutes may be of benefit to station cafes, but I doubt it’s going to cover construction costs.

The UK, while it has genuinely expert engineers and architects, simply cannot do infrastructure once politics gets involved.

Short-termisms of our political system largely to blame there. Grand hoo-hah, launch project, next GE comes along, someone does an about face and whips the rug out from under the project.

5 years isn’t enough time for a project like this to get out of bed and take a shit.

As we all know, referendums are catastrophically stupid ideas and sure enough the idiot public voted it down.

Depends how they are phrased really.

If it sounds like “would you like to poke a middle finger at johnny foreigner?” “Would you like some cake?” then 52% of people most people will say “yes”.

I think you’re mistaking your own opinion for that of the whole of the north, and you’re mistaking your own rusted-on prejudices about HS2 for about what HS2 factually was (which has been explained to you by numerous people numerous times on this thread).

Horseshit.
.

We’re all funding a ludicrously expensive white elephant that will, once again, exclusively benefit London. All while the public transport infrastructure in the north continues to collapse through being starved of even the most minuscule levels of investment

Completely and irrefutably true.

PS, sorry for being rude. And I realise my argument wasn’t very well presented or articulated, but TBH it will make sod all difference.

If you conducted a poll to see where people up here wanted infrastructure investment to go

A) improve and upgrade the crumbling rail network in the north

B) HS2

I can assure you you’ll only get one answer.

Well, yeah, if you asked people a stupid question based on a false premise you’d get a self-interested answer. Northern rail is shit. It’s not shit because HS2 was happening, and the North doesn’t need an HS2 type solution.

You can keep repeating sAvInG 15 MiNs fOr lOnDoN cOmMuTeRs for as long as you like, but that doesn’t make it a sensible criticism. Phase 1 of HS2 has always been about adding capacity and reliability to some of the busiest rail in Europe, and which serves a population (Midlanders, flatlanders, and hated colonic latte-consuming Londoners) almost twice as large as the whole population of NE England, NW England and Yorks.

It’s not shit because HS2 was happening

Well… it is, isn’t it?

Because every other piece of rail infrastructure has been binned so that the black hole that is HS2 can suck in all the funding.

Remember that we were promised massive rail investment by a certain Mr G Osbourne as part of the Northerrn Powerhouse fairy tale. All of canned once HS2 was given the go ahead

And for what?

So you can get to Milton Keynes a bit quicker from the Midlands?

The whole thing is now a total farce!

Well… it is, isn’t it?

No, as explained by Kelvin above.

And for what?

So you can get to Milton Keynes a bit quicker from the Midlands?

No, as explained by numerous people to you before.

The whole thing is now a total farce!

Yes. Thanks, Red Wall Tories. Hope the Brexiteer northerners vote for you again. 🙄

Sometimes transport projects work. The Queensferry Crossing seemed to go pretty well and within budget?

as an aside from the bickering above, interesting to see HS2 works in action:

Phase 1 of HS2 has always been about adding capacity and reliability

So you’re saying that the economic value of time saved didn’t form part of the business case?

This report says that £20bn of £28bn total benefits for phase 1 are attributed to time saving.

This report says that £20bn of £28bn total benefits for phase 1 are attributed to time saving

Yes, but only because it didn’t even attempt to price the benefits of relieving capacity and resiliency on the existing rail network. They thought the benefits stacked up based on the HS2 ticket sales alone, and didn’t attempt to include it in calculation of the BCR. Had it been included (and if there were any sensible away to calculate it) the BCR would have been higher. The failure to improve capacity and resiliency on existing network was used to challenge the alternatives to HS2.

As an aside – the optimism bias and risk assumptions paragraphs are pretty “hilarious” in retrospect.

Yes, but only because it didn’t even attempt to price the benefits of relieving capacity and resiliency on the existing rail network.

Hang on, you said that HS2 isn’t about time saving, yet here is an OBC saying exactly that. That they didn’t price other benefits isn’t relevant.

you said that HS2 isn’t about time saving

No, I didn’t. HTH (and saves you time).

Lol at the people still arguing for HS2!

It was shit from the outset and has got worse and worse.

I’m in favour of upgrading the rail network. But HS2 was and is all about London.

It’s understandable that a new HS2 line will have one end in London. The investment is likely to be justified more quickly, that’s where the only other HS line goes to, it has the highest population, biggest economy etc. The other end in Birmingham as the UK’s 2nd city makes sense too.
Investment in lines further North could be used for ‘levelling up’.
A new rail line benefits society as a whole, providing accessible transport for all and helps reduce congestion on roads.
The ecology can recover from the construction aswell.
If a project is wasting money. The answer is to identify and reduce the wastage. Where has the $100bn gone? Is it being spent effectively? That’s the real issue.

Deleted, too much bile.

The north was promised direct trains to Paris via ECML and HS1, still waiting.

I’m still of the opinion its highly unlikely any high speed trains will actually ever run on it in anythig like the formpromised – and the governments own watchdog seems to agree

HS2 is officially ‘unachievable’ after being given red rating

Problems with first two phases, from London to Birmingham and then to Crewe, ‘do not appear to be resolvable’

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/30/hs2-officially-unachievable-red-rating-problems-london-birmingham

Ah, was just coming to unearth this thread again but beaten to it!

Yep – one long list of cock ups and ineptitude. This Government can’t do major projects, it’s just a catalogue of stupidity and short-termism. No ambition, no ability, no long-term thought. Useless cretins.

I’m more cynical – its just a vehicle to pump money to their pals.  there was never any intention to take it north of Birmingham in any case – that was obvious from the start.

the only sensible way would have been to build it from the north to the south.  Same money spent on lines between Scotland Manchester and birmingham would have created much more benefit for many more people and they would not have cancelled a southern extension

During the time this farce has been going on in Scotland we have reopened several old closed lines, electrified one of the main lines and upgraded stations.  I know its much easier but even so – it shows that infrastructure can be done with clear aims.

Don’t worry Rishi is going to solve transportation issues by reviewing LTNs, it’s all in good hands folks…

Electrifying the existing network has surely got to be a priority?

I’m not going to argue on the validity of HS2.  I think the UK does need it if you have serious aspirations to move freight and people round the country , and yes, the London bit needs doing.  It doesn’t mean other stuff hasn’t been neglected though.

What’s interesting and worrying is it seems the UK cannot manage infrastructure projects anymore.  The country needs to relearn how to do them as the knowledge apparently isn’t there or is forgotten.

You only have to look at how shoddily the current government have treated Eurostar to see how little they think of rail travel.

Apparently a large part of the current problem has been a reticence to spend the money on getting things done, instead putting them off which has caused costs to spiral.

England cannot manage infrastructure projects.  We have up here.

Crossrail?  has that worked ok?  I know it sucked up huge amounts of money.

We have up here.

How are the ferries?

A9 dualling?

A96 dualling?

Rest and be thankful?

That report just confirms what anyone with anything between their ears has been saying about this monstrous white elephant from day one

It’s just going to end up as a £150 billion+ commuter line from Birmingham to somewhere in the general vicinity of London, probably some time around 2050

The whole sorry thing should never have been started in the first place and now nobody has got the bollocks to do the obvious and scrap the whole shambolic mess, because they’re in the thrall of consultants and all their mates are on the multibillion pound gravy train

So they’ll just carry on throwing tens of billions of taxpayers money at the huge pointless money pit, while every other transport project around the UK is downgraded or scrapped altogether to cover the ballooning costs

Cost of Euston HS2 terminus could race past £4.8bn estimate, MPs say

Cup half empty again? 🙂   Borders railway, Queensferry crossing,  bathgate line.  Even the ruddy Edinburgh trams are now in operation and working well

Are there problems with the dualling thats been done on the A9?  The main issue was there all the money got spent on the Edinburgh trams so progress is slower – but not because of idiocy ( unless you count the trams as that) but just slower than most of us would have liked

OK its not perfect and anything can be cocked up – and the ferries fiasco is a disgrace

Crossrail? has that worked ok? I know it sucked up huge amounts of money.

Yes and no – it HAS worked, but rather too well. Result being that some of the interchange stations are getting a bit “oops we should have made this bigger…” already.

The utter stupidity of ending HS2 at Old Oak Common and relying on an interchange there with CrossRail while they build the “we’re still debating how many platforms it should have” Euston isn’t going to help matters on CrossRail either.

But yes, as a general principle, CrossRail shows how, if you actually properly invest in something and build it to plan, it pays off almost immediately. The latest figures I saw was the CrossRail now accounts for 1 in every 6 rail journeys in London (it’s counted as a railway, not a Tube line, so ridership on the Underground isn’t included in that figure).

Well… it is, isn’t it?

Because every other piece of rail infrastructure has been binned so that the black hole that is HS2 can suck in all the funding.

Remember that we were promised massive rail investment by a certain Mr G Osbourne as part of the Northerrn Powerhouse fairy tale. All of canned once HS2 was given the go ahead

Don’t worry Rishi is going to solve transportation issues by reviewing LTNs, it’s all in good hands folks…

Electrifying the existing network has surely got to be a priority?

You’d think; the GWR London to Bristol main line has been electrified as far as Swindon, then goes onto another line across to Bristol Parkway. The section that runs on through Chippenham and Bath to Bristol had a huge amount of money spent, Box Tunnel had the entire railbed lowered to allow the wires to run along the roof, and the trains run through with the pantographs raised, all the road bridges had to be raised, causing major inconvenience for locals due to road closures, station canopies and footbridges had to be raised. The scaffolding that carries the high-voltage lines stops at Chippenham, the work stopped two years or so ago, and no sign of any further construction being carried out since. We get the swanky new trains, and they are really nice to travel on, but they’re diesel powered on our stretch from Swindon, the rail company had to buy hybrid trains to allow any to use the last section, otherwise they’d have to use old InterCity 125’s!
I wonder why the work has stopped?

As a wider thing, there’s 244 projects in the full Major Projects Portfolio and 23 are rated red/unachievable. How in hell do you have 1/10th of all of your most important projects this broken? You’d hope HS2 is exceptional but it only really stands out for the enormous amount that was sunk into it and the irreversible damage done before they finally admitted the wheels had come off. Go back to 2019 and there were only 4 rated red.

That’s actually a slight decrease on red projects since last year (though the biggest one to leave red was just quietly changed to “exempt” rather than actually improving) but despite that, the amount of money tied up in the currently unachievable projects has soared from £62.5 billion to £94 billion in just one year. But of course “there’s no money”. The cost of the total portfolio is up to £805bn, which in itself is no bad thing but this tells us that of the £127bn in new spending authorised, a quarter was poured directly into the 23 failing ones. And again that avoids the “exempt” ones of which at least a couple are equally massive money pits and directly related to red ones. “too big to fail” and vanity projects rule.

In fairness it should be said that Crossrail was in red for a couple of years, and came through, Red projects aren’t always doomed. OTOH the Dreadnought project is inexplicably yellow even though the project to build the reactors for the subs is red, so apparently those are going to be sail powered or something.