HS2 spiralling costs

I can’t see the logic of building the Eastern leg of HS2 as far as the East Midlands and not continuing it as far as Sheffield and Leeds.

Bradford has been particularly shafted by the duplicitous Johnson, who only a couple of months ago was promising that the Eastern leg of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail were definitely happening despite some rumours surfacing about them being scrapped. It’s the 7th largest city and has crap rail connectivity.

who only a couple of months ago was promising that the Eastern leg of HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail were definitely happening

I wasn’t. https://t.co/1WFwOY16ge

— Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) November 18, 2021

Your Bradford comment is spot on.

Double deckers

Certainly not an option on GWR! A huge amount of time and money was spent on Box Tunnel, needing to lower the whole rail bed in order to get the wiring for electrification in place, and then the whole electrification process just stopped at Swindon, being concentrated on the northern route to Bristol Parkway, so Chippenham and Bath still have the trains, because they’re diesel/electric, but no electric. In order for the overhead gantries and wires to be installed, loads of bridges had to be rebuilt with ugly concrete or steel bridges, and stations have to be heavily modified to raise roofs and footbridges/passenger access put in by Brunel to take the trains – double-deck trains are just impossible to accommodate. And much of it still hasn’t been started.

The new triple decker ‘coffin trains’ are the answer. Everyone lying flat in a 2ft high slot.

Appropriate for wage slaves I suppose.

I’ve very mixed views on this.

I live and ride near what would have been the Toton HS2 hub. I’m 52 years old. Building HS2 would have disrupted my local riding and my commute to work for much of the rest of my life, realistically. Might finally gave properly separated the Nottingham/Derby divide.

It’s great that the Tories are getting a kicking for breaking the initial promise to level up. But I can see how IF the promised funding for alternative schemes in the North is delivered, it may actually deliver more benefits and more quickly for people up there.

“If” is doing all the lifting in that sentence, obviously.

I presume you commute by car then? The “alternative schemes” will disrupt commuter services for years in a way the new lines would not. Upgrading lines means engineering works while they are ongoing (and they always take longer than estimated in government plans), and even once completed, having higher capacity and faster long distance services on those lines will mean clashes with stopping commuter services at stations and on lines.

Yep and without newines it means more freight on the roads too

Its a tricky one to decide which way I sit on this too. I always thought HS2 was arse about face. As per previous posts it was kinda obvious that starting from London meant by the time it reached the midlands the northern leg would be at risk as money was siphoned into the pit that was the southern leg. On the flip side the gov’t is pushing us into a position of transport poverty as the drive to eradicate fossil fuel cars will likely leave many without realistic & reliable transport options going forward. Urban areas without the space to charge vehicles, higher electric car prices as battery components start to become more scarce, ranges of vehicles topping out, extortionate rail fares (coupled with high electricity costs) as we pay for these new train lines.

Its all adding up to a big mess down the line and this might actually be the right choice (to try and do something quick now) but it seems like they took their merry time and a shed load of money to spot the obvious flaws in the plan.

It’s the 7th largest city and has crap rail connectivity.

The whole of the UK has crap rail connectivity unless you want to get to/from London. I recall watching a pretty compelling economics lecture a while ago (not usually my subject for entertainment). It clearly showed a correlation between the economic prosperity of a location with its degree of connectivity (how well connected that node is on a topology graph). It seemed to apply to road, rail, shipping, air, water/sewage, telephone, internet – every layer of technology through time enhanced the prosperity of the well connected nodes at the expense of the less connected nodes.

If Boris’ real objectives are:
– helping the rest of the country be as prosperous as the SE
– saving the union
– fixing the logistics mess caused by Brexit
– tackling climate change

He needs to ensure maximum interconnectivity of the whole of the UK. I’d be surprised if that means one scheme or the other. A proper rail infrastructure would mean you could drive a truck onto a train at various hubs around the UK (perhaps each within 2 hrs drive of >90-95% of the population) and pop out in France/Belgium (or anywhere on the continent). That moves the logistics bottlenecks away from the ports, moves transport to a greener format, and makes commercial opportunities for business around the country. BUT if he really is keen to save the Union his infrastructure needs to at least connect Wales and Scotland AND at least a decent port for connecting to (Northern) Ireland.

The nuance often missed in this is that high-speed isn’t necessarily about shaving 15 minutes off a Birmingham MP’s weekly commute, its about making capacity for the slower speed local commuters, and freight. Even if the revised plans are better at achieving the above objectives (I don’t know I’ve not seen any modelling of either just political bluster) then they’ve made an unmitigated disaster of announcing it. Having seen, for example, the impact of electrification on commuter lines it will in 5 years have a positive individual impact on those who already commute but only after inflicting 2-3 years of misery on them. That misery will drive more people to just drive because its easier and create a stigma with rail that stops others who should benefit from it adopting it. Thats all too late to convince the “Northern Commuter” that boris is acting for them. I wonder what he’s going to pull out his bag of political bribes to convince them to vote Blue next time.

He needs to ensure maximum interconnectivity of the whole of the UK.

I don’t believe that was ever a goal of this whole scheme.

(An example of how archaic and chaotic the rail service in the north is, it requires a walk between stations in Glasgow…)

(An example of how archaic and chaotic the rail service in the north is, it requires a walk between stations in Glasgow…)

And Bradford, Manchester, Exeter, etc.

In fact I’m glad in one way I don’t live in Bradford any more as they’ve been royally shafted. Go see Bradford Interchange and then look at Kings Cross. Stations from different centuries.

He needs to ensure maximum interconnectivity of the whole of the UK.

Given the massive opposition to the first step towards a decent link, it’s likely to be the general public that puts paid to that idea.

Interesting document here about the congestion in Manchester (basically can’t fit any more trains in!):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/951401/manchester-recovery-task-force-public-consultation.pdf

Interesting document here about the congestion in Manchester (basically can’t fit any more trains in!):
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/951401/manchester-recovery-task-force-public-consultation.pdf

I’m reasonably closely involved in the MRTF. It’s a bit of a dogs dinner to be honest, a whole range of compromises and proposals that suit no one. Sheffield (my main involvement) loses its direct service to Manchester airport as a result.

As you say the main problem is lack of track and platforms for through running services. It’s been a known capacity bottleneck for years which hasn’t been tackled but is now biting people on the arse.

Be interesting to see who gets to buy the compulsorily-purchased land now.

I wonder if any of the consultancies or large companies will have liquidated damages or compensation with the cancellation, shouldn’t be, but this is always a sign of how much of a cash cow the contract is.

Quick question, why stop the line at Marsden and not take it into Huddersfield just a few miles further?

It’s cheaper. They’d stop it earlier, but that’s where the tunnel entrance is. This is all about cutting spending plans, and the vast majority of those cuts hitting Yorkshire to minimise their negative effects further South.

[ Also, the new line was supposed to route towards Bradford from there, not Huddersfield. The line to Huddersfield was to be upgraded not augmented, and that’s still happening … it’s part of the “new” upgrading (re)announced to distract from Yorkshire now getting no new lines at all, beyond that in the tunnel entrance. Pretty much the opposite of what has been promised for years by the two slippery untrustworthy individuals in the most powerful posts in government. ]

argee – what’s been canned was so far into the future that, unless DfT were monumentally stupid, there wouldn’t be any contractual commitments so no LDs or other comp.

I know it’s all about cutting costs but either do something or don’t, if it’s not going to Bradford / Huddersfield then just sack off the whole branch. Tempted to buy my mates house there now as prices will rocket as a rural commuter town.

If Boris’ real objectives are:

They aren’t. Johnson’s first, last, and middle objectives are

Boris

Given the massive opposition to the first step towards a decent link, it’s likely to be the general public that puts paid to that idea.

This is how I remember it. Then when it gets cancelled it’s all a load of “it’s not fair” wailing. 😆

Personally I’m quite glad as the proposed line would’ve destroyed a part of one of my rides. I can live without getting to London eight minutes quicker. I’d rather drive anyway rather than pay £££ to stand up in a claustrophobic tube

If you’d rather drive, then getting future increases in freight and passengers onto the rail network, and out of your way, is entirely in your interest.

That’s true 😊

Given the massive opposition to the first step towards a decent link, it’s likely to be the general public that puts paid to that idea.

The irony of this whole thing is that the leaders of the City regions and constituencies of the north were largely positive about HS2 and they’ve just had all their parts of the scheme scrapped or watered down and are now feeling justifiably betrayed. But the leg thats going ahead will be passing through areas that were universally hostile to it.

So they’ve managed to **** absolutely everybody off. Well… everyone who isn’t a shareholder in a construction firm. Quite an achievement.

Has anyone honestly heard anyone say anything positive about this weeks developments who isn’t Grant Shapps?

The whole project is now a total farce. Particularly to anyone who has the misfortune to have to use the antiquated and useless excuse for rail services in the north. I suspect its going to get more and more farcical as its ambitions are watered down yet further (does anyone really believe it’ll get past Birmingham?) and costs continue to escalate

I can live without getting to London eight minutes quicker.

How many times? That isn’t the main advantage of high speed rail. Why aren’t you listening?

That isn’t the main advantage of high speed rail. Why aren’t you listening?

Isn’t it? That’s what I was told/read/heard when it was first mooted.
Years ago.

Moving rapidly towards £100billion.

Cost of an aircraft carrier – £4 billion.

Isn’t it? That’s what I was told/read/heard when it was first mooted.
Years ago.

More of a bad sales pitch and lazy reporting than anything else. (Or at least that’s the argument)

High Speed Rail would add capacity onto new lines freeing up space on local lines. Basically lifting the ‘inter city’ traffic out of the existing network. They’d also be a bit quicker. No one seems to like it that much, so **** it, just keep building motorways.

Even if tbe extra capacity is true IT ONLY BENEFITS SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM

I don’t understand what hs2 was ever meant to achieve apart from increasing the London commuter belt. It is still going to the wrong London station. To be integrated transport it needs to go into st Pancras do it links with Eurostar. So far the only prior benefiting are the army of corporate consultants

It is still going to the wrong London station. To be integrated transport it needs to go into st Pancras do it links with Eurostar.

It would have been better but it really doesn’t matter that much. It’s one stop on 2 different tube lines. I can’t think of many people that couldn’t manage that. Most people aren’t carrying a mountain of luggage 99% of the time either so that argument isn’t going to hold economically.

The real opportunity missed is not linking in Heathrow, Birmingham, Manchester and East Midlands airports. Obviously you can get to most of Europe from Birmingham or Manchester but it’ll be a long time until you can catch a direct flight to, for example, Brazil.

Even if tbe extra capacity is true IT ONLY BENEFITS SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM

Spelling mistakes, no punctuation and some ALL CAPS, but still barely a sentence and no swearing.  3/10, you’re better than this.

Long day watching rugby?

That’s what I was told/read/heard when it was first mooted.

Perhaps only if you look at headlines?

Even if tbe extra capacity is true IT ONLY BENEFITS SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM

Yes, but a high speed network has to start somewhere doesn’t it? Seems like the biggest mistake the government made was not outlining the whole network up front.

It was a shit plan from the beginning.

Seems like the biggest mistake the government made was not outlining the whole network up front.

Unambitious plan, could have done much more to join transport infrastructure and to take freight off the roads.

Yes, but a high speed network has to start somewhere doesn’t it?

So start where you get most bang for your buck? One of the northern cities and make it the hub both east/ west and north /south

So start where you get most bang for your buck? One of the northern cities and make it the hub both east/ west and north /south

Doesn’t really matter where you start, it has to end up as a network before you can actually run any trains along it. There’s an argument to say that if it had started in Birmingham and built outwards to Manchester, Leeds and London simultaneously, it would all have been built, the problem is that the construction requires Hybrid Bills to go through Parliament (which take AGES, you can read a bit about the process here: https://www.hs2.org.uk/what-is-hs2/hs2-in-parliament/) and there’s also a limitation on the amount of skilled labour to run what would essentially be three massive construction projects at the same time.

Starting in Manchester or Leeds wouldn’t work because the whole point was to link up HS2 with Northern Powerhouse Rail and you need to know what HS2 is doing before you can integrate the NPR part of it. The Strategic Outline Case (SOC) for NPR was supposed to have been presented to Government last year but Gov asked for it to be delayed until after the IRP came out. The IRP has been delayed for over a year now which put the brakes on any further NPR work and now the whole SOC needs revising to cope with the realities of (the lack of) HS2.

It’s just spectacularly short-sighted from the Government – it’s supposed to be a transformational network for most of the UK with the possible options of later extension to Scotland, complete regeneration of the north (certainly the “lower half” of the north between the Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds/Sheffield and Hull corridor) and catering for the next 100 years of rail use but oh no, a few disjointed projects here and there, half of which were promised and then scrapped a few years ago by – umm, who was it now…? – oh yes, the Tories.

The other benefit would’ve been more goods going by rail freight and getting lorries off the motorways

Ah well

It’s just bleedin obvious that stand-alone NPR would have huge benefits irrespective of what happens with HS2. I don’t get why there are any dependencies other than figuring out where the Leeds and Manchester HS2 terminii would be.