Indeed it’s simple – until you get into the detail. That’a mindnumblingly conplex hence we will need a transitional period too.

Agree, but is the transitional period more important than the actual outcome after it – as both will need to be negotiated (at the same time).

I reckon both the detail AND the transitional period will be mindnumblingly complex

True – thats why we need to get on with it now to avoid….

THM, “hard brexshit” is the automatic outcome unless and until we manage to negotiate a new trade deal. Which given how long these things tend to take, and that this won’t even start in earnest until the leaving terms are settled (eg: rights for existing residents, divorce bill, Irish border situation, etc etc) may be a long time in the future.

…if not quite. Things will obviously not stop and some artificial date in the middle of negotiations.

By that time, the EU will probably be engrossed in finding an alternative currency solution anyway so the whole thing will be absurdly complex then!!

Bliar lived up to his name with his speech today. Not up to Trumpian standards but who could that?

And we are now in the process of determining what model we want

No, we are in the process of finding out what May wants and we will have to deal with.

On the contrary, she has been dealt a hand by the voters with the red lines clear – FoM and ECJ etc. so she has to play the hand that has been dealt. If she is a good bridge player she may pull of some finesses. We shall see…

You have to deal with what is in front of you, not what you wish is in front of you. The public focused on FoM and ECJ, they were at the heart of the debate. You can’t airbrush history.

she has been dealt a hand by the voters with the red lines clear – FoM and ECJ etc.

Don’t remember any of that on my ballot paper.

Did you not get the A3 version?

she has been dealt a hand by the voters with the red lines clear – FoM and ECJ

I can’t see it as clear, to be honest. I she’s using the vote as a mandate for what SHE wants, not trying to figure out what WE want.

Well that’s your opinion.

Don’t remember any of that on my ballot paper.

That’s the problem, the out tick box was like that dr who psychic paper thing that showed you what you wanted to see. 🙁

she’s using the vote as a mandate for what SHE wants, not trying to figure out what WE want.

+1 The Tories (and a few posters on here) must have **** themselves dry contemplating how they can shaft the rest of us under the excuse of Brexit.

Perhaps it’s unwise to assume others share your values?

I would imagine she is thinking how the **** do I sort this bllx out?

I don’t see as she’s made any effort to ask any of us sort of brexit we want though has she?

What are you expecting?

I would expect some sort of debate, perhaps in parliament, perhaps some sort of attempt to find a cross-party consensus. Instead what we have is “brexit means brexit” and red lines invented on the hoof to appease the frothing kippers in the tory party.

So let’s consider the evidence:

We have just had a national debate from which the factors that the winners focused on (immigration/FoM, ECJ/fake control, costs of membership) and didn’t focus on (benefits of UK membership, minimal cost, economics, workers rights, environment issues etc) became brutally clear.

Do you expect the issues that the winners focused on to be ignored?

We then had Parliamentary debates during which the two main parties demonstrated that they cannot achieve intra-party consensus let alone cross- party consensus (other than respect the outcome) and another party achieved consensus around not respecting the result. Some others simple made mischief

How do expect to achieve consensus from this? What would it look like and how would it be presented in negotiations?

The SC ruled that triggering A50 was irrevocable (although bizarrely this is now being challenged)

So which bit of Brexshit means Brexshit can we ignore? What do you know that the SC judges did not?

Back to the first para, which of May’s red lines have been made up rather than being at the core of the lengthy national debate?

FoM ?
Role of ECJ/control?
Which of these has been subsequently made up on the hoof ?

Sadly I agree with THM , immigration and taking back control were the reasons people voted leave .

I neither agree with the reasons nor give them with pleasure. They simply are what they are.

The “winners” quite clearly stated a whole lot of inconsistent nonsense. Like how no-one was talking about leaving the single market (Hannan for one). Of course there was no leaver manifesto so they could just make up any random crap with no risk of being held to account. But pretending that the leavers were all voting for <insert random policy choice> is just nonsense.

Whose pretending that?

We know what they were focused on…So did the Brexshiteers.

Shows how bad we were doesn’t it? We should be ashamed shouldn’t we?

How blair does not realise he is toxic and harms any cause he believes in is beyond me….he would do more good coming out as full on Brexit

Agree totally Junky. Funny thing is when I said that Molgrips decided it was a slur – that was the word he used. Molgrips I always post honestly, you may disagree with what Insa

People who disagree should indeed “rise up” and vote for a party with a manifesto pledge for the UK to rejoin the EU. That is assuming there will still be an EU to rejoin beyond 2020.

I can’t believe people here are still going over their interpretations of why the UK voted leave. All the signs where there for years before and simply ignored.

Jam – you said this:

Remainers must see how desperate their situation is when Tony Blair is the leading political figure champioing fheir cause

That looks like an attempt to make Leave look good simply by associating Remain with an unpopular figure. In other words, the kind of thing that tabloid newspapers do. A comment calculated to manipulate sentiment to flatter your own side.

Deplorable in my book. The merits or otherwise of Brexit can stand on their own, with out such underhanded games. In fact they MUST, otherwise all we have is a mud-slinging competition.

Back to the first para, which of May’s red lines have been made up rather than being at the core of the lengthy national debate?

Can you point to where Leave promised leaving the single market?

The vote leave website is still up. It says this:

“There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it.”

And this:

“We do not necessarily have to use Article 50 – we may agree with the EU another path that is in both our interests”

And this:

“The heart of what we all want is the continuation of tariff-free trade with minimal bureaucracy. “

And this – Lolz!

“Instead of sending £350 million per week to Brussels, we will spend it on our priorities like the NHS and education.”

The current plan represents a bit of a departure from that lot, don’t you think?

Sorry mol, is there any link between the bit you chose to quote and the rest, other than they are in the same post?

You also seem to struggling with the distinction between membership of and access to. It really isnt that hard.

In the meantime, does this ring any bells

“Instead we seek the greatest possible access to it through a new, comprehensive, bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement.”

For a woman who campaigned (quietly) against vote leave she hasn’t departed very far has she. Ok, she doesn’t lie about £350m and tbf even Farrage had a problem with that unlike the other Brexshiteers

Do you expect the issues that the winners focused on to be ignored?

NHS?
More immigration from non-EU counties?
Or are we just looking for the issues that May strongly supported before the referendum… (despite not being a “winner”)?
She was against ECJ and FoM, but wasn’t in favour of leaving the EU.
Very weird, but there you have it.
Now, her side lost, but she gets to be PM, and make the government red lines match her own. Handy.

If you say so, others will continue to differ.

Handy is a very odd adjective to use, indeed possible one of the most inappropriate you could chose. Awkward would be much better since the red lines she has adopted and the goal that she seeks are incompatible

Thanks goodness this is now a negotiation, eh?

So we’re leaving he EU (as people voted for) but have two extra red lines, from May, with no mandate, that prevents us getting even the kind of deal key Leave campaigners said we could get. May is limiting what we can achieve in the upcoming negotiations, in a way that people did not, have not, and would not vote for. And MPs have voted to allow her to carry on this path unchecked. Scared little people.

No mandate other than they were the key issues at the heart of what the leavers voted for. Odd that. But keep on making things up if it makes you feel better about it. (still valid despite the edits)

It won’t change the result

P.s. go and reread what the red lines do and do not prevent. Google is your friend again. Alternatively refer to my link about 20 pages ago

On Blair, he won 2 General Election so don’t underestimate him. With the current state of the Labour party anything is possible.

Blair won a very long time ago he is now is hugely unpopular figure, IMO hisnintervention is all aboit efo, he signed the Lisbon Treaty and approved the significant EU expansion and the Referendum with many Labour heartland voters have rejected those things. This hurts his enormous ego.

Worried your swindle is going to be discovered Jambalaya..

The point is not Blair, it’s what he said. Play the ball not the man.

He has nothing to loose and everything to gain.
None of the current party leaders have won an election, he has. A bit like Trump He is good at campaigning.

This is a bit scary don’t you think?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/17/brexit-vote-begins-to-bite-as-rising-food-and-fuel-bills-hit-retail-sales?

Don’t worry, the government/brexiters will already be coming up with reasons why it is happening (and none of them will be because of Brexit) to keep the ignorant happy in their leave vote.

Not sure why the Vauxhall workers of Ellsmere Port or Luton are worried about their jobs when those areas voted leave. They must have fully considered the impact of their leave vote and how that might impact on any change in GM’s business structure …. they have got back control after all.

It matters not that Blair has spat his dummy out or the fact that most of what he said was bleeding obvious, just like the vast majority of Brexit voters he/they have no political power or a way of gaining it.
This is the fundamental problem regardless of your political views we have an incumbent government that is likley to win the next GE. This government as Tony points out only has to pander to the rabid right. The implications for the rabid right of the Tory party of a hard brexit/WTO is not really significant *The Tories will look after Farmers by the way.
The further loss of manufacturing and increased automation will not lead to a rise in earnings, oddly the reduction in semi skilled labour from eastern Europe will drive some wages up and add inflationary costs. This misery for the working poor which will be significant leaves them with a UKIP protest vote and little else.

No amount of high level procrastination about post Brexit opportunities fixes the current political/economic problem of a one party state.

The biggest single mistake by the Brexit camp was peddling the myth that we actually have control of our economy – we don’t external forces have an over riding effect (exchange rates WTO vauxhall Global legislafion)

Biggest con ever pulled off…

This is the fundamental problem regardless of your political views we have an incumbent government that is likley to win the next GE. This government as Tony points out only has to pander to the rabid right.

I had been thinking exactly this way as well myself, but, recently, this morning to be precise, have been wondering about the (sizeable) portion of Tory leaning voters who vote Tory mostly for economic reasons. Now, they aren’t going to start voting for the current Labour Party… but wonder what may occur between now and next GE if our EU exit deal starts to look like a stinker… things move fast in politics right now. Blair is a spent force, and has no chance of making much difference himself, except for perhaps reminding people that pandering to the extremes of left and right are not the only ways to do politics win elections.

You also seem to struggling with the distinction between membership of and access to. It really isnt that hard.

Please, leave out the implied insults. I don’t want a row, just a nice discussion.

The point I am trying to make is that the leave campaign has statements promising tariff-free access to the single market. But now that May has decided FoM is a red line, she has prioritised that instead, which would make tariff-free access seem rather unlikely.

The deal we are getting is made up by May, and not the Leave campaign as they have all run away. And the promises and priorities of Leave are not necessarily being formed into policy.

Do you agree?