Isn’t everyone getting a bit excited about Brexit Party. UKIP won the 2014 Euros and then did nothing in 2 GEs. Brexit party is doing better in overall voter share but not surprising giving Brexit cluster ****.
The main parties are falling back for similar Brexit reasons. Lid Dems are doing well as clear ani Brexit party and are forgiven for coalition. Greens picking up disillusioned remainer lefties.
The real impact of the Brexit party surge will be the way it shapes the main parties and how they respond to retain their voter base.
The Brexit ref itself was a response by Tories to 2014 Euro result and internal strife over it – so I can’t see them going any other way than full Brexit with a new leader.
Labour will continue to try position themselves so they can blame Tories for Brexit shambles and then move on as quickly as possible to other things including green issues to win back voters
Lib-Dems will fall back as everyone realises they are basically a bit shite in a GE context other than for a protest vote
ChUk have demonstrated how little space there is for another centre party