JRM will be sitting in his stately pile counting the potential millions his Disaster Economics based investment company will be making…

His dad even wrote a book (or two) explaining how all this works.

How do you embed tweets in here?

Tory minister tells me if Brexiteers vote down Deal -he and others will openly campaign for a second referendum and to stay in EU.

— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) November 15, 2018

the Liberal wing of the tory party hoves into view to save the pm

Eastbourne Lib Dem @StephenLloydEBN tells BBC Sussex he’ll honour his #ge2017 pledge and vote FOR whatever Brexit deal is put before Parliament

— Ben Weisz (@BenRTWeisz) November 15, 2018

This is hysterical. Which of these political heavyweights would you want instead:
Odds on who is next leader of the Cons
Dominic Raab – 5/1
Sajid Javid – 11/2
Boris Johnson – 6/1
Michael Gove – 17/2
Jeremy Hunt – 17/2
Jacob Rees-Mogg – 17/2
David Davis – 17/2

So, I’m back from my ride. Has the Maybot resigned yet?

Why is a s second referendum too risky? Risky for whom?

Too risky for those who want to keep the status quo… Those who want to remain in the EU.

This needs to be taken right to the wire with a binary parliamentary vote on either ‘cliff edge suicide’ or remain.

It seems that’s May’s strategy. She’s planned for this not to get through parliament.

A second refurndum could easily go either way, and even if remain won, it would keep the wound open for decades of political and economic turmoil..

Brexit needs to be stopped on technical grounds, on the basis it’s not deliverable and it’s not in the best interest of the country. A second advisory refurndum would only frustrate and draw out the enevitable.

What we need is to improve education to the point where people can spot bullshit when they see it.

With hidsight, it probably wasnt best idea to have the remain campaign headed by two hugely rich, entitled, overpriviledged arseholes, who the entire nation absolutely despised, basically telling the thick proles that they knew what was best for them?

A second advisory refurndum would only frustrate and draw out the enevitable.

Almost agree with that.

Except…

would keep the wound open for decades of political and economic turmoil..

Applies just as much, if not more, to all options other than another referendum. The betrayal narrative of this being called off without the public getting another (direct) say in the matter would be hellishly strong. Pressing ahead even if the public is clearly turning against leaving would also look like politicans ignoring the public.

it probably wasnt best idea to have the remain campaign headed by two hugely rich, entitled, overpriviledged arseholes

well it worked out for the leave campaign.

another one falls on sword

My letter of resignation sent to PM @theresa_may stepping down as Vice Chairman @Conservatives & PM Trade Envoy to Pakistan. 1. Cannot support Draft EU Withdrawal Agreement. 2. Very disappointed by lack of leadership shown by UK Gov to do morally right thing in Asia Bibi Case. pic.twitter.com/hcaxba1hJr

— Rehman Chishti (@Rehman_Chishti) November 15, 2018

from the grauniads comments

Two years ago Britain walked out on a long marriage to the EU. The EU just didn’t understand Britain. Free at last Britain would hook up with younger fitter models around the world.

Yesterday Britain got shown into the new bedsit. On the bed was a box with lawyer’s bills, a maintenance agreement and an unfavourable custody arrangement.

raybanwomble

…It’s all very funny actually, the country has lost it’s collective marbles.

It’s as funny as being on a sinking ship that has been kept on a strong and stable course into a iceberg because we have taken back control.

The poshos are getting into their lifeboats, but there’s not enough for the rest of us, and some idiot is drilling holes in them.

Why is a s second referendum too risky? Risky for whom?

Depends how you ask the questions and the options you give. If you can split the “undecided” vote by offering a compromise then you potentially end up with a 3-way split, no clear majority for either side and we continue on ad-infinitum.

At the moment, the only realistic options to ask are:
push on with the Leave option, attempting to negotiate a deal and decide again in [x] time
call the whole thing off, retract article 50 and remain in the EU.

@ Dissonance

I think you might be a little out of tune on this statement

“Whilst she hasnt run away yet when you see all her comments it is aligning her view of brexit with the voters. Which, incidentally, then leaves her betraying democracy if she backs this one.”

Im sorry but i just don’t agree with that its pure conjecture

I think the original statement reflected trying to deliver on the democratic right of the electorate rather than the democratic powers of the elected

To do that you need to actually understand what the electorate want.

I think the vote was Leave/Remain rather than the 17 Million idiotic Brexits in peoples minds so would argue the government and by title the leader of that government May understood what the majority of the electorate wanted (regarding the Vote in question) and have tried to deliver it democratically.

I don’t agree with the outcome like you, however I think the original statement we are discussing is a true reflection of the circumstances

It’s all very funny actually, the country has lost it’s collective marbles.

It’s worst than that. Last night having listened to Tony Blair I found myself thinking he spoke a lot of sense and wasn’t that bad after all.

A second refurndum could easily go either way

Not if there are three options on the ballot.

May understood what the majority of the electorate wanted

So why is everyone so unhappy?

Old dears in the green grocers just now having a rant. They were moaning about the deal saying it’s worse than what we’ve got.

Then they started talking about how much fun the march was.

The UKIP green grocer had to smile and nod.

Tide is turning.

Gove still hedging his bets

EXCLUSIVE:

Michael Gove will ONLY become Theresa May's Brexit Secretary if he can renegotiate her deal and the November 25 EU summit is scrapped.

And he is STILL weighing up whether to quit Cabinet…https://t.co/2ccBDfR22D

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 15, 2018

Pressing ahead even if the public is clearly turning against leaving would also look like politicans ignoring the public.

I see where you’re coming from, but it’s a politicians job to act for the good of the country, not to blindly follow the results of advisory referendums.

And the polling on a second refurndum is still too close for it to a sensible idea IMO.

A second ref could still conceivably result in leave, and that would mean a defecto hard brexit. No one wants that apart from Jacob rich snob and people who sell tat on market stalls in Doncaster aparrently.

May may have actually played a blinder here if she an survive a no confidence vote..

Pestons calling it

For what it's worth, I can't find a Tory MP who thinks the 48 no-confidence letters aren't already with the 1922's Brady. And surprising people are telling me they will vote against her, if (when?) it comes to it

— Robert Peston (@Peston) November 15, 2018

Yes, we’ve been over this a lot, the vote was leave/remain, but the things that motivated that vote were nuanced. It’s incredibly dishonest to claim that it was a vote for any brexit that can be put on the table, even when it totally contradicts what was promised or even what other brexiteers wanted. There’s a reason all of the promised brexits were made up bullshit, the brexiteers knew that they couldn’t sell any real brexit.

There was a very slender majority for some sort of brexit; nobody has ever voted for exactly this brexit, and we can be confident that the referendum was not in fact a majority for any specific brexit. Nothing illustrates this better than the squabbles ongoing in the brexit camp over what sort of brexit they want.

We’re now in a weird place where brexiteers are opposing this “deal” because it’s not brexitty enough and that’s fine, but remainers are told off for opposing it because brexit is the will of the people.

If you had a vote for cake or no cake, and the cakes on offer were carrot cake and chocolate cake, well, you could be pretty confident that the cake voters would be happy. But this was more like a vote for chocolate cake and cattle cake, and while some people would be happy to eat either a lot will prefer not to.

As it turns out, nobody’s getting the cake they asked for, but everyone’s being told they have to eat the jobby cake because they voted for chocolate cake or carrot cake. And they’d damn well better enjoy it.

lol at Northy!

<div class=”TweetAuthor js-inViewportScribingTarget” data-scribe=”component:author”>
<div class=”TweetAuthor-nameScreenNameContainer”><span class=”TweetAuthor-decoratedName”><span class=”TweetAuthor-name Identity-name customisable-highlight” title=”Rehman Chishti” data-scribe=”element:name”>Rehman Chishti seems to have the cheap stationary.</span></span><b class=”u-hiddenVisually”></b></div>
</div>

It’s probably been recycled by now

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1063091529194049536?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1063091529194049536&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46200010

are they are getting brave now ? is chief whip losing control ?

Westminster rumour: Chris Grayling and Penny Mordaunt tipped to resign by the end of the day #BrexitChaos

— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) November 15, 2018

Utterly agree with Northwinds analysis and excellent phrasing 🙂

Who do we want to replace May?

David Lammy has risen to the top of my list over the last two years.

A second ref could still conceivably result in leave, and that would mean a defecto hard brexit.

The campaigning would be different though.  We’d know what would happen.  Almost all the leavers I spoke to/read about were saying about all the great deals we’d get and how we’d have our cake and eat it, and that’s now categorically shown to be false.  Before it was all hypothetical, now it’s real.

somethings afoot

PM to give press conference at 1700.

— Tom Harwood (@tomhfh) November 15, 2018

I called it first!

Buh bye May, don’t let the door smack you on the way out.

We are now a knats chuff away from no deal and Corbyn as PM.

faaaaaaaaaarkkkkkkkkk

Corbyn as PM

Let’s be honest, the only way this is going to end is with Laura Kuennsberg sticking an ice axe through May’s brain while screaming YOU TOLD ME YOU WERE IN THE CENTRE GROUND! YOU PROMIIIIIIISED

A second referendum could easily go either way, and even if remain won, it would keep the wound open for decades of political and economic turmoil..

This really highlights the problem of the original question. There’s more than two ways.

Now the electorate knows there’s no £350m a week for the NHS, It won’t be easy, it won’t be a all win, no lose thing many will want to stay, or… will accept leaving if it’s something close the ‘Chequers’ or ideally within the Single Market, a lot of people wanted that, financially remain the same, but “take control” of the boarders.

For JRM who’s in it for a Quid, and for different reasons the “HARD BREXIT NOW” thickos whatever deal is struck with the EU won’t be good enough, you can see it from the pre-vote rhetoric, they were happy to leave on pretty good terms with the EU, as long as we left, not now though. Nope, they won’t be happy until there’s a statue of Winston Churchill astride Britainia’s Lion flicking a ‘double bird’ in Dover flicking a ‘Double Bird’ at Calais.

Equally, lots of Remainers were gutted at the result, but accepted it, at least in the early days when the talk was of striking a deal that most people in the UK could live with, not just Leavers, but the last 2 years has been so polarising that they will now only vote for remaining exactly as we were, and perhaps, joining the Euro, just to watch Farage turn purple and explode for a laugh.

So, really the vote should be:

1) Remain.

2) Leave under the deal agreed with the EU currently.

3) Walk from the EU, tell them to whistle for their divorce payment and go it alone (it’ll be like The Walking Dead, only with more realistic Zombies).

I’d dare any Leaver to say they’d take that, because the only way that Leave won, is because they were able to offer anything and everything to everyone. Blue Passports, £350m for the NHS, etc etc etc.

We are now a knats chuff away from no deal and Corbyn as PM.

faaaaaaaaaarkkkkkkkkk

I dunno actually, if she played an absolute blinder and just said “that’s it, Article 50 is withdrawn, we’re staying” she’d probably get a huge amount of public support which would make it difficult ousting her. The country would remain completely divided, there’d be a few very upset Hard Brexit tory MPs but it would take the wind out of everyone’s sails including Corbyn. Then it’d jusyt be the next 10 years of repairing all the massive damage caused to society, the economy and to our global relationships.

It’s about the only option she has if she wants to stay in power. Own up to it. Lay the blame squarely on Cameron< JRM and BoJo and blow any hopes they have of ever getting into power. Explain that there is no Brexit that can reasonably be delivered and we’ll go back to the drawing board.

Romanian head waiter in my buildings bar is having flashbacks of Ceausesku after I told him Corbyn might get in now. I think he might need an ADR to revive him, he’s gone totally catatonic.

at this point, given the option, i’d vote for the euro and schengen just to see Farage spontaneously combust.

 The country would remain completely divided,

I dunno, Polls  suggest most people wish we’d never started down this road, UKIP imploded long ago, and for all their blustering the HC Leavers within the Tories is still a small minority.

If I was May “It seems clear to me that we cannot break this stalemate either within my party, the Government or indeed the country as a whole. I will withdraw A50 with immediate effect before starting a long term consultation”. give no time-scales, introduce some strict rules to government media lies and let things cool down over the next 5 years or so.

It’s about the only option she has if she wants to stay in power. Own up to it. Lay the blame squarely on Cameron< JRM and BoJo and blow any hopes they have of ever getting into power. Explain that there is no Brexit that can reasonably be delivered and we’ll go back to the drawing board.

Ballsy, I like it. It’ll never happen mind you, but I like it.

Whilst i wish May will just say it isn’t possible and at the same time arrange for Gove, Johnson et al to be arrested. She is up to her neck in this. Bradshaw? asked if she blocked an investigation into banks, she refused to answer.

And her history at the HO speaks for itself.

This is brilliant, I’m getting a few rounds of beers in and watching it the bar downstairs.