Donald! Trump!

This is the map based on the Fivethiryeight model. Trump has to win every single toss-up state (bronze), both of Arizona and Florida, which Biden has modest leads in, plus at least one state where Biden has a solid lead (Pennsylvania, Wisconson, etc). That is a daunting task given that every thing he does seems designed to alienate the moderate voters he needs to convince.

It's not outside the realm of possibility that Texas could become a swing state is it? I'm thinking of the very liberal Austin growing in influence and the latino and massive urban population. Plus if Beto o Rourke goes on to do anything

If it fell under democrat rule then the GOP are completely frozen out ......which is nice

And to think that people used to wonder why on earth we didn't move to the US when we got married...

Latinx voters are traditionally very conservative.

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Texas could become a swing state is it? I’m thinking of the very liberal Austin growing in influence and the latino and massive urban population.

Plus Trump is toxic to educated women. His BLM response that white suburban women will be overrun by scary black men scaremongering did not convince white women that he has any solution to race and law and order issues.

Latinx voters are traditionally very conservative.

Problem is that Latinx voters are actually very diverse. In Florida, their vote is heavily influenced by policy towards Cuba. In Texas, they are probably more socially and religiously conservative. In California, different again.

Are we not focusing on Texas Latino/a though?

It’s not outside the realm of possibility that Texas could become a swing state is it? I’m thinking of the very liberal Austin growing in influence and the latino and massive urban population. Plus if Beto o Rourke goes on to do anything

Well, the Texas governor seems to be trying his hardest to avoid this by banning more than one ballot drop-off location per county in Tx. OK'd by the federal appeal court (I assume full of Trump-appointed judges.)

And meanwhile in California Republicans are putting out '50 deceptively labeled “official” drop boxes for mail-in ballots in Los Angeles, Fresno and Orange Counties' to 'help people get their ballots in'. These have been declared illegal.

Won’t dancing to YMCA alienate some of his core voters?

What, cowboys? Naval officers? Construction workers? Leather joy-boys? That's his base demographic right there.

Not sure that he's that interested in native Americans, though.

Won’t dancing to YMCA alienate some of his core voters?

Well he's got a pretty solid backing from the police unions if not the actual law enforcement agencies themselves. And he's presumably been keeping construction workers happy at least with the promise of a wall and (unbelievable but true) getting quotes to add a gator-filled moat to go in front of itl. Biker gangs and unionised cops are  the same thing so all pretty much part of the core support. Cowboys.. well 'nuff said really

However his bridges with Red Indians were pretty much burnt with the Keystone Pipeline. And pissing in the soldiers' chips was probably a mistake.

Leathermen are on the fence and sailors are floating voters too.

OK folks- hands up anyone who thinks trump will ever come off the drugs?

I mean, why would he? He's spent the last 5 years looking exhausted, not being able to walk down ramps and being humiliated for having to get golf cart rides behind all the other, walking, world leaders... Usually he needs the big crowds or a fight or a bit of sexual assault to get any sort of energy, now he's high as balls and feels 20 years younger, all the time. And he's not the sort of person to take "but it'll do you damage" seriously- "but I feel great, how can it be harmful?" "I know more about being full of drugs than you do, because I'm full of drugs". "I got tiger blood, dying is for fools" And his doctors do what he pays them to do.

One scottish pound here says he's still on the dexa or something very similar, and will be till after the election. People think he doesn't look like a man who's had covid, but he definitely doesn't look like a man who's had covid and then had to come down off the drugs.

20p says he never stops, unless forced.

Leathermen are on the fence and sailors are floating voters too.

The icing on the cake of a frankly superb bit of analysis. Chapeau!

OK’d by the federal appeal court (I assume full of Trump-appointed judges.)

I thought the court had struck down Abbott's decision.

hands up anyone who thinks trump will ever come off the drugs?

Hopefully once he is locked up or, second best, goes completely bankrupt he wont get given them.
Otherwise not a chance.

FFS, I thought the headlines were mocking his desperation, but they're actually quoting him verbatim.

“So can I ask you to do me a favor? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighborhood, OK?”

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1316187489359613952

Holy Christ, Texas is going to be interesting.

https://twitter.com/statesman/status/1316059298087264259

Really interesting stuff. High participation is bad news for Republicans, hence why they spend so much time and money trying to suppress the vote. Texas is definitely in play, has been polling as a swing state (no candidate ahead by more than 5 points) for ages.

Latest map based on polls averages per state shows that Biden wins with states that are either safe, likely or leaning Democrat. He's also ahead by 3-4% in Florida, Arizona and North Carolina (where the gap seems to he widening).

Trump still needs to win every toss up state and at least one that is leaning towards Biden. A big ask.

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I think this is the map that funkrodent tried to link to, just keeps looking worse and worse for Trump day by day.

This map is based on the fivethirtyeight forecast, looks even worse for Trump.

Leathermen are on the fence

I thought they were the Proud Boys? Their support seems pretty secure.

and sailors are floating voters too.

Very nice.

That hols2 photo shows him to be of truly fictitious proportions. How does he do all that whizz without chewing through his orange cheeks, getting a shrivelled acorn and popping an eyeball at you?

Bill - i suspect steroids not whizz. Takes longer for the eyeball popping and psychosis to appear 🙂

I thought the court had struck down Abbott’s decision.

I think a lower, district judge blocked Abbott's plan, then this was overruled by a federal appeals court.

'Because of the ruling, Harris County — one of the largest in the country, covering more than 1,700 square miles and containing 4.7 million people — will see its drop-off locations reduced from 12 spots to one. Other large counties face reductions and disruptions to their plans.'

Will be spending time later catching up on the multiple US polls but even those like Rasmussen which, because of their sampling technique, have always shown trump clearly ahead ahead are now showing a small lead but within the margin of error.
Here's a recent WashPo article analysing polling and trends by demographic...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/09/why-trump-is-losing/

trump's time is over; his future and that of his family - other than melania - is looking bleak.
He fears defeat more than anything else; when it happens we'll see his very public implosion, humiliation in multiple legal suits, financial fraud exposed.
Will Putin make public his hold over trump?
How much damage has he inflicted on the GOP?
As for governors in Florida and Texas, they've both been very quiet of late; trump needs them out on the stump strongly supporting him - it's not happening.
If/when Biden wins he will have a huge job on his hands to repair the damage done by trump and his enablers; am very interested in how he will attempt to deal with white supremacists and police brutality.
He will also have to manage the noisy progressives in his own party.
Interesting that, in recent comments, he's indicated that the Dems will not pack the Supreme Court; in view of the GOP trying to force through Barrett's appointment it must have been tempting.

And in other news -

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-supreme-court-tax-returns-investigation-b1017550.html

It fascinating and terrifying watching this play out.

One scottish pound here says he’s still on the dexa or something very similar, and will be till after the election. People think he doesn’t look like a man who’s had covid, but he definitely doesn’t look like a man who’s had covid and then had to come down off the drugs.

This is true... Give steroids (glucocorticoids, not anabolic..) to anyone, and it peps them up.. Often patients who are frail, elderly, and achey, have a short course and it fixes everything!

I raise your scottish pound, and agree...I think he'll stay on a low dose of potent steroid lifelong now...
He'll try selling it as some wonder drug that's new and recently been discovered by the Trump admin, and the cost will shoot up!!!

DrP

I think he’ll stay on a low dose of potent steroid lifelong now…

Presumably there is a significant downside to this, or everyone would be doing it...

I suppose 'lifelong' is a moveable target.

Presumably there is a significant downside to this, or everyone would be doing it…

Presumably there is a significant downside to this, or everyone would be doing it…

Yeah, there's a number of downsides. I posted about it on page 466 (singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/donald-trump/page/466/#post-11419573)

I personally doubt he'd stay on them for longer than a month or so, without a solid clinical indication. But I don't really know whether he has one of those...

Many are. TRT. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t on TRT anyway.

Although testosterone and glucocorticoids are both 'steroids' it's best to think of them as completely separate things. Testosterone is almost completely different to the Covid-treating, psychosis-inducing glucocorticoids.

Presumably there is a significant downside to this

@hols2 LOL

Although testosterone and glucocorticoids are both ‘steroids’ it’s best to think of them as completely separate things. Testosterone is almost completely different to the Covid-treating, psychosis-inducing glucocorticoids.

Presumably there is a significant downside to this, or everyone would be doing it…

Yeah... bone thinning..endocrine imbalance..dangers if you come off them too quickly..weight gain..water retention.. vision issues..diabetes... to name a few.

Of course, if their use is clinically indicated (asthma/rheumatoid arthritis/colitis etc.) then teh risk is worth the benefit.
For a fat old tango man to feel better...less so...

DrP

hols2 - on your maps, what does the stripiness of Nebraska indicate?

what does the stripiness of Nebraska indicate?

Most states award all electoral college voters to the candidate who wins the statewide vote. Nebraska and Maine split them. All states get two EC votes to represent the two senators that each state has, plus one vote for each congressional seat (which varies according to population). Nebraska and Maine award the two senatorial votes to the statewide winner and the congressional votes according to the vote in the congressional districts. This means that the votes are often divided between the two parties because Republicans generally do well in rural areas and Democrats in urban areas.

Thanks

So, if the steroids can induce psychosis (roid rage?) then how long before he goes completely nuts*, possibly when goaded on live TV?

* yeah, I know..

how long before he goes completely nuts

I'm expecting that a transcript of the Oval Office on November 4th will work perfectly as subtitles for the Hitler ranting in his bunker video.

OMG. Please make that gif. Complete with a wobbly orange head crudely pasted over Hitler's.

Excuse the TikTok but it nicely summarises some of the craziness going on with voting in the US:

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZS9Kopdt/

- Waiting 11 hours to cast an early vote.
- One drop box for a population of 4.6 million
- Republican Party placing illegal unofficial ballot boxes.

😳

– Republican Party placing illegal unofficial ballot boxes.

I can't believe that this at least hasn't been robustly, legally challenged.

Is there not a case for UN observers?

Trump would LOVE for the UN to step in and be painted as interfering.

– Republican Party placing illegal unofficial ballot boxes.

I can’t believe that this at least hasn’t been robustly, legally challenged.

It has. Successfully. They have to remove them. The mahoosive queues to vote and the frankly ridiculous policy of one drop off for 4m+ people haven't though. Notice how many of the people in those videos are black? USA has a very corrupt methodology, massively open to abuse.

However. Whilst Trump seems to be a danger to democracy (along with his enabling GOP friends), in classic case of the law of unintended consequences, it's looking like his sh1tsh0w is driving participation to almost unprecedented levels, which will benefit the Democrats.

Looking at the polling numbers, not only does Biden seem likely to win convincingly, but it is looking like they'll flip the Senate and strengthen their hold on the house. Which means Biden will be able to legislate without getting blocked by the Senate a la Obama.

Could be that GOP won the battle with Trump in 16 but are facing a pyrrhic victory and risk losing the war..

IIRC, some kind of impartial observers, (can't remember which organisation it was exactly) were suggested a couple of months ago. Orange Man Child wasn't exactly welcoming of the suggestion, I think that's when he suggested local militias should step up and provide that oversight.

It has. Successfully. They have to remove them.

Oh good!

Oh dear. Biden's junkie son's laptop is in the hands of the New York Post. The next few weeks exposing the Biden family corruption is going to be quite something.

https://nypost.com/

it's a transparently bogus news story published by a Trump loving outlet. Twitter have banned linking to it because it's bogus.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1316452083583811584

So, as I understand it, an unknown person dropped off a laptop to a legally blind repairman who cannot identify the person. The laptop had a Biden sticker on it so the repairman thinks it was Hunter Biden. The laptop was never collected so the repairman copied the hard disk and says it has Hunter Biden's emails. He then gave them to Rudy Giuliani, who gave them to the NY Post.

Does any part of that story sound fishy to you?

Good job Trump's own family are such clean business players.

it’s a transparently bogus news story published by a Trump loving outlet. Twitter have banned linking to it because it’s bogus.

Give it a few days for the Streisand effect to kick in and you'll be knee deep in the stories.

The New York Post is running with it, it’s not some internet horseshit.

The New York Post is not the New York Times. Nor is it the Washington Post.

From the Washington Post

What does the Biden campaign say?
Andrew Bates, a campaign spokesman for Joe Biden, said a review of Biden’s schedules from 2015 finds no record of any such meeting. Officials who worked for Biden at the time told The Fact Checker that no such meeting took place.

“I was with the vice president in all of his meetings on Ukraine,” said Michael Carpenter, Biden’s foreign policy adviser in 2015. “He never met with this guy. In fact, I had never heard of this guy until the New York Post story broke.”

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The New York Post article also cites an email from Pozharskyi to Hunter Biden saying he was “going to share this information with the US embassy here in Kyiv, as well as the office of Mr Amos Hochstein in the States.”

“I know for a fact he never contacted me or my office,” said Hochstein, who at the time worked closely with Biden as special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs. “I provided every record to the Senate investigation, and no mention of this guy was ever made, no emails, no correspondence. I know almost every player in the energy sector in Ukraine. I never met this guy.”

Carpenter said that the vice president wouldn’t have had a meeting with a company executive. “He was the vice president of the United States,” he said. “He met with prime ministers.”

This does not exclude the possibility that Biden briefly shook hands and chatted with Pozharskyi during a public event. Hunter Biden, for instance, helped arrange for a potential business partner, Jonathan Li, to shake hands with his father in the lobby of a Beijing hotel when the vice president made an official trip to China.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/14/hunter-bidens-alleged-laptop-an-explainer/

It's almost like a president willing to break laws and lie constantly might just fake a laptop to discredit his rival. Surely not. Fake news. Karma