Trump cuts through the BS

Thats an novel way of putting it. Considering the amount of BS he produces and his relaxed approach to the truth.

Brexit and Trump weren’t accidents…there is discontent among the wider public…politicians ignore it at their peril.

Sadly though the elites who are taking advantage of this are, as Poopscoop mentions, stacking up even more trouble long term.

Trump has the lowest approval rating of any US president at this stage in his presidency. Mid terms look like a democrat win and a big win. He is mired in serious criminal investigations that are unprecedented – far bigger than Nixon. I don’t think he will make a whole term let alone re election

Futon….would that be the same polls that had Hillary winning at a canter?…. After the events of 2016 I really wouldn’t put much faith in polls…they tend to answered by the eager to speak and the politically active, what matters are the silent majority who turn out on election day.

People are looking at Trump’s presidency through UK/european eyes…there is also STILL an arrogance about his detractors.

You’d think after he won last time people would take him seriously….to underestimate him risks seeing him get a second term.
He received less votes than his opponent. I seem to recall it was about 300,000 that swayed it in the electoral college. A huge anti trump sentiment will lead to people voting against him rather than for his opponent.

.the UK has moved towards identity politics, political correctness and seems preoccupied with gender, race, religion etc… this is all very nice as peripheral issues but the primary role of a leader is to make sure citizens feel safe and the country prospers.

Yes all the country not just the white men. The US has shown that people of colour, minorities and women don’t feel safe in the US – so Trump has failed?
The EU manages to deliver a safer, more welcoming society with better services and provisions for all – that is a big win and a big fail for the US.

Trump cuts through the BS and a large number of voters like that..

The number has dropped dramatically since his election though, his averaged approvals are sneaking up to 40%, it’s not been above 40 since May.

People will judge him on what he delivers, so far it’s a hole in the budget and a gamble that cutting taxes for the rich will make everything better.

But uncle Jezza… according to those same pollsters, he never stood a chance of making it to the White House in the first place.

And we’d never be daft enough to vote for Brexit.

So much for polls, eh?

Take him seriously as President? He can barely function as a believable human being, his hateful, racist, egotistical, inane, idiotic, sexist, nonsensical, smug, self serving, lying actions should be seen by any right minded person for what they are.

Futon….would that be the same polls that had Hillary winning at a canter?…. After the events of 2016 I really wouldn’t put much faith in polls…they tend to answered by the eager to speak and the politically active, what matters are the silent majority who turn out on election day.

You don’t understand polling then.

There was a really good podcast by 538 going back over the election and the polling data they were seeing and what was going on, on the eve of an election their forecast was 75% Chance of Clinton, 25% Chance of Trump, he was the long shot but those odds are decent, when you look at the margins involved and the timing of the events in the lead up the polling does actually make sense. Move the election date or some of the leaks around a few days and he would be back hosting the apprentice complaining about somebody else. He is part of a generation of opposition, he can condemn anything, he can complain about anything, he will blame anyone but himself. What he has failed to do is fix anything.

Texas sharpshooter syndrome

Retrospectively select one poll out of the hundreds that were done, pick the one most generous to your cause, ignore th3 commonality of regression to the mean by pollsters in the final days of polling (hedging their bets) and then claim that “the polling was accurate”

Bollox

Fivethirtyeight’s own pollster was at one point calling a minus ten percent chance of Trump winning 🙂

Fivethirtyeight’s own pollster was at one point calling a minus ten percent chance of Trump winning

The polling is based on it the vote were today, so of course during times such as confessions of sexual assault or attacking veterans parents his chances were so low the republicans were actively trying to get rid of him.
At one point Doug Jones had no chance of winning in Alabama but then his opponent turned out to be even worse than most far right republican bigots.

(hedging their bets) and then claim that “the polling was accurate”

Or the data they received changed, 538 were very clear to point out that they produced their algorithm for compiling their output at the start and locked it in – changing it to suit the days/weeks data would be misrepresentative and not allow you to compare what was going on.

October 7
Tapes are leaked out from Access Hollywood showing Donald Trump and Billy Bush bragging about sexual exploits in 2005.[166][167]
WikiLeaks begins publishing thousands of emails from the personal Gmail account of Clinton campaign manager John Podesta, revealing excerpts from Clinton’s paid speeches to Wall Street.[168]
October 9 – Second presidential general election debate was held at Washington University in St. Louis in St. Louis, Missouri.[163] Hillary Clinton ends up narrowly winning over Donald Trump.[169]
October 19 – The third and final presidential debate between the two major candidates was held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas in Paradise, Nevada[163] Hillary Clinton ends up winning with a very close margin over Donald Trump.[170]
October 25 – The Free & Equal Election Foundation debate was held at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado, allowing all candidates with major ballot access to participate.[171] Gary Johnson publicly declined the offer.[172]
October 28 – James Comey announces that the FBI will be investigating newly discovered emails pertinent to its previous investigation of Hillary Clinton’s private server. Hillary’s lead in the polls drops heavily within days.[173]
October 31 – PBS airs the first part of a presidential forum with major third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, moderated by Tavis Smiley.[174]
November 2016[edit]
November 6 – James Comey tells Congress there is no evidence in the recently discovered emails that Clinton should face charges over handling of classified information[175]
November 8 – US Election Day.[176]

If you swapped the events it may have been different
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Look at the slide that started on Oct 7th when the access Holywood tapes were released.
The Clinton Dip corresponds with the Comey intervention and statements.

That aint cherry picking.

I think deviant has a point (not something I say often!)

In my experience many Americans seem obsessed with the economy and would happily chew off their own foot if it helped.

Witness the disdain for any social care and employment rights, or the belief that people taking holidays are slackers.

So something as simple as turning their backs on proud founding principles of their country matters little if the economy does well. Which it probably will under Trump. He inherited a strong upward recovery from Obama and throwing out environmental protections and other pesky “inconveniences” to business will likely boost it further. As will cutting aid payments, cutting support for national and international organisations and turfing out refugees.

Killing all the poor would also probably help, but I assume he is saving the gas chambers for his second term 😉

But also see the backlash when people realised killing off Obamacare got rid of the affordable care act they were depending on, or when it was the free meals for veterans etc. The grand cuts start to hurt, not so much the republican elite but those in the rust belt or the middle struggling for jobs and income. He needs to actually make their lives better.

when people realised killing off Obamacare got rid of the affordable care act they were depending on,

That’s definitely an ‘if’ as opposed to ‘when’. The Facebook comments of people saying how obamacare is the scourge of the earth, yet the ACA is the reason they are alive, and they’ll defend it to their death…

It started and it was quite unpopular hence why they really struggled to pass the bill and any hint of Calling it Trumpcare was suppressed hard. BEst bit of politicing on that was to make sure every time somebody spoke against the bill they were saying ACA.

Anyway it does seem like Muller is just ticking along doing his job. That may be the quick way out of all of this.
In the middle of this (and a barometer of how the President is governing)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-2018-midterms-are-looking-blue_us_598adb63e4b030f0e267c89f
http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018-midterms-forecast/

As much as people keep saying he is popular he speaks to (some of) the people, he is delivering what people want every single indicator pushes it the other way.

Factor in he could attract a very concentrated protest vote against him the best way to control and castrate a president it to remove his majorities in government.

But anyway on with the fun facts

Fun Stats

Days Trump has spent at Mar a Lago:

50

Cost of flights to Mar a Lago (11 so far):*

~$22,873,000

Days Trump has spent at Bedminster:

33

Cost of flights to Bedminster (11 so far):*

~$8,481,000

Trump has visited his clubs once every this many days since his inauguration:

4.1

Projected visits to golf clubs in four years:

359

Projected visits in eight years:

718

Total times Obama played golf during his eight year Presidency:

306
http://trumpgolfcount.com/

It will be interesting if the Republicans do really badly in the mid-terms, the GOP will then have to decide whether to keep supporting Trump (as they have kind of been forced to up until now) or they could start to turn on him in order to properly position a successor (as Trump doesn’t automatically get the GOP nomination).

Conversely if Trump does really well at the mid-terms then perhaps the Democrats will wake up and realise they need a decent candidate to counter him.

Well, the presidential health check has been released…

He’s in perfect health!

Though, a smidge overweight at 239lbs (he’s 6’3”).
Doc reckons that if donny had had a healthier diet for the last few years he could have lived to 200 (I wish I was joking…)

The 7 strangest things about Donald Trump’s medical ‘check-up’

On the plus side, it does mean he’s fit enough to stand trial, for anything that might come up…

Conversely if Trump does really well at the mid-terms

Or even passably well.

The account of how the Immigration reform talks failed was a classic example of Trump’s management style – ie he loves nothing better than lulling his staff into a false sense of security by making encouraging noises, then pulls the rug to get them fighting like rats in a sack.

Looks like this may backfire as the group which came up with the bipartisan proposals is trying to get them voted through despite the Trump ambush. Durkin thinks there may be the Republican support to do it.

Then they’ll present him with a Bill to sign and see if he does as promised.

So there are increasing signs that GOP members are prepared to bypass the Oval Office and work with the Democrats. The more often that happens, the less likely it is that Trump will get any more of his legendary ‘wins’.

tomhoward – Member
Well, the presidential health check has been released…

He’s in perfect health!

Surely the bone spurs must cause him serious disability?

Trump’s ‘cognitive ability’ normal, he’s just a prick, says White House doctor

NHS Choice says
BMI 29. Overweight.
Your BMI is above the ideal range and indicates you are overweight. This means you are heavier than is healthy for someone of your height. Excess weight can put you at increased risk of heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes. It’s time to take action.

Sad.

Simpsons predicted the future again

This is hilarious….just enjoy the Trump presidency, we’ll probably never get another like it…it’ll be back to bland PR career politicians soon enough.

Regarding the health issue…i seem to recall speculation about Hillary’s health was demonised for being irresponsible, unfair, amateurish etc.. love the double standards now Trump is President.

deviant – Member
This is hilarious….just enjoy the Trump presidency, we’ll probably never get another like it…it’ll be back to bland PR career politicians soon enough.

I’m sure the people who have lost their lives in being run over by white supremacists, are laughing, those who are out of a job or being monitored in case they have a view that doesn’t agree with the pseudo science, those who will no longer have health care and the soldiers desperately trying to point out how invading NK will end very badly. It’s nothing to laugh about really this is impacting not just people in America but those in Mexico, Korea, instability impacts Australia as we are in the Pacific. It’s holding the US back and letting Russia build up steam and help it’s aim to fracture it’s competitors.

I see you didn’t bother to reply to the polling challenges.

I made my opinions on the polls perfectly clear…i wouldn’t read too much into them…they got it spectacularly wrong with Brexit, Trump and latterly they had May winning a landslide in the snap election…only for Corbyn to nearly take it instead.

If you’re going to set your stall out by what the polls are telling you then you’re going to be very confused by upcoming events in the next few years.

latterly they had May winning a landslide in the snap election…only for Corbyn to nearly take it instead.

Yes, I can see you don’t pay much attention.

I agree there has been a change in global politics, but I also think some of the “polls were wrong” sentiment is misplaced.

The chance of throwing a double six on two fair dice is 1/36.

If someone throws a double six that doesn’t mean that the prediction was “spectacularly wrong”.

Brexit and Trump weren’t accidents…there is discontent among the wider public…politicians ignore it at their peril.

For the first time ever, I agree with Deviant on something.

There is indeed discontent, politicians have taken their eye off the ball for too long but I don’t understand how Brexit and Trump will address the problems of stagnant wage growth, erosion of job security and income inequality and house price inflation.

Rhetoric about Mexicans (and immigrants in general), Muslims and the colour of passports don’t address the fundamental problems of an economy that’s run out of steam having been on borrowed time since the banking crisis. Too much money has been prized out of the pockets of people and sucked upward (and inevitably to overseas tax havens), however it would seem that both Trumpism and the policies we’re seeing as a result of Brexit merely apply a sticking plaster to an ailing economy whilst making those at the very top even richer still. For America at least, the price for this is a regressive tax system, severely curtailed environmental protection (witness how NASA has been heavily censored by the US government). I don’t understand how such policies as pursued by the Trump government are defensible in any rational sense.

If you’re going to set your stall out by what the polls are telling you then you’re going to be very confused by upcoming events in the next few years.

Only if you read the headlines.
Your quoting snapshots in a moving process, people change their opinions over time, it’s like asking you what you want to eat in the evening then serving it to you for breakfast on Sunday.
On Brexit it was always going to be close, a close vote encourages the losing side to get out in greater numbers and adds complacency among the leading side. The Brexit vote also included a significant protest vote which is hard to measure.
Trump as said, was a 25% chance of winning on election night, lost the popular vote and made it in by about 300k votes – about spot on
May was in a very strong position until she called the election and then screwed up her campaign, the polls moved all the way through the campaign. The amount of undecided swayed that in many areas.

That was all in the poll data and analysis, just not if you read the first number.

they got it spectacularly wrong with Brexit,

really? I thought it was to be a narrow victory for remain, rather than a narrow victory for leave

as with trump, polls narrowed considerable toward the end, though less so with the last election.

Its obvious that discontent and reversing of opportunities is unsettling many western countries.

Believeing self-serving demagogues who scape-goat immigrants is something that youd think wed learnt doesnt deliver

I’m pretty sure the only people who pay attention to polls are 1. the pollsters, 2 the people showing in front on the poll, and 3, the TV station that shows it.

most folk treat them for what they are: an indication, and nothing more.

I’ll bet money there’s a poll somewhere showing how many people beleive the results of polls…

.they got it spectacularly wrong with Brexit, Trump and latterly they had May winning a landslide in the snap election

They didnt though.
Brexit was predicted to be close. Whilst the odds were on remain it was well within the margin of error.
Trump was a bit of an outlier but not a lot. It was close (after all he lost the popular vote). Could probably have done with better analysis on a state by state basis but wasnt spectacularly wrong.
The UK elections are better example. There was definitely bad polling in that case due to younger voters being missed out. It was also down to how bad her campaign was. Like Trump though it came down to quite small figures in key areas.

There was definitely bad polling in that case due to younger voters being missed out.

As I understand it it was not so much left out as under emphasised. More young people turned up to vote than expected so whilst they voted the way the pollsters thought they would their percentage of the total was miscalculated as they based their proportions on pervious turn out figures.

I think the concept of people telling the polling companies one thing and voting another is a really interesting one. This is not fibbing to friends or relatives but a perfect stranger they will never meet again. Sort of thinking what they beleive in is ‘wrong’ or not publically acceptable. A dirty secret of being a biggot or racist they can only admit to themselves in the privacy of the polling booth.

CountZero – Member

America and Trump Brexit is like watching a multi-vehicle pile-up in super slo-mo; endlessly and horrifyingly fascinating to watch, unable to tear your eyes away from the spectacle.

FTFY.

As I understand it it was not so much left out as under emphasised.

I thought it was a mix of the two. The traditional polling methods dont have the same access to them which means they do disappear. Whilst in the past it didnt matter so much due to the low turnout when they do it really buggers the polls up.

A dirty secret of being a biggot or racist they can only admit to themselves in the privacy of the polling booth.

It would be interesting to try and find out why. Although asking people why they lie to people asking them questions might pose some challenges when designing the experiment.
Thinking about what my response would be.
Probably be just not to answer. Cant articulate why but I aint a fan of answering polls. If they hassled then I might just make shit up.

Rhetoric about Mexicans (and immigrants in general), Muslims and the colour of passports don’t address the fundamental problems of an economy that’s run out of steam having been on borrowed time since the banking crisis.

It’s been on borrowed time since the end of western colonialism. China is reasserting itself as it’s natural position as the most powerful trading entity in the world – a title it has held for thousands of years. The west being dominant was a minor hiccup, we’ll be a backwater state at the mercy of Chinese economic hegemony given time.

good article on how close the polls were on trump

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
i think its more that the media underrated him than pollsters, NYT for example, while WP had been warning for a while

nyt had a good article here show how trumps always been a racist
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/15/opinion/leonhardt-trump-racist.html?_r=0

a title it has held for thousands of years.

In propaganda anyway.
It seems to skip over lots of minor details in history though such as the mongols etc.

It seems to skip over lots of minor details in history though such as the mongols etc.

This is a bit like saying the British aren’t British because of the Romans, China is Han dominated now – but the geographical region of China itself has always been a mix of various clans, ethnicities and dynasties vying for power of the state. That doesn’t detract from the fact that the region itself has always held enormous power, despite whoever is governing it.

Here’s a nice graph showing why it was a really spiffingly clever idea to leave the EU and lower our negotiation power.

Note how that between 1-1000AD China held twice the share of GDP than Western Europe and would have made Anglo Saxon Britain on it’s own look like the medieval equivalent to the Congo.

Apparently Republicans getting ever more worried about the midterms

genuine concern they could lose both house of reps & senate as reps aligned & non-aligned with trump have been getting a pasting in elections lately

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/01/17/daily-202-unexpected-defeat-in-rural-wisconsin-special-election-sets-off-alarm-bells-for-republicans/5a5eb5d230fb0469e884019a/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_daily202-755am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.bb60f6b56aec

even if he is delivering jobs & stock market at same rate or even better than Obama

at the moment though republicans are losing large numbers of minority & female voters, that had held their noses & voted for trump in 2016

whether dems could ride that momentum until november?

(also any potential meuller impeachment would need dems to control both houses, unless he unearths something really dodgy)

This is a bit like saying the British aren’t British because of the Romans

No it really isnt. Its stating that under Roman rule Britain was Roman and not an unbroken line to today.

That doesn’t detract from the fact that the region itself has always held enormous power, despite whoever is governing it.

It is that is has been a meaningless designation for a long time.

That graph isnt overly useful either. Bit odd they couldnt be bothered included what was there before the USA (which might give a hint about weaknesses in its methodology). That it has a drop during one of the good times in “Chinese” history from about 700 upwards is odd. As is the lack of any significant drop during the initial Mongol invasion. Admittedly they played elsewhere as well but given the impact of the Mongol conquest I cant help but think there should have been a rather large drop in GDP.