Armenia and Azerbaijan

This keeps coming up on the Ukraine thread. Maybe it’s better to have a separate thread for it.

I don’t really know much about the details of what’s going on there, I think they have a border dispute that’s been going on for years (decades? centuries?), Armenia is much smaller, but was a Russian ally. Now that Russia is a bit distracted, Azerbaijan has decided to step things up?

I’m guessing a good chance of many of the countries in that region rethinking their strategic positions now that Russia is failing so badly, is that going to play into Iran’s hands?

the border dispute is on a way smaller scale. Nagoro Karabackh (spelling?) is a slither of land with one ex-town in it (that was quite fun to wander round when I went). There’s a lot of national pride involved in it , but no real money or significant reason to push hard.

edit : just read the recent history on wiki. Looks like its all been given back now? Has anything happened since 2020?

I don’t think the Armenia/ Azerbaijan conflict is particualry relevant in terms of energy. However, Azerbaiijan is impotant energy and energy transmission wise. The oil form the caspian is transported across Az, into Georgia and thus across Turkey into Greece. Via. SCPX and WREP and then TANAP. Az and Georgia are former USSR and whilst Georgia has been more european aligned politically wise, Az is arguably a dictatorship and corruption is prevalent. BP got the oil rights back in the 80’s with Lord Brown and broken curfews and ‘parties’ on credit card etc. I spent several years working on these pipelines and found Az opressive. In Baku traffic it’s a Lada tied together with String followed by Range Rover, designer fashion shops and people begging etc. Not much in the way of a ‘middle class to pay the taxes.

Another spicy element in the mix is the long term hatred between Turks and Armenians, with the attempted genocide in (?)1915. In the last conflict in 2020 Az used Turkey-supplied drones to devastating effect, which is a theme we see repeated in Ukraine!!

Various insights from the World Service yesterday: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172yfc4z0mcg81 (starts 1 min in, for about 10 mins)

I had plane tickets to Yerevan but got cancelled with lockdown. Still keen to go.

It’s interesting to compare and contrast…

I’ve not been to Armenia but the everyday Azeri view seems very much to encompass 2000 yrs of history… not really a topic of everyday conversation but if you ask ethnic Azeri’s (as opposed to planted immigrants from soviet times) they have been on opposing sides since Roman/Parthian times.
Culturally Azeri’s identify as “European” (quite strongly … don’t accidentally mention their proximity to Asia) and see Russia as some sort of tie with being Europe. Azerbaijan was I’m told one of the 3 founding members of the USSR.
Older people speak Russian and younger people English…
There are a couple of 1/2 decent DH trails just outside Baku past the memorial btw
Some absolute awesome potential for MTB… I spent a long weekend in the mountains (actually doing geology stuff and with a Russian and an Armenian by birth) but their is huge potential except the land is almost all owned by the elite.

Very different to Ukraine when I’ve been there who although obviously identifying as European don’t do so through Russia and to some extent see “Russia / Russian culture” being the dilution or extension of Kiev..
Most people I met in Kiev spoke Russian in work and thought nothing of it.. any more than speaking English to me as their English was invariably better than my Russian. [Unlike Azerbaijan where my bad russian was often needed professionally or just getting a taxi]

Ukraine seemed to have a huge (progressive) separation between Putin’s Russia and Russians. I was there post crimea and pre Zelensky (on one occasision I was in St Petersburg the following week) and people were VERY VERY much against Putin’s Russia whilst fully recognising Russians were just people like them born on the other side of what it today (then) a border.

If I was to summarise I’d say Azerbaijan shows (showed) a lot of diffidence to Russia (the country) whereas Ukraine was the opposite.

I was in Georgia and Armenia earlier this year. Armenia was definitely an interesting place. As mentioned above about the Azeris, the Armenians look back thousands of years when talking about Armenia. They class Armenia as a much bigger area than it is on the map today, particularly in Azerbaijan and Turkey around Mt Ararat.

During the Soviet occupation various bits of Armenia were parcelled up and given to neighbouring countries – Mt Ararat was given to Turkey in exchange for an unkept promise to join the USSR for example. When the USSR dissolved parts of Armenia were given to Azerbaijan and there’s been disagreements since, but they have been at each other’s throats for millenia.

Azerbaijan has lately been able to take bits of land in the north by force – with oil money they have a decent military and kit while the Armenian army still uses ancient Gaz jeeps, Kamaz trucks and Kalashnikovs that they’ve had since the 70s. They don’t stand a chance. So in the north there’s several abandoned villages that, in all honesty, are tiny and barely worth Azerbaijan’s effort but it’s easy pickings for them.

This means you have anomalous borders like this one-

https://goo.gl/maps/xt8RfpJ6acte8HVD7

It’s not disputed, it’s a clear border on the maps rather than a dashed line like, for example, Transdniestria in Ukraine and Moldova. The Armenians portray a real image of being persecuted and we were told this border is a nonsense and the real maps showing the correct border are in the Kremlin.

They have a very different relationship with Russia to neighbouring Georgia. In Georgia we got the impression that the government line is “be nice to the Russians, or they’ll invade us” but the public hate them and there’s a lot of anti-Russian graffiti and spaces. Armenians don’t like how the Russians behave (they’re infamously rude) but are dependent on them – the Russian military is present on the border with Azerbaijan on an actual peacekeeping mission, not like the one they claim to be on in Ukraine. So the Armenians see Russia as a provider of safety and security. They also don’t like how the government handled the invasion and have been protesting in Yerevan for at least a year now (although when we were there the protest looked more like a party and were told that’s essentially what happens when a lot of Armenians get together).

All of the current situation, in essence, a result of the fall of the USSR. Armenians are real outliers in that they see perestroika as the start of their recent troubles, while much of the rest of the former Soviet Republics see it as a source of freedom. The Armenians blame it for the fall of the USSR and the loss of their security. The young people are naturally glad they’re not part of it, but older people seemed to miss the safety from both Azerbaijan but also the secure jobs and pensions.

Despite all their “woe is me” rhetoric, I’m inclined to agree with the Armenians that Azerbaijan doesn’t really have a claim to any of the territory that it’s trying to take and is really just being a bigger, more powerful neighbourhood bully. The affect it will have on us in the UK is probably pretty minimal if it does kick off again – Armenia doesn’t have much to provide us with and will struggle to fight back so oil supplies won’t be affected.

Just add that Azerbajan has a close relationship with an ever increasingly powerful Turkey, a big deal economically. They speak the same language and are all Turkic people.

In a different life when there was still an iron curtain I spent a couple of weeks travelling close to the border. (Abandoned town of Ani, you had to get a permit to visit, and you could see soviet troops the other side of the river; blonde kids and terrifying sheepdogs in the hills round doubeyazit. Ararat floating above everything, it’s quite an area.) No particular insights but does make you clock it when it’s n the news. “Karabakh” also has a turkish name that I’ve forgotten, so prob just a coincidence that “kara” is Turkish for ‘black’ and “bakh” phonetically at least would mean “look”.

Thanks for starting the thread, I’m looking forward to finding out more about this

I’m guessing a good chance of many of the countries in that region rethinking their strategic positions now that Russia is failing so badly

Yep, we may well be starting a Georgia thread at some point as it is considering taking back the territory stolen by Russian backed separatists (sound familiar?)

There is also the religious difference.

Wandering wildly off topic, there was a documentary on BBC radio with a bit about the role of techno in social protest. I thought of it cos it includes a description of a party in Tbilisi which sounded like the one in Yerevan mentioned above
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0019rjb

Sorry. I’ll be quiet now…

P.s. So much knowledge on this forum. It’s incredible (but why are the tv/movie recommendations so crap?)

I’m not to up on the conflict

However, we have a branch out there, i had hte pleasure to spend a couple of days in Baku in late 2018 i think..

The city is very up and coming…lots of new fantastic buildings, intermixed with much older middle eastern style buildings.
Our staff out there are all muslim, russian speakers, although one night we all went to a brewery, where we ate pork and drunk beer.. So a more relaxed attitude to religion i guess.
The streets are full of traffic (i wouldnt have been able to drive there), from 70 year old russian military trucks, Ladas etc, to really blinged up high end Mercedes.
A fantastic place to visit in my opinion.

I don’t have a lot to add and it’s off topic, sorry. We used to do some work in Azerbaijan. I was lucky and never had to go there thankfully.
It was mostly working out of a Contractors compound apparently.
My colleague went, he got picked up from the airport by an employee of the company we were doing work for.
No English spoken, he got driven out into the middle of nowhere, absolutely crapping himself to be introduced to the guys family, where they all were amazed by his blonde hair and blue eyes.
He then relaxed a bit. Still hated it there though.

I’ve not much to add except I was lucky enough to go to Baku for the F1 Grand Prix last year. Fascinating place outside of the bubble and I do intend to go back there for a longer mooch around. Struck by the overwhelming friendliness and inclusive atmosphere. Lovely place. I know it’s a long way from the conflict area but folks are folks aren’t they?

brian2

I’ve not much to add except I was lucky enough to go to Baku for the F1 Grand Prix last year.

Yep it’s stuff like he F1 shows how it’s determined to continue to remain a 3rd world country in the sort of thin-fat (like thin person with fatty arteries) sort of way.

Hosting the F1 was paid for by *directly* and almost exclusively by taking money from development funds.

Strange topic to post on a cycling forum

Lolz @ bruneep 😂. More likely to find a geo-political expert on here than a cyclist 😂😂

Unless I have come to the thread late it’s in the Chat section so how is it a strange topic to post?

Clearly the people of Azerbaijan are in dire humanitarian peril, and need vast amounts of highly profitable weaponry to have any chance of fighting back against their oppressors:

In 2019, the Rand Corp., the brain of US militarism, published a report with nearly six pages on how the US could stoke conflict in the Caucasus — esp. between Armenia and Azerbaijan — to help weaken Russia’s influence. Last night, Azerbaijan invaded Armenia. When does it stop? pic.twitter.com/sdQIYGpOIu

— Paweł Wargan (@pawelwargan) September 13, 2022

At least it’s not 12 months old 🙂

It’s all very interesting, but who’s side are we on 🤷‍♂️🤔?

Clearly the people of Azerbaijan are in dire humanitarian peril, and need vast amounts of highly profitable weaponry to have any chance of fighting back against their oppressors:

Well I haven’t read the report but does it advocate supporting Azerbaijan?

I think everyone in the region has realized that Russia is a failed power and they might as well grab as much territory as they can.

Heavy clashes this morning between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on the border area. pic.twitter.com/u6Mqa2Qa6N

— Aldin ?? (@aldin_aba) September 16, 2022

Well I haven’t read the report but does it advocate supporting Azerbaijan?

Supporting any “side” in a conflict that pre-dates the Roman republic is never a good idea….

It’s complicated but I’d side with the Armenians. They won’t have started this conflict – their army is way too weak and they’ve lost basically every time in a conflict with Azerbaijan until Russia has joined in. And they know Russia mostly has its hands full.

I could, almost, see what jivehoneyjive posted as being true. A stopped clock and all that. But if the US wanted to spread Russian forces thin then giving Azerbaijan the kit to go and take some land from a country Russia has agreed to defend is one way of doing it.

Interesting fact but apparently the Armenian genocide was used in 194something to help define the new term. Apparently Arminians were disproportionately represented in banking and business… Sound familiar. It was apparently used as inspiration by by some guy.

Between bordering on Iran and being key to the continued flow of oil and gas, it comes as no surprise NATO has interests in the area…

Same Azeri soldiers that US led Nato invites to their trainings,and gives military aid to

This is Al Qaeda ISIS level of dehumanisation

— Sapa Tested (@Overcumma) September 16, 2022

(How come sanctions were never placed on ISIS trading the oil they seized? Or on Saudi Arabia for not only funding Al Qaeda and ISIS, but also trading in Russian oil and gas…)

https://medium.com/@Oillywood/ebrd-to-lend-500m-for-azerbaijan-gas-pipeline-5ebb3672acd4

But surely they’ve learnt that previous missions haven’t done a great deal for the peace they always pretend to pursue…

So it was the US indiscriminately bombing civilian areas in Syria was it? Not Assad and the Russians?

Some serious selective memory going on there, but hey, tankies gonna tank.

And it certainly is interesting to learn that Afghanistan under the Taliban in 2001 was a liberal paradise where women could go round with uncovered hair

So it was the US indiscriminately bombing civilian areas in Syria was it?

To some extent, yes, and let’s not forget Timber Sycamore and covert support of extremists.

interesting to learn that Afghanistan under the Taliban in 2001 was a liberal paradise where women could go round with uncovered hair

Good to know you’re interested in learning; perhaps you could educate yourself on the wider history of Afghanistan and the role of Operation Cyclone in the Taliban taking power

(and the formation of Al-Qaeda)

Oh god I’ve taken bait here haven’t I?

To some extent,

O.K. let’s quantify that shall we?

According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, Assads forces and the Russian are responsible for over 207,000 civilian deaths from 2011 to 2022.

The International Coalition Forces (which include the US) were responsible for just over 3,000.

The HRW report you linked to about an single air strike in 2019 (years after the worst of the fighting had finished) shows that the US’s involvement was far from perfect and did indeed lead to civilian casualties but to extrapolate that into ‘USA are the big bad here’ when Assad and the Russians were indiscriminately bombing the hell out of rebel-held neighbourhoods is utter nonsense.

And also, no Russian occupation of Afghanistan, no operation Cyclone. Did it backfire? Yes. However, the state of Afghanistan in 2001 was in now way soley down to the USA, I am very aware of the pre-2001 history of the region thanks.

I am very aware of the pre-2001 history of the region thanks.

Glad to hear it, if we are to reduce the level of conflict in the world (and it’s vast enviromental impact) a wider awareness is key…

The US military recently released a report analysing the Department of Defense’s climate risk. The Pentagon thoughtfully acknowledged that rising temperatures are “reshaping” the world with “more frequent, intense, and unpredictable extreme weather conditions caused by climate change”, but they failed to analyse the Defense Department’s own contributions to climate change.

This came as a surprise, as ample evidence has been published before the report detailing how dangerous the US military’s climate change contributions are. In 2019, a report released by Durham and Lancaster University found the US military to be “one of the largest climate polluters in history, consuming more liquid fuels and emitting more CO2e (carbon-dioxide equivalent) than most countries”. It established that if the US military were a nation state, it would be the 47th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world. These figures were from taking into account the emissions from fuel usage alone.

This report did not come as a shock. The US military is a vast infrastructure and relies upon an extensive global network of trucks, cargo planes and container ships to supply its operations. These operations can range from anything – to humanitarian aid, to bombs and hydrocarbon fuels.

Gathering data about the US Armed Forces can be difficult. With their decision to withdraw from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the US is exempt from reporting their military emissions. However, gathering statistics from their negligent actions can be obtained through local news organisations, NGOs, lobbyists and Freedom of Information requests.

Now I’m not for one moment suggesting the US is the only antagonist here; obviously Russia plays a major role in stoking global conflict, as do NATO, whose very existence relies on continued conflict and a lucrative arms trade.

You’d hope governments had cottoned on to it by now, but alas, there is too much money to be made and resources to be plundered for any scenario beyond a forever war.

It’s hard to imagine that these latest escalations aren’t just another cynical exercise in a very real and very dangerous game of RISK by world powers

Now I’m not for one moment suggesting the US is the only antagonist here

Yet the graphic you posted is an anti-US propaganda piece.

snip…as do NATO, whose very existence relies on continued conflict and a lucrative arms trade

What do you understand NATO to be?
Why was it created? (Starter for 10: 50-56mn people directly killed during WW2 and another 19-28mn through disease and famine, also during WW2)
Who can join NATO?
How much is directly contributed to NATO?

Yet the graphic you posted is an anti-US propaganda piece.

If anyone can explain why that graphic has a header 2001 on, and a photo from the 70s that’d be great at.

I thought it was Turkey training troops outside of NATO? (Genuine question this one, not rhetorical)

How odd, no mention of war crimes, just leaping to the defence of the world’s largest military, who lest we forget, are spread around the globe:

Are you suggesting the US doesn’t have a long history of invading countries on the other side of the globe and wreaking havoc?

Who can join NATO?
How much is directly contributed to NATO?

How many people have been killed as a result of NATO interventions, which are all too often a cover for corporate resource grabs?

What is NATO’s carbon footprint…

a) In terms of infrastructure and operations?

b) In the wider context of the resources exploited as a result of their invasions?

Of course, there’s no guarantee this is the way the situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is headed, but it’s worthy of discussion; after all, let’s not forget Venezuela, mentioned in the graphic which has stirred so much controversy has the world’s largest oil reserves.

Would if be so far fetched to suggest resources and geopolitics may play a role in how outside agencies interact in the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia… not only in terms of covert support, but also in terms of media spin?

Now tell me how many times NATO has deployed into a battlefield and fired weapons

Since that’s your specialty, I’ll let you answer…