Are we heading for a second recession? and ….

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  • Are we heading for a second recession? and ….
  • mudsux
    Member

    Apparently, Europe is on the brink of a meltdown and a double-dip recession is looking increasingly likely. And how will this affect house prices?

    coffeeking
    Member

    Good questions. I liked the interview with a government chappy the other day "a double dip recession is looking increasingly inevitable"…. eh?

    But on the positive side, I love a double dip!

    Premier Icon the-muffin-man
    Subscriber

    We've not come out of the first recession yet!!!*

    (OK technically, on-paper we have but thats a load of rollocks).

    Premier Icon epicyclo
    Subscriber

    The recession never went away.

    coffeeking
    Member

    No-one's defining it as a second recession, just a second dip within the recession 🙂 Hence the name "double dip recession".

    Can we still ride our bikes.?

    coffeeking
    Member

    Probably. But don't expect to be able to afford to fix them, so go careful 🙂

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    Its going to get a lot lot worse before it gets any better. Whoever gets in after the next election is going to have to take an axe to public services that will make Thatcher look like some kindly benevolent aunt. Anyone who doesn't think that's the case is living in la-la-land

    If I was working in the public sector I'd be preparing for unemployment. As I work in the private sector I don't have to prepare as I'm already there. Hurray for capitlism!!!

    wombat
    Member

    What tyres for the second dip? 🙂

    coffeeking
    Member

    high rollers 🙂

    ooOOoo
    Member

    'buy now, pay later'
    Welcome to later 😥

    coffeeking
    Member

    I never bought, thanks a bunch!

    As a public sector employee I'm almost waiting for the inevitable "chat" to happen, despite the "reassurances" that healthcare won't be effected. Bollox, my employing Trust is going to be in massive debt shortly as the PFI funded new hospital will be opened – despite Labour many years ago pre a general election stating that PFI was a bad idea and that they'd be abolished – yeah, right!

    A lot of things seem better than they really are at the moment because all the things that are used to calculate figures have been held artificially low for sometime.
    When Interest rates rise, & the effect of low VAT, stamp duty, car scrapage schemes etc are factored in it looks very drastic indeed 😐

    Premier Icon lowey
    Subscriber

    As binners said, after the election we can look forward to massive cuts in public spending, inevitable increase in taxation, inflation on the up, house prices stagnant, banks refusing still to lend to business or indeed provide any sort of support and increasing unemployment. It really is a very very bleak picture.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    already starting to see more repossesions come on the market round our way (london)
    once the interest rates rises in earnest then we will be seeing a lot more
    should have an effect of lowering prices quite a bit

    how much money could be saved if we pulled out of afgahnistan tomorrow?
    would that be enough to avoid the worst public service cuts?

    and europe could take a lot longer to come out of this than us, which sucks coz they are our biggest trading partner, so will keep us from comming out quickly

    corroded
    Member

    I don't see things getting better for Britain than where they are now for at least a decade. The cost of living will go up (with higher and more volatile energy prices as Asia booms) but wages won't. Spending will contract further. The picture for the whole of Europe looks very gloomy: currently in places like Italy and Germany, there are four people taxpayers for every state-supported citizen (pensioners etc). In a few years that will be three to one.

    This is depressing, I may as well of got into massive debt for the last 10 years like all the other idiots out there.

    avdave2
    Member

    Should I cash in my shares now?

    lodious
    Member

    Dunno about other sectors, but engineering looks a whole lot better than this time last year.

    TimP
    Member

    At least it is sunny outside (in Brighton)

    headfirst
    Member

    Yeah, cheer up everyone, if we think we're in a recession then we'll stay in one.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    i wouldnt worry too much about it all

    a) there is nothing you can do

    b) economists have an incredibly poor recent track record on predicting the financial future

    c) there is always a lot of doom mongering spread around before a general election

    d) the media loves a good scare story

    e) you can always go and ride your bike, which makes everything seem a bit better ime

    f) oh yeah and a house price crash would be great for me as i could get on the property ladder and the insane property prices in this country in general could be sorted out

    Premier Icon binners
    Subscriber

    Yeah… your right. Rousing chorus everyone 😀

    soobalias
    Member

    the public sector will not really start to feel the pinch that the private sector felt till the new financial year.

    add to that a government who will put off the inevitable till after the election…..

    and
    and
    AND
    the chilterns are really soggy at the moment 🙁

    ooOOoo
    Member

    If we'd not had the boom, and then the bust, would we have ended up roughly where we are anyway?

    tron
    Member

    I'd love a good house price crash. They're too bloody expensive, and it doesn't do anyone but owners of multiple properties any good.

    coffeeking
    Member

    I'd love a good house price crash. They're too bloody expensive, and it doesn't do anyone but owners of multiple properties any good.

    But a price crash hurts current owners, which isn't nice. (I'd like one too but I'd not like to see others in my family in massive negative equity even more).

    backhander
    Member

    Yeah a property crash and the associated interest rise is just what the country needs 🙄
    Do you want people to lose their homes?
    If you can't afford a house, look for a smaller place or get a better paying job.

    Premier Icon JCornford
    Subscriber

    Please no house price crash, I am close to completion on mine and it's been a real struggle to get back on the market.

    oldgit
    Member

    Feeling it badly in my trade 'Electrical' linked to building and industry.
    Figures were going up until Dec 2009, the weather might be an issue in my line of work, but I'm seriously bunny nosing.

    tails
    Member

    get a better paying job.

    Easier said than done 😡

    Colin-T
    Member

    If you can't afford a house, look for a smaller place or get a better paying job.

    A shame the third option of "Borrow far far more than you can afford" is no longer available to those trying to get onto the housing ladder.

    We could be in Haiti with a limb roughly hacked off and all our close friends and family dead.

    No you're right, not being able to put a massive palace on credit is worse.

    Premier Icon Shandy
    Subscriber

    Its going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

    One thing though, banks will still lend to trading businesses. Now that they've been bailed out they are going back to "traditional banking" which means LIBOR plus 3% and a nice hefty arrangement fee. Good for them.

    zaskar
    Member

    I disagree, the model of capitalism is working -we 've had the dip and now we're stabilising and can come out of this with time-how much I don't know.

    People are taking other jobs with less pay and hrs.

    This has been happening for years.

    how will this affect house prices

    It might force them back to a realistic level.

    it's been a real struggle to get back on the market.

    Are you mental? By struggling to get "into the market" you help fuel said market and create the struggle for yourself. It's a recession. House prices are unsustainable. If you wait, they'll fall, you already know that.

    backhander
    Member

    No they can't. There's too many sold at the high price.
    A crash would see too many people bankrupt and the lenders with properties worth less than they lent to the buyers.
    these prices are here to stay mate.

    , the model of capitalism is working

    Over priced housing that many first time buyers can't afford.
    The goverment printing money it doesn't have.
    Business collapsing and jobs being lost.
    Tens of billions to bail out the banks.

    How would you describe capitalism not working?
    ..or..
    You are Gordon Brown and I claim my £5

    Premier Icon lowey
    Subscriber

    get a better paying job.

    Genius. My problems are over. Thanks for that.

    Premier Icon ctznsmith
    Subscriber

    the model of capitalism is working

    It is…people's welfare sadly is not one of the parameters in the model.

    (although some people do need to redress what they view as 'necessities', but hey their high expectations are due to/a requirement of Capitalism in the first place! :))

    A crash would see too many people bankrupt and the lenders with properties worth less than they lent to the buyers.

    Property prices are set by the market, it's one of the few areas where that's the case. people are taking cuts in income and losing their jobs, whilst banks are tightening up on lending.
    Fewer people buying with less money to spend doesn't fuel a property boom does it?
    Also, if there are (and no-one's going to argue that there aren't) going to be massive public sector cuts, do you think that might affect the property market? The NHS alone is the fourth largest employer in the world, the cuts to it alone will have a serious and sustained effect on the housing market, at the very least to the extent that NHS employees wil be less keen to risk taking on a mortgage that they'll be unable to pay if they lose their jobs then their homes. Multiply that over the whole public sector and the picture looks less rosy than you seem to think. then factor in the private sector job losses and you think the econly can really sustain boom house prices do you?
    then let's add to that little mix the people who are not spending money now because the see the need to be saving, just in case. Those savings are money not circulating round the economy creating jobs as it goes. reduced economic activity = high house prices?

    Premier Icon ctznsmith
    Subscriber

    Maybe we need to cull a few old people logan's run style.

    Not only would it reduce the 'pensions burden' but people would inherit their assets so encouraging spending and the government gets more tax from it too, reducing the public borrowing?

    Win/win…no? 🙁

    On a serious note are there any stats for increasing death rates during economic down turns?

    Premier Icon molgrips
    Subscriber

    The goverment printing money it doesn't have

    It prints it, so it does have it. That's why it's called printing and not borrowing 🙂 Oh and it's the Bank of England anyway not the Govt.

    Premier Icon kimbers
    Subscriber

    backhander – Member

    Yeah a property crash and the associated interest rise is just what the country needs
    Do you want people to lose their homes?
    If you can't afford a house, look for a smaller place or get a better paying job.

    or how about you shouldnt have borrowed at such a ridculously large factor of your income,ie a house you couldnt really afford, in the 1st place

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