are there aliens?

The chances of life forming on earth were small. Very small indeed. In a universe of limitless size that has existed since well before World War I. It was all just a bunch of chance and co-incidence that god created us. Some say the odds are nearly as long as Arsenal ever winning the Premier League again.

For that to have happened again somewhere else is both spectacularly unlikely but, somewhat conversely, entirely likely. And for it to happen during our brief flicker of intelligence puts the odds even higher.

It is both entirely impossible and completely likely in equal measure.

Possibly.

have I got that right?

No.

That wasn’t where we started.

Graham’s opening gambit was.

I can’t see how it could be possible that we are the only life in the entire universe.

That seems fairly certain to me.

But several others have been just as adamant.

Anyone here fancy a trip to Titan?

I see I’m winning you round.

Nope sorry. Feel free to substitute “extremely likely” there is life with the tautology “it is extremely unlikely that we are alone”, if that makes my point clearer.

“I can’t see how it could be possible that we are the only life in the entire universe.”

That’s not to say it is impossible, but I personally can’t see how it could possibly be the case given our current understandings.

There would have to be something uniquely special about Earth that hasn’t happened on billions and billions of other planets over billions of years – and so far we have no evidence for that.

No one, in the history of the internet, has ever changed their mind due to a well reasoned argument being put forward on a forum.

I have – but it doesn’t seem likely today 🙂

With the lottery, money goes into a pot.

Numbers are drawn.

Eventually someone wins.

You’re talking about a church hall raffle. We’re talking about a National Lottery draw where its perfectly possible to have no winners.

But the more tickets are bought in any given week, the more winners you can expect, regardless of the actual probability of any given ticket being a winner (ie any randomly picked planet supporting life).

The number of stars and galaxies is totally irrelevant.

What if we were the only planet in the universe? or there were only two? or ten? or a hundred million? or …. ?

I heard that they mostly come at night. Mostly…

Steven Tyler is almost certainly an Alien

Even in the worst circumstances, eventually all of the combinations of numbers will be covered and the lottery will be won.

Ah so, if you buy enough planets tickets then someone wins?
But I thought you said the number of planets tickets didn’t matter? 😀

I read G’s position as “it seems that it’s probable”

have I got that right?

Yes emsz, though possibly slightly stronger than that. More like “it seems that it’s EXTREMELY probable”

So RPRT, rather than saying ‘No it isn’t’ a lot, can you summarise your position because it’s hard for a stupid thicko like me to follow your chain of reasoning at the moment.

Wasn’t there a theory that life originated on Earth via a meteorite carrying bacteria/viruses?

portlyone – the strangely named panspermia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia

Could you explain why the number of stars and galaxies dont alter the odds?

Because we don’t know what the probability of life on earth was before it happened.

We have nothing to extrapolate from.

If the chance of life occurring spontaneously is infinitesimally small, then even multiplying it by a very big number makes no difference. To all intents and purposes it would still be virtually zero chance.

In scientific terms, having a bigger number of stars planets would be akin to “turning the amp up to 11”

go look up the Fermi-Hart Paradox

I always kind of think if you go in your garden and pick up a rock, there might be an earwig under it.

I could study the earwig even up close and it would never be aware of my presence. I could completely re-arrange it’s habitat and it still wouldn’t be able to conceive that I was there doing it. I could squash it and it would never know to blame me. I certainly wouldn’t bother trying to talk to it.

So if some superior race or beings were that much more intelligent and enlightened than us happen to be around I don’t see how we would be able to conceive of them anyway, much like the earwig and me in my garden.

You look like ET.

If the chance of life occurring spontaneously is infinitesimally small, then even multiplying it by a very big number makes no difference. To all intents and purposes it would still be virtually zero chance.

If it were “infinitesimally small” then we wouldn’t be here.

Because we don’t know what the probability of life on earth was before it happened.

Based on your lottery argument it was 1.0 wasn’t it? 😀

So the sum as you see it is

Number of planets with life = Total number of planets in the universe that could potentially support life x probability of life actually evolving. And yes, if that probability is suitably small and the number of stars is suitably big then one possible answer to that is 1, ie. us. But why is that more or less likely than any other answer?

You’re talking about a church hall raffle. We’re talking about a National Lottery draw where its perfectly possible to have no winners.

No it’s not.

You may not have a winner in one particular week, but eventually you will have a winner. Eventually all of the combinations will be covered and someone will win.

Even if we send probes to every planet in the universe it is possible that they will all come up -ve.

Based on your lottery argument it was 1.0 wasn’t it?

I see there are people here who know even less about probability than Graham.

I see there are people here who know even less about probability than Graham.

Based on your lottery argument

’nuff said. 😉

You may not have a winner in one particular week, but eventually you will have a winner. Eventually all of the combinations will be covered and someone will win.

I’m talking about one draw in one week with one set of tickets.

And even if you want to keep on drawing next week, and the week after, and on as long as you like, this…

Eventually all of the combinations will be covered and someone will win.

…is still wrong, sorry 🙂

Ahha! I’ve got it rightplacerighttime works for MiB, quick everyone put on you shades before the bright light come through your monitor.

Can I clarify the lottery thing because it seems to be causing confusion.

I said:

Winning the lottery is quite unlikely, but somewhat less so if you buy 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tickets (estimated number of stars in the universe).

What I meant by that flippant remark is that for ONE DRAW of the National Lottery there could be 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tickets sold and still no jackpot winner!

But I think everyone would agree that is highly unlikely – even though the odds of your one ticket winning are very small (1 in 13,983,816), it would be quite amazing if there wasn’t a large number of winners from that number of entrants.

i.e. the number of planets/tickets clearly does alter the overall odds of a successful outcome.

Don’t forget time, that multiplies it by another huge number so even more likely

I am very happy with the comment “it is extremely unlikely that we are alone”

Intelligent alien lifeforms in “can’t be arsed to talk to humanity” shocker.

They could ask us a lot – “what tyres for space?”

Would a spaceship take off on a conveyor belt & how to vent post picolax waste in space 🙂

Should we employ translators for aliens in NHS hospitals?

The probability of winning the national lottery is roughly 1 in 14 million for each draw for a single ticket. Previous draws not being won do not change the probability of future draws (thinking otherwise is known as the Gamblers Paradox)

Because of the random way that numbers are picked for each draw there is no guarantee that all the combinations will be covered for any draw so the probability is never 1. But the probability become lower as more tickets are bought (Think Graham S has explained this pretty well too)

We don’t know the probabilty of life forming on Earth but as we are here discussing it (that would be the Anthropic principle) we know its higher than zero. Therefore having lots of Galaxies / stars / planets etc will obviously shorten the odds to argue otherwise is pointless

Aliens must exist , who else would buy those pig ugly bikes from Orange??

infinitesimally small

/grinds teeth

😉

If the chance of life occurring spontaneously is infinitesimally small, then even multiplying it by a very big number makes no difference. To all intents and purposes it would still be virtually zero chance.

So your argument would be if we had 20 planets or infinite planets the odds are the same of their being life ANYWHERE …do I really need to explain why that is poorly thought out?

In scientific terms, having a bigger number of stars planets would be akin to “turning the amp up to 11”

That is just stupid, Does buying more lottery tickets not alter your odds of winning?
It’s so funny you mock us for our comprehension of probabilities… I thought troll at first tbh.

I see there are people here who know even less about probability than Graham.

No one has defended your view everyone has attacked it. So either we are all wrong and you are right or we are right and you are wrong. I am not surprised that given your comprehension of probabilities you go for the former.

The number of stars and galaxies is totally irrelevant.

so if I give you one chimp and one typewriter and I have infinite chimps and infinite typewriters our odds are the same of creating Shakespeare as nothing has changed 😯

I dont really understand why you are arguing this TBH it seems obvious tyhat it does, at the very least, alter the odds

Because of the random way that numbers are picked for each draw there is no guarantee that all the combinations will be covered for any draw so the probability is never 1. But the probability become lower as more tickets are bought (Think Graham S has explained this pretty well too)

It would get to 1 because of “lucky dip” tickets, which select an unchosen combination if one is available.

But we are getting away from the main point.

Junkyard:

…do I really need to explain why that is poorly thought out?

Yes, you do.

The point about the alien life problem is that it can’t be solved by theory. Empirical evidence is required and we have none. Until we get some, we are simply guessing.

so if I give you one chimp and one typewriter and I have infinite chimps and infinite typewriters our odds are the same of creating Shakespeare as nothing has changed

Are you suggesting that there are an infinite number of planets?

Is this a what tyre for olympus mons thread?

It would get to 1 because of “lucky dip” tickets, which select an unchosen combination if one is available.

*nnnnnurk*

A brave attempt, but no. The Lucky Dip is randomly chosen. Doing anything else would violate the principles and rules governing a lottery.

‘Lucky Dip®’ means a Selection consisting of six different numbers which, instead of being selected by a Retail Player, are selected on a random basis by the Company’s Central Computer System on behalf of that player.
— http://www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/p/help/playinginstore/gameprocedures/lotto.ftl

.

Are you suggesting that there are an infinite number of planets?

I guess there must be if the chance of life is “infinitesimally small” 😀

Actually, sorry, I apologize wholeheartedly for my gross error.

I was wrong about the lucky dip thing.

However, the probability of winning would still eventually get to 1 as once the pot got big enough it would be worth someone buying a ticket with each combination.

But really, my point about the planets is important – do you think there are an infinite number or not?

The point about the alien life problem is that it can’t be solved by theory. Empirical evidence is required

Right.

and we have none.

Wrong! as was repeatedly pointed out upthread, we have quite a lot of empirical evidence on (a) the conditions under which life can exist and (b) the number of places in the universe where those conditions might be present.

And both (a) and (b) are turning out to be much wider categories than anyone previously thought.

“Technology from a very advanced civilization will be indistinguishable from magic”

are you sayiong paul daniels iis an alien?
explains a lot.

However, the probability of winning would still eventually get to 1 as once the pot got big enough it would be worth someone buying a ticket with each combination.

you mean someone would buy more tickets to guarantee a win? EUREKA!

However, the probability of winning would still eventually get to 1 as once the pot got big enough it would be worth someone buying a ticket with each combination.

Possibly true*, but that’s talking about multiple lottery draws, not a single draw (as I explained earlier).

(* it’d be a risky gamble. Say the pot was at 28 million and you had 14 million quid just sitting around. You could buy every ticket combination and be assured of winning the jackpot, plus all lower prizes – BUT you risk sharing it with other people and making a loss).

But really, my point about the planets is important – do you think there are an infinite number or not?

Nope. Current thinking is there are a VERY large number, but not infinite.

Even if we send probes to every planet in the universe it is possible that they will all come up -ve.

this isn’t true, there’s at least one. Right?

Depends if you’re looking for intelligent life emsz 😉