Too soon for a thread?
Not looking good is it? Ukraine grinding on with no end in sight, Israel and Iran on the brink of all-out war (or already there) , ethnic cleansing in Gaza, China and the US engaging in increased 'come and have a go if you think you're hard enough' rhetoric, and all the so-called 'sensible' states in Europe spending 100s of billions on weapons and armaments. Feels very much like this is heading in one direction in a mad rush to self-destruction. Extremely depressing.
I think you'll find that it's scheduled for the end of Q3 this year.
I do feel like this tension happens every few years/months then we bump up against it and it just sorts of fades into the distance (for us.)
But maybe one time it won't.
Starmer "Call on everyone to de-escalate."
Starmer "Here's some Typhoons."
Same old. Then more displaced people. Anger at migrants. Rinse and repeat.
Leaders around the world sure don't set a good standard these days.
I think the Middle East has probably reached that tipping point where if they all blow each other to kingdom come, would anybody really miss them? They’ve been itching for an all out war for decades, so maybe just say ‘**** it!’ and just let ‘em get on with it?
The oil price spike would probably be a PITA for a bit*, but other than that….? 🤷♂️
*Maybe we could offset the cost of that with increasing arms sales to anyone in the region who wants to buy them?
I do feel like this tension happens every few years/months then we bump up against it and it just sorts of fades into the distance (for us.)
Which is basically the lead up to WWI.
There had been plenty of flare ups in the Balkans but they had all faded away up until the point it didnt and there is no definitive reason why.
That Franz Ferdinand was the one killed definitely didnt help since he had previously argued for political resolution to the previous conflicts and so his death undermined that side whilst boosting the other.
Then there was the fact the French leaders had limited communications during the critical period since they were returning from Russia and it seems like there was a disconnect between what the Russians had thought had been agreed and what the French though.
In the UK we were finally actually taking Ireland seriously with the politicians concentrating on coming up with an answer to the centuries of conflict.
The news at the of the assination does seem very much to be "and in other news this bloke got killed but anyway now the weather"
That plus the arms race particularly that the dreadnought class had reset naval supremacy and that the schlieffen plan required Germany to beat France and Russia to the punch turned it into a bit of a slippery slope.
I reckon civil war in the USA is more likely.
It won’t be declared WW3 until after it finishes, we won’t know we’re in it at the time. It could be now, it’s only when someone writes the history books in years to come that we’ll fully understand.
It won’t be declared WW3 until after it finishes
It won't be declared WW3 until the US turns up; it's considered polite to be a couple of years late 😜
It has already started with technoeconomic battles happening all the time. YouTube or read some of Sir Alex Younger's stuff on it.
Whether it escalates to guns and bombs remains to be seen.
it’s only when someone writes the history books in years to come that we’ll fully understand
What if there’s nobody left to write the history books because the few who remain are busy fighting each other to the death for the last tin of corned beef in a scorched apocalyptic wasteland?
The world does appear to be getting a lot more dangerous than at any time I can remember. The previous back stop of the USA has been totally destroyed; not even a new administration will be able to repair the damage Trump has caused.
Trump has made USA as weak as its been since WW2. What better time to do some land grabs safe in the knowledge USA is being run by a bunch of self serving idiots.
It's about time we made world leaders fight their own battles instead of sending us serfs to die in wars we don't care about. Put Zelensky and Putin in the cage, whoever survives gets the others country.
Good excuse for some iron maiden though innit?
Preface every statement on the coming war with “Israel has the right to defend itself” and you have free reign to do whatever you like, and if you go too far then the absolute worst response you get is “we call on (insert here) to de-escalate”
The world does appear to be getting a lot more dangerous than at any time I can remember.
I can remember watching TV ads recruiting for the Royal Observer Corps and their role in the event of nuclear bombs/missiles landing on the UK. I can also remember hearing the air raid sirens being tested regularly in Edinburgh.
They still test the air raid sirens here, March last year was the last one. If there's an air raid I'll no doubt assume they're testing the sirens.
The SS20- Pershing stand off in the early 80s felt quite real. When I was working for the NAAFI in Munster there was a big exercise that included getting a load of equipment over the North sea. Lots of reserves mobilised, some cars and street furniture got flattened by tanks and much beer was drunk and the officers in the bar reckoned everyone involved would have been dead within the first two days in the event of a real attack.
It's OK Trumphas waded in a nd told them to make a deal, that'll sort it.
and all the so-called 'sensible' states in Europe spending 100s of billions on weapons and armaments.
Given the current state of the world I'd be more concerned if they weren't upping defence spending.
I wouldn't be. There is no chance of Israel attacking a European country and Russia has been spending the last three years or so proving to everyone just how much they struggle militarily against a relatively weak country on their doorstep.
No invading army is going to attack Western Europe and even if they did why would existing defence assets not be sufficient to deal with it? The threat to Western Europe now seems smaller than at anytime since the end of the cold war, so other than to perhaps deal with the issue of less defence commitment to Europe from the United States I can't see a justification for increased spending.
What about aliens though? You haven’t factored them in, have you? It’s the flippant complacency of people like you that’s probably going to result in the extinction of the human race. You can never be too careful…
It’s the flippant complacency of people like you that’s probably going to result in the extinction of the human race.
It's tin foil hat time..... flippancy will bring about the destruction of the human race!!!
Alternatively, the drive to war might.
Good point about aliens btw, until you mentioned them they seemed to be the only ones left out of the mix of threats to our way of life.
It's tin foil hat time..... flippancy will bring about the destruction of the human race!!!
The problem is when you look at history there are endless cases where its "yeah they overreacted" but also quite a few where its "why the bleep didnt they see that signposted?"
Honestly there were flashing lights and a siren going in hindsight.
So being an amateur fan of history I can never quite decide whether to stay calm or panic. I think Mark Twaines “History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” has a lot going for it. The problem is guessing the rhyme.
The problem is guessing the rhyme.
Yup, and I'm guessing that Putin isn't sitting in the Kremlin thinking to himself "well the special military operation in Ukraine has gone so well that as soon as it is all buttoned up I think I'll attack and invade NATO"
What if there’s nobody left to write the history books because the few who remain are busy fighting each other to the death for the last tin of corned beef in a scorched apocalyptic wasteland?
my money is on binners if there's a fight to the death for a tin of corned beef
Seems unlikely TBH. It won't stop journalists whipping everyone into frenzy Brass Eye style over conflicts in thousands of miles away desert countries with oil.
I wouldn't be. There is no chance of Israel attacking a European country and Russia has been spending the last three years or so proving to everyone just how much they struggle militarily against a relatively weak country on their doorstep.
Well exactly. It's not easy to conquer, then control large land masses, where the populace resist any form of invasion and subsequent occupation. Not to mention invading an island country on the edge of a continent.
If nukes started getting chucked about between the major powers then we'd all be up shit creek!
The Iran thing could get very messy and involve British forces further down the line but I doubt it will go beyond the region.
This narrative of the world being more dangerous than ever seems a bit odd given I can't remember a time when there wasn't any conflict including genocide.
Everyone needs to calm the **** down. I have residual reserve liability and have no intention of seeing what it's all about.
the so-called 'sensible' states in Europe spending 100s of billions on weapons and armaments
Out of interest, do you think they should be doing otherwise?
To be flippant over the mass murder of innocents and environmental destruction you are surely 'solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.'
To be flippant over the mass murder of innocents and environmental destruction you are surely 'solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.'
Maybe but as WWI showed with Wilhelms envy of his cousins (a factor I didnt mention above) Hobbes idea of an absolute sovereign was rather flawed. Whilst I have some sympathy with his reaction to the wars of the three kingdoms his conclusions are problematic.
This narrative of the world being more dangerous than ever seems a bit odd given I can't remember a time when there wasn't any conflict including genocide
If you lived through the mid-80’s and had just watched Threads then you basically lived in fear that you were going to die in a massive nuclear strike any time in the next 5 minutes anyway.
Whilst I have some sympathy with his reaction to the wars of the three kingdoms his conclusions are problematic.
But wasn't that just a story by Tolkien ?
What if there’s nobody left to write the history books because the few who remain are busy fighting each other to the death for the last tin of corned beef in a scorched apocalyptic wasteland?
Clearly a delusional optimist. I would've used 'last tin of dog food' in that context.
Threads then you basically lived in fear that you were going to die in a massive nuclear strike any time in the next 5 minutes anyway
It wasn't so much that. There wasn't exactly a shortage of conventional wars going on around the globe.
Speaking of genocide the Tamils were pretty much wiped out in Sri Lanka and the post colonial Asia countries had a bit of a penchant for genocide. Not to mention the never ending turmoil of African nations and closer to home ethic cleansing in Bosnia. Obviously it's not a competition or trivial matter! Homo sapiens have a long history of being unreasonable and generally unpleasant to each other. I can't see it stopping anytime soon, bang some heads together everyone just pack it in like!
I tell my lad it's an asteroid hitting earth scenario. A big steroid. No point in worrying about it as you can't change the outcome and will just have a rubbish life in the meantime, terrified over something that may never happen. In our lifetime anyway.
All that being said I suspect I will live long enough to see a nuke or a dirty bomb being used. Will it trigger WW3 though? Bloody hard to say.
Want something to put all this into perspective? Read up on Gamma-ray bursts, they are big enough to destroy any life in a large part of an entire galaxy. Some even think it's why we have never had contact from an alien race. They aren't around long enough to make contact.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma-ray_burst?hl=en-GB
WWIII? Nahhh ... not going to happen soon. Current world conflicts are some over hyped destruction. (someone please press the buttonnn...) There are still a long way to go before it happens but may happen in my life time, say 25 - 30 years from now. Hopefully, I will be able to see the mushroom clouds somewhere in my lifetime. Not bothered really if I get vaporise or turn into dust shadow but I will definitely have my cup of coffee while watching it happens, if I am still around that is.
Nobody will come out winner but certainly one side or most will suffer in the aftermath, but that will be too late because now they realise they could have simply not get involved.
I wouldn't be. There is no chance of Israel attacking a European country and Russia has been spending the last three years or so proving to everyone just how much they struggle militarily against a relatively weak country on their doorstep. Just like the puppet master now controlling the narrative of the West.
Israel doesn't need to attack any European country, they just command them to do the job for them. Israel is also trying to establish themselves as the dominant force in the world, indirectly, via their "alliance" (they only need to control their leaders and the rest will fall in place). A very intelligent and energy efficient approach.
Russia has no interest in Europe apart from fending them off as they get closer to them but the puppet master wants Russia to submit.
No invading army is going to attack Western Europe and even if they did why would existing defence assets not be sufficient to deal with it? The threat to Western Europe now seems smaller than at anytime since the end of the cold war, so other than to perhaps deal with the issue of less defence commitment to Europe from the United States I can't see a justification for increased spending.
Nobody wants Western Europe even Russia. What for? It is just going to be an administrative nightmare.
The only threat to Western Europe is their "own" creation by letting themselves rule indirectly by the puppet master, who indirectly command the strongest Western nation (US) and in turn with US indirectly pressuring Western Europe to fall in line to do their deeds.
Any sort of "expansion" from Middle East will stop at Turkey because they have something in common. Beyond Turkey the similarity ends with belief, religion or culture.
I wouldn't be. There is no chance of Israel attacking a European country and Russia has been spending the last three years or so proving to everyone just how much they struggle militarily against a relatively weak country on their doorstep. Just like the puppet master now controlling the narrative of the West.
For clarity I did not write that last sentence falsely attributed to me.
I wouldn't be. There is no chance of Israel attacking a European country and Russia has been spending the last three years or so proving to everyone just how much they struggle militarily against a relatively weak country on their doorstep. Just like the puppet master now controlling the narrative of the West.
My bad, Ernie. I was arranging the texts from the quotes and accidentally added my text to the quote. Not intentionally. I am still trying to get use to the new quoting format on the new forum.
That sentence should appear in my following response last sentence.
Russia has no interest in Europe apart from fending them off as they get closer to them but the puppet master wants Russia to submit. Just like the puppet master now controlling the narrative of the West.
Are you also being controlled by the puppet master, Chew?
chewkw
Israel is also trying to establish themselves as the dominant force in the world
I'm really not seeing Israel want to be, or being able to be, the dominant world power. It might want many thing and not be too bothered how it obtains them but that isn't one of them imo.
Russia has no interest in Europe apart from fending them off as they get closer to them but the puppet master wants Russia to submit.
This is well trodden ground but... NATO /Europe has zero interest in invading Russia. Ironically Russia has been invaded by Ukraine *after* Putin tried to annex the entire country and dispose of it's democratically elected government. There's a moral in there somewhere. If Putin removed his troops tomorrow from Ukraine the war would end. Simple as that, Putin simply doesn't want the war to end.
Russia is not the victim here, to say it is, is bizarre at best chew.
Oh, sorry to go off topic all, too! 😁
I'm really not seeing Israel want to be, or being able to be, the dominant world power. It might want many thing and not be too bothered how it obtains them but that isn't one of them imo.
They already have. Notice US, UK and Western Europe sprint into action when they called for "help"? I mean command the West. I didn't see anyone sprinting into action to help those decimated by them.
This is well trodden ground but... NATO /Europe has zero interest in invading Russia. Ironically Russia has been invaded by Ukraine *after* Putin tried to annex the entire country and dispose of it's democratically elected government. There's a moral in there somewhere. If Putin removed his troops tomorrow from Ukraine the war would end. Simple as that, Putin simply doesn't want the war to end.
Russia is not the victim here, to say it is, is bizarre at best chew.
Nahhh ... that horse has long bolted. No point revisiting those views, been there, seen it, let it be. Moral? That only works with the victor and not the loser. NATO etc will only come to their senses when they are defeated by force, just as they did to others. It will be a long war and probably will last another 7 years. A long war will not benefit Russia but will make Ukraine into a non-functional state. Their population gene pool will be decimated when all their young ones perish in the war. When Ukraine wakes up one day they will understand that they have been played.
No, Russia is not the victim, but they are also not the aggressor. They just want to push back the frontier.
The true victim is Ukraine being sold the "rich man" narrative by the gangs of puppet masters.
----------------------
Anyway, we live in a world control by the puppet master (and their gangs) but the turning point has started slowly, painfully slow.
I know I live in a puppet world with no rest and constantly feeding the puppet master with a slow grind like most ( but the rest of the world is slowly waking up now).
the so-called 'sensible' states in Europe spending 100s of billions on weapons and armaments
Out of interest, do you think they should be doing otherwise?
Declare yourself neutral and let everyone else spend on your defence.
Are the coalition of the "unwilling" the sensible ones? The European Commission hasn't signalled a message of great unity on this, "Please feel free to spend your own money, we'll loan you some if you need it"
ReArm Europe Plan/ Readiness 2030: the plan to finance EU defence
€800 billion: amount Member States aim to mobilise under the ReArm Europe Plan/ Readiness 2030 to finance a massive ramp-up of defence spending https://commission.europa.eu/topics/defence/future-european-defence_en
Any sort of "expansion" from Middle East will stop at Turkey because they have something in common. Beyond Turkey the similarity ends with belief, religion or culture.
There's always the possibility that Turkiye could wade in to protect its interests in Syria. President Erdogan isn't a fan of Israel's actions in Gaza either
A big steroid. No point in worrying about it as you can't change the outcome and will just have a rubbish life in the meantime
It's just "roid rage"
