I don’t really remember the world feeling this unsafe in my adult life,
The Cold War was much scarier. Doesn't mean that you shouldn't worry about now, but this is pretty much a case of normal service resuming.
but this is pretty much a case of normal service resuming
In terms of just another war in the middle east?
Have we had a stable period in the last 30 years? Maybe the late 90's before 9/11...
The Cold War was much scarier.
I remember growing up in the 80's and everyone kind of taking it as read that it was when, not if, we'd all perish by either being vaporised in a flaming nuclear wind or die a slow lingering death of radiation poisoning on the remains of a scorched planet.
With hindsight the general press and government coverage of the whole thing was pretty hysterical, but there was a general feeling that armageddon was only a potential mistake away.
It seems mental now that the government would actually put out literature on what to do in the event of a nuclear war. Other than die, obviously (fat chance of that by hiding under the kitchen table!). 😳
In terms of just another war in the middle east?
The middle east just seems to me like Europe was during the early part of the 20th century. Loads of competing powers, a lot with colonial ambitions and led by power-crazed nutters with a penchant for invading their neighbours, all absolutely itching to get stuck into each other.
Maybe instead of having these endless proxy wars they should actually get properly stuck into each other and have a full on ding dong. With tens of millions dead they might wind their bloody necks in a bit? The lunatics!
The Middle East has been in a constant flux for centuries, religion has a lot to answer for, Yemen has been in a civil war for over a decade due to this, Iran has played a proxy war in there as well as Gaza, Syria and Palestine, and previous in Iraq and so on, Israel were progressing before October, it actually looked like in a few years the right wingers might actually be pushed out, but again, you get the thought that other 'actors' wanted a different outcome, and then a huge terrorist attack has lit the whole place up again, and the benefactors are those on both sides you wanted to go extinct.
Hopefully it calms down a bit, you can almost see the steps in escalation and what could set it off further, the likes of the Houthis and Hamas are just pawns in the big game going on, and as always, civilians are the ones who suffer the most.
Nuclear weapons don’t scare me at all. I’ve seen that Harrison Ford documentary and I reckon I could fit the whole family in a chest freezer. Combined with the number of hours I’ve put in to Fallout 3 and Pft! Nuclear.
With hindsight the general press and government coverage of the whole thing was pretty hysterical, but there was a general feeling that armageddon was only a potential mistake away.
It wasn't hysterical. The Cold War really was scary, basically 15 minutes from one mistake leading to incineration. Things now are a bit tense, but the Cold War was much worse.
but there was a general feeling that armageddon was only a potential mistake away.
Abel Archer was arguably pretty close: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83
I remember growing up in the 80’s and everyone kind of taking it as read that it was when, not if, we’d all perish by either being vaporised in a flaming nuclear wind or die a slow lingering death of radiation poisoning on the remains of a scorched planet.
Very much this. I'm concerned about the current crises, but survived worse.
Warsi is absolutely correct - we, and the US, had the financial and military influence to rein in the Israelis, and chose not to do so. We have condoned the kind of war crimes that we have condemned Putin for, and lost all right to claim moral superiority.
It's maybe a conspiracy wormhole, but given that the Israelis seem to have had some warnings of the Hamas atrocity, it suited their current government to let attention move on from their internal problems.
Anyway, who is MrsBinners betting on for WWIII? That will decide how worried I am.
I doubt the concept of mass extermination by nuke is going to happen anytime soon because of the moral stance. Any country that uses nuke first will be completely isolated even when the winner(s) set the rules. However, skirmishers are inevitable particularly in the drone warfare.
That’s why Taiwan is so concerning.
There will be no war between China and Taiwan but there will be rockets dropping on each others, certainly No nuke. China will be on suicide mission if they try to invade Taiwan in the next 30 years. As the Chinese saying goes "打狗看主人" (check the owner out before punishing the dog), therefore the likelihood of starting a war is simply too costly for China even if they can win. A war with Taiwan can only derail their great plan of influencing the region. They have time on their side and Chairman Xi is not those people that will have sudden urge or emotional upheaval. However, they can put a strangle hold on Taiwan economically and would probably end up "buying" Taiwan without having to go to war. However, if China were to "attack", in order to make the people fatigue, then the most likely ways of attack is using drones or rockets. You know like creating sleepless night.
The Middle East has been in a constant flux for centuries, religion has a lot to answer for
Not really, relatively speaking the Middle East had over 500 years of stability and religious tolerance, where Muslims, Christians, and Jews, lived in peace.
In contrast Europe during the same period was pretty much in a constant state of war, often over religion, and of course Jews were routinely expelled and murdered by Europeans right up until 80 years ago.
What changed in the Middle East was European interference a hundred years ago, primarily from Britian and France.
then the most likely ways of attack is using drones or rockets.
Nope. Probably more like political will, with China sponsoring in the same way the US does and the UK used to do.
The right candidate gets into power, and reunification becomes the goal.
Have we had a stable period in the last 30 years? Maybe the late 90’s before 9/11…
The early 1990s were being billed as “the end of history”: since the western liberal democracy had won, nothing much would happen in the world from then on.
Abel Archer was arguably pretty close: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83/blockquote >Very much so. The German drama Deutschland 83 is largely a fictionalised account of this event, and hits home with how lucky we were that the east did not launch a nuclear attack.
Nope. Probably more like political will, with China sponsoring in the same way the US does and the UK used to do.
Agreed. That's why I used the term "buy" in a political sense i.e. using money politics to buy votes.
So it turns out that Joe Biden violated Article 1 of the US Constitution and that he did not have the legal power to order today's military strikes.
https://news.yahoo.com/unacceptable-violation-constitution-democrats-slam-161509499.html
"These airstrikes have NOT been authorized by Congress. The Constitution is clear: Congress has the sole authority to authorize military involvement in overseas conflicts," Rep. Val Hoyle, D-Ore., added. "Every president must first come to Congress and ask for military authorization, regardless of party."
How does a US President get away with ignoring the US Constitution and acting illegally?
Northern Ireland
Bosnia
Macedonia
Kosovo
Iraq
Afghanistan
Sierra Leone
Syria
Libya
All against the backdrop of an internal terrorism threat and foreign activity on UK soil.
All in a 24 year span. That's just the conflicts I have had either a direct involvement in a deployed role or supporting/facilitating deployment for others.
That's not including the conflicts where the military wasn't involved, wider in Africa, Chechnya, the ongoing border clashes around Kashmir, Israel/Palestine, Piracy upturn, etc.
I'd offer that undermines the 'stable' comment if I'm honest.
Not saying WW3 is imminent, just humans like a good dust-up and thus we'll always be living with serious conflict of one form or another.
One thing to remember about USA isolationism under Trump. Just as Trump is isolationist, so was Dubya Bush for about 7.5 months. 'Fortress America' and all that ballyx.
He was forced to change his tune radically on the morning of 11th September 2001.
How does a US President get away with ignoring the US Constitution and acting illegally?
Assuming that Val Hoyle is correct in their interpretation (I don't know), it's because the strikes against the Houthis are seen as self-defence of US and UK nationals, shipping, economic and commercial interests.
Arguably, the war between Israel and Palestine is one issue, the Houthi war against "western" shipping is a separate issue. The Houthi's link the two issues, the US and UK don't agree with them.
The difficulty is that the Houthis had been warned several times to leave shipping alone, they didn't and so action was taken. There are other navies in the Red Sea, the two issues would have been more separate if India and France, for example, had taken action.
Not saying WW3 is imminent, just humans like a good dust-up and thus we’ll always be living with serious conflict of one form or another.
+1
This won't develop more because of the US/UK airstrikes, the Houthis had already decided to attack "western" interests.
Saudi Arabia will be happy that US/UK has struck the Houthis because it saves them the effort; there's been conflict between them since 2015
It all seems to be doing a fine job of keeping us, the west, in a state of pending recession.
It's a constant state and usually springs from war, e.g. the 1970s was a bad period. Compare this article to the present day https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/mar/03/1970s-oil-price-shock
President Xi has his hands full. He's currently purging his military
Just as Trump is isolationist, so was Dubya Bush for about 7.5 months.
No he wasn't. George W Bush and his administration was totally committed to the Project for the New American Century.
In fact of the 25 individuals who signed PNAC's founding statement of principles ten, including Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz went on to serve in George W Bush's adminstration.
The PNAC was most definitely not isolationist. In fact it was the complete opposite - at the very heart of its aims was global "full-spectrum dominance"
it’s because the strikes against the Houthis are seen as self-defence of US and UK nationals, shipping, economic and commercial interests.
That definition would easily cover all US military action ever taken. The claim that Joe Biden acted unconstitutionally by not seeking congressional approval is being made by Democratic politicians as well as Republicans.
On a side note the strikes against Houthis attacks are likely to have been totally ineffective and more likely counterproductive.
The strikes will have been obviously anticipated and the Houthis missiles and drones securely hidden away. The Houthis rebels have welcomed the air strikes saying that they had felt bad that the Palestinians were being targeted but not them. And apparently Yemeni citizens are rallying behind the Houthis rebels hailing them as heros.
This will probably represent yet another Western miscalculation designed primarily to satisfy domestic Western political considerations.
I have no idea how authentic this is but if it is authentic it's quite interesting
https://www.instagram.com/nowinpalestine/reel/C2ASO2juKXN/
The claim that Joe Biden acted unconstitutionally by not seeking congressional approval is being made by Democratic politicians as well as Republicans.
Well that settles it then!
I am not sure if it answers the question but it does seem to suggest that it goes beyond simply "shipping, economic and commercial interests" considerations.
On a side note the strikes against Houthis attacks are likely to have been totally ineffective and more likely counterproductive.
I couldn't agree more. Bombing and missiles in isolation is a particularly crude and blunt tool, but look what happens when you take ground forces in.
Equally you can't let a rebel band deny the Bab-al-Mandeb. 30% of global container shipping transits the strait
ernielynchFull Member
I have no idea how authentic this is but if it is authentic it’s quite interesting
C4 news covered it tonight, along with having having Eylon levy (Israeli government gobshite) on to speak regarding the drone strikes on journalists, Krishnan grilled him over the direct targeting of journalists and Eylon muttered the usual response of "terrorists"
We have reached the point of Israel turning over stones and pointing at woodlice whilst shouting "terrorist"
Eylon Levy
I turned off at that point. I can’t stand that guy. He makes me physically sick.
Eylon Levy is exceptionally hard to stomach, but what I found hugely encouraging was the fact that when repeatedly questioned concerning South Africa's allegations of genocide all he could do was to talk about Hamas.
Whatever Hamas might have done, or not done, is completely irrelevant to whether an army is permitted to commit genocide against a people.
There was in effect no denial in that interview, just an attempt to justify.
The whole point of the charge of genocide is that it is never justifiable, whatever the circumstances.
The whole point of the charge of genocide is that it is never justifiable, whatever the circumstances.
Louder for those at the back!
Eylon levy (Israeli government gobshite)
He's a ****.
Eylon Levy is exceptionally hard to stomach
Its his attitude. The disbelief he portrays that anyone dare question what israel is doing or how they are going about it.
The use of language and rhetoric is interesting too "Terror dungeons" used time and time again.
Meh can't be arsed.
It's unfair to blame Starmer for anything, he just follows the Tories and the US.
Houthi rebels have attacked shipping 27 times since November.
We’re past stirring things up…
And where is the evidence that military strikes will stop them?
Demanding that Israel stops its current slaughter of innocent civilians* is more likely to bring peace and stability to the region.
Edit:* And of course justice for the Palestinian people.
Equally you can’t let a rebel band deny the Bab-al-Mandeb. 30% of global container shipping transits the strait
So one might expect a combined response from more than one country and its lapdog. I get that most don't have the option of a handy aircraft carrier but if the UK can manage it, so could a few others. I guess other countries aren't convinced this is the best response?
Relapsed, the 4/5 ex forces I know fit your description perfectly. 22 years a cook, a ghurka, several RE and Signaler. Don't see them going over the top. Are you one of my mates? 🙂
None of those, although my step-father (ex-RE) has never really resolved his disappointment over me not joining his beloved Corps.
I spent my entire career in a combat arm doing some interesting and fun stuff, the only 'over the top' I ever did was the odd wall or falling over my own feet pissed in a night out.
Or I'm am olympic level Walt, as insinuated by some. 😉
Either way I'm long past my sell by date and if there was a mandatory mobilisation they'd be looking at the younger lads and lasses with intact backs and knees, not grumpy old duffers like me who crack like a Transformer every time they get up off the sofa.
Meh…I’m a worrier about most things but not this. No one will push the button as they are all self serving egomaniacs and they all have far too much to lose themselves. And it they do there is nothing we can do about it anyway and we’ll all be dead fairly sharpish so why worry about it
besides, I was down Kirkcaldy high street yesterday and it resembles a post apocalyptic world already, so if by some chance I survived, I’d probably not notice much difference..
Demanding that Israel stops its current slaughter of innocent civilians* is more likely to bring peace and stability to the region.
But obviously won't as there's too many other vested interests in the region before we even start on the West.
You and the other left wingers on here are getting boring with the Israel bad, Palestinians victims routine. They're all bad, Hamas, Israel, Saudi, Houthis, Hezbollah, Syria etc. etc. All of them have escalated things at different times, all have committed war crimes, all target civilians indiscriminately. Don't know what the answer is but even if Israel is removed form the map (which is the publicly stated genocidal policy from Hamas) the shit will continue, too many nutters, too much money, too much religion.
Yes it would be good if some other world nations stepped up and did something about the Houthi's (India in particular and don't forget China has skin in the game here, they need exports to flow cheaply).
We're getting close to this thread being closed I fear....
Yes it would be good if some other world nations stepped up and did something about the Houthi’s (India in particular and don’t forget China has skin in the game here, they need exports to flow cheaply).<br /><br />
Like Saudi Arabia has?, over 25000 air strikes with 10,000 Yemenis killed with the backing and support of our RAF?, as with all in the Middle East our grubby little fingers are all over the scene such as Britain and Saudi in the 60’s overthrowing the government of Al-Badr who inherited his position from his father who ran the country purely for his own regimes needs which closely aligned with British needs. When the coup by a general in the military was successful against Al-Badr (who only held power for a few days) a new Yemeni republic was declared and forged closer ties to Nasser and the Egyptian government, Nasser was enemy #1 to the British at the time for obvious reasons (suez crisis). The Saudis became involved and backed a Yemeni royalist movement against the coup leaders with Britain backing the Saudis and installing the new royalist government that had “western/British values”
Funnily enough, the Yemeni royalists that we supported and aided back in the early 60’s are aligned with the Zaydi Shia religious sect who are aligned with the Houthis, so what began as a big old British public school circle jerk of ****ers deciding who should rule a Middle East country has come back to bite us in the arse.
A mate is married to a Yemeni and lives a few miles away, it took 5+ years for her to finally get citizenship and many ££££, her brother used to serve in the Yemeni airforce and her father was also in the military, the family still live in Yemen so I’ve absorbed quite a fair amount regarding the place over the previous 15 years.
