[Closed] Will self determination ultimately undo Alex Salmond?

If the article in today's Torygraph is to be believed

Its not.

there is no significant independence movement on the islands.

should Glasgow get a separate vote? Berwick?

They could set up an 'Arc of Prosperity' with the Falkland Islands 😀

Its not.

there is no significant independence movement on the islands.

The british govt will be encouraging the S&O isles to push for this. If the islanders decide that they want a vote, then they should absolutely get one.

Class, 2 mins after posting and TJ's there! 😀

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The biggest issue will remain the EU

They will have to go into the referendum without knowing whether or not they'll stay as an EU member, have to re-apply, take the € or stay with the £
The EU have already said they can't make a decision until after any referendum

Too many unknowns IMO - it's going to end up like a Rumsfeld speech

have a much greater portion of oil and gas revenues for themselves.

One day its going to run out.....what will happen then if they stand alone? Be a Golf resort?

Be a Golf resort?

The value of the oil and gas isn't exactly clear cut either

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-24/scots-independence-cost-may-exceed-oil-money-nationalists-claim.html

They'll fall for the Great Windpower Con...

One day its going to run out.....what will happen then if they stand alone?

They're going to put 7 wind turbines in everyone's back garden, and supply the rest of Europe with renewable energy

Oh.... and shortbread. Don't forget the shortbread exports

TandemJeremy - Member
If the article in today's Torygraph is to be believed
Its not.

there is no significant independence movement on the islands.

Ah, Sophism isn't dead, phew!!

should Glasgow get a separate vote? Berwick?

Scotland, Cornwall....?

Very convenient for Sturgeon to categorically state that the islanders are, "not a nation" (even though the SNP had previously recognised their right to decide their own future). Hmmmm......

Given that it takes less muscles to smile than it does to frown... is it possible that there is an untapped energy source here?

ha ha ha @ tsy!

They will have to go into the referendum without knowing whether or not they'll ... take the € or stay with the £

As an aside, it would of course be open to an independent Scotland to form its own currency or adopt a foreign currency that is neither the pound nor the Euro. On a practical basis, I doubt that would happen.

teamhurtmore - Member
If the article in today's Torygraph is to be believed,

And to go one better than Braveheart, the Scottish Government are [url= http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/film/disney-s-tourism-tie-up-with-scots-for-new-film-brave-1-2149295 ]promoting[/url] a Disney film

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I think we'll all have to wear government issue "see you jimmy hats" in the future

As an aside, it would of course be open to an independent Scotland to form its own currency or adopt a foreign currency that is neither the pound nor the Euro

I guess that would depend on the terms of any EU deal [possible compulsory €] - which the good folks of Scotland will be unaware of until after the referendum

International law suggests that the Orkneys and Shetlands would be treated as an enclave on the "Scottish" continental shelf and would only have mineral rights over an area some 12 miles out from their coast - i.e. an area which currently contains no oil or gas fields.

EJIL.ORG "http://www.ejil.org/pdfs/12/1/505.pdf"

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So everyone is wrong about the S&O's oil/gas entitlements then?
I don't think so.

International law suggests that the Orkneys and Shetlands would be treated as an enclave on the "Scottish" continental shelf and would only have mineral rights over an area some 12 miles out from their coast - i.e. an area which currently contains no oil or gas fields

Ah - so Scotland is actually an enclave on the UK continental shelf - it seems they're a bit stuffed.

Thanks for posting that druidh, but not sure about your conclusion. This is one person's interpretation of IL, not IL itself surely?

(page 104?)

thm - law "is" opinion 🙂

The "in my opinion" comment seems to refer to the possibility of extending the O&S rights beyond the minimum in order to safeguard some rights for them and to prevent a dispute with Norway and Denmark. Or have I read it wrong?

International law suggests that the Orkneys and Shetlands would be treated as an enclave on the "Scottish" continental shelf and would only have mineral rights over an area some 12 miles out from their coast

I wouldn't take it too seriously anyway. It's one paper written by a scottish based lawyer with more expertise in religion than in international boundaries.

I wouldn't take it too seriously anyway

konabunny - Member
Did you actually read it or just google the author's name?

I'd like to know how oil and gas will support Scotland beyond 20-30 years, to be honest...

[url= http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6233/6996725909_1229b5bca7.jp g" target="_blank">http://farm7.staticflickr.com/6233/6996725909_1229b5bca7.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
[url= http://www.flickr.com/photos/gingerfox/6996725909/ ]Production Data[/url] by [url= http://www.flickr.com/people/gingerfox/ ]Ginger F0x[/url], on Flickr

(2011 data only to June)

Kit seems to like female midriffs....... 😀

Kit seems to like female midriffs.......

You're not wrong there 😉

It's the bits above and below he's uncertain about.

You seem to need a yahoo acc to access that graph

jota - you can basically read it from my post - volumes of oil, gas, associated gas and gas condensate produced from the UK North sea from 1976 - 2011, in millions of cubic meters. The trend is downward with only around 20 years worth of production left at current rates. This assumes no significant new discoveries (highly unlikely) and no CO2 enhanced oil recovery (still too expensive).

jota - you can basically read it from my post

Not with my eyes you can't 🙂

anyway, I guess it's much the same detail as in the link I posted earlier

Not with my eyes you can't

Sorry about that 🙁 And yes, the Bloomberg report cites DECC data, from which my graph was drawn.

Well, there will be a lot of money in decommissioning oil fields, so that'll provide some income for a few years, though the work is already under way for some fields. Some fields are having their lives extended and new areas like the deep west of shetland waters are being moved into, so there is some life in oil yet, but not much.

Independance would be a disaster for Scotland and would set our 'poor man of europe' status in stone for generations.

Independance would be a disaster for Scotland and would set our 'poor man of europe' status in stone for generations.

Bollocks.

Bollocks.

I know, its scary innit!

I know, its scary innit!

I find the prospect of independence a whole lot less scary than considering what will happen to Scotland if we're still part of the Union when the oil runs out and we're beholden to a Conservative government in Westminster for handouts...

I've yet to see someone explaining the logic behind "we can't vote for independence because one day the oil will run out". Do these people still live with their mums at 30 because their worried that they might lose their job in 5 years time and not be able to pay their mortgage? I'd never appreciated we had quite so many "wee cowering timorous beasties" in our ranks.

So tell us d_j how Scotland will support itself?

I'd never appreciated we had quite so many "wee cowering timorous beasties" in our ranks.

🙂

Firstly as oil becomes more expensive it will be worth recovering more of the hard to get stuff thats there.

25 years of oil money should be enough to structure a scots economy to create the wealth the country needs

Assuming S&O don't take their 25%?

...yep and dont worry TJ, if Fergus Ewing is to be believed (?) you will also be spending this money on your own independent nuclear option to ensure "security of supply" (now that the SNP have renaged on their 100% renewable promise) 😉

...CO2 enhanced oil recovery (still too expensive).

Firstly as oil becomes more expensive it will be worth recovering more of the hard to get stuff thats there.

So we agree then. But saying that this money will be put to good use is fine, but HOW is very important. I want to know, otherwise it's still going to be a "No" vote from me. So what are the SNP's plans for shaping our economy? Financial services? Tourism? Manufacturing? Mining? CCS?

Really THM - let see a quote / link for that

Kit

Been a bit of work done on this - renewables is one area, tourism and financial services as well.

its also that being able to set economic policy to suit Scotland will help generally

Been a bit of work done on this

Published?

TandemJeremy - Member
Really THM - let see a quote / link for that

"The Scottish government has shifted away from its hardline opposition to nuclear power after the energy minister said there was a "rational case" for extending the life of Scotland's two nuclear plants. Fergus Ewing, the energy minister, told MSPs on Thursday that the Scottish National party (SNP) government was "perfectly open" to the continued use of Hunterston and Torness power stations, to ensure there was security of supply." Guardian 1 July 2011 - for starters.

Kit - some data on this on here various links but all rather nebulous

http://www.snp.org/

Teamhurtmore - SNP policy remains the same - no new nuclear power stations.

I suspect mischief making / out of context. its clear policy remains the same as do the aims.

Its not a problem TJ, we're going to move to Scotland and vote for independence. And then we'll keep our monies in an offshore account 🙂

So - we are still "too wee, too stupid, too poor"?

So - we are still "too wee, too stupid, too poor"?

Well, mebbe one of them 😀

The amount of oil left in the North Sea is decreasing. As the price goes up, it may be economic to recover it. However as new fields are found (e.g. off Ireland) the the price may not rise enough to make it economic to recover it. There are too many unknowns to be able to make any reasonable guesses about how much tax any newly Independent Scotland would be able to raise via North Sea Oil & Gas.

The labour opposition is very good at the moment in working out how to spend a mythical bankers bonus tax. I reckon that they must have spent it a good 8 or 9 times. The same applies to the Scottish North Sea oil. It appears to being used by the SNP to cover all sorts of spending, from NHS to a Sovereign Wealth Fund, many times over. Added to the fact that the actual tax take varies hugely by year.

Add to the fact that Scotland has a high proportion of it's people in Government employment and I am still not sure that the figures work out.

However all this is meaningless in terms of Independence. Scots should vote for or against Independence not on if they are going to be better off, but on if they want or don't want it.

In any case the SNP has the problem that after the referendum they just become another left wing party. If Independence is granted then one of the main battle cries of Independence will have gone. Likewise if the lose the ballot, then perhaps the whole reason for their existence will vanish!

(As an Englishman, I can't believe that S&O will leave Scotland if it became Independent.)

So - we are still "too wee, too stupid, too poor"?

Too wee. Not too stupid, Scotland is a centre of innovation in many areas. Big health problems though, and a lot of unemployment problems. Question is as people are so accustomed to not working, if the jobs are there would people take them?

I do feel Alex Salmond is in this for his own self satisfaction, for Scotland being independent for the sake of it, rather than for the benefit of the people and the country.

However all this is meaningless in terms of Independence. Scots should vote for or against Independence not on if they are going to be better off, but on if they want or don't want it.

It's a shame that bollocks isn't a renewable energ source because there's tons of it...

You could power the whole of the UK just using the STW forum.

Had a chat on the phone with my second cousin last night, who still lives up on Shetland. His take on the recent furore is that Tavish Scott is sweating buckets because the SNP seem to be gaining ground up there, and this is largely mischief making on the part of the Lib Dems. There's been a strong historic sense of loyalty to the Lib Dems due to the settlement that Jo Grimmond won for them when Sullom Voe was built, but he reckons there's a fair number of people less than impressed with old Tavish, and he pointed out that when S&O voted in the 1997 Devolution referendum, there was a clear majority in favour. It might be interesting to wait and see what the backlash is to his comments in the not too distant future...

Basically echoes what my brother says. He's lived in the Shetlands for 20+ years and wouldn't consider himself anything other than Scottish.

sure i've done this before but orkney/shetland movement anyone? not what it was by any means but a period of central-centric government will soon sort that out. course in the meantime we could vote snp because if you vote snp you get a ferry subsidy, your roads redone and your schools rebuilt. isn't that how it works?