Kind of agree Frank, although a couple of economic commentators have made the point that even during the war, SME's suffered less potential disruption than this could cause. The economy did not go into hibernation like it appears to be doing now.
I suspect the shock is going to be as big as the great depression, we're still in a period of uncertainty and look at how far the markets have tanked already - it's not my area though - but even my wife and her employer is unsure (wealth management)! They don't have much public health/biosciences understanding, I don't have much knowledge on that area apart from what I glean from my wife when she's not got her head buried in graphs on her monitors. Maybe there's a gap in the market for me and the missus lol.
That's the crux of it, very few people have the expertise to parse this event together in a holistic fashion - hence the massive uncertainty and volatility.
No, but until they know what’s expected of them, they can’t make any decent plans. Other than “closing on Friday”, there isn’t much else they can make plans around.
Well there is. Potential school could be closed temporary for something like a fire. They’d need contingency plans for events such as these, adapting these plans to fit in with a closure due to virus shouldn’t be difficult. As I say my kids school has been planning for 2 weeks for a possible closure.
Drac, schools have been planning to teach kids at home, not teaching kids at home whilst also looking after kids in school, big difference.
No, they’ve also planned for partial closure too to look after essential workers if staff numbers dropped. I’m not sure how people couldn’t see this coming especially when it’s been asked when it would happen by the public.
Anyway my earlier post should have read a big thank you to AA and his teacher colleagues for allowing to look essential workers kids. I shouldn’t type while walking I’m bad enough sat in the house.
the endless speculation, increasing signs of paranoia, uninformed comment on this thread
Well I’d say speculation and paranoia (although I’d say fear is a more appropriate description) are natural reactions give the craziness of it all. For me the release valve is in talking about it. For others it might be ignoring It, but some of us can’t do that.
As for being uninformed, what are we supposed to do? Just swallow whatever Boris tells us unquestioningly when we can see what’s happening elsewhere?
A week ago we were told letting it spread was the right way to go and that lockdowns, school closures and the rest of it was weeks away and anyone saying otherwise was spreading fear and being hysterical.
And that wouldn’t be a problem other than the fact that this viewpoint is currently resulting in many people carrying on as normal as if they’re already immune to it and endangering everyone else.
it’s not paranoia, it’s fear and worry, and as far as I can see it’s entirely justified.
They don’t have much public health/biosciences understanding, I don’t have much knowledge on that area apart from what I glean from my wife when she’s not got her head buried in graphs on her monitors. Maybe there’s a gap in the market for me and the missus lol.
Should have read "her area" - I know a little about biology. **** it, I'm off to bed now - busy day for me tomorrow.
Anyway my earlier post should have read a big thank you to AA and his teacher colleagues for allowing to look essential workers kids.
+1
Teachers are awesome and have unexpectedly found themselves on the front line of this.
Stay safe/sane yourself Drac, you're doing a valuable job.
For some laughs.
People think you're up their with the ghostbusters now Drac 😛
Although I hope you don't take selfies whilst driving.
Hahaha! That’s ace.
I have of course have never done anything like that. 😗
Back on topic, the Chinese had no domestic new cases yesterday (and I believe them). Proof that shutting down can work if done properly and that it's the quickest way to get an economy back on the rails. I just hope they don't start mixing again too soon and remain vilgilant.
Yeah just saw that, good news.
for the first time since the beginning of the outbreak, there have been 0 new cases in Wuhan and in the Hubei province, and no new and no existing suspected cases in Wuhan and in Hubei.
Proof that shutting down can work if done properly and that it’s the quickest way
Based on the Chinese....we will be back ready to enter that world for all that by end of June.
~ 4 months since the first reported cases.
Good new's with the China stats - haven't looked at the news yet but since it's relatively quiet on here nothing much is up.
That's me clocking on in the rabbit hole - have a good day folks.
the quickest way to get an economy back on the rails
You clearly haven't been looking at the Chinese economic numbers. They are grim. And when they lift the lock down to restart production, the virus will reappear.
Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months? For example, schools may have closed early for Easter and remain closed until after the Summer break but they'll surely re-open in August regardless of the containment situation. Other industries, like farming, food production, utilities will have to operate.
It is not the end of capitalism but it may may people think a bit more abut globalisation
Once this is all over in 2 years time the ongoing impact will be to the poorer in society as out will come the austerity word again and we know who that impacts and the line will be the same "it wasn't our fault that we had to spend money on Covid19 but we now have to go through 10 years of austerity to pay for it"
Chill. This epidemic is most likely all over in 6-8 months. Yes there are economic consequences, but these are secondary to the nation's health.
We can either do this by minimising the death rate and doing our bit to contribute to the overall management of the peak and rate of the epidemic....
Or we can be irresponsible and contribute to a massive death toll including our parents and friends with underlying health issues.
Important you decide if you are in
- a LOW risk household or
-a HIGH risk household
Never the twain should meet for the foreseeable.
Low risk households should have minimal health concerns. Yes you will get a flu-like illness, but you should be ok. Just follow the advice on social distancing etc to help manage the rate of infection. Once you've had it, normality will largely resume. Don't do online food shops in order to allow the high risk households access to delivery slots. Avoid close contact with your elderly relatives. But make doorstep deliveries for them. Be sensible.
High risk households need to accept that if you want to increase your chances of survival, you have to withdraw and hibernate for as long as needed. Let it pass by in the outside world. It's going to be a long haul. Do online shops, keep delivery drivers 2m away. No visitors. Stick a warning note on your door.
And everyone wash their hands.
Good luck.
Proof that shutting down can work if done properly and that it’s the quickest way to get an economy back on the rails. I just hope they don’t start mixing again too soon and remain vilgilant.
They waited 6 weeks from the first reported domestic case until they stared closures.
Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?
No, they really can't.
I can see in a few weeks folk not adhering to it as strictly as they struggle to deal with isolation. The temptation to meet up when family or friends will be great - see that crappy Hunted TV show where folk can't go without seeing mum or the dog for a fortnight.
Once this is all over in 2 years time the ongoing impact will be to the poorer in society as out will come the austerity word again and we know who that impacts and the line will be the same “it wasn’t our fault that we had to spend money on Covid19 but we now have to go through 10 years of austerity to pay for it”
I was thinking about this. As this is bigger and there has been very real damage to the jobs/businesses that keep the economy afloat I don't think that it will be possible to push austerity as the answer. In the short term at least I think there might need to be some stimulus. Borrowing and building feels more likely to create jobs and kick the economy up the arse and generate money and jobs.
But yes, it will be the poor who didn't have a safety buffer who struggle.
Well, I’ve been asked to put my annual goals and personal development plan together by next Friday, and in true pyramid fashion have been passed my managers sickenly grovelling to the boss version to align them with.
What goals for a travelling salesman during a mild Flu pandemic?
Dark humour aside, I’m shaking my head at the thought someone above me is still pushing for numbers with no apparent regard or sympathetic communication to the economic changes we are experiencing
And when they lift the lock down to restart production, the virus will reappear.
China are going to be all over any new cases like a tramp on chips. They do have prior and somewhat recent experience, with SARS, which they kept a lid on since the initial flair up, with a few isolated cases being found. In short, they know how to do a pandemic response.
Rest of world, crikey, when did we last see something like this, Spanish Flu in 1918?
scotroutes
Member
Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?
A few months? People will be tearing their hair out after a few weeks. Look at the hysteria over mentioning immunity last week. Just wait till the general public latches on the the fascism patter starting to rear it's head....
I also find it amazing the amount of people that are saying aye the economy can be fixed later on. Ermm do you not realise that economic collapse will make this a million times worse. You can't fix that, Those consequences will be very very real.
What the world is doing just now is entirely unsustainable. We can't stay in lockdown for very long.
Protecting the old and it sweeping over the population is really the only thing that can and will happen long term. If that can somehow be managed to protect the vulnerable, great, fingers crossed.
There's no vaccine coming in time. Certainly not over this first massive wave of the virus.
Least we've half a chance mind. The thought of what this will do in Africa and South America is terrifying. We're going to need a more global response to this.
Loving reading the conspiracy theories.
Please keep them coming.
In other news, my hairdresser is still open so I’m off for a hair cut later. My sailing club building is shut and all club and open meetings cancelled until the end of March (I suspect that will be extended to end of April) but the changing are open including showers... so I’m glad about getting our normally manic club back to ourselves.
#bitofflu
#madpanicensues
There are changes occurring in the economy, society, and politics of a magnitude, speed and scale across the world that have never occurred before.
Well... Yes and no. But we're British. Nowt will change. Some people will die. Most of us won't. This will pass. Then we'll simply go back to jetting off to Spain on our hols, sitting in nose to tail traffic to drive to the office, going out and getting pissed at the local and having fights outside the kebab house, while buying Asparagus flown in from Kenya and eating bacon butties from intensively reared Danish porkers.
As a nation we shall collectively never speak of this again and will tut and roll our eyes should anyone be crass enough to mention it.
... until next time
Sorry Daz. Thats the reality 😉
For anyone thinking we can go back to normal. The banking crisis was about avoiding a collapse of the economy. In this case, the collapse feared 10 years ago has already happened. Scary stuff.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1240536143965323264?s=21
As I said earlier,
At the moment, health of the vulnerable and protecting the nhs is being prioritised over the economy.
Short term they is probably the right thing to do, given we do not know how effective the containment measures will be.
Personally, I feel that if this is continues for significant time, the cost to the economy will prove too great. This may mean that the priority swings back the other way.
Edit: and the latter is probably the balance of priority which the gov were going for when talking about herd immunity at the start of the outbreak
Keep calm and carry on do things differently.
There is no need to panic.
Giving advice about “probable” immunity via exposure, and suggesting that it is only those at risk that have the responsibility to avoid being caught up in the spread, is dangerous though. Time for everyone to help starve this virus of carriers. Don’t just selfishly carry on as normal because you [think you] are a low risk healthy lucky young buck.
In time yes. It took 30 years for the free marketeers to regain control after WWII. This could be bigger.
Not a valid comparison unless Covid19 starts a global bombing campaign against transportation and industrial infrastructure.
There is no need to panic.
This needs repeating. Its a mid Flu, just in large proportions with a global reaction we all have to bear. Twitter is now moderating negative content and inappropriate advice to calm the panic, it'd be great if a few people on here thought about others and did the same by moderating their vocabulary - perhaps STW will soon be forced to moderate as a responsible platform anyway.
I thought I suffered from anxiety but go and read the Mental Health thread for a true indication of what this kind of talk is doing to people, its not pleasant, have a thought for others.
My roady club have cancelled the Sunday club runs for the foreseeable future
Beer trading is dead, pubs are doing home delivery of cooked food and a couple of pints to use up stock
Most pubs fo not have any cash reserves at this time of year having run at a loss through jan and feb
Some will last a month or 2, then close up and post the keys through the letter box.
The brewery i work at is having a fire sale, then mothball and maybe close for good. Or, ad we are at break clauss on our lease, take that and downsize to a low cost sbr releif unit elsewhere
Time to get out of the industry probably, will be tricky times for years
Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?
I'm sure I will be seeing kids out playing before the end of the week.
Also the schools staying open for key workers: We had a count up this morning on my daughter's class's whatsapp parents group. Out of my daughter's class of 27, 20 parents are key workers. (Assuming Teachers, NHS workers, shop workers & delivery people are all key workers.) Most of the class will continue to use the school and wraparound care as normal. )
I wonder how many jobs in an economy aren't essential? Yes there will be yoga teachers and life coaches and sellers of coffee and plastic tat, but most people are selling goods or services that we actually need. I wonder if we'll discover that many jobs we consider "non-essential" are actually essential. (Telephone engineers/Vets/Electricians.)
Tomorrow is the last day of employment for both me and my partner, having resigned 3 months ago. Nice safe jobs, well paid and a good pension. Due to be flying to Australia for a new job on the 6th of April (a big career opportunity, not a lifestyle decision).
Aus have just closed their border "for at least 6 months".
Feeling rather vulnerable this morning...
Giving advice about “probable” immunity via exposure, and suggesting that it is only those at risk that have the responsibility to avoid being caught up in the spread, is dangerous though.
Any visiting of my dad's care home is done with extreme caution, I assure you. I'm simply not that worried about getting it myself, and whilst worried about how my kids will get jobs I've zero concerns about their health (great Stevextc that your kid got better a few years ago).
There will be further waves and outbreaks, with more people having at least some degree of immunity each time. Until a vaccine comes along, but that's over a year away. So herd immunity isn't a policy (that's protecting the vulnerable, health care systems and the economy, in that order), but it is what is most likely in the longer term, with or without help from vaccines. Putting all your chips on elimination is not a risk free option.
I'm struggling a bit with some of the overly negative and fearful comments on here which seem to suggest that being incredibly afraid is somehow the only logical conclusion for this set of events.
Whatever way you look at it, being fearful of things way, way beyond your control is illogical. If you genuinely believe this is the most bigly awful terrifying thing ever then it's worth reflecting on those thoughts and why they're arising in your consciousness. It certainly won't be because you've arrived at some kind of truth that isn't available to others.
If you're right, and we are all utterly screwed then spending the last few months in a state of fear is an odd thing to do. Apply the thought experiment of "Eternal return". If you were to die in some CV related riots in 6 months time, but your life would endlessly repeat - would you be happy with how you spent this part of your life?
If you're wrong, well it goes without saying that you've harmed yourself and potentially others around you for nothing.
Surely any pub/restaurant/cafe can apply for the £25k GRANT (free money) from govt to pay staff/suppliers?
Its a mid Flu, just in large proportions with a global reaction we all have to bear. Twitter is now moderating negative content and inappropriate advice to calm the panic, it’d be great if a few people on here thought about others and did the same by moderating their vocabulary – perhaps STW will soon be forced to moderate as a responsible platform anyway.
Can we stop calling it a mild flu though? It really isn't for a large slice of the UK population, and while we don't need to panic, and be careful what we write, we also need to avoid vocabulary that potentially trivialises it.
I wonder how many jobs in an economy aren’t essential?
I'm a graphic designer. We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be. We settled on 'an irrelevance of graphic designers' 😀
Can we stop calling it a mild flu though?
A bit of a sniffle?
A man-cold?
Question for anyone with medical knowledge. Why Is having cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure such a risk factor when you get cornona virus?
I assume for the former if you can't breath properly it puts more stress on your heart to pump oxygen which o may not be able to cope with? Why would that be affected by high blood pressure If you are otherwise fit and healthy?
Sorry to hear that cakeandcheese - basically 'travel' as we know it is off for the foreseeable future.
We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be.
The Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B
Feel for you cakeandcheese.
This is why temporary protection for households needs to go well beyond just helping companies.
@dantsw13 - That won't last long to be honest, unless this is jsut a 1 month shut down they will be in trouble even with a grant. Then you have the fact taht a lot of places are seasonal. They will have been expecting to start making moeny at east and then through the summer. If this goes on for 3-4 months that a substantial part of the profit-making time of year
needs adapting, slightly...
Cheers guys - the timing is rather unfortunate!
New boss has told me that they'll support remote working, but how far that goodwill can stretch is another matter.
Does anyone believe that even the current measures are sustainable for more than a few months?
Nope.
I think we're realistically looking at:
Fast tracking anything that relieves symptoms and can knock down the peak ICU demand.
Mega fast track of vaccine following trials.
The fastest of fast tracking possible for point-of-use test kits.
Reduction of 7 day individual and/or 14 day family quarantines based on an 'all clear' from testing.
When / if a vaccine arrives it'll be back to business as usual. In a massive going-out-on-a-limb speculation, I think widespread availability of test kits would put us pretty close to business as usual.
Right now the big deal is that we don't 100% know who really has it - unless they are in hospital.
Did anyone else listen to The Moral Maze last night? Estimates given of 50,000 fewer deaths in Wuhan since the outbreak due to the factories closing and the massive reduction in pollution. Even if those figures are out by a factor of 10 more people are alive in Wuhan today than would have been without the virus.
At the end of this we've got to take a good hard look at ourselves and just realise how many people are paying for our lifestyles with their lives. Are we any better than those whose lifestyles relied on the slave trade?
Keep calm and carry on do things differently.
There is no need to panic.
Giving advice about “probable” immunity via exposure, and suggesting that it is only those at risk that have the responsibility to avoid being caught up in the spread, is dangerous though. Time for everyone to help starve this virus of carriers. Don’t just selfishly carry on as normal because you [think you] are a low risk healthy lucky young buck.
Precisely.