New boss has told me that they’ll support remote working, but how far that goodwill can stretch is another matter.
From what my brother (lives near Sydney) says Aus is pretty close to lockdown too, which presumably means you won't be the only worker in the company doing WFH. Not ideal, of course, but a slight silver lining!
I’m a graphic designer. We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be. We settled on ‘an irrelevance of graphic designers’
A Crayolevance?
No the OAPs get first dibs on shopping, do you think they will clear the shelves leaving tins of pineapple chunks in revenge for the cr4p they get at Harvest Festival?
Well you'll have no chance of getting any Werthers Originals
I’m sure I will be seeing kids out playing before the end of the week.
The chance of transmission if they are not touching each other or things the others have touched in minimal.
John
(great Stevextc that your kid got better a few years ago).
Yep.... but he would have died (several times without being in ICU)
There will be further waves and outbreaks, with more people having at least some degree of immunity each time. Until a vaccine comes along, but that’s over a year away. So herd immunity isn’t a policy (that’s protecting the vulnerable, health care systems and the economy, in that order), but it is what is most likely in the longer term, with or without help from vaccines. Putting all your chips on elimination is not a risk free option.
There are already (if you believe manufacturers) or will be test kits... this in itself will make a HUGE difference if they are rolled out
Spanish Flu burned itself out... and social distancing where it was adopted was effective
A vaccine may be imminent (or not)
tomd
If you’re right, and we are all utterly screwed then spending the last few months in a state of fear is an odd thing to do
Getting enough people to take it seriously is important though.
It's not a very tough virus and in it's current form VERY rarely transmitted except through touch.
Washing hands is still a effective barrier... learning not to put them anywhere near your nose/mouth/eyes is probably harder, especially for younger kids. [I shaved because I know I tend to twiddle and meant to be wearing a wrist brace for fracture but I remove that before going into the supermarket etc. then clean my hands before putting it back on]
With current estimates of infection rate it's a fairly simple thing to ask yourself "how many people touched that before me and since it was disinfected" and then go wash your hands.
From what the WHO have said at least it would be reasonably easy to control if people just washed their hands but to do that they need to realise perhaps that by not doing so someone (maybe not them but someone) will likely die.
Got one of these through the door last night from Lauren who lives in the next street...
Don't think Lauren was expecting the "friendly phone call" she got.
"Hi, Lauren.....What are you wearing?"
"A face mask".....click
Fast tracking anything that relieves symptoms and can knock down the peak ICU demand.
Mega fast track of vaccine following trials.
The fastest of fast tracking possible for point-of-use test kits.
There's no point in accelerating testing or vaccines if it doesn't work adequately. Most Point of Care tests for Flu (a common thing to get in the US, but not the UK) are <80% accurate. So if they say you are negative you have a 1:5 chance of being positive (and typically not much better for specificity either so 1:5 positives may not be true positives). Serology tests (confirming you have an immune response, and likely immunity) may be a totally different story - but currently there aren't even lab tests for that available and its not trivial to develop.
Vaccines are a similar story - if you don't know how effective it is, the modelling for how many people need it to get the degree of immunity you need to relax is educated guesswork at best.
If these treatments being suggested to have some effect are proven so scale up, that has a huge benefit for managing the peak.
Taking it seriously, applying social distancing and washing your hands are possible without being fearful, that's just applying good practice well within your control. High levels of fear are not a great motivator for sustainable behavioural change. Once you've exhausted all practical measures and start using it as a soap box for whatever nihilistic or political outlook you have then that's going to far.
perchypanther
Member
Got one of these through the door last night from Lauren who lives in the next street…Don’t think Lauren was expecting the “friendly phone call” she got.
“Hi, Lauren…..What are you wearing?”
“A face mask”…..click
Haha, on a serious note, stuck a note through the neighbours doors last night saying if you need anything, shopping etc picked up, just shout. A lot of old folks in this close. So just checking up.
Didn't expect the one that did answer though. Woman down stairs, single mum with 2 weans. Has been self isolating with the both of them since the weekend. She's basically shutting herself off as she's on drugs that suppress her immune system. Think they are in for the long hall. Said she was in tears getting the note. I don't think they are getting much contact at all.
Hopefully she will reach out for help if she needs it going forward. Said she might well.
But does just show you you don't really know what's happening around you. So defo keep an eye on folks. A wee note could do the world to people's spirits.
We were discussing what the collective noun for a group of us would be.
The Golgafrinchan Ark Fleet Ship B
You tell me what colour the face masks should be then!
I'm currently enjoying all the radio ads for hotels events etc that are completely pointless and out of context now
Most Point of Care tests for Flu (a common thing to get in the US, but not the UK) are <80% accurate.
Granted. But. It's a lot better than "not having a clue" surely?
Fast tracking anything that relieves symptoms and can knock down the peak ICU demand.
Doing this...
Nicely done seosamh77 !
Every day hero.
I did the elderly neighbours, but you’re right, there will be all sorts of cases of households without elderly people that could use a friendly offer of help.
Remember everyone. There is no need to panic. Keep calm. But there is every need to change how we act. Don’t just ‘carry on’ as usual. Offer any help you can. Keep a safe distance (for the sake of others, not yourself).
/Start Rant
Eldest sister, was at Centre Parcs Sherwood this weekend gone. Ostensibly mixing with some 4,000 strangers from all over the UK in what is effectively a large greenhouse, for four days, in the middle of a global pandemic of a contagious virus particularly dangerous to the over 70s.
She comes home Monday, visits 90yo Dad (who is on warfarin/stroke recovery/booked for biopsy for skin "lesion", possibly cancer, on the 26th March) that day and she's now in bed with "symptoms" as of Tuesday.
Two confirmed cases from the same weekend at that CP.
Have told my Dad to shout if he feels at all unwell.
I'm at a loss with WTAF she was thinking. The mind truly boggles if she/people like her can't see the risk. As a minimum, you'd wait till the weekend to see if anything came to be before visiting him.
/End rant
Couldn't sensible precautions just be summarised, as with so many things in life, with the same instruction?
...
Don't be a dick
I’m at a loss with WTAF she was thinking. The mind truly boggles if she/people like her can’t see the risk. As a minimum, you’d wait till the weekend to see if anything came to be before visiting him.
I’ve just had a conversation with a friend who was doing the full on family Mother’s Day, despite his elderly mother being immune system compromised due to recent treatment. Took a few calls (no shouting) to convince him to at least wait ‘till his kids had been isolated form their school friends for a while first. The advice is not getting through to people, and that is mostly because last week’s government ‘message’ has not been undone by this week’s actions.
Next door to me is a retired couple who don't keep particularly well.
We've texted them to let them know we are here to help out if needed. We are helping them out with groceries and other bits and pieces.
I don't think we need to be overly alarmist about what we are facing, but we do need to pull together and look out for people where we can. Helping out a neighbour is hardly heroic compared to some of the sacrifices people are making, but if everyone does a little then we will all be in a better place.
Tricky to pull together when the countries been split for 3+ yrs innit.
Africa deosn't have much to worry about. Given the age demographic:
https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure
And the fact they aleady have much worse epidemics running in the background for example Malaria.
The ECB will just print as much money as is needed to press pause for a while. Germany is one of the most affected countries, they won't be dragging their feet this time.
It's all manageable, anti-viral treatments initially and then a vaccin. It just needs good management over the next six months... anyone but Trump or Boris.
/Start Rant
Don't get me started. Has it occured to those accusing some of us of spreading panic that it may actually be the other way round? It's genuinely concerning to see everyone carrying on as normal. I've been distancing since last Tuesday when I got a cold. Apparently I'm over-reacting and have been told by many normally sensible people that 'life has to go on', 'it's just flu', 'we don't need to do anything yet because it's not compulsory' and 'you only need to distance if you have symptoms'.
If it's done anything though I've now got the hygiene thing down to an artform if I venture outside. I think I've even managed to crack the not touching your face thing until I've had a chance to wash my hands. Not sure others have, I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
???????????
Tricky to pull together when the countries been split for 3+ yrs innit
To be honest I think most people will happily put all that behind them and pull together.
(But it is slightly worrying that parliament is half empty already and everyone's eye is off the Brexit ball while a deadline still approaches fast)
I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
It's tricky - if you are further away, you'll look smaller, so she'll assume you are a child and not authorise your booze.
It’s all manageable, anti-viral treatments initially and then a vaccin. It just needs good management over the next six months
Agree but it will more likely be a year rather than 6 months mainly due to teh numbers of people involved. For example, be great to have an anti body blood test avaiable in 4 weeks time but actually do the blood tests on millions of people is another thing.
I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
It’s tricky – if you are further away, you’ll look smaller, so she’ll assume you are a child and not authorise your booze.
Best reply EVER !! ^^^^ 😀 😀
If it’s done anything though I’ve now got the hygiene thing down to an artform if I venture outside.
Cobblers! When I saw you on Saturday, you and your nackered new bike were caked in filth! As you strolled around the quite large gathering we were at
Super-spreader!!!! 😛
my wife now has the enviable task of ringing round nursery parents asking them if they could pay their bill even though the nursery is shut :/ Can't see this ending well.
the government is going to have to do more to ensure cash flow at a worker level.
We all got Grippe A H1N1 vaccinated fairly smoothly in 2009/2010. We all got a convocation depending on our priority. A letter arrived in the post with a date, time and place.
Whilst I get that generally you have to cater for the average moron when giving national advise, it is frustrating when I wandered over to the shop to pick up some essentials last night, to see the town pretty much dead, apart from Prezzo, which was stuffed full, of olds.
But also:
I’m struggling a bit with some of the overly negative and fearful comments on here which seem to suggest that being incredibly afraid is somehow the only logical conclusion for this set of events
But also this. The doom mongering mentalists on here are as bad as the above Prezzo morons. i'm astounded some people can manage to function as fully fledged adults in some cases. Depressing.
But it is slightly worrying that parliament is half empty already and everyone’s eye is off the Brexit ball while a deadline still approaches fast)
And the PM refused to answer questions on it, saying only that there was legislation in place that he had no intention of changing.
Cobblers!
You may not have noticed though that I didn't shake anyone's hand and quietly kept my distance when talking to anyone. That's the only time I've been out other than to go to the shops though. (and it was definitely a head cold I had last week, not CV)
Well if I get it, I know who I'll be holding responsible
quietly kept my distance when talking to anyone
Schoolboy error there.
Surely the further away you stand, the louder you need to talk?
I will now never be able to read any of Daz’s posts without having that mental image of what he looks like.
I preferred the old, pre-apocalypse Daz..
While that's all well and good GrahamS, it does looks like the US has dispensed with all the dithering and is prepared to do just about anything going forward to look after it's people.
Just like Boris said he was going to do a few days ago.
I got a very funny look from the shop assistant in Morrisons last night when I stepped away from her when she was verifying my age at the auto-checkout.
It’s tricky – if you are further away, you’ll look smaller, so she’ll assume you are a child and not authorise your booze.
This deserves greater publicity ^^
Top work.
🤪
I too am getting sick and tired of the Doom Slayers, wish they’d all wallow in another pit somewhere.
Thankfully after getting rid of a lot of mass speculation and idiot speak, we now seem to all understand the fundamentals of how to manage yourself and those around you.
All it needed was a clear head and clear communication.
my wife now has the enviable task of ringing round nursery parents asking them if they could pay their bill even though the nursery is shut :/ Can’t see this ending well.
Our nursery sent out a similar email yesterday, depressingly predictable reactions on FB.
'Their insurance should cover it!' - Already debunked in numerous headlines recently
'Why should we pay if our kids aren't in nursery??' - So that there's still a nursery in 3 months time?
'I can't afford to stay home and look after my child while also paying nursery fees' - The letter made it quite clear, numerous times, that if your income is affected, they will review their fees.
I think the most corrosive aspect of social media is that you go away thinking that majority of the population are pig-thick cretins. I just have to hope there is a silent majority of reasonable, considerate people who actually read things and just think occasionally.
Spanish Flu burned itself out… and social distancing where it was adopted was effective
re "burned itself out" wikki says (why paraphrase when you can quote?):
After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly – almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave.[49] In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost disappeared from the city. One explanation for the rapid decline in the lethality of the disease is that doctors became more effective in prevention and treatment of the pneumonia that developed after the victims had contracted the virus. However, John Barry stated in his book that researchers have found no evidence to support this position.[11]
Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out[11] (see also "Deadly Second Wave", above).
...but I'll go with "burned out". It wasn't the radical measures we're seeing now that ended it. People were just a lot more phlegmatic about death from disease in those days, not a strategy I'd propose we adopt.
Thankfully after getting rid of a lot of mass speculation and idiot speak, we now seem to all understand the fundamentals of how to manage yourself and those around you.
Ye think? Town centre was full of pensioners going about their business as normal this morning, some with grandkids.
They're not getting it at all.
And the barber's was busy too. wtaf?
Granted. But. It’s a lot better than “not having a clue” surely?
Its not. You still need to self isolate the negatives because 1:5 are positive (and people may be less rigorous at doing so because they think they are probably safe). You have no different treatment to offer the positives. All it does is make you feel like you are doing something.
IF the current testing has a 99% Sensitivity (and a useful specificity) then it MIGHT be worth doing that with its typical 2 day turnaround; BUT I doubt there is absolutely robust data on how many of the negatives are truly negative? How many days after infection before its detectable, how robust is the sampling method (and training) etc - these things all have huge impact on the accuracy of testing.